2021-2022 Roster Speculation Thread, pt. 4

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TehDoak

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Sorry but this is more silliness


1) Cody Hodgson during the tank year -> 78gms 6g 13pts. There is zero chance anyone who gets a top 6 center role this season will be that bad. Probably not even our 3rd line center would be that bad.

2) Moulson was the top LW during the tank year (top line of Mouslon/Girgs/Ennis). Played the most 5v5 minutes of LWs (14+min), got top PP ice time, was out with goalie pulled, etc. All the favorable deployments to produce offense and he only scored 13 goals. YOU keep insisting Skinner will be the top line LW this year. He would blow Moulson’s 13 goals out of the water with a similar usage.

I'm comparing the rosters GOING INTO the season. My original post was someone claiming this wouldn't be the worst roster we've dressed in 10 years, and I was just pointing out that, going INTO 2014-15, that roster was better. I also said I don't see this team being WORSE than that roster because several players just fell off the map.

3) You’re arguing Cozens belongs in the AHL. We both know thats not true and a silly assertion.

I thought he was fine last year.....he still could use AHL time. Every single player, with rare exception, should spend time in the AHL. That's the norm for functioning teams. He does no harm to ride the bus and learning at the AHL level. That is exactly what Tampa did with almost all their players. We talk about the spoiled players and bad culture we are trying to fix? A lot of that is because they never had to fight for a spot, it was given to them. Sure, Cozens can play in the NHL, especially with our terrible forward group. What harm does playing in the AHL do him? None.

4) You’re take on Mitts not being NHL ready is, again, a silly stance. He’s development has been up and down. He’s played 155 NHL games over parts of 4 seasons. The last 20 of those games was as a top 6 center producing at a 30+g 60+pt pace. Thats a kid more than ready for the NHL and to get a shot as a full time top 6 center. We’ll find out if he can handle it (top 6 center) this year.

I've seen a whole lot more of Mittelstadt not being a NHL caliber player than we have of him being a legit NHL talent. You are right, he played good towards the end of last season....in a system with almost no back checking and where the games had zero consequence. It may has well been preseason for the Sabres at that point. I'm eager to see if he can take the next step, but it wouldn't be shocking at all if he struggles this year, especially with the lack of supporting cast.

5) You have to be kidding me lumping Tage, Bjork and Asplund and even Girgs with Eakin.

What was Bjork on Boston? A 4th liner who was rotated in and out of the lineup. On a team that didn't have great LW depth. On what teams are any of these players cracking the top 9? Asplund and Thompson are similar to Mittelstadt, we saw some growth towards the end of the season. But with their career production, where would they be on a good team? They wouldn't make the team, frankly, or they'd be a healthy scratch most nights. I'm not trying to be negative, I'm just realistic what their production at the NHL level dictates. Now, could any of these players have a great year next year? Absolutely. They are still young.

6) Where are you getting the idea that the tank team only finished with 54pts because Girgs got hurt and the trade deadline moves? Those two events happened around the same time (after GM#61 and GM#63 respectively) and the Sabres were on pace for only 56pts at the time. It didn’t take those events to make them a mid 50s team. They were built from the get go to be that bad. Ironically Girgs getting hurt led to Larsson taking over his role and he was a better.

You take the most extreme positions to be as negative as possible about this years roster. Even if the stance doesn’t make much sense.

The tank team was 13-16 in december that year. So, they weren't great, but they weren't the worst team in the league either. They lost a few to end December, went 0-January and the rest was history. Girgensons injury, Hodgson and Moulson dropping off the face of the planet, Murray actively sabotaging them (forcing Pysyk to play in Rochester when he was clearly an upgrade over what we had in the NHL, etc). Trading out NHL bodies (Myers/Stafford) for ones that couldn't play that year (Kane). And the endless goalie shuffle towards the end.

I don't think we are going to be a 54 point team this year. I'm just saying this years roster is comparable to that roster. I think we are probably a 60-70 point team if we don't get significant NHL pieces back for Eichel, which is a typical last place finish team.

I'm not trying to shit on this roster, the issue is that this is not a rebuild roster. This is not a tank roster. This is a cap floor roster. They are dressing it up like it's about giving the kids a chance....it's about the Pegula's cutting their losses. Every single move they have made this summer reinforces that. Now, the season is still months away, and maybe I'll be proven wrong. However, my expectation is this will be maybe 2-3M Over the cap floor, maybe less. There is zero reason for this roster to be this bad other than pure cheapness by the ownership.
 
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Sabreality

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X = Eakin, Malone, Oglevie Battle Royal

or just get Larry back
 
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sabremike

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or just get Larry back
That would be just about the single smartest move the team could make so it 100% isn't going to happen.
 

Lloydchristmas138

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Eakin, Sheahan?

Or God forbid..

Skinner-Eichel-Oloffson
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Asplund-Mitts-Thompson
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joshjull

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I'm comparing the rosters GOING INTO the season. My original post was someone claiming this wouldn't be the worst roster we've dressed in 10 years, and I was just pointing out that, going INTO 2014-15, that roster was better. I also said I don't see this team being WORSE than that roster because several players just fell off the map.



I thought he was fine last year.....he still could use AHL time. Every single player, with rare exception, should spend time in the AHL. That's the norm for functioning teams. He does no harm to ride the bus and learning at the AHL level. That is exactly what Tampa did with almost all their players. We talk about the spoiled players and bad culture we are trying to fix? A lot of that is because they never had to fight for a spot, it was given to them. Sure, Cozens can play in the NHL, especially with our terrible forward group. What harm does playing in the AHL do him? None.



I've seen a whole lot more of Mittelstadt not being a NHL caliber player than we have of him being a legit NHL talent. You are right, he played good towards the end of last season....in a system with almost no back checking and where the games had zero consequence. It may has well been preseason for the Sabres at that point. I'm eager to see if he can take the next step, but it wouldn't be shocking at all if he struggles this year, especially with the lack of supporting cast.



What was Bjork on Boston? A 4th liner who was rotated in and out of the lineup. On a team that didn't have great LW depth. On what teams are any of these players cracking the top 9? Asplund and Thompson are similar to Mittelstadt, we saw some growth towards the end of the season. But with their career production, where would they be on a good team? They wouldn't make the team, frankly, or they'd be a healthy scratch most nights. I'm not trying to be negative, I'm just realistic what their production at the NHL level dictates. Now, could any of these players have a great year next year? Absolutely. They are still young.



The tank team was 13-16 in december that year. So, they weren't great, but they weren't the worst team in the league either. They lost a few to end December, went 0-January and the rest was history. Girgensons injury, Hodgson and Moulson dropping off the face of the planet, Murray actively sabotaging them (forcing P
to play in Rochester when he was clearly an upgrade over what we had in the NHL, etc). Trading out (Myers/Stafford) for ones that couldn't play that year (Kane). And the endless goalie shuffle towards the end.

:laugh:

1) The mental gymnastics you’ve gone through with the 14-15 team has been entertaining. But as always its WAY off the mark.

The 14-15 is the worst roster we’ve iced in the last 10 years. I know this because their record, along with all the other seasons, can be looked up. Its an objective fact.

That you think they had greater potential is irrelevant and obviously subjective. But my favorite part of this argument is you keep trying to support it with easily disproven points about that crap 14-15 season.

The 14-15 team was on pace for 56pts at the time of Girgs injury/trade deadline. They ended up with 54 pts. Yet you keep arguing those two events prevented them from reaching this mythical potential or was the cause of them ending up in the mid 50s. The FACTS clearly say otherwise no matter how many times and different ways you bring them up.

They were 13-16-2 on Dec 15th. Then went 1-17-1 in the next 19 games and were 14-33-3 at the end of January. A month before the change in goalies, Girgs getting hurt and the trade deadline. In other words none of your usual excuses can be claimed as the reason for this. Just that they didn’t have the talent or coaching to maintain a near .500 level of play any longer than they did. That 13-16-2 record is no more representative of what that team was than Krueger having us in 1st place was.


I don't think we are going to be a 54 point team this year. I'm just saying this years roster is comparable to that roster. I think we are probably a 60-70 point team if we don't get significant NHL pieces back for Eichel, which is a typical last place finish team.

I'm not trying to shit on this roster, the issue is that this is not a rebuild roster. This is not a tank roster. This is a cap floor roster. They are dressing it up like it's about giving the kids a chance....it's about the Pegula's cutting their losses. Every single move they have made this summer reinforces that. Now, the season is still months away, and maybe I'll be proven wrong. However, my expectation is this will be maybe 2-3M Over the cap floor, maybe less. There is zero reason for this roster to be this bad other than pure cheapness by the ownership.

:facepalm:
 

joshjull

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The one key difference here is the the bolded forwards were all on a downward trajectory in their careers. Thompson, Asplund, Mitts, Cozens, and R2 are all on an upward swing and have yet to play their best hockey. Skinner, Girgensons, Okposo, Eakin, Bjork, Oloffson and Hinostroza have more in common with the 2014 forwards you mention, and I would argue the 2021 version is slightly better.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not too optimistic about the upcoming season, but this forward group has far more positive upside potential than anything the tank squad could muster.
I agree about the upside potential but that should include Skinner and Bjork.

I don’t think Skinner will ever be close to a 40 goal scorer again. But getting him away from Krueger should get him back into the 20 to 30 range. Bjork is someone who may do better with a bigger role and opportunity than he got in Boston.


I don’t think Girgs belongs in either group (on the rise or on the decline). he is what he is, a good defensive winger.
 

joshjull

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Stafford, Ennis, and Stewart were in their prime years.

Hodgson had a solid year the year before. Moulson and Gionta you are correct on, though, they were still productive leading up to this season.

As for the other forwards:

Thompson: 104 NHL games...15 goals, 11A, 26 points
Asplund: 57 NHL games: 8G, 6A
Mitts: 155 NHL games, 27G, 34A, 61 points
Cozens: 41 NHL games, 4G, 9 A
R2: 17 GP, 5G, 1 A

Thompson and Asplund would be healthy scratches on a good team. They simply have not shown enough at the NHL (or AHL even) level to justify a roster spot.

Mitts had an encouraging growth last year, but he's still mostly unknown. He could get 50 points he could get 25. We don't know.

Cozens should be in the AHL and earning a call up.

R2 can still be sent to rochester. Given the relative depth on the left side, I think that is where he may end up.

:

Why are we looking at career NHL numbers to determine if a player is NHL ready? Prospects are evaluated on their development year to year. What they did most recently is the best indicator of where they are.

Tage 38gms 8g 14pts (17g/30pt pace)
Asplund 28gms 7g 11pts (20g/32pt pace)

Thats with both coaches and not giving them the advantage of just Granato games where they produced at higher paces.

Both of them had production paces right in the wheel house of a middle 6 winger. But none of that matters in Doak world because Tage sucked in 18-19 and Asplund didn’t get an extend look before this season.

Mitts might have 25 points? We just don’t know? The same Mitts who was on pace for 20g and 40pts in his 41 games under both coaches and 33g and 61pts in 20gms as a top 6 center under Granato.


Many prospects take big leaps forward when they finally understand what it takes physical and mentally to be a NHL player. Others step up when finally given a chance to play regularly. In some cases both things are happening.


But in Doak world no prospects ever grow. They are zealously held to their first impression. But most importantly almost all Sabres prospects/youngsters suck and don’t belong in the NHL.
 
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KeyserSoze81

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Skinner-R2-VO
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X = Eakin, Malone, Oglevie Battle Royal

or just get Larry back

Larson costs too much, he probably wants Hinostroza money. Get me a player that will take the same contract we gave our starting goalie.
 

Matt Ress

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Are people still pushing the cheap ownership narrative?
They surprisingly spent to the cap last year and actually started the season with a pretty good roster on paper.
If the Sabres had even close to the same success of the Bills, they would happily spend money.
Apparently 5 years is enough to forget the renovation of downtown and narrow minded fixation on false reports of Austin while they pitch a quarter billion dollar contract to a player that, you know, actually deserves it. And a bunch to guys that don't deserve it.
They'll spend light this season because we're rebuilding and who wants to finish 15th? Meddling? Perhaps.
But it's mind blowing to forget the stability, perception, landscape and financial injection that the Pegulas have brought to the city.
 

TehDoak

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:laugh:

1) The mental gymnastics you’ve gone through with the 14-15 team has been entertaining. But as always its WAY off the mark.

The 14-15 is the worst roster we’ve iced in the last 10 years. I know this because their record, along with all the other seasons, can be looked up. Its an objective fact.

That you think they had greater potential is irrelevant and obviously subjective. But my favorite part of this argument is you keep trying to support it with easily disproven points about that crap 14-15 season.

The 14-15 team was on pace for 56pts at the time of Girgs injury/trade deadline. They ended up with 54 pts. Yet you keep arguing those two events prevented them from reaching this mythical potential or was the cause of them ending up in the mid 50s. The FACTS clearly say otherwise no matter how many times and different ways you bring them up.

They were 13-16-2 on Dec 15th. Then went 1-17-1 in the next 19 games and were 14-33-3 at the end of January. A month before the change in goalies, Girgs getting hurt and the trade deadline. In other words none of your usual excuses can be claimed as the reason for this. Just that they didn’t have the talent or coaching to maintain a near .500 level of play any longer than they did. That 13-16-2 record is no more representative of what that team was than Krueger having us in 1st place was.

:facepalm:

I'm not doing any mental gymnastics, on paper, going into the season, the forward group in 2014-15 is better than this group. They have more proven vets who were coming off at least passable seasons. And I've pointed out that the girgensons injury, along with goaltending, AND (and you keep ignoring this part) the fact that many forwards production just dropped off a cliff, mostly notably including Hodgson, who went from 44 pts to 9 pts.

Do I think this years team will be worse than the tank team? No

Do I think the roster, on paper, is at least on par with how bad the tank team was? Absolutely

Now, as I've said, this roster isn't finished yet. I am hoping 1-2 NHL Pieces come back in the Eichel trade. But as is, without Eichel, this is roster, especially the forward group, is every bit as bad as the tank team roster was.

I don't really think I'm saying anything controversial or hard to prove here.

Our leading scorers, based off of last year's point totals, over an 82 game season, would be:

Olofsson: 19G, 28A, 47 pts
Mittestadt, 20 G, 22A, 44P
Dahlin: 33 pts

That's right on par with the 2014-15 numbers for the Sabres

Ennis: 20G, 26 A, 46 pts
Moulson: 13G, 28A, 41 pts
Gionta: 13 G, 22 A, 35 pts

You are operating under the assumption that Mittelstadt, Thompson, Asplund, Cozens, etc will all take big steps forward next season, I simply don't think that is a given, especially given how devoid of talent the rest of the roster is. It's actually far more likely that their even strength scoring is about the same, with a little bump for a few guys who are going to get PP1 time that didn't last year.

I'm really not trying to get into an argument about this, I think its pretty clear this forward group is the worst I've ever seen for a Sabres team. Could players grow next season? Absolutely. Is it a given? 100% it is not.
 

joshjull

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I'm not doing any mental gymnastics, on paper, going into the season, the forward group in 2014-15 is better than this group. They have more proven vets who were coming off at least passable seasons. And I've pointed out that the girgensons injury, along with goaltending, AND (and you keep ignoring this part) the fact that many forwards production just dropped off a cliff, mostly notably including Hodgson, who went from 44 pts to 9 pts.

Hodgson is the only one who had his production unexpectedly fall off a cliff and it was due to an unknown health problem at the time.

Do I think this years team will be worse than the tank team? No

Do I think the roster, on paper, is at least on par with how bad the tank team was? Absolutely

Of course you think this. You’ve taken the stance that every Sabre prospect doesn’t belong in the NHL and all the vets are 4th liners or should be out of the NHL.

I mean this is a pretty ridiculous set of beliefs you have. I’m guessing you’re too far gone into hating the Sabres to rationally analyze anyone on the team.

Now, as I've said, this roster isn't finished yet. I am hoping 1-2 NHL Pieces come back in the Eichel trade. But as is, without Eichel, this is roster, especially the forward group, is every bit as bad as the tank team roster was.

I don't really think I'm saying anything controversial or hard to prove here.

I’d say not only have you said things that are controversial but you’ve posted some incredibly ignorant things about a lot of our players.

Our leading scorers, based off of last year's point totals, over an 82 game season, would be:

Olofsson: 19G, 28A, 47 pts
Mittestadt, 20 G, 22A, 44P
Dahlin: 33 pts

That's right on par with the 2014-15 numbers for the Sabres

Ennis: 20G, 26 A, 46 pts
Moulson: 13G, 28A, 41 pts
Gionta: 13 G, 22 A, 35 pts

:facepalm:

You are operating under the assumption that Mittelstadt, Thompson, Asplund, Cozens, etc will all take big steps forward next season, I simply don't think that is a given, especially given how devoid of talent the rest of the roster is. It's actually far more likely that their even strength scoring is about the same, with a little bump for a few guys who are going to get PP1 time that didn't last year.

Nope not at all. Maybe you’re confusing me defending them from some of your more ridiculous attacks with me saying they will all break out. I've repeatedly said we’ll find out what we have in these guys this season.


I'm really not trying to get into an argument about this, I think its pretty clear this forward group is the worst I've ever seen for a Sabres team. Could players grow next season? Absolutely. Is it a given? 100% it is not.

Its pretty obvious thats how YOU feel. But the arguments you’ve made to back that feeling up are pretty bad.
 
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debaser66

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I'm not doing any mental gymnastics, on paper, going into the season, the forward group in 2014-15 is better than this group. They have more proven vets who were coming off at least passable seasons. And I've pointed out that the girgensons injury, along with goaltending, AND (and you keep ignoring this part) the fact that many forwards production just dropped off a cliff, mostly notably including Hodgson, who went from 44 pts to 9 pts.

Do I think this years team will be worse than the tank team? No

Do I think the roster, on paper, is at least on par with how bad the tank team was? Absolutely

Now, as I've said, this roster isn't finished yet. I am hoping 1-2 NHL Pieces come back in the Eichel trade. But as is, without Eichel, this is roster, especially the forward group, is every bit as bad as the tank team roster was.

I don't really think I'm saying anything controversial or hard to prove here.

Our leading scorers, based off of last year's point totals, over an 82 game season, would be:

Olofsson: 19G, 28A, 47 pts
Mittestadt, 20 G, 22A, 44P
Dahlin: 33 pts

That's right on par with the 2014-15 numbers for the Sabres

Ennis: 20G, 26 A, 46 pts
Moulson: 13G, 28A, 41 pts
Gionta: 13 G, 22 A, 35 pts

You are operating under the assumption that Mittelstadt, Thompson, Asplund, Cozens, etc will all take big steps forward next season, I simply don't think that is a given, especially given how devoid of talent the rest of the roster is. It's actually far more likely that their even strength scoring is about the same, with a little bump for a few guys who are going to get PP1 time that didn't last year.

I'm really not trying to get into an argument about this, I think its pretty clear this forward group is the worst I've ever seen for a Sabres team. Could players grow next season? Absolutely. Is it a given? 100% it is not.
Reinhart was or leading scorer last season, also Eichel & Hall were here for significant time.
your comparison is manufactured to fit your narrative.
 

TehDoak

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Hodgson is the only one who had his production unexpectedly fall off a cliff and it was due to an unknown health problem at the time.

Moulson, Gionta, Stafford, and Stewart's production all fell year to year. Sure some weren't as severe as others, but they all scored at a better pace the year before

Of course you think this. You’ve taken the stance that every Sabre prospect doesn’t belong in the NHL and all the vets are 4th liners or should be out of the NHL.

Oloffson, Skinner, and Mittelstadt are middle six NHLers. After that, the production doesn't justify a top 9 forward placement (Asplund, Thompson, Bjork, R2) on most NHL teams. Okposo, Girgensons, Hizonostra, and Caggulia recent TOI say they are 4th liners. Cozens is probably a bit too young to make a fair judgement on, but I would like to see him get AHL time regardless unless he's clearly ahead of the pack during camp and earns a spot. The younger guys DO have upside, I'm just not confident that they are going to make as big of a jump as people are hoping for. Their NHL resume, to this point, isn't good.

I’d say not only have you said things that are controversial but you’ve posted some incredibly ignorant things about a lot of our players.

It's weird that its controversial to say guys who haven't scored more than 20 points in a single season in the NHL (Bjork, Thompson, Asplund, R2) don't have the production to justify a top 9 NHL role. Please take off the blue and gold goggles for one minute and look at the numbers.


Nope not at all. Maybe you’re confusing me defending them from some of your more ridiculous attacks with me saying they will all break out. I've repeatedly said we’ll find out what we have in these guys this season.

Its pretty obvious thats how YOU feel. But the arguments you’ve made to back that feeling up are pretty bad.

I don't feel that way at all. It's weird that expecting to more than 2 actual proven NHL wingers in your top 6 is somehow a bad argument. As of now, our top 6 wingers are:

Skinner-Mittelstadt-Oloffson
Bjork-Cozens-Thompson

That's bad.

Reinhart was or leading scorer last season, also Eichel & Hall were here for significant time.
your comparison is manufactured to fit your narrative.

I was pointing out the players who were left and what their scoring pace would be based off of last year. Yes their situation will be different, but their QoC will also be harder. I'm simply pointing out with who we have left, that is what our leading scorers would look like if they scored at a similar pace as last year
 

Dirty Dog

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Moulson, Gionta, Stafford, and Stewart's production all fell year to year. Sure some weren't as severe as others, but they all scored at a better pace the year before



Oloffson, Skinner, and Mittelstadt are middle six NHLers. After that, the production doesn't justify a top 9 forward placement (Asplund, Thompson, Bjork, R2) on most NHL teams. Okposo, Girgensons, Hizonostra, and Caggulia recent TOI say they are 4th liners. Cozens is probably a bit too young to make a fair judgement on, but I would like to see him get AHL time regardless unless he's clearly ahead of the pack during camp and earns a spot. The younger guys DO have upside, I'm just not confident that they are going to make as big of a jump as people are hoping for. Their NHL resume, to this point, isn't good.



It's weird that its controversial to say guys who haven't scored more than 20 points in a single season in the NHL (Bjork, Thompson, Asplund, R2) don't have the production to justify a top 9 NHL role. Please take off the blue and gold goggles for one minute and look at the numbers.




I don't feel that way at all. It's weird that expecting to more than 2 actual proven NHL wingers in your top 6 is somehow a bad argument. As of now, our top 6 wingers are:

Skinner-Mittelstadt-Oloffson
Bjork-Cozens-Thompson

That's bad.



I was pointing out the players who were left and what their scoring pace would be based off of last year. Yes their situation will be different, but their QoC will also be harder. I'm simply pointing out with who we have left, that is what our leading scorers would look like if they scored at a similar pace as last year

you are making the oddest argument.
 

Gabrielor

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Assuming my favorite scenario of a vegas trade with Krebs...


Our center spine is going to be oh so very young, and I'm not sure what to do about it.

Skinner Cozens <R.Smith>
Asplund Mittelstadt Olofsson
Bjork <Krebs> Ruotsalainen
Girgensons Hinostroza Thompson
Caggiula Okposo

I'm also trusting they'll waive Eakin.
 
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