2020 Playoffs - Potential 24 team tournament - can Habs make a run? Part 2

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

If the 8th placeholder wins the 1OV lottery, anybody wanna go Tanya Harding on Price?

 

[Deebs]

No

Thanks

 

[The Great Weal]

So our odds gets cut in half. That's pretty absurd. It makes no sense to me why all the teams that lose in the best of 5 get the same odds. Am I reading it wrong?

 

[CHfan1]

[MOD]

From the NHL website

picks No. 8-15 will be assigned to the teams that are eliminated from the Qualifying Round in inverse order of their point percentage.


2020 NHL Draft Lottery procedure

From their media release

When all Phase 1 and Phase 2 draws are completed and the Top 3 selections in the 2020 NHL Draft assigned, the remaining selections in the Top 15 will be assigned to the 12 teams that did not win a draw in inverse order of their points percentages at the time of the season’s pause.

NHL.com Media Site

 

[Locks]

According to the NHL’s official website they don’t pick in the top 15 if they beat the Penguins.

Wrong. I listened to Betman's presentation live and Bob's latest tweet confirms that. Teams that don't win any of the three lottery picks will draft in reverse order of winning percentage, or in simpler terms, as expected.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Weird that with everything announced theres no opportunity for the Habs to retain the 8th pick and beat Pittsburgh.

Never would have guessed based on all the information going around.

 

[CHfan1]

Wrong. I listened to Betman's presentation live and Bob's latest tweet confirms that. Teams that don't win any of the three lottery picks will draft in reverse order of winning percentage, or in simpler terms, as expected.

Are you saying the NHL’s official website and media release is wrong?

 

[Runner77]

Step 1. Put Lindgren in net.
Step 2. Make bad line-up decisions.
Step 3. Put bad match-ups out.

There's plenty of ways to stack the deck against your team and lose without the athletes throwing the game.

We already have two and three locked up just with our expected decision-making.

 

[sheed36]

It's not for the top 3 pick

It's a lottery to determine picks 8 to 15, if one of 8 to 15 wins a top 3 pick

They have since removed the odds I posted above from the original article on NHL.com. The way I understood the odds I posted above was that if a phase 2 draw were needed because a team not in the bottom 7 won one of the top 3 picks and a phase 2 draw were needed these were the odds the no qualifying teams had for that phase 2 draw.

Since they removed that part I guess someone screwed up while posting the article. As the lowest seed it sucks to have the same 12.5% chance as every other team if a phase to draw is needed for a possible top 3 pick. That is if I'm even understanding that part right since I'm slower than normal today it seems.

 

[JoelWarlord]

[MOD]
The play-in losers will be 8-15 based on lotto outcome/points percentage, and the play-in winners become normal playoff teams for draft purposes.

Oh look, the lottery will be 15 teams... not just the 7 who aren't in the play-ins.

So if Montreal loses to Pittsburgh, they still have a chance at Lafreniere? And if they win, they are in the playoffs.

Seems to me that's the best for everyone.

You have your 15 teams in the lottery and don't screw someone out of their chance for 1st overall (or 2nd, 3rd)

I'm sure this will produce people saying its unfair, but it seems fair from here.

This is exactly why the "chicken littles" were frustrated with this whole plan, because it's the only fair way to do it. It wouldn't be fair for Montreal to win their way into the playoffs and still pick 8th, which is why I was so frustrated from the moment they floated this because it was obvious we wouldn't pick 8th if we won.

Of course it's fair. I just think it's incredibly frustrating that all the Habs need to do to erase 70 games of dogshit is win a best of 5 after every team comes back ice cold from 4-6 months off.

 

[GordonGraham]

So our odds gets cut in half. That's pretty absurd. It makes no sense to me why all the teams that lose in the best of 5 get the same odds. Am I reading it wrong?

Cut in half cause you get a 1/24 shot at the cup

 

[The Great Weal]

Cut in half cause you get a 1/24 shot at the cup

With the same team that had a 1% chance of making it the usual way.

 

[Adam Michaels]

So let me see if I can understand this. On the 26th, they will hold a draft lottery as usual, which will include all teams that were not in the playoffs when the season ended. That includes Montreal, represented in the graph as Team A in 8th place. So right now, their chances of winning the lottery are at 6%, as they have been this entire time.

If any of the teams from 1 to 7 wins the lottery, then they won't need to go to Phase 2. But that would also mean that Team A (MTL in this case) will pick 8th if they lose to Pens.

What I'm not sure I understand is that if an unassigned team wins picks 1-3 on the 26th, how do they proceed to Phase 2 of the draft lottery? So hypothetically, if Team A wins the lottery, do they keep the pick they won on the 26th draft lottery? Or do they reshuffle the board after the play-in when the unassigned teams are assigned?

I know that if Montreal beats Pittsburgh and enters the playoffs, then they pick between 16th to 31st.

But if they lose, their either picking 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 9th, 10th or 11th?

 

[Eggbeater]

According to a post from reddit:

1st lottery:

Team	odds
Detroit	18.5%
Ottawa	13,5%
San Jose (Ott)	11.5%
Los Angeles	9.5%
Anaheim	8.5%
New jersey	7.5%
Buffalo	6.5%
Team A	6%
Team B	5%
Team C	3.5%
Team D	3%
Team E	2.5%
Team F	2.0%
Team G	1.5%
Team F	1%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Assuming Team A-F in win the 1st overall, a second lottery will take place with each play in losing team in it (without the bottom 7 team in the league)

2nd lottery:

Team	odds
Montreal	12.5%
Team B	12.5%
Team C	12.5%
Team D	12.5%
Team E	12.5%
Team F	12.5%
Team G	12.5%
Team F	12.5%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Adam Michaels]

 

[CHfan1]

So let me see if I can understand this. On the 26th, they will hold a draft lottery as usual, which will include all teams that were not in the playoffs when the season ended. That includes Montreal, represented in the graph as Team A in 8th place. So right now, their chances of winning the lottery are at 6%, as they have been this entire time.

If any of the teams from 1 to 7 wins the lottery, then they won't need to go to Phase 2. But that would also mean that Team A (MTL in this case) will pick 8th if they lose to Pens.

What I'm not sure I understand is that if an unassigned team wins picks 1-3 on the 26th, how do they proceed to Phase 2 of the draft lottery? So hypothetically, if Team A wins the lottery, do they keep the pick they won on the 26th draft lottery? Or do they reshuffle the board after the play-in when the unassigned teams are assigned?

I know that if Montreal beats Pittsburgh and enters the playoffs, then they pick between 16th to 31st.

But if they lose, their either picking 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 9th, 10th or 11th?

Phase 2 would be conducted between the qualifying and first round. It would be a lottery with the 8 teams eliminated in the qualifying round. Each eliminated team would get equal odds (12.5%).

You’re correct on where the Habs could pick if they lose the play in series.

 

[Locks]

Not true. The play-in losers will be 8-15 based on lotto outcome/points percentage, and the play-in winners become normal playoff teams for draft purposes.


This is exactly why the "chicken littles" were frustrated with this whole plan, because it's the only fair way to do it. It wouldn't be fair for Montreal to win their way into the playoffs and still pick 8th, which is why I was so frustrated from the moment they floated this because it was obvious we wouldn't pick 8th if we won.

Of course it's fair. I just think it's incredibly frustrating that all the Habs need to do to erase 70 games of dogshit is win a best of 5 after every team comes back ice cold from 4-6 months off.

Yes, I just read the full document and it says that, as it applies to our case, the Habs will be deemed a playoff team if they beat Pens so they will draft 16th. Still, in the most likely outcome, they will lose to the Pens gaining valuable experience in the process, retain the 8th pick and participate in the possible second lottery draw. That's not too bad

 

[Runner77]

2020 NHL Draft Lottery procedure

 

[Nephasted]

So if i understand... If the Habs win the lottery ans beats pittsburgh in the first round... Pittsburgh draft 1st?

 

[Eggbeater]

According to a post from Reddit. This is provided we lose against Pittsburgh as far as I can understand.

1st lottery:

Team	odds
Detroit	18.5%
Ottawa	13,5%
San Jose (Ott)	11.5%
Los Angeles	9.5%
Anaheim	8.5%
New jersey	7.5%
Buffalo	6.5%
Team A	6%
Team B	5%
Team C	3.5%
Team D	3%
Team E	2.5%
Team F	2.0%
Team G	1.5%
Team F	1%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Assuming Team A-F in win the 1st overall, a second lottery will take place with each play in losing team in it (without the bottom 7 team in the league)

2nd lottery:

Team	odds
Montreal	12.5%
Team B	12.5%
Team C	12.5%
Team D	12.5%
Team E	12.5%
Team F	12.5%
Team G	12.5%
Team F	12.5%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Tuggy]

Brian Burke just went off on the idea of players being away from their families on Tim & Sid

He made very good points...I'll have to get a video later.

Basically saying that they've had 3-4 months at home and the majority of teams/players won't be gone in quarantine long from their families. Each round more and more teams get eliminated.

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

I'm putting money down on the Habs beating Pittsburgh then getting swept in round 1.

Nah, won't happen. I refuse to believe it.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

They have since removed the odds I posted above from the original article on NHL.com. The way I understood the odds I posted above was that if a phase 2 draw were needed because a team not in the bottom 7 won one of the top 3 picks and a phase 2 draw were needed these were the odds the no qualifying teams had for that phase 2 draw.

Since they removed that part I guess someone screwed up while posting the article. As the lowest seed it sucks to have the same 12.5% chance as every other team if a phase to draw is needed for a possible top 3 pick. That is if I'm even understanding that part right since I'm slower than normal today it seems.

Phase 2 is not for the top 3 pick, it's a lottery for picks 8 through 15.

Phase 1 determines the top 3 pick

 

[Adam Michaels]

Phase 2 would be conducted between the qualifying and first round. It would be a lottery with the 8 teams eliminated in the qualifying round. Each eliminated team would get equal odds (12.5%).

You’re correct on where the Habs could pick if they lose the play in series.

Okay, so despite being unassigned, we know right now, Habs are Team A in 8th place with a 6% chance of winning the lottery. IF Team A ends up with picks 1-3, the NHL will proceed to Phase 2. I imagine Phase 2 erases everything from the first lottery and will hold another draft lottery from scratch but the odds to win it have increased.

 

[Adam Michaels]

Phase 2 is not for the top 3 pick, it's a lottery for picks 8 through 15.

Phase 1 determines the top 3 pick

So if Team A (MTL right now) wins picks 1-3, they hold onto it no matter what, right?

If Montreal loses to Pittsburgh, they will be Team A.

So if a Phase 2 is required, then the 12.5% odds increase is for picking as high as 4th.