2020 Playoffs - Potential 24 team tournament - can Habs make a run? Part 2

[CHfan1]

Media releases below with the details on the format and draft.

NHL.com Media Site

Click to read more...

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Hmmm I would hope that you are right, honestly. We would be likely be 8th, yes, but we'd only have the same odds as the others of entering the top 3

However, if any of the three draws are won by a placeholder team, a Phase 2 lottery will take place before the conference quarterfinal. In this lottery, only the eight teams eliminated in the qualifying round will be involved and each of them will have the same odds to move into the top three (12.5 per cent).

NHL announces plans for return to play, 2020 draft lottery - Sportsnet.ca

Ok, but that part is for picks 8 to 15, not for the top 3

It screws us over if we don't win a top 3 pick.

And if no team outside of the top 7 wins, we autokeep our 8th

 

[Canadienna]

Hard to figure this all out...

So if we beat the Pens, we will be drafting at lowest 16?

That's completely f***ed up, the way they were playing they were going to be in line for a top 5 pick.

 

[sheed36]

They all get the same percentage just for the draw because they considered equal. After the draw it goes back to point %

Ok but I don't see this equal 12.5% chance for all the teams that lose their play in round listed anywhere in that NHL.com article about how the draft lottery procedure will go. I only see the different odds I quoted from the article for if there's a Phase 2 draw required.

 

[CHfan1]

Ok but I don't see this equal 12.5% chance for all the teams that lose their play in round listed anywhere in that NHL.com article about how the draft lottery procedure will go. I only see the different odds I quoted from the article for if there's a Phase 2 draw required.

At the bottoms of the linked page

* In each Phase 2 draw, all participants will have the same odds.

NHL.com Media Site

 

[llamateizer]

24.5% chance that teams 8-15 wins 1st overall.
Ottawa has 25% winning 1st overall

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Ok but I don't see this equal 12.5% chance for all the teams that lose their play in round listed anywhere in that NHL.com article about how the draft lottery procedure will go. I only see the different odds I quoted from the article for if there's a Phase 2 draw required.

1- if Habs win against the Pens, auto 16th pick

Habs lose to pens:

2- if all top 3 picks are won by the bottom 7, Habs get the 8th

3- if any team 8-15th wins a top 3 pick, habs are in another lottery with equal 1/8 odds to determine picks 8 to 15

4- habs win a top 3 pick

Options 1 and 3 suck donkey ball

Edit: okay, we have the best odds for tge 8-15 lottery, so option 3 isn't that bad.

 

[Gustave]

Treat me like the dumbest person alive;
Do the Habs still have a shot in the draft lottery to get the first overall pick, yes or no.

 

[MrNasty]

They should really break down this lottery info into simple point form explanation. Or make some kind of flow chart LOL

 

[Locks]

Updated version after reading the document.

If Habs lose to the Pens in play-in round, they obviously retain their 8(9,10,11) but still are eligible for the lottery provided a placeholder team - placed 8 to 15 - will win one of the top three positions. The only penalty they pay is that the adds of winning first overall will be reduced to about 3 percent from original 6 percent. That's a small price to pay for, in the very least, give the young guys the all so valuable playoff experience.

If they win, it is pick 16 and playoff participation.
.

 

[llamateizer]

The odds for each losing team in the Qualifying Round for the first drawing of the Second Phase, determined by inverse order of regular-season point percentage:
Team A -- 24.5 percent
Team B -- 20.4 percent
Team C -- 14.3 percent
Team D -- 12.2 percent
Team E -- 10.2 percent
Team F -- 8.2 percent
Team G -- 6.1 percent
Team H -- 4.1 percent

2020 NHL Draft Lottery procedure

So we have more odds than other teams in the 2nd phase lottery?

Edit: Seems like they removed this part from the article

NHL.com Media Site

* In each Phase 2 draw, all participants will have the same odds.

 

[sheed36]

Why would the Phase 2 lottery not have weighted odds like in Phase 1 based on points percentage?

We’re getting screwed as usual.

That's what I'm trying to figure out. Apparently from what I've read here if a team out of the bottom 7 wins any of the top 3 picks and a phase 2 draw is needed all losers in the qualifying round have the same 12.5% odds of winning these top 3 picks. Yet in the NHL.com article it says this concerning if a phase 2 draw is needed.

The odds for each losing team in the Qualifying Round for the first drawing of the Second Phase, determined by inverse order of regular-season point percentage, will be as follows:
Team A -- 24.5 percent
Team B -- 20.4 percent
Team C -- 14.3 percent
Team D -- 12.2 percent
Team E -- 10.2 percent
Team F -- 8.2 percent
Team G -- 6.1 percent
Team H -- 4.1 percent

I don't see this equal 12.5% chance listed anywhere in that NHL.com article.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Treat me like the dumbest person alive;
Do the Habs still have a shot in the draft lottery to get the first overall pick, yes or no.

Yes, if they lose against Pittsburgh

Same odds they had before as 8th place.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Treat me like the dumbest person alive;
Do the Habs still have a shot in the draft lottery to get the first overall pick, yes or no.

Yes, if they lose in the play-in, and the 1st overall pick is not won by a bottom 7 team.

 

[llamateizer]

I just hope we won't know the results BEFORE the qualifying round.

Imagine knowing that teams 8-15 have 1st overall picks before playing the qualifying round

 

[ahmedou]

 

[Locks]

Treat me like the dumbest person alive;
Do the Habs still have a shot in the draft lottery to get the first overall pick, yes or no.

Yes, if they lose to the Pens but their adds is reduced to 3% from 6%

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

That's what I'm trying to figure out. Apparently from what I've read here if a team out of the bottom 7 wins any of the top 3 picks and a phase 2 draw is needed all losers in the qualifying round have the same 12.5% odds of winning these top 3 picks. Yet in the NHL.com article it says this concerning if a phase 2 draw is needed.

The odds for each losing team in the Qualifying Round for the first drawing of the Second Phase, determined by inverse order of regular-season point percentage, will be as follows:
Team A -- 24.5 percent
Team B -- 20.4 percent
Team C -- 14.3 percent
Team D -- 12.2 percent
Team E -- 10.2 percent
Team F -- 8.2 percent
Team G -- 6.1 percent
Team H -- 4.1 percent

I don't see this equal 12.5% chance listed anywhere in that NHL.com article.

It's not for the top 3 pick

It's a lottery to determine picks 8 to 15, if one of 8 to 15 wins a top 3 pick

 

[sheed36]

At the bottoms of the linked page

* In each Phase 2 draw, all participants will have the same odds.

NHL.com Media Site

But that wasn't listed on the first NHL.com article detailing the draft lottery procedure.

 

[llamateizer]

Treat me like the dumbest person alive;
Do the Habs still have a shot in the draft lottery to get the first overall pick, yes or no.

ok little turkey boy

Yes they have a shot.

1. Detroit Red Wings		18.5%
2. Ottawa Senators		13.5%
3. Ottawa Senators*		11.5%
4. Los Angeles Kings		9.5%
5. Anaheim Ducks		8.5%
6. New Jersey Devils		7.5%
7. Buffalo Sabres		6.5%
8. Teams 8-15		24%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

habs are in teams 8-15.

in order to be in teams 8-15, you have to lose the qualifying round best of 5 (habs vs pitts)

habs gets eliminated along with 7 other teams (4 each conference).

at that point each team (teams 8-15) will have same odd chances of winning the 1st overall.

So, in reality habs have 3% chance of winning the 1st overall

 

[CHfan1]

As I stated in the other thread last night after Bob tweets.
First, yes Habs do retain their 8th pick - or it could be 9th pick if one of the teams who lose in the play-in round wins one of the top three spots - even if they actually beat the Pens and advance. In theory, it could be a 10th or 11th pick but that's highly unlikely.

If they lose to the Pens in play-in round, they obviously retain their 8(9,10,11) but still are eligible for the lottery provided a placeholder team - placed 8 to 15 - will win one of the top three positions. The only penalty they pay is that the adds of winning first overall will be reduced to about 3 percent from original 6 percent. That's a small price to pay for, in the very least, give the young guys the all so valuable playoff experience.

There has been lots of anxiety over potentially losing the 8th pick and it is all for nothing. I am very happy how it has turned out for the Habs - we get to keep the pick, we get a chance for playoffs and to get the kids that expirience and even a lottery participation in case the team does not advance.

According to the NHL’s official website they don’t pick in the top 15 if they beat the Penguins.

 

[McGees]

no.

 

[Deebs]

Can we win the lottery and win the cup?

 

[Hins77]

This is suck. Montreal will begin it this tournament like a lion and they will win against penguins, theirs youngs gun will beat theirs old vets. After this serie, montreal gonna lose, and in the same time lose their 8th selection at the draft. I hate it. I already put a cross on this season and now i learn this by the league. Wow

 

[CHfan1]

Can we win the lottery and win the cup?

No