HF Habs: 2020 Montreal Canadiens Off-Season Thread part 3

[Kriss E]

Three counterarguments:

1) GF/60 and GA/60 are mostly a glorified form if the +/-, they suffer from several issues such as not accounting for luck. In this case, the Habs had some very bad luck this year with several stretches of bad goaltending. That shows up in the PDO of the players. Mete was one of the luckiest players on the Habs with a PDO of 101.1. He was actually the luckiest of all of the regulars. In contrast, Ben Chiarot had average PDO for the Habs, 98.9. A full 2.2 points lower than Mete.

2) You ignore the contributions that those players make while on the bench. For example, Chiarot gave 152 hits last year, Mete gave 20. The impact of those hits is cumulative throughout the game and continues after the player leaves the ice, since the opposing players are more fatigued.

3) Chiarot can play on the PK, which provides some rest to the other D. There are only three pairings of defensemen, which means that ideally every defenseman needs to play on either the PK or PP. Mete is a 5on5 specialist which creates a puzzle for the coach.

Neither player belong on a top pairing imo.

 

[DAChampion]

Neither player belong on a top pairing imo.

Agreed.

The real threat to Chiarot's spot is from Romanov or Juulsen of they can put it together.

 

[ahmedou]

 

[Habby4Life]

Agreed.

The real threat to Chiarot's spot is from Romanov or Juulsen of they can put it together.

Juulsen is another year from being moved on. Unfortunately, injuries have hampered his development and he is too low on the depth chart. I don’t see him as anything more than a 5th or 6th D.

 

[DAChampion]

Juulsen is another year from being moved on. Unfortunately, injuries have hampered his development and he is too low on the depth chart. I don’t see him as anything more than a 5th or 6th D.

Juulsen definitely had the talent to be a two-way top-four defenseman, I hope that he recovers.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Three counterarguments:

1) GF/60 and GA/60 are mostly a glorified form if the +/-, they suffer from several issues such as not accounting for luck. In this case, the Habs had some very bad luck this year with several stretches of bad goaltending. That shows up in the PDO of the players. Mete was one of the luckiest players on the Habs with a PDO of 101.1. He was actually the luckiest of all of the regulars. In contrast, Ben Chiarot had average PDO for the Habs, 98.9. A full 2.2 points lower than Mete.

2) You ignore the contributions that those players make while on the bench. For example, Chiarot gave 152 hits last year, Mete gave 20. The impact of those hits is cumulative throughout the game and continues after the player leaves the ice, since the opposing players are more fatigued.

3) Chiarot can play on the PK, which provides some rest to the other D. There are only three pairings of defensemen, which means that ideally every defenseman needs to play on either the PK or PP. Mete is a 5on5 specialist which creates a puzzle for the coach.

1) so Mete was lucky both years? Lucky in the year we got bad goaltending, the same year Chiarot got "unlucky" on the same pairing? Is it bad goaltending or the goaltender being badly supported? Weber-Mete were 16-7 (+9) before Mete got injured and demoted this season. So you're telling me that on almost a thousand minutes played with Weber, it's just that he's lucky?
Goaltender save percentage will change depending not only on the goalie, but the friggin dmen that defend him ffs.

Anyway, PDO can't account for almost a 1.50 GA DIFFERENCE on 1700 minutes of play. You don't seem to appreciate the SIGNIFICANT difference in goals allowed. According to you, it's all on Price and luck. It explains 1.50 goals allowed more per 60 minutes.

2- in the same manner, you ignore how having a better transition allows your goalie to rest more and yaddi yaddi yadda. You're grasping at straws to justify a horrid output. No matter the intangibles, he can do those things from another pairing, while not letting the team allow as many goals. Those hits are far from being as significant as ALLOWING A TON OF GOALS.

3) you do realize we spend three quarters of a game at evenstrenght? The original argument is over the Chiarot-Weber pairing. Usually, when we write those, it's about ES pairings.... Even if Mete is used with Weber at ES, it doesn't stop the coach from using Chiarot with Weber on the PP? What a ridiculous argument. I'd rather have the ES "specialist" who'll better complete Weber's pairing, making us allow a lot less goals in the 45 minutes out of 60 that matter just as much.

I'll add that, as a player who played as a 19, 20 and 21 years old, we have yet to see what a fully developed Mete will be like on the PP and PK.

 

[DAChampion]

1) so Mete was lucky both years? Lucky in the year we got bad goaltending, the same year Chiarot got "unlucky" on the same pairing? Is it bad goaltending or the goaltender being badly supported? Weber-Mete were 16-7 (+9) before Mete got injured and demoted this season. So you're telling me that on almost a thousand minutes played with Weber, it's just that he's lucky?
Goaltender save percentage will change depending not only on the goalie, but the friggin dmen that defend him ffs.

Anyway, PDO can't account for almost a 1.50 GA DIFFERENCE on 1700 minutes of play. You don't seem to appreciate the SIGNIFICANT difference in goals allowed. According to you, it's all on Price and luck. It explains 1.50 goals allowed more per 60 minutes.

2- in the same manner, you ignore how having a better transition allows your goalie to rest more and yaddi yaddi yadda. You're grasping at straws to justify a horrid output. No matter the intangibles, he can do those things from another pairing, while not letting the team allow as many goals. Those hits are far from being as significant as ALLOWING A TON OF GOALS.

3) you do realize we spend three quarters of a game at evenstrenght? The original argument is over the Chiarot-Weber pairing. Usually, when we write those, it's about ES pairings.... Even if Mete is used with Weber at ES, it doesn't stop the coach from using Chiarot with Weber on the PP? What a ridiculous argument. I'd rather have the ES "specialist" who'll better complete Weber's pairing, making us allow a lot less goals in the 45 minutes out of 60 that matter just as much.

I'll add that, as a player who played as a 19, 20 and 21 years old, we have yet to see what a fully developed Mete will be like on the PP and PK.

Yes, Mete was lucky. He was specifically the luckiest Habs regular in the regular season last year, with the highest PDO among the regular players. It's not a fluke, every team will have one player who is the luckiest on the roster, and you're specifically zeroing on the stats that emphasize luck.

In contrast,Mete had median PDO luck in the playoffs, and thus he didn't stand out.

Chiarot allowing a ton of goals is mostly due to the Habs having .905 goaltending last year.

Saying that 70% of the game is played at even strength is a misuse of statistics. Because an even larger fraction of goals are scored on special teams, and after that, an even larger fraction of the variance in goals scored is from special teams. To do statistics correctly, one has to weight the ice time by the variance.

But the ice time is relevant from a perspective of player fatigue and roster management. There are only three D pairings, so every single defensemen needs to contribute either to the PP or to the PK.

Aa for Mete being young, if he develops offensive ability he should have a long term career.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Yes, Mete was lucky. He was specifically the luckiest Habs regular in the regular season last year, with the highest PDO among the regular players. It's not a fluke, every team will have one player who is the luckiest on the roster, and you're specifically zeroing on the stats that emphasize luck.

In contrast,Mete had median PDO luck in the playoffs, and thus he didn't stand out.

Chiarot allowing a ton of goals is mostly due to the Habs having .905 goaltending last year.

Saying that 70% of the game is played at even strength is a misuse of statistics. Because an even larger fraction of goals are scored on special teams, and after that, an even larger fraction of the variance in goals scored is from special teams. To do statistics correctly, one has to weight the ice time by the variance.

But the ice time is relevant from a perspective of player fatigue and roster management. There are only three D pairings, so every single defensemen needs to contribute either to the PP or to the PK.

Aa for Mete being young, if he develops offensive ability he should have a long term career.

You do understand that PDO is simply based on shot percentage, and Mete was 16GF 7GA with Weber in almost 300 minutes of play this same season, the very same season you argue over Chiarot.

PDO is NOT a marker of luck, but of differential of save percentage vs team average. What it simply shows is that a Mete-Weber pairing is better at limiting dangerous shots and that's exactly what the shot charts demonstrate vs Chiarot. Working in statistics might've made you blind the behavior of dynamic components, like say, changing between two players with different attributes and the relative impact they will have on their goalie's save percentage.

Do yourself a favor and look at Mete's PDO, with and without Weber, do the same for Weber. You'll see variations. If it was simply luck, Mete's numbers would be a constant, it's not. The both have great PDOs together because they limit dangerous shots.

For someone who droned on and on against advanced stats, I find your stance pretty hypocritical, to say the least.

 

[DAChampion]

You do understand that PDO is simply based on shot percentage, and Mete was 16GF 7GA with Weber in almost 300 minutes of play this same season, the very same season you argue over Chiarot.

PDO is NOT a marker of luck, but of differential of save percentage vs team average. What it simply shows is that a Mete-Weber pairing is better at limiting dangerous shots and that's exactly what the shot charts demonstrate vs Chiarot. Working in statistics might've made you blind the behavior of dynamic components, like say, changing between two players with different attributes and the relative impact they will have on their goalie's save percentage.

Do yourself a favor and look at Mete's PDO, with and without Weber, do the same for Weber. You'll see variations. If it was simply luck, Mete's numbers would be a constant, it's not. The both have great PDOs together because they limit dangerous shots.

For someone who droned on and on against advanced stats, I find your stance pretty hypocritical, to say the least.

There's been a lot of work showing that PDO is primarily a luck-based stats. Btw the same is true of +/- types stats like GA/60.

Am I going to spend hours going through the games that Weber and Mete were together to see who was in nets that day, what the SV%, who was injured, etc? No of course not. Are you serious?

Lol at the personal attack. You're very defensive of Mete -- why? Even if he's everything that you say that he is the he might become a number 4 on an average team. This isn't an interesting hill to due on.

As for what I know about stats, I know that blindly plotting Y vs X or cherry picking comparisons is totally useless. I also know that GA/60 and GF/60 are not great stats -- I've seen people blasting +/- for over a decade. The argument has been made and is convincing.

We do know that Mete's PDO regressed to the mean in the playoffs -- a higher mean weight sample -- and thus he was unremarkable.

I'll stick to my conclusion, for Mete to have a great NHL career he'll need to develop a genuine offensive game, and become competent on at least one special team.

And I'll acknowledge that he will have one significant advantage over Chiarot this year -- a substantially lower cap hit.

PS are you willing to predict that Mete will again lead Habs regulars for PDO next year? Your odds are about 1/18.

 

[Luigi Habs]

Nick Cousins is a FA. Bring him back!!

 

[Vachon23]

Frederick Gauthier is FA. I would sign him as 13th forward

 

[Sterling Archer]

Frederick Gauthier is FA. I would sign him as 13th forward

Gauthier, Leafs answer to McCarron.

 

[CHfan1]

Agreed.

The real threat to Chiarot's spot is from Romanov or Juulsen of they can put it together.

I’m not expecting it, but it would be great to see Romanov in his rookie season playing good enough to move himself into the top 4, moving Edmundson into a bottom pairing role. I really think KK, Suzuki, Romanov, and Anderson taking a step forward is what is going to move this franchise forward.

 

[1909]

Gauthier, Leafs answer to McCarron.

A touch better than McCarron. A bigger DLR, I would say. Could be interesting at a low price.

 

[Sterling Archer]

A touch better than McCarron. A bigger DLR, I would say. Could be interesting at a low price.

I’d rather have Weal as the 13th fwd tbh.

 

[Richiebottles]

Jankowski incoming.

I actually think it would be a perfect fit as a 4C

 

[admiralcadillac]

Is Jankowski (not qualified) worth a flyer? Big body seems to play on the pk and can pot some amount of goals.

Jankowski incoming.

I actually think it would be a perfect fit as a 4C

Wizard

 

[Deebs]

Nick Cousins is a FA. Bring him back!!

As depth guy and at the right price, I'd have minimal issue with him coming back. Knows the system and scheme, knows the players, good team guy...

 

[Zorba]

As depth guy and at the right price, I'd have minimal issue with him coming back. Knows the system and scheme, knows the players, good team guy...

Lol. We can’t score and you’re worried about the 4th line
Love it

 

[Supersonic]

Nick Cousins is a FA. Bring him back!!

While I agree I liked Cousins playing with VGK in the bottom 6, he is best buds with Domi and doubt he signs here now.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Coming off a 23 goals 40 pt season

 

[Gravity]

Jankowski incoming.

I actually think it would be a perfect fit as a 4C

We have a 4C: Jake Evans.

 

[TopTenPlayz]

With a flat cap, it'll be very hard to gain fair value for Tatar. Another reason why Bergevin should have traded him way long ago.

 

[Adam Michaels]

The Habs' 2020 Draft seems to have come to an end:

1st Round
16th - Kaiden Guhle

2nd Round
47th - Luke Tuch
48th - Jan Mysak

4th Round
102nd - Jack Smith
109th - Blake Biondi
124th - Sean Farrell

5th Round
136th - Jakub Dobes

6th Round
171st - Alexander Gordin

 

[A Loyal Dog]

So which UFA will MTL go for? I say we're going for Cousins and maybe Simmonds lol.

Do you know what's weird? I completely forgot about Cousins. I thought we'd traded him years ago.