Red Sox/MLB 2020 Hot Stove VII - The Mookie dilemma: Red Sox face franchise-changing decision

[Smitty93]

Sure, there is.

I love Mookie. But the Red Sox aren't likely to compete in 2020, and Mookie has shown no indication that he's interested in staying in Boston beyond this year.

The only thing worse than losing Mookie would be losing him and getting nothing in return.

Yeah, it's a terrible idea to keep Mookie for one last season and you're not set up to compete (and they're not).

If he's on the roster the day after the trade deadline and they're not in playoff position, then they have to pay whatever it takes to keep him. Even if it's ridiculous (because there's probably a number where he would have to stay even if he didn't want to.) Otherwise, it's a catastrophic mistake. One that Bloom probably wouldn't be able to overcome.

 

[smithformeragent]

I don’t really care one way or another about Betts.

However, what’s one year of Betts worth in terms of compensation when you can have him for just cash after the season?

From the Red Sox perspective, look at what happened with the Nationals and Bryce Harper. You can argue that the money it would cost to sign Betts is better utilized spread out among two or three players instead.

What if letting Betts wall means a replacement player, plus a starting pitcher and a quality arm in the bullpen?

How much dead money do they have tied up in the next season plus? Is Sandoval off the books? How much longer is Pedroia under contract? At some point, these things catch up with you.

 

[Top Shelf Wrister]

The point of all that is: Why would we want to get rid of so much salary? What is the point of freeing up so much money and cap room if anyone you pay from the market will be worse than Price and especially Betts?

This is exactly what happened after they lowballed Jon Lester. Had to overpay for David Price after publicly announcing long term contracts to pitchers 30 years old was something they didnt want to do.

 

[Seidenbergy]

Sure, there is.

I love Mookie. But the Red Sox aren't likely to compete in 2020, and Mookie has shown no indication that he's interested in staying in Boston beyond this year.

The only thing worse than losing Mookie would be losing him and getting nothing in return.

He's also shown no indication that he's NOT interested in staying in Boston beyond this year.....unless of course you are counting his rejection of below market offers as him wanting out. That would be a mistake however.

 

[Smitty93]

I don’t really care one way or another about Betts.

However, what’s one year of Betts worth in terms of compensation when you can have him for just cash after the season?

From the Red Sox perspective, look at what happened with the Nationals and Bryce Harper. You can argue that the money it would cost to sign Betts is better utilized spread out among two or three players instead.

What if letting Betts wall means a replacement player, plus a starting pitcher and a quality arm in the bullpen?

How much dead money do they have tied up in the next season plus? Is Sandoval off the books? How much longer is Pedroia under contract? At some point, these things catch up with you.

This is exactly what happened after they lowballed Jon Lester. Had to overpay for David Price after publicly announcing long term contracts to pitchers 30 years old was something they didnt want to do.

I think @Top Shelf Wrister 's point about Lester is exactly the reason why we can't just think this way.

This ownership group has a history of radically changing direction every couple of years, at least since Theo Epstein left. I trust Bloom that he would make a smart decision with the money, but can we really say with any certainty that Henry, or more likely Werner, won't come back a year later and decide to overpay someone for the marketing opportunity trying to compensate for losing Betts? If there's anything we know about them, it's that they're super reactionary.

I also don't know if Harper is a great comparison, as he's always been more flash than substance. He wasn't the undisputed best player on the Nationals, like Betts is for the Red Sox. WAR is not the be-all and end-all, but Harper's averaged 4.7 WAR per 162 games, while Betts has averaged 8.6. By that measure, Betts is almost twice the player Harper is, but he's not going to cost twice as much, right?

 

[DKH]

I realize the roster is garbage but as long as they don’t lose 100 games I’m good

Maybe the weakest lineup since the 1961 Mets

 

[YouTakeTheVan]

How much dead money do they have tied up in the next season plus? Is Sandoval off the books? How much longer is Pedroia under contract? At some point, these things catch up with you.

Agreed.

Spend wildly. Cry poor. Spend wildly. Cry poor.

Cry me a river is more like it. The Sox have a huge budget and can afford to re-sign all of their star players through their prime years (not middle infielders to 38). If they don't, it's because of mismanagement, pure and simple. No, they don't get to sign a half dozen star players ... or mediocre players ... from other teams too, and expect to be under the luxury tax.

 

[DKH]

Red Sox have the best 1-4 I’ve seen since the 1975-6 Reds and they are whining like bitchas

hilarious

Betts
Devers
Bogearts
Martinez

Vs

Rose
Griffey Sr
Morgan
Bench

 

[LouJersey]

Red Sox have the best 1-4 I’ve seen since the 1975-6 Reds and they are whining like *****as

hilarious

Betts
Devers
Bogearts
Martinez

Vs

Rose
Griffey Sr
Morgan
Bench

Will be topped by the Billionaire Mets in 2023

Betts
Lindor
Judge
Alonso

 

[Smitty93]

How much dead money do they have tied up in the next season plus? Is Sandoval off the books? How much longer is Pedroia under contract? At some point, these things catch up with you.

2020 is the last year of Sandoval. Just $5 million on the books. Pedroia has two more years, but he also has deferred money, like Manny.

Sale has at least 3 more years, plus another 3 if he doesn't opt out (which he won't), though the last year is a vesting option.

Price and Eovaldi are 3 more guaranteed years each.

Unless they're paying teams to take them, their payroll starts at a minimum of $99 million for the next 3 years between Bogaerts, Sale, Price, and Eovaldi. Really need the pitching coach (& staff) to work some magic because they need at least 2 of them to perform well.

 

[yazmybaby]

Red Sox have the best 1-4 I’ve seen since the 1975-6 Reds and they are whining like *****as

hilarious

Betts
Devers
Bogearts
Martinez

Vs

Rose
Griffey Sr
Morgan
Bench

You are forgetting George Foster who was a beast with the bat!
That big red machine was probably the best lineup 1-8 ever, no weak bats.
I like our 1-4 as well, hopefully Benny can improve on last year and CV can duplicate his year.

 

[yazmybaby]

I don’t really care one way or another about Betts.

However, what’s one year of Betts worth in terms of compensation when you can have him for just cash after the season?

From the Red Sox perspective, look at what happened with the Nationals and Bryce Harper. You can argue that the money it would cost to sign Betts is better utilized spread out among two or three players instead.

What if letting Betts wall means a replacement player, plus a starting pitcher and a quality arm in the bullpen?

How much dead money do they have tied up in the next season plus? Is Sandoval off the books? How much longer is Pedroia under contract? At some point, these things catch up with you.

I think the Sox have made calls and tried to trade Betts and do not like the lowball offers.
We were probably offered B and C prospects from the Dodgers and a starting OF that is average IE AJ Pollack with a bad contract.
It makes no sense trading Betts if that is what we can get back.
Better to wait until the trade deadline and see what position we are in, then determine what to do.

 

[Top Shelf Wrister]

2020 is the last year of Sandoval. Just $5 million on the books. Pedroia has two more years, but he also has deferred money, like Manny.

Sale has at least 3 more years, plus another 3 if he doesn't opt out (which he won't), though the last year is a vesting option.

Price and Eovaldi are 3 more guaranteed years each.

Unless they're paying teams to take them, their payroll starts at a minimum of $99 million for the next 3 years between Bogaerts, Sale, Price, and Eovaldi. Really need the pitching coach (& staff) to work some magic because they need at least 2 of them to perform well.

God forbid this organization develops a drafted starting pitcher. Is it the support staff or the prospects that fall short here? Im genuinely curious because its been like this for decade basically. Need another Lester to come through the pipeline because it seems to me this organization cant squeeze all the juice from its drafted players like the Bruins have been doing in recent years

 

[DKH]

You are forgetting George Foster who was a beast with the bat!
That big red machine was probably the best lineup 1-8 ever, no weak bats.
I like our 1-4 as well, hopefully Benny can improve on last year and CV can duplicate his year.

I remember George Foster coming up with the Giants

I was just doing 1-4 to promote my argument

agree best lineup ever

 

[Scruffy]

For the amount of money that the owners make off of the Red Sox, and what they charge for ticket prices, there is absolutely ZERO reason for them to try to pinch pennies. You want to go cheap on the payroll? Then lower your damn park costs. Does anyone here really care about the financial statements of billionaires? These guys have spent more in a day than most of us will make in a lifetime. The team is worth almost$3 Billion and were purchased for $700 million. You'll get no tears from me.

 

[Gator Mike]

He's also shown no indication that he's NOT interested in staying in Boston beyond this year.....unless of course you are counting his rejection of below market offers as him wanting out. That would be a mistake however.

They're not in a position where they can risk losing Betts for nothing. If they want to wait until the trade deadline and see if they're in a playoff race, then that's fine.

But if they're not realistic World Series contenders at the deadline, then they need to make one last effort to sign Mookie, and if says "no", then they need to get as much for him as they can.

 

[Seidenbergy]

They're not in a position where they can risk losing Betts for nothing. If they want to wait until the trade deadline and see if they're in a playoff race, then that's fine.

But if they're not realistic World Series contenders at the deadline, then they need to make one last effort to sign Mookie, and if says "no", then they need to get as much for him as they can.

Quoting the wrong post?

 

[CDJ]

Rays and Cardinals made a very interesting trade

Jose Martinez will probably be in the middle of the rays lineup for the foreseeable future...if they’re smart it will be at DH

 

[N o o d l e s]

Rays and Cardinals made a very interesting trade

Jose Martinez will probably be in the middle of the rays lineup for the foreseeable future...if they’re smart it will be at DH

I’m sure he’ll rake there cause things like just work out for TB

 

[Smitty93]

I’m sure he’ll rake there cause things like just work out for TB

Its kind of pathetic how jealous I am of them considering how successful the Red Sox have been.

It's incredible how they seem to outperform their talent every year, and it's unfair how they're able to develop pitchers consistently considering how much the Red Sox struggle with that. I really hope Chaim Bloom took some of that magic with him.

 

[CDJ]

It’s an interesting trade because while they picked up Martinez and an interesting young player in Arozarena, they also gave up arguably the 2nd best LHP prospect in baseball

never a bad idea to sell high on a kid in A-ball though I guess. Makes me wonder if they know something about Liberatore (Had lower back issues at one point though major stuff would show up in the physical)


The rays also just traded Austin Pruitt for a couple intriguing prospects. Why can’t we develop guys as average as Austin Pruitt?

 

[LouJersey]

You are forgetting George Foster who was a beast with the bat!
That big red machine was probably the best lineup 1-8 ever, no weak bats.
I like our 1-4 as well, hopefully Benny can improve on last year and CV can duplicate his year.

I remember the all star games. It was all Reds. Pretty sure the entire starting infield, Bench and Foster were in every starting lineup. Later on the Dodgers infield always started

 

[LouJersey]

It’s an interesting trade because while they picked up Martinez and an interesting young player in Arozarena, they also gave up arguably the 2nd best LHP prospect in baseball

never a bad idea to sell high on a kid in A-ball though I guess. Makes me wonder if they know something about Liberatore (Had lower back issues at one point though major stuff would show up in the physical)


The rays also just traded Austin Pruitt for a couple intriguing prospects. Why can’t we develop guys as average as Austin Pruitt?

I honestly don’t think I’d ever trade with the Rays or the Athletics.

 

[DKH]

When I hear they specifically offered Betts 10/340 and he says no I’m skeptical he won’t stay

if he doesn’t I play out the season and try to win

I’m not blowing up the season AND getting 50 cents on the dollar

fans think there is a magic trade fairly who’s going to give equal or better value

sorry folks ‘you play to win’

at this point i would add bargain pieces lot of guys out there who are good with no team

 

[Mr Cartmenez]

At this point (1 year ahead of free agency), it makes sense to postpone the talks and allow him to test free agency next year. Sometimes players overplay their cards. I wouldn't be willing to give Mookie more than Trout. I am a bit skeptical bout his frame. McCutchen fell off a cliff pretty hard.
A good chunk of Betts' value comes from playing top notch defense in RF. If that drops off, he does not have a 30m+ bat to make up for that.