News Article: 2020 before we're good? Agree?

[HogtownSabresfan]

http://www.thestar.com/sports/hocke...n_connor_mcdavid_to_fix_these_sabres_cox.html

Personally, I don't buy this at all. Not with proper coaching and couple UFAs. I think this team will turn the corner and fast, just like 2005-2006, when no one was expecting it. We weren't predicted by anybody as a playoff team that year.

Click to read more...

 

[Jame]

http://www.thestar.com/sports/hocke...n_connor_mcdavid_to_fix_these_sabres_cox.html

Personally, I don't buy this at all. Not with proper coaching and couple UFAs. I think this team will turn the corner and fast, just like 2005-2006, when no one was expecting it. We weren't predicted by anybody as a playoff team that year.

I agree in the sense that it's going to be longer than people seem to think.

 

[Paxon]

Best-case scenario, we’re talking 2020 before it’s time to take Buffalo seriously again, and that’s if they get McDavid.

How can anyone take this seriously? The implication that the best-case scenario for any team would be 6 years until it's "taken seriously" is absurd. More or less absurd(?): that if and only if Buffalo gets McDavid will they, at best, be "taken seriously" in 6 years.

This article basically just says "this team sucks" and then arbitrarily deduces it will take 6 years for the team to be whatever "taken seriously" means.

 

[Jame]

Lafontaine changed his mind? First time I heard that one

 

[gallagt01]

Didn't read the article.

But to the question posed the the thread title...


It all depends on how Murray handles the boatload of prospects he has at his disposal.

If he plugs them into the lineup and forms a "futures roster" - much like ones you see on HF all the time - the team will falter and be stuck in a never-ending rebuild, much like Edmonton.

If he dangles the high-end depth that he has in the pipeline to add legitimate NHLers, they'll be better faster (obviously).

Murray should be doing everything in his power to add the O'Reillys of the league this offseason. He has the ammo to get it done and he has the depth to lessen the blow of losing prospects like Baptiste, Compher, Fasching, even Zadorov and Grigorenko -- everyone.

I think he'll do what it takes. But it won't be in one offseason. McDavid/Eichel won't be enough to turn this team around.

Though I quite like the idea of O'Reilly-McDavid-xxx and Girgensons-Reinhart-xxx in the future.

 

[Jacob582]

How can anyone take this seriousproofly? The implication that the best-case scenario for any team would be 6 years until it's "taken seriously" is absurd. More or less absurd(?): that if and only if Buffalo gets McDavid will they, at best, be "taken seriously" in 6 years.

This article basically just stays "this team sucks" and then arbitrarily deduces it will take 6 years for the team to be whatever "taken seriously" means.

I thought the same thing when I read the article. It may be a likely scenario, but not the best case scenario.

Tavares is a comparable, but the article didn't take into account some notable differences: high number of draft picks, competent management, an owner willing to spend too the cap, and a slightly better track record of attracting players (Gionta, Gorges, Moulson).

 

[Afino]

How can anyone take this seriously? The implication that the best-case scenario for any team would be 6 years until it's "taken seriously" is absurd.

This poster must be Mike Harrington

 

[sabrebuild]

What a garbage article. From the references to the goalies not having long term deals to not knowing the value of girgs and Myers. Jeez Cox.

The best part is what is good? To Cox it seems the Islanders and them making a playoff run now. While he ignores they made the playoffs two years ago and missed last year in part to a season ending injury to Tavares, lets say a playoff contending team is his standard. Forget that their gm was garth snow and ours is tim murray. Forget that their owner is a buffoon in his 25 years of owning the team and pegula has shown nothing but a willingness to put money into the team. The Sabres prospect pool is so deep its a joke to reference what Isles had waiting for Tavares. When fid Jerry Sullivan start working in Toronto.

On a non-rant related note I think the team will come up short but compete for the last playoff spot next season. I would guess they are a real threat in the playoffs in year three of McEichel.

 

[SundherDome]

Such a subjective article, very few facts and a lot of spewing trash at a team that has been a throne in the side of the writers team. In 6 years anyone can be competitive and taken seriously. And we have a few potential franchise goalies in out pipeline. The other thing that gave me a hearty chuckle was when he said he doesn't know what girgensons value would be in the nhl, call every nhl GM and tell them girgensons is available and see what ensues.

 

[1972]

I honestly think 5 years is a long ways to project, if we don't make the playoffs or contend for the next 5 years then Tim Murray is likely gone as general manager.

In this day and age with so many teams against the cap it should be relatively easy to acquire NHL talent opposed to the past. Look at guys like Boychuk and Leddy being moved for a couple picks and a decent prospect, I look at a guy like Loui Erikkson as a guy that could be moved because of salary cap implications with the Smith, Krug and Hamilton extensions on the way. This is just one example but we are primed perfectly to get good players off teams that need the cap space.

Obviously a big part of the speed of this rebuild is going to be whether or not Ristolainen and Zadorov can be legit top 4 D-man sooner then later, the way they have played indicates they might be there by the end of the season if not sooner, especially in Ristolainen's case.

How good are Sam Reinhart, Joel Armia, and McEichel going to be next year?

Goaltending...Enroth is not going to be the anwser, and no one from the AHL is ready yet, Neuvirth has played pretty well but I don't know that he is the answer either.

In summary, there are far to many ????????? to say 5 years is best case scenario, in 5 years Reinhart and McEichel will be 24 and 23, Toews and Kane won a cup at 20 and 21, Crosby and Malkin won a cup at 21 and 22 years old, Ovechkin made the playoffs in his third season with 19 year old Backstrom as the teams #1 C . Not saying we are following that path, but if you can get a good core of 4-5 guys to surround Reinhart and McEichel the playoffs could very well come before 2020.

 

[sabrebuild]

There's really little reason for them not be able to compete for the last playoff spot next year. Bring in at least one veteran top six dman and a veteran center that can carry play and you will see improvement out of some of the underachieving guys. Trade, fa or offersheet Murray has the ammunition to bring in at least two or three actually good vets unlike last year. Centers and transition dmen will ho a long way for this team. They won't be great, but if Murray chooses to, he could have them closer to the playoffs than to last place by next year.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

I would expect to make the playoffs(hopefully) 2017 or 2018. If we land McDavid then at least next year we could be looking at McDavid, Grigorenko and Reinhart at center at least making things a little more interesting to watch.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Didn't read the article.

Read it. It's BS. The idea of one player turning the team around, really misses a key factor that a number o players/prospects are already developing. He's underestimated what is the pipeline. Main problem with piece.

 

[sba]

the Bucky Gleason of Toronto media

 

[FamilyGuy716]

2020 is the worst case scenario. That's ok with me because the best case scenario is 2016-17 season. I actually believe it's somewhere between that. We're a better organization from top down compared to the Islanders. Tim Murray can speed it up with trades and free agency which is what I expect over the next few years.

 

[gallagt01]

Read it. It's BS. The idea of one player turning the team around, really misses a key factor that a number o players/prospects are already developing. He's underestimated what is the pipeline. Main problem with piece.

Began to read it...stopped when he lumped Girgensons in with Foligno, Hodgson and Myers.

Girgensons is going to be a special player.

 

[MayDay]

Three fallacies with that article that I can see:

1) It assumes (like many fans of other teams seem to) that the Sabres are banking everything on getting Connor McDavid, and that the Sabres' rebuild plans are somehow "foiled" if they don't. This is insulting in two ways, since it (1) assumes that Tim Murray can't do simple math, and (2) sells Jack Eichel short as a future franchise center.

2) It underrated the quality and depth of Buffalo's prospect pool, and therefore assumes that the rebuild will require one player (McDavid) coming in and making all the difference. It's not going to be one player making all the difference, it's going to be a lot of players all maturing at the same time.

3) It confusingly lumps in blue-chip 20-year olds that will be cornerstones of the new core - Girgensons and Ristolainen - together with the likes of Foligno and Hodgson.

As for the specific prediction, I think 2020 is on the very conservative end of the spectrum. That's a worst-case scenario. I think 2017-2018 is more likely.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Three fallacies with that article that I can see:

1) It assumes (like many fans of other teams seem to) that the Sabres are banking everything on getting Connor McDavid, and that the Sabres' rebuild plans are somehow "foiled" if they don't. This is insulting in two ways, since it (1) assumes that Tim Murray can't do simple math, and (2) sells Jack Eichel short as a future franchise center.

2) It underrated the quality and depth of Buffalo's prospect pool, and therefore assumes that the rebuild will require one player (McDavid) coming in and making all the difference. It's not going to be one player making all the difference, it's going to be a lot of players all maturing at the same time.

3) It confusingly lumps in blue-chip 20-year olds that will be cornerstones of the new core - Girgensons and Ristolainen - together with the likes of Foligno and Hodgson.

As for the specific prediction, I think 2020 is on the very conservative end of the spectrum. That's a worst-case scenario. I think 2017-2018 is more likely.

The article is complete garbage, though I do agree that 2020 would be the EARLIEST that we would be considered a threat to win the cup, if that's what he means (not sure he does). I agree with your prediction that 2017-2018 is when Sabres start getting into the playoffs, but it'll take a few years of that before they're in the future equivalent of this group: Pens, Blues, Kings, Ducks, Chicago, Bruins, Tampa.

So I guess it depends on what you mean by "take them seriously." In 2020, Eichel will be what, 22 or 23?

 

[Shoey]

Do people observing this team from afar realize how many players this organization is going to count on aren't even here yet? There's no way it takes 6 years. Even without McEichel this team should show massive improvement with the graduation of Reinhart, Grigorenko, Armia, McCabe, and Pysyk next year. Beyond that they should be a perennial contender.

Too many quality prospects for this whole thing not to work, they've stacked the deck folks.

 

[SiDC1]

Three fallacies with that article that I can see:

1) It assumes (like many fans of other teams seem to) that the Sabres are banking everything on getting Connor McDavid, and that the Sabres' rebuild plans are somehow "foiled" if they don't. This is insulting in two ways, since it (1) assumes that Tim Murray can't do simple math, and (2) sells Jack Eichel short as a future franchise center.

2) It underrated the quality and depth of Buffalo's prospect pool, and therefore assumes that the rebuild will require one player (McDavid) coming in and making all the difference. It's not going to be one player making all the difference, it's going to be a lot of players all maturing at the same time.

3) It confusingly lumps in blue-chip 20-year olds that will be cornerstones of the new core - Girgensons and Ristolainen - together with the likes of Foligno and Hodgson.

As for the specific prediction, I think 2020 is on the very conservative end of the spectrum. That's a worst-case scenario. I think 2017-2018 is more likely.

Very good critique with great counter points. I agree that a 2017-18 time frame for being truly competitive, consistent playoff team. I don't believe, like some do, that the Sabres will be on the cusp of the playoff's next season. There will be way to many young players in the line up that need to get use to the speed and skill of the NHL (McDavid/Eichel included). If the article was titled "Best-case scenario, we’re talking 2020 before Buffalo is a seriously contender for the Stanley Cup". Then I would agree more with it.

As for trades/UFA's and the like. I think Murray will have a very hard time bringing in quality veterans to compliment the young players. With more and more players having NTC and NMC in their contracts, many will list the Sabres as a team on the "no go" list.

 

[ZeroPT*]

13-13: Suck badly
14-15: Suck badly
15 offseason: Have a UFA party and sign some placeholders, make trades,etc..
15-16: Progress but still probably a bottom 10 club
16-17: kids start taking over and team improves, maybe playoffs
17-18: Playoff team, continue upwards.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Disagree with the article. I can't find another rebuild example that looks like how Buffalo rebuilt. The long, slow bleeding process has brought in a ton of good prospects over time, building the pool. All the while, the NHL team continues a downward spiral, adding the franchise cornerstones last. Maybe the Oilers, but they made the mistakes of rushing talent and neglecting defensemen. So they are not similar.

In the Buffalo model, you add the cornerstones last, assuming they are forwards, due to impact. Reinhart and McEichel are going to change this team into a contender, and adding quality pieces in the draft around them will be far harder past this off-season. Buffalo already has all the complimentary players they need, and a bunch of picks in 2015.

Maybe in the Islanders or Oilers you could argue for this type of slow rebuild. Buffalo's prospect pool, commitment to drafting defensemen early, and depth of young players makes this unlikely.

 

[Beerz]

 

[ZeroPT*]

Disagree with the article. I can't find another rebuild example that looks like how Buffalo rebuilt. The long, slow bleeding process has brought in a ton of good prospects over time, building the pool. All the while, the NHL team continues a downward spiral, adding the franchise cornerstones last. Maybe the Oilers, but they made the mistakes of rushing talent and neglecting defensemen. So they are not similar.

In the Buffalo model, you add the cornerstones last, assuming they are forwards, due to impact. Reinhart and McEichel are going to change this team into a contender, and adding quality pieces in the draft around them will be far harder past this off-season. Buffalo already has all the complimentary players they need, and a bunch of picks in 2015.

Maybe in the Islanders or Oilers you could argue for this type of slow rebuild. Buffalo's prospect pool, commitment to drafting defensemen early, and depth of young players makes this unlikely.

Yup. The franchise defining forwards should be the last piece added.

 

[Zman5778]

In the Buffalo model, you add the cornerstones last, assuming they are forwards, due to impact. Reinhart and McEichel are going to change this team into a contender, and adding quality pieces in the draft around them will be far harder past this off-season. Buffalo already has all the complimentary players they need, and a bunch of picks in 2015.

This. All day and all night this.

This is what Edmonton and the Isles are lacking in. This is what Florida realizes they lack....but quality complimentary pieces are what screws up a team's cap space.

We have the complementary pieces all set and ready (if Compher and Fasching aren't NHL regulars, I'll eat my own shorts). A couple of the "core scoring" pieces are developing (Samson, Grigo, Armia). The defense seems to be rounding into shape before our eyes (Risto-Zads have been a revelation).

2020/21 is the WORST case scenario for us to be good, but I more or less agree with ZeroPT's timeline.