We should flip some of the potentially exposed players for picks ahead of time
This is a realistic scenario I see playing out. Give them a 2nd or 3rd so they don't take Lajoie or Wolanin and take Duclair/Tierney/Chlapik instead for example.On the bright side: We should still have a ton of picks for the 2021 entry draft. So far we have our own second, plus CLB, plus potentially SJS if Karlsson signs but they don't reach the finals. Might very well acquire some more between now and then.
We could be able to trade one of those to Seattle in exchange for picking a certain player. CLB 2nd for them to pick Duclair, for example. You can't actually use multiple seconds every year, you'll have a logjam of prospects, so you have to use them in other ways. Moving up in the entry draft is one idea, paying Seattle to protect the guys we like is another. Could make a ton of sense in our situation.
Crookshank is going to be exempt?
What about Daccord?
He wont be here ,he is part of next TDL,s yard saleTake Tierney please. Can't stand watching this floater. Softer than baby ****.
(Edited, Tierney's 3rd year of team control is actually 20-21, meaning he'll either be a UFA or he'll be on a longer term extension at the time of the draft./Smith is a UFA by the time of the draft)
OTTAWA SENATORS 2021 EXPANSION DRAFT FORWARD PROTECTION
PLAYERS WHO ARE LOCKS TO BE PROTECTED
In no particular order.
1) Batherson
2) Brown
3) Tkachuk
4) White
5) Balcers
All five of those players have either already made the NHL, or are considered to have very high ceilings. All five will still have significant RFA term left at the team of the draft.
___________
QUESTION MARKS
That leaves us with two spots to protect the following players
6) Pageau
(He's a UFA the year before the draft. That is the only reason he is not a lock to protect. If he is extended by the Senators, he will almost certainly be on the protection list as he's one of our most valuable players.)
7) Tierney
(He will be either be an unrestricted free agent, traded to another team sometime during his final season with Ottawa, or he will be on a longer term extension at the time of the draft. I think it's conceivable that the Senators keep one of Tierney or Pageau and trade the other since they'll both cost in excess of 4.5M to extend.)
8) Abramov
(It's way too early to predict if we protect Abramov. It entirely depends on how well he develops in the next two seasons.)
9) Chlapik
(Similar to Abramov, it's too early to predict if we protect Chlapik. Odds are, he tops out as a solid 3rd liner, but if he sees a surge in his development while another one of our higher ceiling young players stalls, maybe he finds his way on to our protection list.)
10) Duclair
(Has always had a very high ceiling but has been plagued by an inability to compete. He'll have 1 more year of team control left at the time of the expansion draft.)
11) Davidsson
(Currently on loan to the SHL. It's way too early to predict if we protect Davidsson. It entirely depends on how well he develops in the next two seasons.)
___________
PROJECTED FINAL PROTECTED LIST
1) Batherson
2) Brown
3) Tkachuk
4) White
5) Balcers
6) Pageau or Tierney (Whichever of the two is re-signed)
7) Abramov (Highest ceiling player of the bunch)
___________
NOTABLE EXEMPT FORWARDS
Norris (Unsigned NCAA), Formenton (CHL)
___________
EXPOSURE REQUIREMENTS
We need to expose two forwards who are under contract for the 2021-22 season, and who have played 40 games in 20-21, or 70 combined games in the two seasons prior to that.
Bobby Ryan if healthy should allow the Senators to meet half of those exposure requirements. Remember, Ryan's NMC does not need to be waived as it is a modified NMC that only prevents Ryan from being assigned to the AHL. Otherwise, given the state of the Senators rebuild, it should not be difficult to have depth forwards under contract who meet the requirements. If Zack Smith has not been traded, he would also fit the requirements.
___________
PROJECTED NOTABLE EXPOSED PLAYERS
1) Bobby Ryan
2) Zack Smith (UFA)
3) Filip Chlapik
4) Anthony Duclair (Possible RFA, final year of team control)
5) Jonathan Davidsson
___________
CONCLUSION
Up front, the Senators are going to give Seattle a lot to think about. It's unlikely that Seattle will take Smith or Ryan. Both will be approaching their mid 30's, and Ryan will be a UFAs in the year after the draft, while unless extended by Ottawa, Smith will be an unsigned UFA at the time of the draft.
Duclair would represent an opportunity for Seattle to get a young established NHLer. Duclair has top 6 skill but hasn't been able to put it together
It's too early to say whether Chlapik or Davidsson will be worth taking. Both could possibly be good young third liners with more years of team control in tact than Duclair. If Duclair fails to address previous issues with his work ethic, it wouldn't be conceivable to see one of Chlapik or Davidsson become better NHLers by the time of the draft.
If I had to guess based on projections and what we know today, the better of Chlapik or Davidsson would be Seattle's ideal forward to select. It's all projection at this point, but I don't see Duclair overcoming his past shortcomings to become the consistent top 6 forward that he should be based on his skills alone. It's not out of the realm of possibility that by the team of the Seattle expansion draft, one of Chlapik or Davidsson could have cemented themselves as a 3rd line NHLer.
(Edited, Tierney's 3rd year of team control is actually 20-21, meaning he'll either be a UFA or he'll be on a longer term extension at the time of the draft./Smith is a UFA by the time of the draft)
I'll do a breakdown of our defense and goalie protection later on.
It's a long ways away. No sense worrying about it yet.
Besides, maybe by that time we'll want them to take one of the kids. Odds are we're going to have a few that won't develop as much as we're hoping for.
They'll probably put Ceci at 2 protected spot just to make sureIf we expose Chabot that means we won't have to pay him.
I don't think that theory about moving Karlsson, Stone, etc checks out since we acquired just as many players we'd have to protect in those trades. Balcers, Tierney, Abramov, Davidsson.
According to the NHL Seattle 2021 NHL Expansion Draft rules All first- and second-year NHL players, and all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward protection limits.
So, a player drafted in 2018 or before that meets this rules does not have to be protected, correct?
If you asked me last season I would have said: Karlsson, Stone, Duchene, Tkachuk, Chabot.
I am reading your guys' lists, and all I can think is, "how did it come to this." Melnyk is Thanos.
Appreciate the detailed breakdown, forgot that Ryan didnt need to be protected.
So likely they protect
F Tkachuk, White, Batherson, Brown, Tierney, Pageau, Balcers/Abramov
D Chabot and two of Lajoie/Wolanin/Jaros
G ? who knows at this point
(Edited, Tierney's 3rd year of team control is actually 20-21, meaning he'll either be a UFA or he'll be on a longer term extension at the time of the draft./Smith is a UFA by the time of the draft)
OTTAWA SENATORS 2021 EXPANSION DRAFT FORWARD PROTECTION
PLAYERS WHO ARE LOCKS TO BE PROTECTED
In no particular order.
1) Batherson
2) Brown
3) Tkachuk
4) White
5) Balcers
All five of those players have either already made the NHL, or are considered to have very high ceilings. All five will still have significant RFA term left at the team of the draft.
___________
QUESTION MARKS
That leaves us with two spots to protect the following players
6) Pageau
(He's a UFA the year before the draft. That is the only reason he is not a lock to protect. If he is extended by the Senators, he will almost certainly be on the protection list as he's one of our most valuable players.)
7) Tierney
(He will be either be an unrestricted free agent, traded to another team sometime during his final season with Ottawa, or he will be on a longer term extension at the time of the draft. I think it's conceivable that the Senators keep one of Tierney or Pageau and trade the other since they'll both cost in excess of 4.5M to extend.)
8) Abramov
(It's way too early to predict if we protect Abramov. It entirely depends on how well he develops in the next two seasons.)
9) Chlapik
(Similar to Abramov, it's too early to predict if we protect Chlapik. Odds are, he tops out as a solid 3rd liner, but if he sees a surge in his development while another one of our higher ceiling young players stalls, maybe he finds his way on to our protection list.)
10) Duclair
(Has always had a very high ceiling but has been plagued by an inability to compete. He'll have 1 more year of team control left at the time of the expansion draft.)
11) Davidsson
(Currently on loan to the SHL. It's way too early to predict if we protect Davidsson. It entirely depends on how well he develops in the next two seasons.)
___________
PROJECTED FINAL PROTECTED LIST
1) Batherson
2) Brown
3) Tkachuk
4) White
5) Balcers
6) Pageau or Tierney (Whichever of the two is re-signed)
7) Abramov (Highest ceiling player of the bunch)
___________
NOTABLE EXEMPT FORWARDS
Norris (Unsigned NCAA), Formenton (CHL)
___________
EXPOSURE REQUIREMENTS
We need to expose two forwards who are under contract for the 2021-22 season, and who have played 40 games in 20-21, or 70 combined games in the two seasons prior to that.
Bobby Ryan if healthy should allow the Senators to meet half of those exposure requirements. Remember, Ryan's NMC does not need to be waived as it is a modified NMC that only prevents Ryan from being assigned to the AHL. Otherwise, given the state of the Senators rebuild, it should not be difficult to have depth forwards under contract who meet the requirements. If Zack Smith has not been traded, he would also fit the requirements.
___________
PROJECTED NOTABLE EXPOSED PLAYERS
1) Bobby Ryan
2) Zack Smith (UFA)
3) Filip Chlapik
4) Anthony Duclair (Possible RFA, final year of team control)
5) Jonathan Davidsson
___________
CONCLUSION
Up front, the Senators are going to give Seattle a lot to think about. It's unlikely that Seattle will take Smith or Ryan. Both will be approaching their mid 30's, and Ryan will be a UFAs in the year after the draft, while unless extended by Ottawa, Smith will be an unsigned UFA at the time of the draft.
Duclair would represent an opportunity for Seattle to get a young established NHLer. Duclair has top 6 skill but hasn't been able to put it together
It's too early to say whether Chlapik or Davidsson will be worth taking. Both could possibly be good young third liners with more years of team control in tact than Duclair. If Duclair fails to address previous issues with his work ethic, it wouldn't be conceivable to see one of Chlapik or Davidsson become better NHLers by the time of the draft.
If I had to guess based on projections and what we know today, the better of Chlapik or Davidsson would be Seattle's ideal forward to select. It's all projection at this point, but I don't see Duclair overcoming his past shortcomings to become the consistent top 6 forward that he should be based on his skills alone. It's not out of the realm of possibility that by the team of the Seattle expansion draft, one of Chlapik or Davidsson could have cemented themselves as a 3rd line NHLer.
(Edited, Tierney's 3rd year of team control is actually 20-21, meaning he'll either be a UFA or he'll be on a longer term extension at the time of the draft./Smith is a UFA by the time of the draft)
I'll do a breakdown of our defense and goalie protection later on.
Lots of new F additions
MUST (5)- Brady, Bath, Brown, Brown, Formenton,
Possible(2) - Abramov, Tierney, White, Dadonov, Watson, Chaplik, Paul, Balcers
Not required - Norris, Stutzle,
7F: Tkachuk, Batherson, Brown, Brown, Dadonov + two of White, Balcers, Abramov, Tierney
3D: Chabot, Wolanin, Zaitsev?
1G: Murray (possibly Hogberg if Murray sucks in year 1)
We clearly shouldn't waste a valuable D protection spot on Zaitsev. Between now and expansion Dorion should definitely be looking to acquire a top 4 D. Should be a few on sale from teams that have a bunch of good D.