2020-21 Seattle Expansion Draft

[branch]

Take Tierney please. Can't stand watching this floater. Softer than baby shit.

 

[Melgene Eunyk]

We should flip some of the potentially exposed players for picks ahead of time

 

[Masked]

We should flip some of the potentially exposed players for picks ahead of time

So you lose 2 or more players off the roster instead of just 1?

 

[MakeOttawaGreatAgain]

If you asked me last season I would have said: Karlsson, Stone, Duchene, Tkachuk, Chabot.

I am reading your guys' lists, and all I can think is, "how did it come to this." Melnyk is Thanos.

 

[ChurchOfAlfie]

On the bright side: We should still have a ton of picks for the 2021 entry draft. So far we have our own second, plus CLB, plus potentially SJS if Karlsson signs but they don't reach the finals. Might very well acquire some more between now and then.

We could be able to trade one of those to Seattle in exchange for picking a certain player. CLB 2nd for them to pick Duclair, for example. You can't actually use multiple seconds every year, you'll have a logjam of prospects, so you have to use them in other ways. Moving up in the entry draft is one idea, paying Seattle to protect the guys we like is another. Could make a ton of sense in our situation.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

On the bright side: We should still have a ton of picks for the 2021 entry draft. So far we have our own second, plus CLB, plus potentially SJS if Karlsson signs but they don't reach the finals. Might very well acquire some more between now and then.

We could be able to trade one of those to Seattle in exchange for picking a certain player. CLB 2nd for them to pick Duclair, for example. You can't actually use multiple seconds every year, you'll have a logjam of prospects, so you have to use them in other ways. Moving up in the entry draft is one idea, paying Seattle to protect the guys we like is another. Could make a ton of sense in our situation.

This is a realistic scenario I see playing out. Give them a 2nd or 3rd so they don't take Lajoie or Wolanin and take Duclair/Tierney/Chlapik instead for example.

 

[Xspyrit]

Crookshank is going to be exempt?

What about Daccord?

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Crookshank is going to be exempt?

What about Daccord?

Anybody taken in the 2018 draft aside from Tkachuk will be exempt.

I am not sure about Daccord. If he signs this season and plays 1 game (thus burning a year of his ELC) I don't know if that counts as him accruing a pro season in the context of the expansion draft.

If the Senators sign Daccord to a 19-20 ELC, he is 100 percent exempt.

Gustavsson, Hogberg, Nilsson, Anderson, are all not exempt. Anderson almost certainly will not be here. Nilsson may not be here either.

Again, we can only lose one player. So if Hogberg and Gustavsson or Daccord and Gustavsson are both looking like they can be starters in the NHL, and we have to lose one to Seattle, the upside of that is we keep an exposed defender like Wolanin, or an exposed forward like Tierney. We're losing a valuable asset regardless of how this plays out.

 

[topshelf15]

Take Tierney please. Can't stand watching this floater. Softer than baby ****.

He wont be here ,he is part of next TDL,s yard sale

 

[danielpalfredsson]

OTTAWA SENATORS 2021 EXPANSION DRAFT FORWARD PROTECTION

PLAYERS WHO ARE LOCKS TO BE PROTECTED
In no particular order.
1) Batherson
2) Brown
3) Tkachuk
4) White
5) Balcers

All five of those players have either already made the NHL, or are considered to have very high ceilings. All five will still have significant RFA term left at the team of the draft.
___________

QUESTION MARKS
That leaves us with two spots to protect the following players

6) Pageau
(He's a UFA the year before the draft. That is the only reason he is not a lock to protect. If he is extended by the Senators, he will almost certainly be on the protection list as he's one of our most valuable players.)

7) Tierney
(He will be either be an unrestricted free agent, traded to another team sometime during his final season with Ottawa, or he will be on a longer term extension at the time of the draft. I think it's conceivable that the Senators keep one of Tierney or Pageau and trade the other since they'll both cost in excess of 4.5M to extend.)​

(Edited, Tierney's 3rd year of team control is actually 20-21, meaning he'll either be a UFA or he'll be on a longer term extension at the time of the draft./Smith is a UFA by the time of the draft)

8) Abramov
(It's way too early to predict if we protect Abramov. It entirely depends on how well he develops in the next two seasons.)

9) Chlapik
(Similar to Abramov, it's too early to predict if we protect Chlapik. Odds are, he tops out as a solid 3rd liner, but if he sees a surge in his development while another one of our higher ceiling young players stalls, maybe he finds his way on to our protection list.)

10) Duclair
(Has always had a very high ceiling but has been plagued by an inability to compete. He'll have 1 more year of team control left at the time of the expansion draft.)

11) Davidsson
(Currently on loan to the SHL. It's way too early to predict if we protect Davidsson. It entirely depends on how well he develops in the next two seasons.)
___________

PROJECTED FINAL PROTECTED LIST
1) Batherson
2) Brown
3) Tkachuk
4) White
5) Balcers
6) Pageau or Tierney (Whichever of the two is re-signed)
7) Abramov (Highest ceiling player of the bunch)
___________

NOTABLE EXEMPT FORWARDS
Norris (Unsigned NCAA), Formenton (CHL)
___________

EXPOSURE REQUIREMENTS
We need to expose two forwards who are under contract for the 2021-22 season, and who have played 40 games in 20-21, or 70 combined games in the two seasons prior to that.

Bobby Ryan if healthy should allow the Senators to meet half of those exposure requirements. Remember, Ryan's NMC does not need to be waived as it is a modified NMC that only prevents Ryan from being assigned to the AHL. Otherwise, given the state of the Senators rebuild, it should not be difficult to have depth forwards under contract who meet the requirements. If Zack Smith has not been traded, he would also fit the requirements.
___________

PROJECTED NOTABLE EXPOSED PLAYERS
1) Bobby Ryan
2) Zack Smith (UFA)
3) Filip Chlapik
4) Anthony Duclair (Possible RFA, final year of team control)
5) Jonathan Davidsson
___________

CONCLUSION
Up front, the Senators are going to give Seattle a lot to think about. It's unlikely that Seattle will take Smith or Ryan. Both will be approaching their mid 30's, and Ryan will be a UFAs in the year after the draft, while unless extended by Ottawa, Smith will be an unsigned UFA at the time of the draft.

Duclair would represent an opportunity for Seattle to get a young established NHLer. Duclair has top 6 skill but hasn't been able to put it together

It's too early to say whether Chlapik or Davidsson will be worth taking. Both could possibly be good young third liners with more years of team control in tact than Duclair. If Duclair fails to address previous issues with his work ethic, it wouldn't be conceivable to see one of Chlapik or Davidsson become better NHLers by the time of the draft.

If I had to guess based on projections and what we know today, the better of Chlapik or Davidsson would be Seattle's ideal forward to select. It's all projection at this point, but I don't see Duclair overcoming his past shortcomings to become the consistent top 6 forward that he should be based on his skills alone. It's not out of the realm of possibility that by the team of the Seattle expansion draft, one of Chlapik or Davidsson could have cemented themselves as a 3rd line NHLer.

(Edited, Tierney's 3rd year of team control is actually 20-21, meaning he'll either be a UFA or he'll be on a longer term extension at the time of the draft./Smith is a UFA by the time of the draft)​

I'll do a breakdown of our defense and goalie protection later on.​

I made two revisions to my original writeup.

Got mixed up with the timeline of the draft.

1) Smith will be a UFA (if he is still on our roster). I originally said he'd have 1 more year left under contract. So he's in all likelihood a non-factor for the expansion draft.

2) Tierney will have finished his 3 years of team control. I could see the Senators extending one of Tierney or Pageau long term and protecting that player. The other will most likely be traded before the end of their contract. Point being, I don't think either will figure into the expansion draft as an exposed player. One gets extended and protected, one gets traded well before the expansion draft.

I originally had Pageau protected and Tierney exposed, so this doesn't change the protection list other than denoting that whichever of the two is extended would be protected. It takes Tierney (the best option up front) off the table for Seattle. Instead, I have them taking whoever projects to be the better player out of Davidsson or Chlapik.

If you want to get a bit more specific, I would say we'd use our 7th protection spot on whoever is the most valuable (by 2021) of Abramov, Chlapik, or Davidsson. Although, I supposed it's possible someone comes out of nowhere and beats out all three of those players, or that all three of those players bust ala Nick Paul.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

It's a long ways away. No sense worrying about it yet.

Besides, maybe by that time we'll want them to take one of the kids. Odds are we're going to have a few that won't develop as much as we're hoping for.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

It's a long ways away. No sense worrying about it yet.

Besides, maybe by that time we'll want them to take one of the kids. Odds are we're going to have a few that won't develop as much as we're hoping for.

More changes will happen ahead of the ED.

 

[Alex1234]

If we expose Chabot that means we won't have to pay him.

They'll probably put Ceci at 2 protected spot just to make sure

 

[Sweatred]

I don't think that theory about moving Karlsson, Stone, etc checks out since we acquired just as many players we'd have to protect in those trades. Balcers, Tierney, Abramov, Davidsson.

If we keep EK, MS, MD, RD it slides the "protection bar" up 3 forward spots. That would expose at least one of White, Balcers, Pageau etc. Even keeping RD would make it hard to protect Pageau/Balcers. Balcers (or which ever forward slots there) may not be a huge deal but it is fair to include the value of keeping them when considering the value of each trade.

 

[yogibear]

According to the NHL Seattle 2021 NHL Expansion Draft rules All first- and second-year NHL players, and all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward protection limits.

So, a player drafted in 2018 or before that meets this rules does not have to be protected, correct?

 

[danielpalfredsson]

According to the NHL Seattle 2021 NHL Expansion Draft rules All first- and second-year NHL players, and all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward protection limits.

So, a player drafted in 2018 or before that meets this rules does not have to be protected, correct?

The draft year doesn't really matter.

What matters is whether they've played two years of "pro" hockey. So Tkachuk for example won't be exempt.

The only player that is the exception of that rule is Brannstrom. His season in the AHL doesn't count as a "pro" season despite it counting for other players like Batherson and Brown. This is because Brannstrom is under 20 years. Brannstrom is our only player in the AHL who meets that criteria. If he plays 11 NHL games total, he'd be eligible for selection in the draft, but that obviously is not going to happen. They aren't going to burn a protection spot over giving Brannstrom nothing games in the NHL.

Everybody other than Tkachuk that was taken in 2018 will be exempt, not because they were taken in 2018, but because there is not enough time for them to accrue two pro seasons. Formenton and Norris will both be exempt. Daccord if signed after this season will be exempt.

As far as our other prospect trade acquisitions go Abramov, Davidsson, Duclair, and Balcers are not exempt.

 

[NorthCoast]

Here's hoping they get an absolute blue-chip stud. Like, 12th best player in the league.

 

[Xspyrit]

If you asked me last season I would have said: Karlsson, Stone, Duchene, Tkachuk, Chabot.

I am reading your guys' lists, and all I can think is, "how did it come to this." Melnyk is Thanos.

No. Thanos is not broke

 

[Sweatred]

Appreciate the detailed breakdown, forgot that Ryan didnt need to be protected.

So likely they protect

F Tkachuk, White, Batherson, Brown, Tierney, Pageau, Balcers/Abramov
D Chabot and two of Lajoie/Wolanin/Jaros
G ? who knows at this point

This is starting to move a bit. Chatter of extending C.Brown, Duc, Pager and the emergence of Paul probably changes this list.

At this point I guess we are exposing Z and one of Lajoie, Wolanin, Jaros.

Ryan’s situation may be complicated now. He may not count as en eligible exposed forward (if he doesn’t return) ?

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

OTTAWA SENATORS 2021 EXPANSION DRAFT FORWARD PROTECTION

PLAYERS WHO ARE LOCKS TO BE PROTECTED
In no particular order.
1) Batherson
2) Brown
3) Tkachuk
4) White
5) Balcers

All five of those players have either already made the NHL, or are considered to have very high ceilings. All five will still have significant RFA term left at the team of the draft.
___________

QUESTION MARKS
That leaves us with two spots to protect the following players

6) Pageau
(He's a UFA the year before the draft. That is the only reason he is not a lock to protect. If he is extended by the Senators, he will almost certainly be on the protection list as he's one of our most valuable players.)

7) Tierney
(He will be either be an unrestricted free agent, traded to another team sometime during his final season with Ottawa, or he will be on a longer term extension at the time of the draft. I think it's conceivable that the Senators keep one of Tierney or Pageau and trade the other since they'll both cost in excess of 4.5M to extend.)​

(Edited, Tierney's 3rd year of team control is actually 20-21, meaning he'll either be a UFA or he'll be on a longer term extension at the time of the draft./Smith is a UFA by the time of the draft)

8) Abramov
(It's way too early to predict if we protect Abramov. It entirely depends on how well he develops in the next two seasons.)

9) Chlapik
(Similar to Abramov, it's too early to predict if we protect Chlapik. Odds are, he tops out as a solid 3rd liner, but if he sees a surge in his development while another one of our higher ceiling young players stalls, maybe he finds his way on to our protection list.)

10) Duclair
(Has always had a very high ceiling but has been plagued by an inability to compete. He'll have 1 more year of team control left at the time of the expansion draft.)

11) Davidsson
(Currently on loan to the SHL. It's way too early to predict if we protect Davidsson. It entirely depends on how well he develops in the next two seasons.)
___________

PROJECTED FINAL PROTECTED LIST
1) Batherson
2) Brown
3) Tkachuk
4) White
5) Balcers
6) Pageau or Tierney (Whichever of the two is re-signed)
7) Abramov (Highest ceiling player of the bunch)
___________

NOTABLE EXEMPT FORWARDS
Norris (Unsigned NCAA), Formenton (CHL)
___________

EXPOSURE REQUIREMENTS
We need to expose two forwards who are under contract for the 2021-22 season, and who have played 40 games in 20-21, or 70 combined games in the two seasons prior to that.

Bobby Ryan if healthy should allow the Senators to meet half of those exposure requirements. Remember, Ryan's NMC does not need to be waived as it is a modified NMC that only prevents Ryan from being assigned to the AHL. Otherwise, given the state of the Senators rebuild, it should not be difficult to have depth forwards under contract who meet the requirements. If Zack Smith has not been traded, he would also fit the requirements.
___________

PROJECTED NOTABLE EXPOSED PLAYERS
1) Bobby Ryan
2) Zack Smith (UFA)
3) Filip Chlapik
4) Anthony Duclair (Possible RFA, final year of team control)
5) Jonathan Davidsson
___________

CONCLUSION
Up front, the Senators are going to give Seattle a lot to think about. It's unlikely that Seattle will take Smith or Ryan. Both will be approaching their mid 30's, and Ryan will be a UFAs in the year after the draft, while unless extended by Ottawa, Smith will be an unsigned UFA at the time of the draft.

Duclair would represent an opportunity for Seattle to get a young established NHLer. Duclair has top 6 skill but hasn't been able to put it together

It's too early to say whether Chlapik or Davidsson will be worth taking. Both could possibly be good young third liners with more years of team control in tact than Duclair. If Duclair fails to address previous issues with his work ethic, it wouldn't be conceivable to see one of Chlapik or Davidsson become better NHLers by the time of the draft.

If I had to guess based on projections and what we know today, the better of Chlapik or Davidsson would be Seattle's ideal forward to select. It's all projection at this point, but I don't see Duclair overcoming his past shortcomings to become the consistent top 6 forward that he should be based on his skills alone. It's not out of the realm of possibility that by the team of the Seattle expansion draft, one of Chlapik or Davidsson could have cemented themselves as a 3rd line NHLer.

(Edited, Tierney's 3rd year of team control is actually 20-21, meaning he'll either be a UFA or he'll be on a longer term extension at the time of the draft./Smith is a UFA by the time of the draft)​

I'll do a breakdown of our defense and goalie protection later on.​

Beautiful work, my man. You're a glutton for producing good content.

I'd say Pageau and Duclair have really played their way into "lock" status, assuming they are both with the team. When viewing our future in this context, holding onto Tierney really makes no sense. Brown is a guy who I'd extend, but re-evaluate at the time. Maybe he surpasses one of the aforementioned players, maybe he doesn't, but you can trade 0ne of them when the time comes.

Similarly, it makes a decision on DeMelo tilt more towards the "trade" side of the ledger. We will have Chabot protected, and Jaros/Lajoie/Wolanin as valued guys who require protection, + Zaitsev and maybe Boro. That said, I think DeMelo may well be the most valuable guy out of the above players in 2 years, so I still think re-signing him merits strong consideration. It will depend largely, I think, on return + contract demands, as well as how the three young guys above perform over the remaining duration of the season.

 

[Sweatred]

Lots of new F additions

MUST (5)- Brady, Bath, Brown, Brown, Formenton,
Possible(2) - Abramov, Tierney, White, Dadonov, Watson, Chaplik, Paul, Balcers
Not required - Norris, Stutzle,

 

[Ouroboros]

Lots of new F additions

MUST (5)- Brady, Bath, Brown, Brown, Formenton,
Possible(2) - Abramov, Tierney, White, Dadonov, Watson, Chaplik, Paul, Balcers
Not required - Norris, Stutzle,

Formenton is exempt.

 

[Hale The Villain]

7F: Tkachuk, Batherson, Brown, Brown, Dadonov + two of White, Balcers, Abramov, Tierney
3D: Chabot, Wolanin, Zaitsev?
1G: Murray (possibly Hogberg if Murray sucks in year 1)

We clearly shouldn't waste a valuable D protection spot on Zaitsev. Between now and expansion Dorion should definitely be looking to acquire a top 4 D. Should be a few on sale from teams that have a bunch of good D.

 

[Sweatred]

7F: Tkachuk, Batherson, Brown, Brown, Dadonov + two of White, Balcers, Abramov, Tierney
3D: Chabot, Wolanin, Zaitsev?
1G: Murray (possibly Hogberg if Murray sucks in year 1)

We clearly shouldn't waste a valuable D protection spot on Zaitsev. Between now and expansion Dorion should definitely be looking to acquire a top 4 D. Should be a few on sale from teams that have a bunch of good D.

Delete

 

[Wallet Inspector]

I wonder if we expose White if he has another subpar year.