Prospect Info: 2020-21 Flyers Prospects - Top 30 SKATERS, #5

Who is the Flyers #5 SKATER prospect?

  • Attard, Ronnie

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Brodzinski, Bryce

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Ginning, Adam

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Hain, Gavin

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Kase, David

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Laberge, Pascal

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Lycksell, Olle

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Millman, Mason

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Serdyuk, Yegor

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • St. Ivany, Jack

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Strome, Matthew

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Sushko, Maxim

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Twarynski, Carson

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Westfalt, Marcus

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Wisdom, Zayde

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Wylie, Wyatte

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    94
  • Poll closed .

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
21,617
Ive watched a grand total of two full games of Andrae to date. 20-30 of Millman. Millman is an extremely aggressive blueline defender. Bigly. Andrae is fairly aggressive in that area. I need to see him play more to get a greater understanding of his entry defense aggressiveness. At this point in time, with the information I’ve gleaned from watching both, Millman is the Flyers most aggressive entry defense prospect not named Zamula. Of course, my thoughts on this aspect of their respective games could change over time with more viewings of Andrae. I’ve only seen Andrae vs SHL competition too. It’s quite possible that he was a lot more aggressive via entry defense in the SuperElit this past season.

I think you have to take into account level of competition, if we could watch Andrae play in the AHL people would probably be more excited about him at 18 playing against men. The key is how he adjusts this season, if he can work his way into the top 4 and major minutes by the SHL playoffs (if the league doesn't get shut down) we've got a keeper, if not, well, just to play a full SHL at 18 is an accomplishment.
 
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TB87

Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn
May 30, 2018
6,099
17,162
I think you have to take into account level of competition, if we could watch Andrae play in the AHL people would probably be more excited about him at 18 playing against men. The key is how he adjusts this season, if he can work his way into the top 4 and major minutes by the SHL playoffs (if the league doesn't get shut down) we've got a keeper, if not, well, just to play a full SHL at 18 is an accomplishment.




***Whenever I talk about prospects on this board or elsewhere, I take into account the following things (on the regular)***

- Quality of Teammates & Quality of Competition (among many other contextual factors)
- This goes for every post
- Just because it isn’t explicitly written out on each post, doesn’t mean that they aren’t being accounted for
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
21,617
***Whenever I talk about prospects on this board or elsewhere, I take into account the following things (on the regular)***

- Quality of Teammates & Quality of Competition (among many other contextual factors)
- This goes for every post
- Just because it isn’t explicitly written out on each post, doesn’t mean that they aren’t being accounted for

We'll know more about Andrae than Millman by the end of their seasons, because Millman should dominate as a 19 year old in the CHL, while Andrae's progress against men will be more informative with regard to his NHL potential.

You don't know how a player will handle jumping a level or two until they actually do it, which I think is an advantage when scouting foreign players. College is somewhere in-between, not as talented as the top foreign leagues, but playing against mostly 19-23 year olds, not 16-20.

The one thing that jumped out with Zamula was how poised he was playing against NHL players in TC at a young age, you can't duplicate that experience in the CHL.
 

FLYguy3911

Sanheim Lover
Oct 19, 2006
53,120
86,472
Not overly convinced I'm on the right side but went with Foerster. After the top four, I have a grouping of six I'm pretty confident in in some order. I think Foerster is the most skilled of the group so I gave him the nod for now. I'm not his biggest fan and I've made my reservations known, so I'll save everyone the time, but of the guys remaining, he's the one I have the easiest time envisioning playing high in a lineup even if his chances of being a true "Top 6" forward are probably smaller than most 23rd overall picks. I think he's going to score but he's going to need to be supported with guys that can offset his deficiencies to maximize his value, but I think there are enough well-rounded players in the organization to accommodate him.

The Flyers having Andrae as the best non-Drysdale or Sanderson defender in the draft is Banana Lands to me. Admittedly after the top two, there was a significant drop-off, but I'm not as bullish on his potential as others. At the Junior level last year on a stacked team he had more PP points than ES points and he didn't have a great impact on his team's goal differential in a high usage role. Fletcher even admitted he was 5'8. His skating looks improved from last year which is a good sign and he's skilled, but that's a tough profile. And for him individually, from a depth chart point of view, he couldn't have landed in a worse spot. He has a path to the Flyers as he can and has played RD, but it's going to be tough. He's only 18 but it's hard to say his ceiling is much more than a 3rd pair/PP2 type. A great outcome for a second round pick but you have to consider the floor.

Laczynski was NHL ready last year imo, so saying he's an NHL-ready forward seems like a bit of an understatement at this point. I think he's a positive impact bottom 6er right out of the gate. If I'm going to poke holes in his status, I'd point out Tanner also had more PP points than ES points as a forward and given he's the second oldest prospect in the system that prevents me from personally pulling the trigger at #5, but I can't really say people are wrong in their placement of him. He's a really good well-rounded player that can add value in multiple areas of the game. I can easily be convinced the scoring splits were a team issue (OSU has been well documented here) and he did have a big time impact on goals for and goals against when he was on the ice this year as you might expect, so he could have been a bit unlucky, but it's something I'd rather see than not. And I'm getting way ahead of myself here and the baseball guy inside of me is coming out, but due to his age, the Flyers only have four years of control here. Compared to the seven with Foerster. Big difference in value if that is your cup of tea.

Millman had a great year overall. Even better when you put into context his miserable start to the year. Like a couple others, I'm not truly convinced Andrae is the better prospect at the moment. Andrae is more skilled, but Millman brings a lot of NHL qualities that could easily make him a modern day third pair "defensive defenseman" with a lot of mobility. The track record isn't particularly long for Millman and he hasn't even been a #1 defenseman on his Junior team (yet), but the arrow is still pointing up. Unfortunately the OHL season not kicking off on time puts a damper on his development in that role and maybe any chance he had at representing Canada at the WJCs. Hopefully his season doesn't get truncated too much with a February start date and he gets the necessary experience before turning pro. He only has two seasons under his belt at the Major Junior level. Most players need at least three full seasons of Major Junior.
 

Tripod

I hate this team
Aug 12, 2008
78,841
86,201
Nova Scotia
I think once we got past that top four, it was pretty easy to see how utterly stupid it is to say things like "We don't need any more prospects, our pipeline is full" or "Who gives a shit about a couple of draft picks LMAO"
Yeah it sucks that there is such a drop after the top 4 and not after 7-10 guys....especially when we have:

4 1st rounders still in our group that's left: Foerster, Rubstov, JOB, Morin
5 2nd rounders still in our group that's left: Andrae, Ginning, Ratcliffe, Laberge, Allison

So we have 12 prospects who are 1st/2nd rounders...and yet 4 are deemed as higher end...and that higher end is hoping/expecting to be 50-60 point guys. What could have been.
 

Curufinwe

Registered User
Feb 28, 2013
55,754
42,785
Sometimes I wonder if Dave Isaac called Isaac Ratcliffe a "quick study" just because he liked that he shared a name with a prospect.
 
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deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
21,617
Yeah it sucks that there is such a drop after the top 4 and not after 7-10 guys....especially when we have:

4 1st rounders still in our group that's left: Foerster, Rubstov, JOB, Morin
5 2nd rounders still in our group that's left: Andrae, Ginning, Ratcliffe, Laberge, Allison

So we have 12 prospects who are 1st/2nd rounders...and yet 4 are deemed as higher end...and that higher end is hoping/expecting to be 50-60 point guys. What could have been.

I think you're falling into the framing effect, it's easy to remember the 1st and 2nd rd picks that succeed, not the ones that fail.
JOB was #19, Foerster, Rubtsov in the 20s, Morin was earlier but that was pre-Hextall.
#21-30, only about a 40% chance of playing 400 games. 13% of finding an allstar
#31-50, only about 21%. Or 1 in 5. 5.7% allstar.
#51-75, only about 17%. Or 1 in 6. 4.1% allstar.
#76-100, only about 12%. Or 1 in 8. 4% allstar.
 

Cootsfanclub

For Oskar!
Mar 29, 2013
7,795
4,473
I think Foerster is a lot closer to the top 4 than 6-8. His shot is far and away the best of all our prospects (considered by some best in the whole draft) and he likes to shoot. We've been begging for a player of his skill set for a long time.
 
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pit

5th Most Improved Poster
Jun 25, 2005
4,999
20,336
Toronto
CzWlmhn.gif
 

TB87

Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn
May 30, 2018
6,099
17,162
FYI: Alexander Holtz has the best shot from the 2020 draft.

Foerster has a very good shot.

Holtz shot is special
 
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Magua

Entirely Palatable Product
Apr 25, 2016
37,541
155,663
Huron of the Lakes
Brink scored 35 goals in 43 games his draft season in a league where the leading scorer had 41 goals in 62 games. He’s got an arsenal in the shooting department, so despite Foerster’s booming one timer, I’m not even sure he is the clear cut best all-around shooter. And that’s not even discussing a certain player who scored 65 goals his draft+2 season with generational physicality! :sarcasm:

In general, “shooting” is such a vague concept to me. The skill of the shot itself and the hockey usability of that skill can get sloppily fused together. Guys who have the most visually pleasing shots regularly get outscored by players with the ability to get to better shooting areas at a higher rate. Shot manufacturing isn’t considered enough. Not to delve into Future Flyer Laine, but he’s probably the 2nd/3rd best shooter on the planet. He’s nowhere near the 2nd/3rd best goal scorer.

Forester is not a one dimensional player, and his shot is very good, but will he be able to get into those scoring areas to the degree others can to maximize that skill? Shot release point, footwork to create separation (tight spaces and races) become more and more important at the NHL level.
 

BiggE

SELL THE DAMN TEAM
Jan 4, 2019
24,391
63,839
Somewhere, FL
Brink scored 35 goals in 43 games his draft season in a league where the leading scorer had 41 goals in 62 games. He’s got an arsenal in the shooting department, so despite Foerster’s booming one timer, I’m not even sure he is the clear cut best all-around shooter. And that’s not even discussing a certain player who scored 65 goals his draft+2 season with generational physicality! :sarcasm:

In general, “shooting” is such a vague concept to me. The skill of the shot itself and the hockey usability of that skill can get sloppily fused together. Guys who have the most visually pleasing shots regularly get outscored by players with the ability to get to better shooting areas at a higher rate. Shot manufacturing isn’t considered enough. Not to delve into Future Flyer Laine, but he’s probably the 2nd/3rd best shooter on the planet. He’s nowhere near the 2nd/3rd best goal scorer.

Forester is not a one dimensional player, and his shot is very good, but will he be able to get into those scoring areas to the degree others can to maximize that skill? Shot release point, footwork to create separation (tight spaces and races) become more and more important at the NHL level.
I’ll take a quick release and accuracy over velocity any day. Tim Kerr didn’t have the hardest shot, but next to Mike Bossy, he had the quickest release I ever saw and he rarely missed his spot.
 
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deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
21,617
I’ll take a quick release and accuracy over velocity any day. Tim Kerr didn’t have the hardest shot, but next to Mike Bossy, he had the quickest release I ever saw and he rarely missed his spot.

Quick release and accuracy dominate velocity, velocity matters more on the PP, where someone like Ovechkin can be set up for a clean shot from 20'. 5x5, unless there's a breakdown you rarely get the time and space for a clean shot with a goalie off balance - usually you're shooting with someone on you or coming at you, and the best scorers know how to use a defender to screen a quick shot that the goalie doesn't see until it's on top of him - and that reduces his reaction time, which is the whole point of velocity.
 

Rebels57

Former Flyers fan
Sponsor
Sep 28, 2014
76,681
123,223
Brink scored 35 goals in 43 games his draft season in a league where the leading scorer had 41 goals in 62 games. He’s got an arsenal in the shooting department, so despite Foerster’s booming one timer, I’m not even sure he is the clear cut best all-around shooter. And that’s not even discussing a certain player who scored 65 goals his draft+2 season with generational physicality! :sarcasm:

In general, “shooting” is such a vague concept to me. The skill of the shot itself and the hockey usability of that skill can get sloppily fused together. Guys who have the most visually pleasing shots regularly get outscored by players with the ability to get to better shooting areas at a higher rate. Shot manufacturing isn’t considered enough. Not to delve into Future Flyer Laine, but he’s probably the 2nd/3rd best shooter on the planet. He’s nowhere near the 2nd/3rd best goal scorer.

Forester is not a one dimensional player, and his shot is very good, but will he be able to get into those scoring areas to the degree others can to maximize that skill? Shot release point, footwork to create separation (tight spaces and races) become more and more important at the NHL level.

This probably all hinges on his skating and agility improving. His ability to get into great shooting areas is apparently one of his strengths at the Junior level which suggests a high degree of ozone awareness. He'll just need to get there quicker and also be able to adjust positioning quicker in the NHL.
 

Larry44

#FireTortsNOW
Mar 1, 2002
11,960
7,294
I voted Allison, because he's going to play in the NHL for sure, and he's going to be a fan favourite who scores, creates, forechecks and is leader who is a general pain to play against.
 

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