Speculation: 2020-2021: Sharks Roster Discussion Part 2 - Offseason

[Dicdonya]

While i understand the merits of a full rebuild and wouldn't be fully against it, I still think that it's wrong move given the high-end talent we do have. We arent a team like NJ, DET, OTT, or BUF that has 1 top guy and a bunch of mediocre players. Our core of Karlsson, Burns, Kane, Hertl, Couture, Meier is still an above average top-2 D / top-4 forwards in the NHL.

Depth and goaltending were unquestionably issues last year, and i've argued here extensively that our best player (Karlsson) deserves a mulligan given everything he went through. I think it's the best option to not panic because of last season and let DW add another top 6 piece and some bottom 6 security.

Most importantly, though, I think Boughner (or someone else??) needs to create a better defense-first system. Something like CBJ/NYI run now or Boston did in the late 00's/early 10's where average goaltending is protected by aggressive defense/forecheck and limiting shots to the outside. If we play run and gun like Chicago or Edmonton, we will lose since Jones is unreliable, but i don't see any reason why we can't adjust our style to overcome our deficiencies and be a competitive team.

How the hell was depth the issue last year? Unless you mean depth in terms of a lack of top 6 NHL ready prospects just sitting around in the minors to replace injuries. If that is what you meant, well we have little chance to improve that this year so.....

Our issue was very clearly the top end talent on our team being hurt and mostly crap even when they were not hurt. Blaming our depth players for last year is just plain silly. Heck one of our depth players actually got us a first round pick for crying out loud. Marleau, Thornton etc were OK, and Noeson was one of the few bright spots. Also some of depth prospects like True, Kellman, Gregor etc looked good to fine. So nah our depth was fine.

Our top 4 forwards are barely, if even, above average. None of them, outside of a healthy Hertl, actually push into the "high end" forward category. Meier might get there, but so far has been way too inconsistent to proclaim he is top end in anything but potential at this time. Cooch has never been top end, just exceptionally consistent at being above average unless its the playoffs, and Kane is not top end, and never has been. He is average to above average at best.

Its also a little disingenuous to claim Burns and Karlsson are our top 2 D when they do not play together. That is attempting to gloss over the fact that both of them have to play with very much not top 2 caliber players on both pairings. Also after last year, and given Burns age, it seems rather foolhardy to assume Burns is top 2 caliber any more. He might be regain his form but I wouldnt bet on it at this point.

No our issue is, and has been as Thornton has slowly declined, a lack of top end talent on this team. That wont be fixed this year outside of a miracle trade, so while I totally expect us to bounce back this next year, because we are certainly not bottom feeder level if guys actually play to their abilities, we still have no realistic shot at the cup, and will just be wasting another year like last one before it blew up into a full blown trash fire.

 

[tiburon12]

How the hell was depth the issue last year? Unless you mean depth in terms of a lack of top 6 NHL ready prospects just sitting around in the minors to replace injuries. If that is what you meant, well we have little chance to improve that this year so.....

Our issue was very clearly the top end talent on our team being hurt and mostly crap even when they were not hurt. Blaming our depth players for last year is just plain silly. Heck one of our depth players actually got us a first round pick for crying out loud. Marleau, Thornton etc were OK, and Noeson was one of the few bright spots. Also some of depth prospects like True, Kellman, Gregor etc looked good to fine. So nah our depth was fine.

Our top 4 forwards are barely, if even, above average. None of them, outside of a healthy Hertl, actually push into the "high end" forward category. Meier might get there, but so far has been way too inconsistent to proclaim he is top end in anything but potential at this time. Cooch has never been top end, just exceptionally consistent at being above average unless its the playoffs, and Kane is not top end, and never has been. He is average to above average at best.

Its also a little disingenuous to claim Burns and Karlsson are our top 2 D when they do not play together. That is attempting to gloss over the fact that both of them have to play with very much not top 2 caliber players on both pairings. Also after last year, and given Burns age, it seems rather foolhardy to assume Burns is top 2 caliber any more. He might be regain his form but I wouldnt bet on it at this point.

No our issue is, and has been as Thornton has slowly declined, a lack of top end talent on this team. That wont be fixed this year outside of a miracle trade, so while I totally expect us to bounce back this next year, because we are certainly not bottom feeder level if guys actually play to their abilities, we still have no realistic shot at the cup, and will just be wasting another year like last one before it blew up into a full blown trash fire.

IDK man, we had bodies to fill out the bottom 6, but they weren't any good or consistent. We had to bring in Noesen off waivers and he still played more games than Kellman, True, Suomela, and Gregor. a team with strong depth doesnt have a revolving door of guys who look lost in the NHL. If you contrast that the 18/19 season, where we had great overall forward depth and were scratching a guy like Donskoi in the playoffs, bottom 6 depth was a clear lack. Obviously those guys needed some game experience and its believable that next season they will be more impactful. I'm actually surprised to see you say our Bottom 6 was ok.

I also don't know why you assume i'm blaming depth as the reason we sucked ass last year. I said it was an issue, which it unquestionably was, but not the only or most impactful reason. Totally agree our big dogs didnt show up or play to potential at all, no disagreement there.

My point in my post, that seemed to somehow be lost despite words like "most importantly", was that there is an opportunity for Boughner, with the added benefit of time he didnt have before, to create a system that better hides our goaltending deficiencies and plays to our forwards' strengths (forechecking and cycling). My point was that coaches like Trotz and Torts have done much more with equal or less talent on their rosters, so it would be great if Boughner could pull off the same apart from any roster moves.

 

[Levie]

IDK man, we had bodies to fill out the bottom 6, but they weren't any good or consistent. We had to bring in Noesen off waivers and he still played more games than Kellman, True, Suomela, and Gregor. a team with strong depth doesnt have a revolving door of guys who look lost in the NHL. If you contrast that the 18/19 season, where we had great overall forward depth and were scratching a guy like Donskoi in the playoffs, bottom 6 depth was a clear lack. Obviously those guys needed some game experience and its believable that next season they will be more impactful. I'm actually surprised to see you say our Bottom 6 was ok.

I also don't know why you assume i'm blaming depth as the reason we sucked ass last year. I said it was an issue, which it unquestionably was, but not the only or most impactful reason. Totally agree our big dogs didnt show up or play to potential at all, no disagreement there.

My point in my post, that seemed to somehow be lost despite words like "most importantly", was that there is an opportunity for Boughner, with the added benefit of time he didnt have before, to create a system that better hides our goaltending deficiencies and plays to our forwards' strengths (forechecking and cycling). My point was that coaches like Trotz and Torts have done much more with equal or less talent on their rosters, so it would be great if Boughner could pull off the same apart from any roster moves.

We had to find bodies in the bottom 6 because we had bottom 6ers playing in the top 6. Goodrow was our #1 center

 

[Patty Ice]

Alzner appears to need a change of venue. Hard to believe he's washed up allready. I'd take
and Drouin for Vlasic and the habs retain 3m instead of 4, that makes it about cab neutral
for us.

You have to make concessions the other way because they are taking longer term. I personally don't think the Habs should have to retain anything to make it cap neutral. the Sharks get out of 3 years.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

He'd be good at that part, but the drafting part is what worries me lol

Maybe. Meier, Couture, hertl and maybe Merkley will turn out. That's not awful.

 

[Barrie22]

Maybe. Meier, Couture, hertl and maybe Merkley will turn out. That's not awful.

Over a 20 year span? Yes that is awful. And adding all draft positions, who else do you add. Pavelski, clowe, vlasic?? For players that were impact players in the nhl.

His drafting has been horrendous, but masked because for most of that time he had prime thornton and marleau.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

You have to make concessions the other way because they are taking longer term. I personally don't think the Habs should have to retain anything to make it cap neutral. the Sharks get out of 3 years.

Yeah, moving a 7 mil d-man who isn't providing top pairing quality anymore for a top six forward would be a boon. Yeah, Drouin has faults but he has skill in a position of need. Alzner would be an expensive 7th d-man or bottom pairing for one season before we'd buy him out. That would turn his 4.6 mil cap hit into a 2.3 mil cap hit and then a 1.2 mil cap hit. If that's the hit we need to take to get out of Vlasic's term while addressing a position of need, that'd be a pretty good trade for the team.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Over a 20 year span? Yes that is awful. And adding all draft positions, who else do you add. Pavelski, clowe, vlasic?? For players that were impact players in the nhl.

His drafting has been horrendous, but masked because for most of that time he had prime thornton and marleau.

Honestly, people overvalue the gems he has found in depth positions mostly to cover for the fact that he's never drafted a franchise quality player. He's never drafted a #1 defenseman nor a starting goalie. Pavelski, Hertl, and Couture are all top line players to credit him for but aren't elite franchise players that you build your team around and win a Cup with. I wouldn't say that his drafting is horrendous but it has some major shortcomings. It's really solid at getting depth guys at various levels but not elite talent. And for forwards, I'm willing to give a pass to these sorts of results because the Sharks don't draft that high but the failures on the blue line and the net can't use that excuse as most teams find elite talent outside of the top five in those positions.

 

[STL Shark]

Yeah, moving a 7 mil d-man who isn't providing top pairing quality anymore for a top six forward would be a boon. Yeah, Drouin has faults but he has skill in a position of need. Alzner would be an expensive 7th d-man or bottom pairing for one season before we'd buy him out. That would turn his 4.6 mil cap hit into a 2.3 mil cap hit and then a 1.2 mil cap hit. If that's the hit we need to take to get out of Vlasic's term while addressing a position of need, that'd be a pretty good trade for the team.

In that situation, it prevents you from going out and signing a big fish like Dadonov, but you could fill in with a depth piece like Craig Smith to play on the 3rd line at a lower tag. Say you move Vlasic+Gambrell+SJS 2nd to Montreal for Drouin and Alzner.

Kane-Hertl-Labanc
Drouin-Couture-Meier
Gregor-Thornton-Smith
Marleau-Handemark-Noesen

Ferraro-Karlsson
Simek-Burns
Pasichnuk-TVR/Rutta/Whoever

Not a horrible lineup. Don't think it is a true contending lineup, but should at least get back to respectability while having cap space to make something happen next summer and the summer after (especially if you can entice Seattle to take Burns).

 

[Pinkfloyd]

In that situation, it prevents you from going out and signing a big fish like Dadonov, but you could fill in with a depth piece like Craig Smith to play on the 3rd line at a lower tag. Say you move Vlasic+Gambrell+SJS 2nd to Montreal for Drouin and Alzner.

Kane-Hertl-Labanc
Drouin-Couture-Meier
Gregor-Thornton-Smith
Marleau-Handemark-Noesen

Ferraro-Karlsson
Simek-Burns
Pasichnuk-TVR/Rutta/Whoever

Not a horrible lineup. Don't think it is a true contending lineup, but should at least get back to respectability while having cap space to make something happen next summer and the summer after (especially if you can entice Seattle to take Burns).

I think that lineup can at least compete for a playoff spot and potentially address depth concerns on the blue line at the deadline. The other thing is obviously the goaltending. I'd honestly rather give Noesen a chance with Thornton on the 3rd line than sign Smith if it means we can solidify the goaltending position with someone like Khudobin for a season or two.

 

[STL Shark]

I think that lineup can at least compete for a playoff spot and potentially address depth concerns on the blue line at the deadline. The other thing is obviously the goaltending. I'd honestly rather give Noesen a chance with Thornton on the 3rd line than sign Smith if it means we can solidify the goaltending position with someone like Khudobin for a season or two.

Yeah. That or I would be fine signing someone like Leivo to cheaper dollars as well instead of Smith. Swap Leivo for Smith and that gives you an extra $2 million. Can likely sign Talbot or Khudobin for $3-3.5 million and still be under the cap with 13F and 7D. Would lean toward Talbot just because DW almost pulled the trigger on him at the draft before trading for Jones and we know how much DW loves circling back on players he liked. Also why I am convinced that TVR is going to be the 3rd pairing RD because DW liked him out of New Hampshire before he signed with Chicago.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Yeah. That or I would be fine signing someone like Leivo to cheaper dollars as well instead of Smith. Swap Leivo for Smith and that gives you an extra $2 million. Can likely sign Talbot or Khudobin for $3-3.5 million and still be under the cap with 13F and 7D. Would lean toward Talbot just because DW almost pulled the trigger on him at the draft before trading for Jones and we know how much DW loves circling back on players he liked. Also why I am convinced that TVR is going to be the 3rd pairing RD because DW liked him out of New Hampshire before he signed with Chicago.

How much are you expecting TVR to sign for?

 

[hohosaregood]

How much are you expecting TVR to sign for?

I'd expect < $3.5m for TVR. He's making 2.5m right now which seems pretty fair.

 

[STL Shark]

How much are you expecting TVR to sign for?

Probably a short deal for $1.5-$2 million. In my AGM I have him splitting that difference at $1.75 mil. Rutta probably around the same price point as well and both are guys I would be happy to put on the bottom pair with one of Simek, Ferraro, or Pasichnuk depending what happens with Vlasic.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'd expect < $3.5m for TVR. He's making 2.5m right now which seems pretty fair.

That seems like it would be a bit much for the team to invest into a position that they don't need compared to other clear areas of weakness but they could move cap to open flexibility but we'll see.

 

[STL Shark]

I'd expect < $3.5m for TVR. He's making 2.5m right now which seems pretty fair.

Also been scratched a lot in Carolina and has seen his value take a hit. In a flat cap, think he is smart to take a prove it deal for 1 year on a team where he knows he is going to play consistent minutes.

 

[DG93]

Maybe. Meier, Couture, hertl and maybe Merkley will turn out. That's not awful.

Alternatively, there's a lot of bad too...idk I personally would want a fresh voice.

 

[hohosaregood]

Alternatively, there's a lot of bad too...idk I personally would want a fresh voice.

I'm okay with just riding it out. We're not quite in the crash and burn phase yet. Give it another year or two on this trajectory and DW's gonna be gone. And then we can revel in the joy and despair of rebuilding.

 

[tiburon12]

We had to find bodies in the bottom 6 because we had bottom 6ers playing in the top 6. Goodrow was our #1 center

Because of injuries...that's a disingenuous statement to support an already weak arguement.

I forget, was good forward depth the reason we had to go out and sign Marleau after losing 4 games to start the season?

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Over a 20 year span? Yes that is awful. And adding all draft positions, who else do you add. Pavelski, clowe, vlasic?? For players that were impact players in the nhl.

His drafting has been horrendous, but masked because for most of that time he had prime thornton and marleau.

I should have clarified. I was only talking about highish 1st round picks. He traded most of them away but he did decent on the few that he kept.

 

[STL Shark]

Because of injuries...that's a disingenuous statement to support an already weak arguement.

I forget, was good forward depth the reason we had to go out and sign Marleau after losing 4 games to start the season?

Not sure but if you’re referencing the same 4 games in which one of our only top 6 forwards was suspended then yeah.

 

[tiburon12]

Not sure but if you’re referencing the same 4 games in which one of our only top 6 forwards was suspended then yeah.

I'm confused, are you saying they signed Marleau to a 1 year contract because Kane was suspended? Even though it was after Kane's suspension was up because Kane was up?

 

[STL Shark]

I'm confused, are you saying they signed Marleau to a 1 year contract because Kane was suspended? Even though it was after Kane's suspension was up because Kane was up?

They realized the top 6 was incredibly thin whenever Kane was out and guys like Bergmann and Yurtaykin had to play up there and got exposed as being out of their league. Marleau got used as a sacrificial lamb in the Top 6 at times and was signed as insurance for injuries so that they didn't have to force feed young guys that were not ready to play big minutes into the Top 6.

The organization is plush with bottom 6 forwards that should all fare well (with the exception of a 3C) assuming there is an addition or two to the Top 6. Gregor, Bergmann, Noesen, Handemark, Kellman, and True are all more than capable as 4th line players while Gregor may be able to step into a 3rd line role this season depending who is on that line with him. The "depth" of the forward group is not the issue. They're plenty deep with bottom 6 players. They just don't have the top end talent to put those guys in the appropriate places in the lineup currently.

Teams that go deep usually have players playing a line below where their talent level indicates. We had guys playing at the ceiling of where their abilities say they MIGHT be able to play last year because there were so many holes at the top.

 

[tiburon12]

They realized the top 6 was incredibly thin whenever Kane was out and guys like Bergmann and Yurtaykin had to play up there and got exposed as being out of their league. Marleau got used as a sacrificial lamb in the Top 6 at times and was signed as insurance for injuries so that they didn't have to force feed young guys that were not ready to play big minutes into the Top 6.

The organization is plush with bottom 6 forwards that should all fare well (with the exception of a 3C) assuming there is an addition or two to the Top 6. Gregor, Bergmann, Noesen, Handemark, Kellman, and True are all more than capable as 4th line players while Gregor may be able to step into a 3rd line role this season depending who is on that line with him. The "depth" of the forward group is not the issue. They're plenty deep with bottom 6 players. They just don't have the top end talent to put those guys in the appropriate places in the lineup currently.

Teams that go deep usually have players playing a line below where their talent level indicates. We had guys playing at the ceiling of where their abilities say they MIGHT be able to play last year because there were so many holes at the top.

Right, I know we had a weak top 6, but I was addressing the fact that other teams with weaker top 6's have a tighter defensive system and we should emulate that. Last year we tried to be aggressive and run and gun, and, in addition to our top 6, our bottom six massively underperformed with the exception of Goodrow. Yes they were forced to play at their ceiling but established guys like Sorensen and Karlsson and Thornton played so badly its hard to be positive about them rebounding and contributing next year. If that's the case, are you really that confident guys like Gregor and Bergman and Yurtaykin and handmark will rise to the occasion? I'm not, I didn't see that this year.

I can't think of our roster and say "our bottom 6 is not a weakness". Too much is unproven and we got burned big time by that last year. Hence the reason I want to see a defense-first system this year like teams like cbj and nyi deployed.

 

[LadyStanley]

I don't know that he might be back