Speculation: 2020-2021 General Lightning Discussion - Defending Champions Edition

[LightningStrikes]

Better hope it won’t be another snooze fest like last time.

 

[Byrddog]

You obviously don't know how contracts work. Joseph and Volkov didn't make anywhere near 900k last season. Joseph had no signing bonuses last season so no money there, he had 182k in performance bonuses but I doubt he hit any of those so got nothing there, his salary in the NHL is 700k but spent less than half the season there so maybe he got 350k of that, his minor salary is 70k and he spent about half the season there so 35k, so Joseph probably made 385k last year which is less than half of 900k. Volkov had a 92k signing bonus, he had no performance bonuses, his NHL salary was 832k but he spent maybe a quarter of the season there so 210k, his minor salary was 70k which he spent the majority of the year so say 50k, so he made around 350k last year again well below 900k. Mitchell Stephens who played more regular season as well as playoff games as either of them signed for 738k, so not sure how or why we would pay the other two 900k?

I doubt either hit any of the bonus numbers either that does not change the fact that those were in the contract and human nature focuses on the high end rather than the low end. And while I have never worked around sports contracts I doubt you have either. Now I managed union employees for many year so im not a contract virgin. And I can assure you of this minimum contracts produce minimum results.

Now while you disagree with my view it does not mean you are 100% right and I am wrong on every point. This seems to have been like the 5th time you have implied I do not know this or that. I give you credit however for breaking down facts like Josephs salary most just spout opinion with nothing to back it up. Now it is great to be the optimist but I assure you that best case scenario is rare and much of what we discuss is speculation and mostly with very limited information. It is difficult to admit but I have been playing, coaching and following this sport for nearly 50 years now. having seen many many oddities over the years. Things changed with the institution of the cap. This has been a year like no other and the impact on the league will be long lasting. When the agreement of this CBA extension happened in the middle of this pandemic a red flag became clear to me. Insofar as the length of no cap increase, initally the cap was flattened for two years. I knew that was not going to be the case and was called out because I think the cap is going to actually fall over the next few seasons and will not make it back to 81 again for maybe 10 years. Well now more and more are saying 5 years that were just convinced that there would be a increase in two years. Now why do I think this? Well look at the two lockout years and the impact they had on the cap and attendance. Now consider that was a full year lockout and a partial year with nothing impacting it other than league issues. Now the entire economy is impacting the situation. In addition the situation in Tampa if complicated by more than a few player contracts that have movment clauses. And after winning a championship each player who is needing a contract is fighting for maximum payout. I recall people pontificating that Sergichev would sign for 2.5 to 2.75 tops and now that Cernak and Cirelli are willing to take lower amounts as well. On many team Cernak is a top 4 guy no questions asked and while I do not think Cirelli is as critical as some he desired by many teams as well. When it comes to Joseph and Volkov I have seen nothing to indicate they are willing to sign for league minimum, why should they? They played on a cup winning team, yes limited but they established a need for someone to look at them at this level. Now are they worth it? Hmmmm Volkov perhaps Joseph I do not think so. But the number are Joseph made a base of 700k and Volkov 832,500. Now "We have issued qualifying offers to the following players: Anthony Cirelli, Erik Cernak, Ross Colton, Mathieu Joseph, Dominik Masin, Mikhail Sergachev, Ben Thomas, and Alex Volkov". This means the minimum offer to Joseph is 764,400 and Volkov 874,125 is there qualifying offer each fall into the area where there QO is 105% of there last contract now as you pointed out they did not play fulltime so the actual dollars was minimal but that has nothing to do with the QO which is based on there last contract These numbers only included base salary and Volkov did actually have bonus earned so his will be even more His QO with bonus is 971,250. Now are these up to 445k more than league minimum and to a team that is currently over the Cap that is a issue. If not they would be signed today. The QO is mute for Cernak and Cirelli who have both excelled so one must consider comprable's Cernak's Brandon Monttour a 96.7 match in skills recieved 3.85 mil Brady Skjei 96.8 match recieved 5.25 mil. Add to that last year the average raise a RFA defenseman got a 21.2% raise and I hope we agree Cernak is well above average so all the speculation that he can be had for 2 to 2.5 mil is wishful thinking its going to be more like 3 to 3.25. As for Cirelli his number are much worse and will demand 4.5.

With all of that I will stand by that it is not feesible to move enough Cap out to get these two signed and fill a 23 man roster that is going to be needed in this CoVid world and remain a dominate team. Now if Stamkos goes on LTIR or VAsi or Point is traded sure the numbers would work but then again will you have a dominate team? Maybe just losing Stammer you can say yes but the other two would be a huge kick in the nads.

 

[PJ817]

Welp, the NHL peeps are having a fun time pitting DALLAS v TBL in same division

#BringIt #BeatThemAgain #GoBolts

Courtesy of:
NHL, NHLPA agree on 2020-21 season: Divisions, key dates and more

 

[DFC]

If we don't mop that division up, the cup was a fluke.

 

[Lightning1995]

Announce the trade already!

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Looks like we will be able to bury a max of 1.075 million of a players contract on the taxi squad. And up to 6 players max, 1 has to be a goalie unless we carry 3 goalies in a game. We put Coburn, a signed Volkov, signed Joseph, and Johnson on the taxi squad, we are under the cap or pretty close.

Looks like we can get away with maybe just moving Killorn alone. Ideally it would still be Johnson, but take what we can get.

All of @Byrddog doom and gloom, and not being able to feasibly see a solution, well here's you solution. What's your spin on why this terrible and we are still doomed?

 

[Sky04]

I doubt either hit any of the bonus numbers either that does not change the fact that those were in the contract and human nature focuses on the high end rather than the low end. And while I have never worked around sports contracts I doubt you have either. Now I managed union employees for many year so im not a contract virgin. And I can assure you of this minimum contracts produce minimum results.

Now while you disagree with my view it does not mean you are 100% right and I am wrong on every point. This seems to have been like the 5th time you have implied I do not know this or that. I give you credit however for breaking down facts like Josephs salary most just spout opinion with nothing to back it up. Now it is great to be the optimist but I assure you that best case scenario is rare and much of what we discuss is speculation and mostly with very limited information. It is difficult to admit but I have been playing, coaching and following this sport for nearly 50 years now. having seen many many oddities over the years. Things changed with the institution of the cap. This has been a year like no other and the impact on the league will be long lasting. When the agreement of this CBA extension happened in the middle of this pandemic a red flag became clear to me. Insofar as the length of no cap increase, initally the cap was flattened for two years. I knew that was not going to be the case and was called out because I think the cap is going to actually fall over the next few seasons and will not make it back to 81 again for maybe 10 years. Well now more and more are saying 5 years that were just convinced that there would be a increase in two years. Now why do I think this? Well look at the two lockout years and the impact they had on the cap and attendance. Now consider that was a full year lockout and a partial year with nothing impacting it other than league issues. Now the entire economy is impacting the situation. In addition the situation in Tampa if complicated by more than a few player contracts that have movment clauses. And after winning a championship each player who is needing a contract is fighting for maximum payout. I recall people pontificating that Sergichev would sign for 2.5 to 2.75 tops and now that Cernak and Cirelli are willing to take lower amounts as well. On many team Cernak is a top 4 guy no questions asked and while I do not think Cirelli is as critical as some he desired by many teams as well. When it comes to Joseph and Volkov I have seen nothing to indicate they are willing to sign for league minimum, why should they? They played on a cup winning team, yes limited but they established a need for someone to look at them at this level. Now are they worth it? Hmmmm Volkov perhaps Joseph I do not think so. But the number are Joseph made a base of 700k and Volkov 832,500. Now "We have issued qualifying offers to the following players: Anthony Cirelli, Erik Cernak, Ross Colton, Mathieu Joseph, Dominik Masin, Mikhail Sergachev, Ben Thomas, and Alex Volkov". This means the minimum offer to Joseph is 764,400 and Volkov 874,125 is there qualifying offer each fall into the area where there QO is 105% of there last contract now as you pointed out they did not play fulltime so the actual dollars was minimal but that has nothing to do with the QO which is based on there last contract These numbers only included base salary and Volkov did actually have bonus earned so his will be even more His QO with bonus is 971,250. Now are these up to 445k more than league minimum and to a team that is currently over the Cap that is a issue. If not they would be signed today. The QO is mute for Cernak and Cirelli who have both excelled so one must consider comprable's Cernak's Brandon Monttour a 96.7 match in skills recieved 3.85 mil Brady Skjei 96.8 match recieved 5.25 mil. Add to that last year the average raise a RFA defenseman got a 21.2% raise and I hope we agree Cernak is well above average so all the speculation that he can be had for 2 to 2.5 mil is wishful thinking its going to be more like 3 to 3.25. As for Cirelli his number are much worse and will demand 4.5.

With all of that I will stand by that it is not feesible to move enough Cap out to get these two signed and fill a 23 man roster that is going to be needed in this CoVid world and remain a dominate team. Now if Stamkos goes on LTIR or VAsi or Point is traded sure the numbers would work but then again will you have a dominate team? Maybe just losing Stammer you can say yes but the other two would be a huge kick in the nads.

When you double down on a bad take and make it worse.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

I think this will only end up saving us Paquette. We'll still trade Johnson + Killorn, and run a 20-man roster. The only cap savings I'm seeing is $1M for Coburn and ~$1.4M for whoever would have rounded out our roster.

Max savings is $2.9M if we keep Johnson and bury him, Coburn, Schenn.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

If we don't mop that division up, the cup was a fluke.

We were 8-3-5 against this new division last season. It's not like we blew all of the teams out the water or anything.

 

[DaBolts]

We were 8-3-5 against this new division last season. It's not like we blew all of the teams out the water or anything.

 

[LightningStrikes]

 

[BoltzManConstant]

Looks like we will be able to bury a max of 1.075 million of a players contract on the taxi squad. And up to 6 players max, 1 has to be a goalie unless we carry 3 goalies in a game. We put Coburn, a signed Volkov, signed Joseph, and Johnson on the taxi squad, we are under the cap or pretty close.

Looks like we can get away with maybe just moving Killorn alone. Ideally it would still be Johnson, but take what we can get.

All of @Byrddog doom and gloom, and not being able to feasibly see a solution, well here's you solution. What's your spin on why this terrible and we are still doomed?

Nah, I'm sure they're not going to get rid of the 20-man minimum on the regular roster. We're only at 19 guys and we're $1.9 million over the cap. We'll need another body at $700k to get to 20 (or whatever the minimum is exactly) and then we're at $2.6m over.

When burying a guy's contract, you're going to need a minimum-contact body to replace him. So that $1.075m savings per buried contract only nets out to slightly under $0.4k.

That means we'd have to bury 7 guys in the minors to get compliant, and we still haven't signed Cirelli or Cernak.

If we can't make trades, LTIR is our solution, not burying contracts.

 

[Byrddog]

Looks like we will be able to bury a max of 1.075 million of a players contract on the taxi squad. And up to 6 players max, 1 has to be a goalie unless we carry 3 goalies in a game. We put Coburn, a signed Volkov, signed Joseph, and Johnson on the taxi squad, we are under the cap or pretty close.

Looks like we can get away with maybe just moving Killorn alone. Ideally it would still be Johnson, but take what we can get.

All of @Byrddog doom and gloom, and not being able to feasibly see a solution, well here's you solution. What's your spin on why this terrible and we are still doomed?

Im still digesting the rules of the taxi squad but circumvention of the CBA is still in force. And while true there is cap savings it applies really to teams that are marginally over the cap say 800k over with 22 players. The situation we are in is over 1.9 and only 19 guys on the roster, So before you start saving you must first have a full roster so you sign Cirelli, Cernak, Joseph, Volkov that gives you 23 guys the number spitballin to sign hose four is 3 mil 2.5 mil 735k for Joseph his QO and Volkovs QO 875k this puts you a little over 9 mil over the cap. Now you trade a 5 mil contract to get you to being 4 mil over but your short a warm body that 4 goes up say 780k for ABB added to the Bus so your still 4.8 above you gonna bury coburn oop's ya have to replace him with Foote that saves you 800k so back to 4 mil over you bury PAquette oop's another warm body needed you bring up Raddish savings 800k so your 3.2 over wash rinse repeat until you reach a number where there are enough players on the bus and in the Taxi. The equation is still outta whack. The good news camp starts on the 3rd so only 10 more days until there is a solution. There will be a solution and we are probably not going to like it.

 

[The Macho King]

Thales taxi squad is going to help a good bit. Still probably want to move both Killer and TJ but I don't think we have to worry about Paquette leaving.

 

[Lightning1995]

Oh no, Kuch may be down

 

[JoVel]

Oh no, Kuch may be down

And people are already suggesting that we'd sit him out just to create cap space.

 

[Hoek]

And people are already suggesting that we'd sit him out just to create cap space.

So dumb. We risk not making the playoffs if he's not playing, thus making the saved cap space irrelevant.

 

[Todd1a]

And people are already suggesting that we'd sit him out just to create cap space.

no kidding if we want cap space we would rather LTIR johnson!

 

[The Gongshow]

 

[LTIR Trickery]

Thinking about additions to take on 4 years of Tyler for Zetterbergs LTIR contract, and DET only has two D (Stetcher and DeKeyser) signed going into 21/22. I don't like the idea of losing Cernak, but that could make a very nice addition and solve at least half of a problem for them.

 

[Todd1a]

Thinking about additions to take on 4 years of Tyler for Zetterbergs LTIR contract, and DET only has two D (Stetcher and DeKeyser) signed going into 21/22. I don't like the idea of losing Cernak, but that could make a very nice addition and solve at least half of a problem for them.

well now that we might lose Kucherov for the whole season maybe I definitely don’t want to trade our 2021 first round draft pick! Or put a condition on that pick traded to Detroit if we miss the playoffs it becomes a 2022 first rounder instead!

 

[Todd1a]

Julien BriseBois: Tampa Bay Lightning 'will be (cap) compliant by the start of the season' - TSN.ca

 

[CupsOverCash]

Doesn't sound good for Kuch but it did say that he would test it out and see how he feels? Maybe some hope for Kucherov as it would suck to have him out for any period of time.

 

[Todd1a]

Doesn't sound good for Kuch but it did say that he would test it out and see how he feels? Maybe some hope for Kucherov as it would suck to have him out for any period of time.

well StAmkos and point will have to carry us till he gets back!

 

[BowDownToVasilevskiy]

well StAmkos and point will have to carry us till he gets back!

Trust the process