2019 University Cup (Lethbridge, AB)

[MiamiHockey]

Regarding putting teams "anywhere" in the seeding, consider this: Good possibility that 2 teams who just finished a physical 3 or 5 game series where they were beating the snot out of each other, now meet again in a sudden death game. I agree with most of the points made here and I think that to rank UofA or UNB #5 or #7 because they lost in the final is a bit of a stretch. I would like to see a format similar to the Frozen Four, with regional tournaments,etc. But no one would pay for that.

Can you explain how this (I'm assuming UNB wins and gets the No. 1 seed ... it's for illustration purposes, so please don't anyone lose their marbles over that assumption):

#1. UNB
#2. Alberta
#3. OUA Champs
#4. OUA Runner-Up
#5. Saskatchewan
#6. St FX
#7. Lethbridge
#8. OUA #3

is any different / better than this ...

#1. UNB
#2. Alberta
#3. St FX
#4. Saskatchewan
#5. OUA Champs
#6. OUA Runner-Up
#7. OUA #3
#8. Lethbridge

Do yourself a favour and look at the First Round matchups. They're pretty much identical.

 

[AUS Fan]

I like the 2nd seeding, but that has been discussed for several years, it is a no-go. Your 1st seeding is also a no-go because of the 2-7 match-up.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

Can you explain how this (I'm assuming UNB wins and gets the No. 1 seed ... it's for illustration purposes, so please don't anyone lose their marbles over that assumption):

#1. UNB
#2. Alberta
#3. OUA Champs
#4. OUA Runner-Up
#5. Saskatchewan
#6. St FX
#7. Lethbridge
#8. OUA #3

is any different / better than this ...

#1. UNB
#2. Alberta
#3. St FX
#4. Saskatchewan
#5. OUA Champs
#6. OUA Runner-Up
#7. OUA #3
#8. Lethbridge

Do yourself a favour and look at the First Round matchups. They're pretty much identical.

If we use last year’s OUA Champ (McGill) and runner-up (Brock) I would say there would be a big difference. In the first scenario St. FX faces McGill and Saskatchewan faces Brock. In the second you would see St. FX against Brock and Saskatchewan against McGill. I think both X/Sask would see that as a significant difference as they would almost certainly rather face Brock.

 

[RED ARMY EAST]

Long layoff for the host Lethbridge Pronghorns, almost a month will pass since they were eliminated.

 

[AUS Fan]

They will be one-and-done when they play, probably Friday night.

 

[FreddyFoyle]

They will be one-and-done when they play, probably Friday night.

Can't see Lethbridge opting to play Thursday night. That would even make it worse.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

I thought I read somewhere that they were playing Thursday...although the author could have just meant that’s when the tournament starts.

 

[RED ARMY EAST]

I would be surprised if they opt with Thursday. The odds of them upsetting a #!/#2 seed will be against them, but I'm sure they knew what they were getting into prior to hosting.
Maybe that was the reason for travelling to N.B. during the break, to get a sniff of UNB, in case of a first game match up?

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

It will be interesting to see if the ELO rating system is used for the final top-ten of the season (the one that is used to determine where to rank conference champions)...if it is used that would take some of the human manipulation out of the equation. For example, Alberta got 150 ELO points in the last ranking while UNB got 135....in order to make up that gap UNB would need to sweep the media vote.

 

[FreddyFoyle]

You can go to the bank now with Alberta getting the #1 ranking in the last poll, and the #1 seeding at the UCup. UNB will be #2 and #2. OUA champ and runner-up TBA will once again be 3 and 4. Sask will probably get the 5 spot.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

I guess it comes down to...is a two game beatdown over the #4 team enough to push UNB past a team who beat the #3 team in three games (all on the road)?

As much as I hate the possibility of inner-conference semi-finals, I’m not sure Alberta loses their #1 ranking.

There is no way Saskatchewan isn’t #5 IMO, which puts X at #6.

 

[lopper]

I guess it comes down to...is a two game beatdown over the #4 team enough to push UNB past a team who beat the #3 team in three games (all on the road)?

As much as I hate the possibility of inner-conference semi-finals, I’m not sure Alberta loses their #1 ranking.

There is no way Saskatchewan isn’t #5 IMO, which puts X at #6.

UNB is better off slotting in at #2 and getting Lethbridge in game 1 after a cross country trek. Without trying to sound disrespectful, the Pronghorns are by far the worst team at the cup. Then ideally a second round matchup against somebody other than Saskatchewan.

 

[AUS Fan]

If UNB is #1 they would play Lethbridge. If they are #2 they will play Lethbridge.

 

[FreddyFoyle]

If UNB is #1 they would play Lethbridge. If they are #2 they will play Lethbridge.

He's not wrong.

 

[RED ARMY EAST]

Regardless, Lethbridge will play UNB or Alberta. They do have input as host and do have the
flexibility to start on Thursday or Friday night. The committee can manipulate the rankings to avoid conference match ups.
Possible pools:
Alberta
OUA #2 (Queens Cup runner up) Guelph?
X
OUA #3 (OUA bronze medal winner) Carlton?

UNB
OUA#1 (Queens ?)
Sask
Lethbridge-host

 

[SuperSquirrel]

Regardless, Lethbridge will play UNB or Alberta. They do have input as host and do have the
flexibility to start on Thursday or Friday night. The committee can manipulate the rankings to avoid conference match ups.
Possible pools:
Alberta
OUA #2 (Queens Cup runner up) Guelph?
X
OUA #3 (OUA bronze medal winner) Carlton?

UNB
OUA#1 (Queens ?)
Sask
Lethbridge-host

I agree with your pools... except I would switch Sask and X.

 

[AUS Fan]

My thoughts on seeding: UofA, UNB, OUA#1, OUA#2, UofS, SFX, LETH, OUA#3.

Thursday pool:
UofA - OUA#3
OUA#2 - SFX

Friday pool:
OUA#1 - UofS
UNB-LETH (Fri night)

 

[Drummer]

Given the current Ranking trends and ELO scores - It's a pretty good bet that ALB & UNB are 1-2 respectively. That USK and SFX are #5 and #6 respectively and LTH is #7 (would have been #8, but changed to avoid meeting ALB).

UNB #1 - nope
Not going to happen. Despite a strong AUS finals, it can also be said that StFX was tired. It is really rare that the committee changes en-masse when neither team loses, which is what would have to happen (UNB would need at least 5 or 6 of the 11 to change their vote). Plus, a large move would be needed because ALB has a 15pt ELO advantage.

St.FX 7th - nope
StFX had a poor showing in the AUS finals, but most of the committee really don't pay that much attention to each game or series - the lower seed lost, that's what is expected. Also, StFX has a 60 point ELO lead over CAR and even more over UWO. So, given their relative low ranking all season - they will be 6th (it's just not low enough to drop to 7th). Plus, at 7th, they would have to play UNB in the first round and if you're going to move LTH to avoid ALB, you're going to move SFX to avoid UNB. Also, the trend has been to rank the CW & AUS runner-ups as 5-6 because they are perceived to be the next best two teams (after the four champions).

SFX vs OUA #1
As mentioned, SFX is going to be 6th and play #3 - the OUA Champion (Guelph or Queen's). Given their poor play in the AUS Finals, I see it as quite possible they lose their opening game. Probably making a mountain out of a mole hill and they bounce back with a defensive clinic and Marchand is top notch, but they played terrible in the AUS finals. This would be great for UNB who is likely to get the winner of this game.

 

[Drummer]

My thoughts on seeding: UofA, UNB, OUA#1, OUA#2, UofS, SFX, LETH, OUA#3.

Thursday pool:
UofA - OUA#3 & OUA#2 - SFX

Friday pool:
OUA#1 - UofS & UNB-LETH (Fri night)

I think you got the OUA #1 & #2 in the wrong spots?

#1 vs #8 & #4 vs #5 | ALB vs OUA-3 & OUA-2 vs USK (THU: ALB at night for the home province fans)
+
#2 vs #7 & #3 vs #6 | UNB vs LTH & OUA-1 vs SFX (FRI: UNB/LTH at night)

 

[FreddyFoyle]

I am a voter. Alberta still gets my #1 vote. Drummer is correct about voting trends.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

As much as I don’t like the possibility of inner-conference semi-finals I agree with most:

1) Alberta vs 8) OUA #3
4) OUA #2 vs. 5) Saskatchewan

2) UNB vs 7) Lethbridge
3) OUA #1 vs 6) St. FX

As was the case last year, the committee only manipulates the rankings to avoid inner-conference matchups in the first round. They can’t make the draw with the assumption certain teams are going to win in the first round. If the top 4 seeds advance (ie/ no “upsets”) it would be CW vs OUA #2 and UNB vs OUA #1.

I hope Carleton takes the OUA bronze...their physical play against Alberta would be interesting.

As much as UNB fans probably don’t want to see St. FX, their pool is arguably much weaker than Alberta’s. Plus, like Drummer mentioned, I wouldn’t be shocked to see X lose their first game.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

As for the top ten...just like in the NCAA it seems it doesn’t matter how many you lose, but when. UNB had the better regular season and playoff record compared to Alberta, but the Golden Bears lost most of their games early and UNB lost both of theirs after Christmas.

 

[Bob Stauffer]

Alberta will be remaining #1 on my ballot.
I will have UNB at #2 and Sask at #3.
Would've had SMU at #4 but they spit the bit.
Distinct possibility that we end up with the exact same University Cup semi-finals as last year....which with all due respect to St. FX, favors UNB big time.
I give credit to X who to me are consistently in a really good 2nd tier of USports teams with Saskatchewan year-in and year-out...BUT...I don't think this one of the X-Men's better teams.
Conversely I believe Saskatchewan has really benefitted from getting out of the dump that is Rutherford Rink.
I think the Huskies' frankly are in better shape than they have been in the past.
They hung with the Bears for all three games of the Conference Final.
So this year I think Alberta has a tougher Semi matchup than last year in Fredericton.
That said I think the Golden Bears have a higher ceiling with this year's team than last seasons'.

OUA has gone what 0-9 last 3 years.
I'd be a little leary of Carleton though

 

[Drummer]

Interesting to see on the ENMAX site that tickets for Thursday night are 'on sale'.

All other games (Thursday afternoon and both games on Friday) only come available on the 11th. This implies (to me) early purchases for local Lethbridge fans for their game.

So - it looks like Lethbridge has chosen to play on Thursday night.

(maybe their hoping to cash in on the Golden Bear fans coming for Friday night and the weekend)

 

[MiamiHockey]

So - it looks like Lethbridge has chosen to play on Thursday night.

(maybe their hoping to cash in on the Golden Bear fans coming for Friday night and the weekend)

This is not that puzzling - Lethbridge has an average attendance of roughly 200 ... Alberta averages over 1000, and has a much larger alumni base. I'd expect a lot of Alberta alumni in southern Alberta. Keep in mind that in Lethbridge they are competing with the WHL Hurricanes for fan support.