Speculation: 2019 Off Season Roster Discussion #5 - OR - The Everlasting GobStromer

[_Del_]

Agreed. I don't think fights are the best way to measure toughness. Hits are tracked so inconsistently I'm not sure that works either though.

Doesn't much matter what your metric is. We are soft.

 

[_Del_]

This is the last 'juicing' of a more or less failed rebuild to see if it can make the playoffs

Yep. This is it. This is our "window". Which, again, is why the decision not to pursue a Dzingle or Ferland or other depth is rather mind-numbing.

 

[cobra427]

He's basically out of budget space and trade ammo. All pieces are signed or earning their keep. There is no major reconfiguring to be done.

This is the last 'juicing' of a more or less failed rebuild to see if it can make the playoffs. Come next season it will be roughly the same roster minus one expensive player to pay for Keller (probably Stepan). What you're looking at is the problem faced when a rebuild sputters out standings wise while simultaneously losing your cheap ELC players. There's only two players remaining from when Chayka inherited the team so he's not exactly lazy or loathe to change things up. He's just running out of options at this stage.

Signing Dvorak and Chychrun to longer contracts was actually a clever attempt at extending the window by reducing future budget crunch. If Dvorak outperforms Stepan and Chych Goligoski, it's a genius move. Given the upward pressure on salaries, it's unlikely both players completely crap out or become eyesores contractually.

Its not any less or more likely that DVO/Chych work out or fail. Chayka guessed on both contracts, gave them term and dollars but they are not proven yet. Those signings, and the Domi/Strome trades make me question him as a GM. I hope he is right, but if he is, its still a guess on his part, 50/50 odds.

 

[WrinkledPossum]

Yep. This is it. This is our "window". Which, again, is why the decision not to pursue a Dzingle or Ferland or other depth is rather mind-numbing.

Doesn't much matter what your metric is. We are soft.

It really puzzles me as to why we didn't sign Ferland. His deal with Vancouver is very fair, i have trouble believing that 3.5m would have broke our internal budget.

He would've made me feel great about this roster making the playoffs. Which I admit is a bit much to say about a 40point player but he's exactly what we're missing. We need toughness, a 3rd line winger, and depth. He solves all 3. Can play up and down the line up and he's a solid 3rd liner who still has some potential. With him, Crouse and Soderberg we could have had 3 lines with someone tough. Which would also make perfect compliments to Toccs pairs system.

 

[Matias Maccete]

Doesn't much matter what your metric is. We are soft.

Absolutely, I was just questioning how to measure how soft a team is. Just from watching us the passed two years, I'd say we are.

 

[rt]

The Dzingel deal is even better value, IMO. But I’d take either Ferland on his deal or Dzingel on his. Heck, I’d even take Johansson on his deal, given that it’s only two years. Those are three UFA deals I’d have happily matched. In the case of Dzingel, I’d have added more cash to it. I’d have happily gone up to the MoJo hit on Dzingel.

 

[rt]

I’m still really hoping for Boyle or Maroon.

I don’t have much hope for Williams but I’d be pretty ecstatic. I’d give Williams one year, 5m (with 4m of that in SB) and a full NMC so he can call his shot at the deadline if we’re out of it.

I’d happily do the same for Jumbo Joe, but I have even less hope that he’d be at all interested.

 

[Jakey53]

I have high hopes for Dvorak this season. Not for Hayton. I hope he turns out great. I don’t think it will be so soon. Merkley could be something too. Doubt it will be this season. Bunting I don’t have any hope for being an impact nhl player. Maybe an nhl player but not s meaningful one.

What is your definition of a meaningful NHL player? I'm so happy we have moved on from Cousins, Archibald and Kempe. I thought RT would want at least one if not two back.

 

[hbk]

We seriously can't be in tears because we didn't resign any of Archibald, Kempe, or Cousins. 2/3 will be available on waivers as early as September. Save your concerns for things that matter.

 

[rt]

What is your definition of a meaningful NHL player? I'm so happy we have moved on from Cousins, Archibald and Kempe. I thought RT would want at least one if not two back.

I don’t think Hayton being sheltered as a 4th line LW/healthy scratch does him or the team any good. Not beyond 9 games, anyway.

I think Merkley first needs to show he can have a healthy, productive AHL season before I start to get my hopes up that he can have a healthy productive NHL season.

I think Bunting’s absolutely upside is a lesser version of Cousins or Archibald.

Cousins and Archibald represented tremendous value last season for the price. Scored a bit, agitated a lot, worked hard, drew penalties, and stayed healthy. I don’t think Merkley or Bunting are ready to provide what Cousins and Archibald were able to provide.

 

[rt]

We seriously can't be in tears because we didn't resign any of Archibald, Kempe, or Cousins. 2/3 will be available on waivers as early as September. Save your concerns for things that matter.

I don’t think I’d have matched either contract. I think Cousins and Archibald are still pretty darn good value even on their new deals, but I wouldn’t have matched.

Dzingel, Ferland and MoJo? Absolutely I would have.

I don’t think we’ve done enough to solidify our playoff chances. I think we’ve tinkered and we’re going to need a hell of a lot of luck. For a guy like Chayka who famously doesn’t want to depend on hope, it sure feels like he’s just plain hoping to me. I’d have liked to seen him take out some insurance.

We have a new most dangerous player in Kessel. It cost us our existing most dangerous player. An upgrade, but a tinker.

Soderberg is definitely better than Panik, but again, we gained one and lost the other.

These upgrades are great, but we also cut loose the depth we did have and did rely on with injuries in Cousins, Archibald and Connauton. And we didn’t replace it. We just no longer have those NHL pieces that can help out if injuries get bad.

Instead of learning a lesson about how critical depth is when injuries hit last season, Chayka has taken a “lighting doesn’t strike twice” hope and a prayer approach. Crossing fingers isn’t the same as buying insurance.

 

[Jakey53]

Its not any less or more likely that DVO/Chych work out or fail. Chayka guessed on both contracts, gave them term and dollars but they are not proven yet. Those signings, and the Domi/Strome trades make me question him as a GM. I hope he is right, but if he is, its still a guess on his part, 50/50 odds.

Domi ended up us getting Kessel, so we lose in the age category, but gain in the character category, and in the Strome deal we received Schmaltz, so that ends up a wash, (unless Strome continues his development) so those two deals won't get a GM fired. Now, lets move on to Chick. He came back from a serious injury and still got 20 pts., and if you pro rate than over 82 games it's 31 pts. That is pretty good, the problem here is if he can stay healthy. Chick has had the off season to train, not sitting on his duff while recovering, so I don't think his contract is all that bad, might end up being a bargain. DVO is the one that has to pull up his socks. He plays a 200 ft. game, solid in the dot. If you pro rate his production over a 82 games span he would be a 29 pts. Like Chick, he had the off season to train, so I expect 40 - 50 pts. from DVO this year, and if he does that, then he has earned his contract.

 

[rt]

Domi ended up us getting Kessel, so we lose in the age category, but gain in the character category, and in the Strome deal we received Schmaltz, so that ends up a wash, (unless Strome continues his development) so those two deals won't get a GM fired. Now, lets move on to Chick. He came back from a serious injury and still got 20 pts., and if you pro rate than over 82 games it's 31 pts. That is pretty good, the problem here is if he can stay healthy. Chick has had the off season to train, not sitting on his duff while recovering, so I don't think his contract is all that bad, might end up being a bargain. DVO is the one that has to pull up his socks. He plays a 200 ft. game, solid in the dot. If you pro rate his production over a 82 games span he would be a 29 pts. Like Chick, he had the off season to train, so I expect 40 - 50 pts. from DVO this year, and if he does that, then he has earned his contract.

I wouldn’t be as mad about losing Domi and POJ if we had Kessel last year instead of Galchenyuk.

 

[Jakey53]

I don’t think Hayton being sheltered as a 4th line LW/healthy scratch does him or the team any good. Not beyond 9 games, anyway.

I think Merkley first needs to show he can have a healthy, productive AHL season before I start to get my hopes up that he can have a healthy productive NHL season.

I think Bunting’s absolutely upside is a lesser version of Cousins or Archibald.

Cousins and Archibald represented tremendous value last season for the price. Scored a bit, agitated a lot, worked hard, drew penalties, and stayed healthy. I don’t think Merkley or Bunting are ready to provide what Cousins and Archibald were able to provide.

This training camp will give us a better idea what we have in Merkley, and he like DVO and Chick, has to stay healthy. I think Bunting can replace Cousins or Archibald if called upon.

 

[Jakey53]

We seriously can't be in tears because we didn't resign any of Archibald, Kempe, or Cousins. 2/3 will be available on waivers as early as September. Save your concerns for things that matter.

Exactly. The only reason those three were meaningful to the Yotes was because of our injury situation.

 

[rt]

This training camp will give us a better idea what we have in Merkley, and he like DVO and Chick, has to stay healthy. I think Bunting can replace Cousins or Archibald if called upon.

Bunting is two years younger than Cousins and Archibald so it’s possible that he catches up.

 

[rt]

Exactly. The only reason those three were meaningful to the Yotes was because of our injury situation.

And we’re done getting injured? That’s over with now? That’s my point.

 

[cobra427]

Domi ended up us getting Kessel, so we lose in the age category, but gain in the character category, and in the Strome deal we received Schmaltz, so that ends up a wash, (unless Strome continues his development) so those two deals won't get a GM fired. Now, lets move on to Chick. He came back from a serious injury and still got 20 pts., and if you pro rate than over 82 games it's 31 pts. That is pretty good, the problem here is if he can stay healthy. Chick has had the off season to train, not sitting on his duff while recovering, so I don't think his contract is all that bad, might end up being a bargain. DVO is the one that has to pull up his socks. He plays a 200 ft. game, solid in the dot. If you pro rate his production over a 82 games span he would be a 29 pts. Like Chick, he had the off season to train, so I expect 40 - 50 pts. from DVO this year, and if he does that, then he has earned his contract.

I see your points but Chayka is 0-4 on those deals as of today. Schmaltz/DVO/Chych might all be better, have better years and stay uninjured. Kessel is the only for sure bet. After Chych plays 82 games in the top 4 and gets 30+ points, and after DVO tops 40 points, then you sign them to their current deals, not before, thats my point, chayka is guessing/hoping a little here. I hope he is right

 

[LuckyNumber11]

Our lineup at full health is definitely better than last years. But without full health, it certainly gets a little bit closer depending on who gets injured. I fully agree that the next men up being Bunting and Merkley, and even to a lesser extent Fasching, Chaput, and Pederson, will leave me skeptical.

 

[Coyotedroppings]

A lot of this reads like "The NHL is not a development league".

 

[azcanuck]

Domi ended up us getting Kessel, so we lose in the age category, but gain in the character category, and in the Strome deal we received Schmaltz, so that ends up a wash, (unless Strome continues his development) so those two deals won't get a GM fired. Now, lets move on to Chick. He came back from a serious injury and still got 20 pts., and if you pro rate than over 82 games it's 31 pts. That is pretty good, the problem here is if he can stay healthy. Chick has had the off season to train, not sitting on his duff while recovering, so I don't think his contract is all that bad, might end up being a bargain. DVO is the one that has to pull up his socks. He plays a 200 ft. game, solid in the dot. If you pro rate his production over a 82 games span he would be a 29 pts. Like Chick, he had the off season to train, so I expect 40 - 50 pts. from DVO this year, and if he does that, then he has earned his contract.

How do we gain "in character" Kessel>Domi. Kessel is a high maintenance player.
The Coyotes somewhat mitigated the Domi/AG deal by getting Kessel but it's still a clear loss.
What many people didnt account for was how much better of a contract situation Domi was over AG. And clearly the much better player (like I told both teams forums at the time).
Domi is a budding star on a very good deal. Kessel is a terrific addition to the Yotes but he's only got a couple of good years left.

 

[Jakey53]

How do we gain "in character" Kessel>Domi. Kessel is a high maintenance player.
The Coyotes somewhat mitigated the Domi/AG deal by getting Kessel but it's still a clear loss.
What many people didnt account for was how much better of a contract situation Domi was over AG. And clearly the much better player (like I told both teams forums at the time).
Domi is a budding star on a very good deal. Kessel is a terrific addition to the Yotes but he's only got a couple of good years left.

Domi had a fantastic year, but one year does not make a career, so I think a person would be wise and wait for a couple of years. I think Domi was a very high maintenance player, who likes to march to the beat of his own drum. I know I'm in the minority, but I was not sad to see Domi go. I mean he was fun to watch, but he hurt the team with some of his antics.

 

[azcanuck]

Domi had a fantastic year, but one year does not make a career, so I think a person would be wise and wait for a couple of years. I think Domi was a very high maintenance player, who likes to march to the beat of his own drum. I know I'm in the minority, but I was not sad to see Domi go. I mean he was fun to watch, but he hurt the team with some of his antics.

Domi was a player on the rise.He was the type of player you can see who dominated and carried the play even if his stats didnt show it in his first couple of years.
He wanted to play in a big market. He grew up with his dad in a big market. It's understandable. He's the type of guy who cares and wants that pressure.
Guys like Kessel? He wilted in toronto. He'll do fine here. And he has a long history of being high maintenance.

Can you provide some evidence Domi was high maintenance and "marched to the beat of his drum"? I'm just curious about that. He's loved in Montreal.

 

[Schemp]

Domi threw away a season by breaking his hand, so I do question his character.
My bold prediction:
Soderberg will surprise people. I see him having a career year. He and Kessel should improve the pp.

Keller - Soderberg - Schmaltz
Grabner - Stepan - Kessel
Crouse - Dvorak - Hinostroza
Hayton - Richardson - Fischer/Garland

Depth is a concern if we plan on making the playoffs and I see us on the bubble at the moment (with a healthy roster)

 

[hbk]

Biggest issue Max has is his dad who likes to call the shots.