2019 NHL Draft II - June 21 - Who’s your pick????

[ParisSaintGermain]

Podkolzin playing well in the final of the U18 so far; 1G +1A and very present generally. If this guy falls to 14, we should be alright.

 

[hbk]

Podkolzin playing well in the final of the U18 so far; 1G +1A and very present generally. If this guy falls to 14, we should be alright.

If he’s available at 14 it’s the equivalent of winning the draft lottery.

 

[BUX7PHX]

No way Podkolzin drops that far. All of these mocks are starting to see more forwards going top 13. We are going to get the top choice of the 3rd or 4th tier of forwards, as opposed to the last forward in the 2nd or 3rd tier. We can never have nice things.

 

[hbk]

Just a comment on when a run on D will start.

Take this as a FYI but Redline's April rankings has 5 D gone by 14. Not one of them plays for the Vancouver giants. Run starts around 10. Not a mock draft but their rankings.

 

[Grimes]

Just a comment on when a run on D will start.

Take this as a FYI but Redline's April rankings has 5 D gone by 14. Not one of them plays for the Vancouver giants. Run starts around 10. Not a mock draft but their rankings.

In my opinion, the highest to lowest chances of a team grabbing a defenseman before us.

Chicago grab Byram.

Flordia I would imagine goes defenseman.

Detroit could trade back to go defenseman. Maybe grabs York to trade back to 9OA as an example.

Vancouver could look for a Hughes partner. Needs more forwards too but is a rich market that can attract UFA. If they are sitting between Bokdy, Newhook and Soderstrom they may take the defense.

Edmonton could go defenseman. Really needs a bit of scoring wingers and top pairing defensemen (which I'm not sure they will think they can get).

Buffalo could use defensemen but have later picks to do so

Anaheim really can go either way, they need a lot of pieces and are more of a retool than rebuild right now so I expect they go BPA on their list which could be either.

Minnesota is in a similar boat to Anaheim but is more in a win now than the Ducks.

Realistically I think for sure three of the teams listed above goes defenseman. If Byram drops past 3OA than a higher chance for 2.

Byram and then two of (Soderstrom, York, Broberg).

 

[BUX7PHX]

Just a comment on when a run on D will start.

Take this as a FYI but Redline's April rankings has 5 D gone by 14. Not one of them plays for the Vancouver giants. Run starts around 10. Not a mock draft but their rankings.

So, basically, it might be safe to say that Redline has Byram in the top 10, with 8 other forwards - Hughes, Kakko, Podkolzin, Cozens, Dach, Turcotte, Zegras, and Krebs. Caufield is probably in the 12-18 range, along with Boldy, but Caufield might have played his way up ahead of the #14 slot. I think Boldy is somewhere right around there.

I still stand by the thought that Vancouver, Minnesota and Florida are the only teams after 7 and before our pick that might take a defenseman. But that would mean all three of those teams would have to pass on the lowest rated forward, as I assume that Philly takes one of Boldy or Caufield (give up Wayne Simmonds, and find a RW replacement).

If Caufield is indeed available at #14 - does Chayka shy away due to size concerns? Does he seem like the type of GM to do that sort of thing?

 

[BUX7PHX]

In my opinion, the highest to lowest chances of a team grabbing a defenseman before us.

Chicago grab Byram.

Flordia I would imagine goes defenseman.

Detroit could trade back to go defenseman. Maybe grabs York to trade back to 9OA as an example.

Vancouver could look for a Hughes partner. Needs more forwards too but is a rich market that can attract UFA. If they are sitting between Bokdy, Newhook and Soderstrom they may take the defense.

Edmonton could go defenseman. Really needs a bit of scoring wingers and top pairing defensemen (which I'm not sure they will think they can get).

Buffalo could use defensemen but have later picks to do so

Anaheim really can go either way, they need a lot of pieces and are more of a retool than rebuild right now so I expect they go BPA on their list which could be either.

Minnesota is in a similar boat to Anaheim but is more in a win now than the Ducks.

Realistically I think for sure three of the teams listed above goes defenseman. If Byram drops past 3OA than a higher chance for 2.

Byram and then two of (Soderstrom, York, Broberg).

Is there a reasonable way to move up in the draft?

#14 and Goligoski for #6 and Zetterberg's contract? Gets Detroit out of a hole with LTIR for Zetterberg and opens a door for them to reduce their cap hit. The Red Wings have Dekeyser, Ericsson, Bowey, Daley, Cholowski, Hronek, and Green returning.

Daley doesn't have a lot left in the tank and Dekeyser and Ericsson didn't appear to have great years, so maybe this is an opportunity to bridge the gap of having a lot of youth and some 35+ players for Detroit in Daley and Ericsson that may not be at their best.

 

[hbk]

So, basically, it might be safe to say that Redline has Byram in the top 10, with 8 other forwards - Hughes, Kakko, Podkolzin, Cozens, Dach, Turcotte, Zegras, and Krebs. Caufield is probably in the 12-18 range, along with Boldy, but Caufield might have played his way up ahead of the #14 slot. I think Boldy is somewhere right around there.

I still stand by the thought that Vancouver, Minnesota and Florida are the only teams after 7 and before our pick that might take a defenseman. But that would mean all three of those teams would have to pass on the lowest rated forward, as I assume that Philly takes one of Boldy or Caufield (give up Wayne Simmonds, and find a RW replacement).

If Caufield is indeed available at #14 - does Chayka shy away due to size concerns? Does he seem like the type of GM to do that sort of thing?

Byram isn't in their top 15.

Chayka is a GM who believes priority is C and D; especially if they are Impact players. That being said he did take Keller who is a winger so skill with speed comes first.

I think you will see 2 D off the board by pick 8.

 

[Mosby]

Protas in PA is having a bit of a playoff coming out party. Back-to-back hat tricks. He'll have a big role in PA next year with Leason moving on. He's a centre. Probably a third or fourth round pick.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Byram isn't in their top 15.

Chayka is a GM who believes priority is C and D; especially if they are Impact players. That being said he did take Keller who is a winger so skill with speed comes first.

I think you will see 2 D off the board by pick 8.

Interesting that Byram isnt in the top 15, yet most appear to have him as the first D taken. Was Redline's report completed at the beginning of April and additional jockeying has taken place?

Chicago, Detroit, Vancouver, Minnesota, and Florida are the teams that could target D. Maybe Anaheim.

Prospect and roster pool-wise, Detroit and Anaheim need defense the most. L.A., Florida, and Minnesota look good at the NHL level, but very thin on prospects.

Still think there is far more value at the forward position.

Draft site has us getting Boldy, with 4 D going from 9-12.

Mynhldraft.com has us taking Kaliyev (2 D in their top 13).

Tankathon has 2 D in the top 13. We get Kaliyev.

ESPN has 3 D in the top 13 and we get Caufield. They also have Kaliyev in the top 12.

McKenna's has 3 D in the top 13. One of them is York. We get Caufield.

Button has 3 D and a goalie in the top 13. He shows us taking Harley, and Caufield did not crack his top 15 (which I think changes after Worlds).

I just keep seeing a closer consensus to only 2 or 3 D taken in the top 13 amongst all of these mocks. The forwards that are clearly at the top are Hughes, Kakko, Podkolzin, Dach, Cozens, Turcotte, Zegras, Boldy, Krebs, and Caufield. I count 10 forwards there before the separation for players like Lavoie, Newhook, and Kaliyev. The math insinuates that we don't get one of the first or second tier forwards.

I would gladly take Newhook at 14, but everything in these mocks circles back to losing out on one of the "more elite" forwards. If the picks were a little more spread or there were more D being taken between the mocks, then it is possible for one of those 10 forwards to fall. The mocks are consistent with Byram and Soderstrom typically going, but then it is a variation of Broberg, York, or Harley as the 3rd D taken in the mocks that show 3 in the top 13. I dont like our chances of a top forward falling.

 

[SniperHF]

That being said he did take Keller who is a winger so skill with speed comes first.

This reminds me of something I yelled at someone on the mainboard about last year. And it could be useful for considering who Chayka might pick.

Much is made of how into stats and such Chayka is but very little is known about *exactly* what kind of metrics he is using.

Player performance is changeable but a player’s skillset is more consistent, Lane says.
“A lot of the things we track are fundamental skills in the game, such as your ability to get the puck off an opponent and retrieve pucks, your ability to make plays, things like this, and those sort of fundamental skills of the game are a lot more consistent and a lot less volatile when you look at these players.”

One area they tracked was the ability to make plays under pressure. When I ask for details of how the tracking is done, Lane says he can’t talk on the record about the process. “I can’t really go into too much detail, to be honest, because it’s sort of what our competitive advantage is, all the detail we track with those plays.”

“I think they have their place,” Lane says of the Corsi and Fenwick metrics. “The fact of the matter is there’s only so much data available to the general public and people are trying to do the best they can with what they have. That’s why we built this business, to bring more data and do better.”
But, again, one problem with mining the NHL’s data is its unreliability, Lane says. “We looked at the data that was out there and we didn’t think it was reliable enough.

When he talk about mathematical models, what does he mean?
“Any of the models that are out there modelling the game through Corsi and Fenwick and PDO and stuff like this, they don’t get down to the root of it, of understanding player performance in my opinion.”

Cult of Hockey: Inside the Moneypuck methods of new Arizona GM John Chayka


Chayka cares very much about tools, he may not have exactly the same take as his brother in law but I'd bet they are pretty closely aligned.

 

[Jagged Ice]

Has anyone seen the 2018 re-draft on the main board's prospect forum? It's as if Hayton doesn't even exist by most.

 

[Mosby]

Could see us taking Harley if we plan to trade POJ.

 

[Prarievarg]

Could see us taking Harley if we plan to trade POJ.

I'd rather we trade the pick in that case.

 

[tucknroll]

I'd rather we trade the pick in that case.

If a team was willing to take POJ instead of 14OV pick in the same trade (which i seriously doubt would happen) id rather trade POJ way more than the pick.
Harley already looks more promising than POJ, that said i really hope we don't take a D in the first 3 rounds. Unless it looks like a steal of course

 

[tucknroll]

Personally as of now, unless one of Turcotte, Krebs, Dach, Byram or Zegras..Maybe Boldy (in order of personal desire) falls to 14, then id trade down to 20-24, Take one of Tomasino, Suzuki, Pelletier, Nick Robertson or possibly Sam Poulin
Look at players like Rees, Mastrosimone, Legare or anyone previously mentioned in the second round. (I could see McMichael being the Akil Thomas of this draft and possibly falling, he like Thomas would be a great pick up and a steal in the second)
Third round i look at players like Maccelli, Zach Jones, Farinacci, Soogard, Constantinou
Fourth round i like Fensor, Karl Henriksson, Tieksola, Blake Murray (though he's been rising again recently and will likely go 2nd or 3rd round), Koster or again any player previously mentioned that may fall
Likhachyov is someone id look into in the last 3 rounds too, then players like Rizzo (i could see falling, obviously i have no clue how far), Del Galzio, Attard ...
This will likely change a bit after U-18 but probably not a lot. If anything just more names to add likely

And agains i can't stress this enough... If this team is trading for picks i hope their for next years draft

After the U-18 i still really like this list, though I do have some movement. Ignoring the fact players that may potentially fall to us after the first round and focussing on players that are projected to go in that area (players all listed in order of preference )

First round
Turcotte, Krebs, Zegras, Dach, Byram (id trade down if he was available though)
if they are gone than id trade down a few spots and target Tomasino (main target), Newhook, Brink, Rees, Robertson, Poulin, Pelletier

Second round
Mastrosimone, Legare, Fagemo, Cajkovic, Tracey

Third round
Maccelli, Zach Jones, Soogard, Henriksson, Aaltonen, Keppen, Constantinou

Rounds 4-5
Tieksola, Blake Murray, Farinacci (more than likely gone), Sheshin

6-7
Likhachyov, Del Gaizo, Fensore, Attard, Rizzo, Koster, Svoboda, Washkurak

 

[SR]

Whats the story with Connor McMicheal? One good season in London, havent seen him on any lists in the first round. Usually Knights translate well in the NHL especially under Hunter.

I know nothing about drafting or draft classes.

 

[rt]

Whats the story with Connor McMicheal? One good season in London, havent seen him on any lists in the first round. Usually Knights translate well in the NHL especially under Hunter.

I know nothing about drafting or draft classes.

I like McMichael a great deal. Always involved in the play. Quick thinker, quick decision maker, good hands in tight and under pressure. Good quickness. Executes reliably in the thick of the action.

Based on the couple of games I've seen, I don't think McMichael is really a "fast" skater in the traditional sense. I think he has great positioning, makes quick plays, and is great with the puck in tight spaces. It kind of makes him seem like he's all over the ice because he's so involved in every play, but he's rarely speeding around out there.

Remember Chayka’s second favorite buzzword after “premium” is “details”. That’s what I see in McMichael; he’s got “details” down.

McMichael was first in team scoring in London.

As much as I like this prospect, at pick #14, I'd rather swing for the fences on a riskier prospect with higher upside. At this point I'm guessing only 1-2 D are taken before our spot, and we end up not having either of Newhook or Caufield to choose from. Still, even risky picks like Kaliyev or Brink, who have much higher upside than McMichael are more appealing to me right now. I can't imagine McMichael will be a star player. It's possible that if a lot of things go right with Kaliyev or Brink they could be. I want to swing for the fences.

Chayka has built a team that's going to be picking in the middle of the first round for the foreseeable future. We can't afford to buy talent. We have to take risks at the draft table if we're ever going to find a hidden gem.

 

[hbk]

I’d prefer we drop down a pick up extra picks if we target McMicheal.

 

[rt]

I like McMichael at least as much as I liked Hayton a year ago. Guess that’s why I’m not a scout. Haha.

 

[Sinurgy]

This reminds me of something I yelled at someone on the mainboard about last year. And it could be useful for considering who Chayka might pick.

Much is made of how into stats and such Chayka is but very little is known about *exactly* what kind of metrics he is using.



Cult of Hockey: Inside the Moneypuck methods of new Arizona GM John Chayka


Chayka cares very much about tools, he may not have exactly the same take as his brother in law but I'd bet they are pretty closely aligned.

Man that was a really interesting article, thanks for posting it. I've often wondered if they had proprietary models but now it would seem they have proprietary metrics as well which makes much more sense. I'd like to know how they train their video analysts to be able to spot said metrics and record them since it's obviously more complicated than simply SOG or steal. I wonder just how creative they get?!

 

[hbk]

I like McMichael at least as much as I liked Hayton a year ago. Guess that’s why I’m not a scout. Haha.

Best development system in the chl. That alone has my attention.

 

[hbk]

Man that was a really interesting article, thanks for posting it. I've often wondered if they had proprietary models but now it would seem they have proprietary metrics as well which makes much more sense. I'd like to know how they train their video analysts to be able to spot said metrics and record them since it's obviously more complicated than simply SOG or steal. I wonder just how creative they get?!

We learned a great deal with the Hayton pick. Absolutely they are focused on proprietary metrics and based on the massive development steps taken by Hayton this season it's hard not to get excited about it. Hayton proved a number of us part time amateurs wrong and the organization displayed a great confidence in their ability to project. it's still early but I liked that we displayed a certain level of arrogance/confidence on our ability to identify talent. I'm enthused as well with what I saw with Jenik last year and the raw attributes that Bahl provides. That was a statement draft.

 

[Mosby]

Best development system in the chl. That alone has my attention.

Curious to see what happens with the Knights if the Hunters leave. Mark is in the running to become GM of the Oilers, and I'm curious if Dale joins him as coach.

McMichael is fine, but I don't see a "wow" factor (he's not "premium"). Solid but not inspiring. It'd be like using a first rounder on Dvorak.

 

[Jakey53]

We learned a great deal with the Hayton pick. Absolutely they are focused on proprietary metrics and based on the massive development steps taken by Hayton this season it's hard not to get excited about it. Hayton proved a number of us part time amateurs wrong and the organization displayed a great confidence in their ability to project. it's still early but I liked that we displayed a certain level of arrogance/confidence on our ability to identify talent. I'm enthused as well with what I saw with Jenik last year and the raw attributes that Bahl provides. That was a statement draft.

As we all know, Chayka revamped our scouting department, so let's wait and see if he is boy wonder.