2019 for Disney a historic dominance of box office

[bleedblue1223]

Remember people thought they were nuts for spending 4 billion for Lucasfilm, have to get those $$ back and quite frankly that's what they're doing. Pumping out as much content as possible while missing the boat on quality at time.

I don't think the comp from Disney vs. Netflix is a good thing. Consumers have less content divided between two services at a higher cost.

The competition is good to an extent. The competition is forcing the streaming services to produce more content and hopefully that means better content, but the market is definitely over-saturated with everyone trying to get market share. After a few years, many will die out, we are seeing that in the live tv streaming markets with Playstation Vue failing, despite the product being very good. Now all the others are starting to hike prices and people will drop them. The same thing will happen to the non-live streaming services in a few years.

People will only keep about 3 streaming services on average. A lot of these services will fail because of that, especially as prices rise.

 

[chicagoskycam]

The competition is good to an extent. The competition is forcing the streaming services to produce more content and hopefully that means better content, but the market is definitely over-saturated with everyone trying to get market share. After a few years, many will die out, we are seeing that in the live tv streaming markets with Playstation Vue failing, despite the product being very good. Now all the others are starting to hike prices and people will drop them. The same thing will happen to the non-live streaming services in a few years.

People will only keep about 3 streaming services on average. A lot of these services will fail because of that, especially as prices rise. Disney+ is going to have to raise their price to maintain the content they are producing.

Disney, CBS, ect the content producers will never die out. Now, they can choose to supplement their revenue by selling content still to Prime, Netflix, Hulu...ect. Possibly after it's been out for a while. Traditional TV services are dying already and losing subscribers. ATT has already rebranded it's streaming service as it decides what to do with Direct TV.

In Jan I will have only streaming services again and while I can get live TV via Hulu, I don't really care about it as much anymore.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Disney, CBS, ect the content producers will never die out. Now, they can choose to supplement their revenue by selling content still to Prime, Netflix, Hulu...ect. Possibly after it's been out for a while. Traditional TV services are dying already and losing subscribers. ATT has already rebranded it's streaming service as it decides what to do with Direct TV.

In Jan I will have only streaming services again and while I can get live TV via Hulu, I don't really care about it as much anymore.

Right, the streaming services will eventually consolidate and essentially loan the content that people actually want to the services that win out. I'm not saying those companies as a whole will fail, just their streaming segment might fail.

 

[discostu]

Remember people thought they were nuts for spending 4 billion for Lucasfilm, have to get those $$ back and quite frankly that's what they're doing. Pumping out as much content as possible while missing the boat on quality at time.

I don't think the comp from Disney vs. Netflix is a good thing. Consumers have less content divided between two services at a higher cost.

Consumers will have more costs in the short term, but if Netflix were to continue to be the primary service out there, they would be in a position to start charging more to consumers, and paying less to content creators. They can also negotiate deals with ISPs for faster network speeds that further would add barriers to entry.

 

[chicagoskycam]

Consumers will have more costs in the short term, but if Netflix were to continue to be the primary service out there, they would be in a position to start charging more to consumers, and paying less to content creators. They can also negotiate deals with ISPs for faster network speeds that further would add barriers to entry.

I think Netflix has decent comp from Hulu and Prime already. What we are seeing now is fragmentation in streaming services where you used to get Marvel/Lucas on Netflix, nowyou have to pay for another service if you want it. The thing that has allowed Netflix to be competitive is producing more of its own content, quality programs to boot. Netflix is also the most expensive currently out there without live TV, commercials.

 

[discostu]

Netflix was only ever going to dominate as long as they could hold on to properties that they didn't own. Without nostalgia shows, they are going to take a hit, and now the streaming market is over-saturated, so we'll so who survives after a couple years. Part of the reason Disney has been buying all these IP's was for the streaming potential.

I think my big point is, we shouldn't be surprised that Disney is dominating and it's not because their quality is overwhelmingly the best on the market. It's not a pure monopoly and it never will be, but the industry like others is definitely consolidating, and I'm not a fan of that, but we'll have to see how everything plays out.

I think we agree on most points. I think consolidation was inevitable as well, and will only continue. What's going to work against Disney is that they don't do enough new content, and it will come back and haunt them. They may not always be in a position to buy existing properties, and their reliance on IP has limitations, as things move in cycles. I have more faith in the other studios to find the next big thing.

But, I will give Disney credit though, as they have been smart in how they've managed to maximize their IP. As good as this year was for them, I feel 2016 was the year that things really took off on the film side. They produced an original hit (Zootopia). Got a huge win from a Star Wars spinoff when no one really knew the potential. Jungle Book was a massive success, opening the door for a way to monetize their old catalogue. They had a big Marvel hit in Civil War, but more importantly, made a hit from an unknown character like Dr Strange. They swept the top 5 global hits without leaning too hard on their IP.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I think we agree on most points. I think consolidation was inevitable as well, and will only continue. What's going to work against Disney is that they don't do enough new content, and it will come back and haunt them. They may not always be in a position to buy existing properties, and their reliance on IP has limitations, as things move in cycles. I have more faith in the other studios to find the next big thing.

But, I will give Disney credit though, as they have been smart in how they've managed to maximize their IP. As good as this year was for them, I feel 2016 was the year that things really took off on the film side. They produced an original hit (Zootopia). Got a huge win from a Star Wars spinoff when no one really knew the potential. Jungle Book was a massive success, opening the door for a way to monetize their old catalogue. They had a big Marvel hit in Civil War, but more importantly, made a hit from an unknown character like Dr Strange. They swept the top 5 global hits without leaning too hard on their IP.

Yeah, they should get credit for making the MCU into what it was. That wasn't quite like Star Wars where they was already an existing die-hard fanbase to make the $1 billion mark very easy.

 

[Jussi]

It is a fact that box office numbers do not by themselves determine the quality of a film. Are you saying that Dredd was a bad movie because it did poorly at the box office?

You were the one who stated that the reason Disney has a stranglehold is because other studios aren't making movies up to their quality. Please explain how box office numbers are the arbiter of a quality movie.

Just because you liked it, doesn't mean everyone else did. I mean it's main criticism was that it more or less ripped of The Raid movie. Again, just because YOU didn't like a movie, that fact that it made over a billion means a lot of people did and vice versa. *fightsurgetomentionVenomwhichIthoughtsuckedbutmadeoverabillion* You cannot state it as a fact that movies wasn't good just because you didn't like it. You have dropped down from you perch and add the important IMO when making statements like that. I try to do that but occasionally leave it out because I'm evil.

 

[GKJ]

Disney and Marvel are keeping the movie theater industry alive by themselves. In 10 years they will be essentially extinct, unless Disney buys one of the major theater circuits or the whole industry movie-going experience is revolutionized.

 

[Jussi]

I think we agree on most points. I think consolidation was inevitable as well, and will only continue. What's going to work against Disney is that they don't do enough new content, and it will come back and haunt them. They may not always be in a position to buy existing properties, and their reliance on IP has limitations, as things move in cycles. I have more faith in the other studios to find the next big thing.

But, I will give Disney credit though, as they have been smart in how they've managed to maximize their IP. As good as this year was for them, I feel 2016 was the year that things really took off on the film side. They produced an original hit (Zootopia). Got a huge win from a Star Wars spinoff when no one really knew the potential. Jungle Book was a massive success, opening the door for a way to monetize their old catalogue. They had a big Marvel hit in Civil War, but more importantly, made a hit from an unknown character like Dr Strange. They swept the top 5 global hits without leaning too hard on their IP.

I think their main issue is finding "franchise runners". They need someone like Feige for many of their properties, especially Star Wars. MCU is fine with Feige running the show, not sure about the other ones.

 

[discostu]

I think their main issue is finding "franchise runners". They need someone like Feige for many of their properties, especially Star Wars. MCU is fine with Feige running the show, not sure about the other ones.

I think every studio can use a couple of guys like Feige. He's a rare breed, and the worst financial mistakes that have been made in the film industry this decade are studios trying to create a Marvel type situation without someone like that to steer it.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Huge year for Disney for sure. For those concerned...

I don’t think they’re going to continue this level of dominance for the foreseeable future. Their properties will still be making A LOT of money but I don’t think Marvel, for instance, is going to have anything close to Endgame for a very long time. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a noticeable drop off in BOR from future Marvel films as well as Star Wars after their “sometimes good, but rarely great” content that’s been released since TFA and culminating in RoS.

Disney certainly got their money’s worth from these films though.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

Just because you liked it, doesn't mean everyone else did. I mean it's main criticism was that it more or less ripped of The Raid movie. Again, just because YOU didn't like a movie, that fact that it made over a billion means a lot of people did and vice versa.

I am countering your idea that Disney makes so much money at the box office BECAUSE they are better films than those which don't. You haven't once demonstrated why that is a reasonable take.

 

[x Tame Impala]

I think Netflix has decent comp from Hulu and Prime already. What we are seeing now is fragmentation in streaming services where you used to get Marvel/Lucas on Netflix, nowyou have to pay for another service if you want it. The thing that has allowed Netflix to be competitive is producing more of its own content, quality programs to boot. Netflix is also the most expensive currently out there without live TV, commercials.

Netflix is also something like $11 BILLION in the hole though

 

[KingBran]

Yeah, this isn't something that we should celebrate.

Only way it stop's is if people quit giving them money and support new IP's instead of re-hashed crap.

 

[discostu]

Disney and Marvel are keeping the movie theater industry alive by themselves. In 10 years they will be essentially extinct, unless Disney buys one of the major theater circuits or the whole industry movie-going experience is revolutionized.

I really hope we don't see studios buying out full movie chains. I think it's a possibility, but I think that's where things will start getting ugly, and people will lose access to many films.

I still think things will go down the path of a MoviePass type situation. I know that company went belly up quickly, but there's likely a model that could work.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Netflix is also something like $11 BILLION in the hole though

Right. Same with a lot of other "tech" companies out there that are willing to undercut the market to gain market share only to jack up the prices later. At a certain point the capital won't be there as much and these companies need good cash flow.

 

[chicagoskycam]

Netflix is also something like $11 BILLION in the hole though

Well yeah, I read that too. It cost a ton of money to keep creating new content. They also posted something like 5 billion in revenue in Q3. The game-changer for Netflix at some point will be the introduction of ads. They are profitable so not exactly in the hole.

 

[chicagoskycam]

Right. Same with a lot of other "tech" companies out there that are willing to undercut the market to gain market share only to jack up the prices later. At a certain point the capital won't be there as much and these companies need good cash flow.

The difference being Netflix is and has been posted profits for a long time. They just keep taking on debt to produce new content. They may be leasing rights to some of their series at some point, I thought I saw House of Cards on a regular channel.

As far as Disney+ we have it for a year because the GF has Verizon. I don't see paying for it after that. Same goes for Apple+

 

[bleedblue1223]

The difference being Netflix is and has been posted profits for a long time. They just keep taking on debt to produce new content. They may be leasing rights to some of their series at some point, I thought I saw House of Cards on a regular channel.

As far as Disney+ we have it for a year because the GF has Verizon. I don't see paying for it after that. Same goes for Apple+

Everyone will have their preferences. Disney+ is targeted at people with kids and the fans of SW and Marvel.

 

[GKJ]

I really hope we don't see studios buying out full movie chains. I think it's a possibility, but I think that's where things will start getting ugly, and people will lose access to many films.

I still think things will go down the path of a MoviePass type situation. I know that company went belly up quickly, but there's likely a model that could work.

It's possible, but the appeal of staying home at some point will be much greater now that streaming services are doing more feature films and now with bigger star-power. That and the trend is moving back towards TV shows, binging or not.

 

[Jussi]

Netflix is also something like $11 BILLION in the hole though

12. And it doesn't matter. John Campea did a video on that last week.

 

[bleedblue1223]

12. And it doesn't matter. John Campea did a video on that last week.

As subscriber growth slow, the debt problems will get bigger. That's Netflix's challenge. What happens when they lose their classic binge shows.

 

[Jussi]

As subscriber growth slow, the debt problems will get bigger. That's Netflix's challenge. What happens when they lose their classic binge shows.

Depends what they have regionally on offer. You do know that there's difference on for example what's on the US Netflix compared to Finnish Netflix?

 

[bleedblue1223]

Depends what they have regionally on offer. You do know that there's difference on for example what's on the US Netflix compared to Finnish Netflix?

Yes, but vast majority of users aren't going to get a VPN to get around that, they will just switch services to their favorite content.