Prospect Info: 2019 40th overall: Vancouver selects Nils Höglander (LW, Rögle BK)

[Johnny Canucker]

Lets not rush this guy to the NHL. He is not a Quinn Hughes or an EP. We can’t have a shiny new toy make it to the NHL as a 19 year old every year. Let the guy take his time.

can he play defence? Cuz only 2 of our 10 defenders in the bubble can defend. Would be nice if we had a decent defender in the pipeline.

 

[HockeyWooot]

I know Hoglander’s stock has shot up since being drafted, but what is a realistic projection for him? What’s his ceiling?

If he’s not a can’t miss player to make the NHL, is it worth considering trading him while his value is high?

 

[ChilliBilly]

I know Hoglander’s stock has shot up since being drafted, but what is a realistic projection for him? What’s his ceiling?

If he’s not a can’t miss player to make the NHL, is it worth considering trading him while his value is high?

No! We already traded Madden for nothing, unless we go far in these playoffs. What would u want for him anyways. We are already going to have to let players walk because we are in cap he’ll. Why trade player on an ELC.

 

[UK Canuck]

I know Hoglander’s stock has shot up since being drafted, but what is a realistic projection for him? What’s his ceiling?

If he’s not a can’t miss player to make the NHL, is it worth considering trading him while his value is high?

Dont know if you subscribe to the Athletic or not, but Drancer did an article a few weeks ago looking at our top prospects outside the NHL and projecting their ceiling & floor's based on production post draft & Hoglander, his ceiling was Calle Jarnkrok & his floor was Sebastian Collberg, so if he turns out to be a Jarnkrok then that's a great pick in the 2nd round

 

[Hodgy]

Dont know if you subscribe to the Athletic or not, but Drancer did an article a few weeks ago looking at our top prospects outside the NHL and projecting their ceiling & floor's based on production post draft & Hoglander, his ceiling was Calle Jarnkrok & his floor was Sebastian Collberg, so if he turns out to be a Jarnkrok then that's a great pick in the 2nd round

But what is the probability of achieving his ceiling or floor? I would put Hoglander at like 50% chance of being an NHLer....

 

[ChilliBilly]

But what is the probability of achieving his ceiling or floor? I would put Hoglander at like 50% chance of being an NHLer....

That’s pretty pessimistic. It was considered to be one of the strongest players in last year‘s WJC. I would go more like 70% chance he’ll be on a second Or third line within two years.

 

[Hodgy]

That’s pretty pessimistic. It was considered to be one of the strongest players in last year‘s WJC. I would go more like 70% chance he’ll be on a second Or third line within two years.

Tons of players with similar or better WJC performances bust. 70% is too high imo.

 

[UK Canuck]

But what is the probability of achieving his ceiling or floor? I would put Hoglander at like 50% chance of being an NHLer....

not sure on the exact %, but Drance did point out below that he's very much boom or bust given his size

 

[VanJack]

Everybody harps on Hoglander's size....he's listed at 5'9" and 190. He's 'short' but not 'small'. And unlike a lot of other smaller perimeter players, Hoglander plays with a snarl, and is a handful down low where a lot of scoring chances are generated in the NHL.

Whether his WJC stats are relevant or not, he's still got the overall game to succeed as a 'scoring winger' at the NHL-level imo.

 

[Blue and Green]

not sure on the exact %, but Drance did point out below that he's very much boom or bust given his size
View attachment 356748

Drance is hyperbolic here; Hoglander is not a "rare prospect." Fagemo (three months younger) was drafted 10 spots behind Hoglander and produced four more goals and six more points than Hoglander while playing in only one more game. And neither of them are anywhere close to truly elite-level production for D+1 SHLers.

 

[Fatass]

not sure on the exact %, but Drance did point out below that he's very much boom or bust given his size
View attachment 356748

That would be the case if Hogs was soft to play against. But Hogs is hard to play against, and has a mean streak. He’s built like a block too. So Hogs could be a fourth line energy PK guy, and still be very valuable in that role.
Did this Drance guy ever play? Does he understand the importance of meanness in a player?

 

[BB06]

Drance is hyperbolic here; Hoglander is not a "rare prospect." Fagemo (three months younger) was drafted 10 spots behind Hoglander and produced four more goals and six more points than Hoglander while playing in only one more game. And neither of them are anywhere close to truly elite-level production for D+1 SHLers.

Fagemo is 8 months older than Hoglander and was 2018 draft eligible but was passed over. He’s a D+2....

 

[Blue and Green]

Fagemo is 8 months older than Hoglander and was 2018 draft eligible but was passed over ......

You are correct. I missed that on Fagemo. General point stands that Hoglander's scoring totals for his age were solid but nowhere close to exceptional.

 

[Blue and Green]

Drance mentioned Jarnkrok as a potential comparable if Hoglander makes it and that seems reasonable. Both were drafted in the 2nd round, too. Here's Jarnkrok's path to the NHL:

D+1: SHL
D+2: SHL
D+3: SHL, then 9 AHL games after SHL season ended
D+4: 63 AHL games, 12 NHL games
D+5: full-time NHLer

 

[Lonny Bohonos]

not sure on the exact %, but Drance did point out below that he's very much boom or bust given his size
View attachment 356748

Gotta be honest this sounds pretty dumb.

It sounds like throwing a bunch of words together in the hopes it sounds meaningful.

Right now it remains to be seen if hoglander can translate into the bigger, faster and meaner NHL. Much like any prospect in his draft place. Novel I know.

But his shortness really isnt a problem if he has all the other tools such as skating, puck handling, shooting and strength.

Its possible he blooms to become a top six type of guy and its possible he just doesnt have enough of those skills to more than a 4 th line pest.

 

[Lonny Bohonos]

Everybody harps on Hoglander's size....he's listed at 5'9" and 190. He's 'short' but not 'small'. And unlike a lot of other smaller perimeter players, Hoglander plays with a snarl, and is a handful down low where a lot of scoring chances are generated in the NHL.

Whether his WJC stats are relevant or not, he's still got the overall game to succeed as a 'scoring winger' at the NHL-level imo.

Its really ridiculous that this keeps being needed to be repeated. His height really isnt an issue.

Its whether his other skillsets translate into the NHL.

 

[Josepho]

I don't even know how anyone could consider Hoglander "small" in the first place.

The dude is absolutely built for his height and is heavier than several (taller) players that're currently on the team.

I really don't see him as boom/bust at all and could envision him as a chippy 3rd liner with a scoring touch.

 

[BB06]

Picked up 2 assists in Pre-season action.

 

[logan5]

I guess I'm resigned to the Canucks getting knocked out off the play-offs rather quickly, hence my renewed interest in our top prospects.

While I don't consider Hoglander a Podkolzin level prospect, he has NHL level strength and is competent defensively, which means he could come in sooner than later and replace some dead weight contract.

Another chippy mean player we could use in the play-offs, who also has good offensive up side.

 

[ChilliBilly]

I guess I'm resigned to the Canucks getting knocked out off the play-offs rather quickly, hence my renewed interest in our top prospects.

While I don't consider Hoglander a Podkolzin level prospect, he has NHL level strength and is competent defensively, which means he could come in sooner than later and replace some dead weight contract.

Another chippy mean player we could use in the play-offs, who also has good offensive up side.

Pretty optimistic about this player. However, the problem with deadweight contracts is there’s nothing to do with them. You can’t give them away and you can’t Bury them. Pretty much every free agent that Jim Benning has signed is overpaid and got longer-term then it’s worthwhile. Sadly we are in Cap Hell.

 

[VanJack]

When Podkolzin and Hoglander arrive in the NHL on entry-level contracts, it'll make a huge difference to the bottom line in terms of the salary cap. If they can contribute right away, that's how teams become competitive very quickly.

I just don't see a lot of upward mobility for the Canucks until they can jettison some of their dead-weight contracts for younger, cheaper players.

 

[ChilliBilly]

When Podkolzin and Hoglander arrive in the NHL on entry-level contracts, it'll make a huge difference to the bottom line in terms of the salary cap. If they can contribute right away, that's how teams become competitive very quickly.

I just don't see a lot of upward mobility for the Canucks until they can jettison some of their dead-weight contracts for younger, cheaper players.

Yep. And there is no way to get rid of those contracts unless we throw in a good player or a 1st round draft pick. By good player i mean boeser or better. We are screwed. Too bad, because i would love to see Hoglander playing next year, he will be a stud.

 

[NoRaise4Brackett]

Yep. And there is no way to get rid of those contracts unless we throw in a good player or a 1st round draft pick. By good player i mean boeser or better. We are screwed. Too bad, because i would love to see Hoglander playing next year, he will be a stud.

Whoa, simmer down a bit here. Eriksson would take a lot, but I honestly don't think it's even plausible to think it would cost Boeser to get rid of someone like Beagle/Sutter/Roussel/Baertschi. If we retain a bit, their caphits all become acceptable enough that we should be able to toss in a pick that could get it done - not Boeser.

 

[ChilliBilly]

Whoa, simmer down a bit here. Eriksson would take a lot, but I honestly don't think it's even plausible to think it would cost Boeser to get rid of someone like Beagle/Sutter/Roussel/Baertschi. If we retain a bit, their caphits all become acceptable enough that we should be able to toss in a pick that could get it done - not Boeser.

Well Baertschi went through wavers, and he and Sutter don't come off for 2 years. Beagle and Roussel 3 years. Eriksson is 3 years as well. We are going to be hard pressed to sign Markstrom and Virtanen this year, let a lone toffoli. Most of our dead weight contracts carry until 22 - 23. Where in the world are we going to get the money to sign our 2 superstars?

 

[Catamarca Livin]

Sutter and Sven come off at end of next year. Also Spooner buy out . Pearson and Edler contracts also end . Many others come off in two years. Yes it is a problem. Likely will cost team Toffoli and Tanev this year and more serviceable players next year, but it will not cost team Boeser, Hughes, Petterson, Markstrom, Miller, Horvat. Team will transition away from veteran role players and lose depth. The positive side is these players are now trending downwards, so losing them might not be so bad. Probably no cup but playoff competitive for 2 or 3 years before team can really go for it when Hughes and Petterson are 23, 24 and players like Podz, OJ, Lind, etc contributing.