2019-2020 St. Louis Blues - Defending the Cup - Part 3: The Prelude to Playoff Positioning

[execwrite1]

For those of us without TV access

Vote here and the Blues game Tuesday nite might be free on NHL.tv

 

[simon IC]

Watta f is this ram talk? Some swimming club?

Baseball I think.

 

[Renard]

The Blues scored a power play goal yesterday.

The assist went to Vince Dunn and Jordan Kyrou. The goal was scored by Robert Thomas. These three are part of the future core of the St. Louis Blues.

 

[Brockon]

Baseball I think.

National darts team. Get it right!

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

National darts team. Get it right!

Regular darts or lawn darts?

 

[MissouriMook]

I would just like to point out that even if we go NHL-.500 the rest of the way, we still finish with 100 points, which was good enough to win the Central last season.

A record of 18-18-6 over the last 42 games will get us to 100 points!

A record of 21-15-6 over the last 42 games will get us to 106 points.

A record of 23-13-6 over the last 42 games will get us to 110 points.

A record of 25-11-6 over the last 42 games will get us to 114 points, tying the most in a season in franchise history.

 

[Mike Liut]

Hope the Blues don’t peak too early or exert too much energy trying to win the presidents trophy. But on the other hand, you don’t want them getting too comfortable and lose their edge. I feel like those Hitch teams were wore out before the playoffs started.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

26-8-6 is our current record. If we keep up this pace, we get 52-16-12 plus 2 other games to get us to 82. That’s 110 points even if we lose that last 2.

I don’t think we have a better record in the second half than we did the first, but winning the Conference is likely, IMO. If Tarasenko was coming back sooner and we knew he’d be at 100% by the TDL, and we also knew we weren’t going to have more injuries in the second half than we had in the first, I’d say we are President Trophy favorites, but that’s all very unlikely.

I’d like to win the President’s Trophy just to show the league that we weren’t a fluke, but winning the Conference is good enough in that regard. In order to win the cup though, we will need everything to not go wrong (injuries, etc.), and we will need someone like Kyrou to impact our offense in the top-6.

 

[Blueston]

26-8-6 is our current record. If we keep up this pace, we get 52-16-12 plus 2 other games to get us to 82. That’s 110 points even if we lose that last 2.

I don’t think we have a better record in the second half than we did the first, but winning the Conference is likely, IMO. If Tarasenko was coming back sooner and we knew he’d be at 100% by the TDL, and we also knew we weren’t going to have more injuries in the second half than we had in the first, I’d say we are President Trophy favorites, but that’s all very unlikely.

I’d like to win the President’s Trophy just to show the league that we weren’t a fluke, but winning the Conference is good enough in that regard. In order to win the cup though, we will need everything to not go wrong (injuries, etc.), and we will need someone like Kyrou to impact our offense in the top-6.

Your math is off. We hit 116 points under scenario you described.

 

[Renard]

I watched a replay of the Sunday game vs. Winnipeg. De La Rose had some impressive moments in the game. He laid out a big hit along the boards. He was physical in a scrum in front of the Blues goal when we were killing a penalty, shoving Scheiffle aside and aggressively tackling Conner. I thought sure he would be penalized, but the officials let it go.

I have hopes for this guy.

 

[Mike Liut]

Can Army afford to lock up Petro, Schwartz and Parayko long term? By the time Schwartz is due, Steen, Bozak and Allen will be gone.

Petro - 9 mill x 8 yrs
Parayko 8x8
Schwartz 6.5 x 7

23.5 mill added annually

 

[Stealth JD]

Can Army afford to lock up Petro, Schwartz and Parayko long term? By the time Schwartz is due, Steen, Bozak and Allen will be gone.

Petro - 9 mill x 8 yrs
Parayko 8x8
Schwartz 6.5 x 7

23.5 mill added annually

Yes...but he then might not be able to afford to keep Dunn, Thomas, Blais, Binny or Perron for their next deals, unless they’re moving Faulk, ROR, Schenn or Tarasenko. Fortunately, Army has the payroll staggered masterfully, dead weight is coming off the books and the salary cap is expected to keep increasing...but the club is dangerously close to running out of cap space for everyone to stay and get raises. It is possible though, so long as the highest-paid players are earning their money and he’s slyly able to move out other guys that aren’t.

 

[execwrite1]

Hope the Blues don’t peak too early or exert too much energy trying to win the presidents trophy. But on the other hand, you don’t want them getting too comfortable and lose their edge. I feel like those Hitch teams were wore out before the playoffs started.

They are pushing all out right now so hopefully Berube gives the vets rest like he did with Binnington.

The schedule has a long break for the All-Star game and another week off. Guys like Bouwmeester, Steen, Bozak and others could use breathers throughout the year. (NOT load management).

 

[Mike Liut]

Yes...but he then might not be able to afford to keep Dunn, Thomas, Blais, Binny or Perron for their next deals, unless they’re moving Faulk, ROR, Schenn or Tarasenko. Fortunately, Army has the payroll staggered masterfully, dead weight is coming off the books and the salary cap is expected to keep increasing...but the club is dangerously close to running out of cap space for everyone to stay and get raises. It is possible though, so long as the highest-paid players are earning their money and he’s slyly able to move out other guys that aren’t.

thomas is a must. I’d hate to lose Parayko and/or Schwartz too. Even though I love Perron, I think Parayko and Schwartz are priorities. Sunny is reaching priority status too. Blais is becoming a really good player, but with Kostin and Kyrou coming, Blais is expendable if he gets too expensive. It’s going to be challenging for Army for sure. I would just love to build around Parayko and Petro for the next 8 years.

 

[Dbrownss]

Hope the Blues don’t peak too early or exert too much energy trying to win the presidents trophy. But on the other hand, you don’t want them getting too comfortable and lose their edge. I feel like those Hitch teams were wore out before the playoffs started.

I've never understood this idea. You have to play the games win or lose. I get it that sometimes you can physically drain yourself depending on play style. If the Blues were playing their heavy PO brand of hockey, it would make more sense. From what I see they arent forchecking and hitting nearly as much as they did in the playoffs. Right now they are semi ho hum during games. Rarely putting in a solid 60min effort.

If last years 2nd half surge didn't drain them come playoff time, I dont think this year's half throttle full season effort is going to do much. They seem to be getting lucky, but I've learned that good teams just create their own luck. They may not dominate every game, they may bend, but they don't break. Blues have just been really good about counter punching. They score some back breaking goals.

How many times did LA and Chi do that to the Blues? Blues would dominate for large stretches then Kane would just get a bounce and next thing you know, it's in the back of the net. That would just kill the Blues spirit.

 

[Blueston]

I've never understood this idea. You have to play the games win or lose. I get it that sometimes you can physically drain yourself depending on play style. If the Blues were playing their heavy PO brand of hockey, it would make more sense. From what I see they arent forchecking and hitting nearly as much as they did in the playoffs. Right now they are semi ho hum during games. Rarely putting in a solid 60min effort.

If last years 2nd half surge didn't drain them come playoff time, I dont think this year's half throttle full season effort is going to do much. They seem to be getting lucky, but I've learned that good teams just create their own luck. They may not dominate every game, they may bend, but they don't break. Blues have just been really good about counter punching. They score some back breaking goals.

How many times did LA and Chi do that to the Blues? Blues would dominate for large stretches then Kane would just get a bounce and next thing you know, it's in the back of the net. That would just kill the Blues spirit.

Blues have really perfected the Milton Berle game this season.

 

[Mike Liut]

I've never understood this idea. You have to play the games win or lose. I get it that sometimes you can physically drain yourself depending on play style. If the Blues were playing their heavy PO brand of hockey, it would make more sense. From what I see they arent forchecking and hitting nearly as much as they did in the playoffs. Right now they are semi ho hum during games. Rarely putting in a solid 60min effort.

If last years 2nd half surge didn't drain them come playoff time, I dont think this year's half throttle full season effort is going to do much. They seem to be getting lucky, but I've learned that good teams just create their own luck. They may not dominate every game, they may bend, but they don't break. Blues have just been really good about counter punching. They score some back breaking goals.

How many times did LA and Chi do that to the Blues? Blues would dominate for large stretches then Kane would just get a bounce and next thing you know, it's in the back of the net. That would just kill the Blues spirit.

I think you’re correct. The Blues definitely aren’t playing ‘playoff Blues’ style on a nightly basis. I just hope they have that switch to turn on when needed.

 

[BlueDream]

I think you’re correct. The Blues definitely aren’t playing ‘playoff Blues’ style on a nightly basis. I just hope they have that switch to turn on when needed.

They for sure do. We’ve seen them turn it up against teams like Colorado, Winnipeg and Tampa.

I think the Blues are perfecting a combo right now of playing really good hockey without tiring themselves out.

That’s why I was perfectly fine that they quit playing hockey for 2 periods against LA. It didn’t matter, they weren’t gonna lose. No reason to waste energy.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

The Blues posted a 2 minute New Years video to their Twitter feed that is so well done.

 

[tfriede2]

Can Army afford to lock up Petro, Schwartz and Parayko long term? By the time Schwartz is due, Steen, Bozak and Allen will be gone.

Petro - 9 mill x 8 yrs
Parayko 8x8
Schwartz 6.5 x 7

23.5 mill added annually

You don’t give 8x8 to defensive specialists with a powerful but inaccurate slap shot. Parayko should get 8 years, but nothing over 7 per.

 

[Bluesin7]

I watched a replay of the Sunday game vs. Winnipeg. De La Rose had some impressive moments in the game. He laid out a big hit along the boards. He was physical in a scrum in front of the Blues goal when we were killing a penalty, shoving Scheiffle aside and aggressively tackling Conner. I thought sure he would be penalized, but the officials let it go.

I have hopes for this guy.

I know he won't develop to be as good as Sunny, but he can definitely get up towards his level if he keeps improving like this

 

[Renard]

It looked to me that Kyrou lost the puck along the boards last night, leading to the game winning goal by Kessel.

I'm not down of Kyrou. He has great potential. But if the playoffs began tonight, would the Chief play him? He doesn't win enough puck battles or protect the puck well enough to be used, particularly in the third period of a close game, as he was last night.

 

[BlueDream]

It looked to me that Kyrou lost the puck along the boards last night, leading to the game winning goal by Kessel.

I'm not down of Kyrou. He has great potential. But if the playoffs began tonight, would the Chief play him? He doesn't win enough puck battles or protect the puck well enough to be used, particularly in the third period of a close game, as he was last night.

Yes we should. This could change if we acquire a winger at the deadline. But if we don’t, with Tarasenko being out, we would need Kyrou in there as an offensive threat. I think Chief could find ways to utilize him and still shelter him a bit. We played Fabbri and even Sanford at times when they weren’t providing much last year.

Blais-ROR-Perron
Schwartz-Schenn-Kyrou
Sundqvist-Thomas-Bozak
Mac-Barbashev-Steen

Would probably be the strongest playoff roster we could ice as things currently stand.

 

[rumrokh]

I know he won't develop to be as good as Sunny, but he can definitely get up towards his level if he keeps improving like this

Pretty much everyone thought the same thing about Sundqvist after his first season with the Blues. Dude passed through waivers and a lot of fans were ho-hum about the guy being an extra to start last season.

Now, I wouldn't count on the same thing happening with de la Rose; and while his physicality, skating, and defense are all damn good, I think Sundqvist showed better hands even during that rough first year. And de la Rose is a bit older than Sundqvist was at the time.
But strange things seem to happen with Swedes. Steen turned 30 and went from a 2nd/3rd line tweener to a 60+ point two-way force for a few years. Backlund, Lindholm, Olofsson...there have been lots of guys who became impact players in their mid-20's. Zetterberg was good right away, but didn't become a top-line player until he was what, 24 or 25? It could be complete coincidence, but if I'm a GM and I can pick up a Swede who is already a responsible player, has good tools, and is just entering their mid-20's, that seems like the right time to make that little bet. I think most fans overlook the value of developing a 4th liner into a 3rd liner; but, in a 4 line league, it's probably a bigger leap in value return than developing a 3rd liner into a 2nd liner.

 

[Mike Liut]

You don’t give 8x8 to defensive specialists with a powerful but inaccurate slap shot. Parayko should get 8 years, but nothing over 7 per.

In 3 years when he’s due to be re-signed, 8x8 will be a bargain. Parayko is a monster