I'm not sure what thread to put this in and this feels like a bit of a 'catch all' thread, so I figured it fit here.
Looking beyond this year, I think Army has a 4 year plan and isn't all that concerned about anything beyond that. 90 and 91 hit UFA after that 4 year window and in today's NHL, I'm not sure you can forecast much beyond 4 years. Other than avoiding horrendous team killing contracts I don't think you can predict what teams will and will not be good 5 years out.
I think that is part of the logic behind the Faulk trade and subsequent extension. Bokk probably wasn't going to be an impact NHLer for most (and possibly all) of that window, even if he hits his ceiling. He is still probably 2 years away from the NHL and he very well may be just an adequate NHL rookie in that 3rd year. I think his ceiling being mostly outside that 4 year window made him expendable. Similar thinking with the extension. I think that contract will hurt by the end (assuming he is still here), but probably not in the 4 year window. It isn't a large enough deal to be team killing, so I think Army was more than content tacking on term to bring the AAV down now.
I expect the same thinking for the Petro contract and have been vocal about that here. It very well may hurt in the last 2-3 years, but that is the cost of getting him at a manageable AAV in that 4 year window.
Maybe I'm bringing my own biases and projecting them onto Army, but the Faulk move at least supports my narrative. The window is the 4 years we have 90 and 91 making a combined $15 mil against the cap. That's the window I care about when talking trades/contracts and for at least the next 2 years, I don't think that will change. Avoid contracts that will become massive anchors and are structured in a way that they can't be moved, but I'm more than happy adding term into years 5+ if it means improving the team in years 1-4 and massaging the cap to maintain flexibility in that time.
Looking at that 4 year window, I'm incredibly optimistic. I think Allen will be fine as a backup this year and should be moveable with little to no salary retained this summer. I doubt we get much of any asset in return, but that's fine. I think a team on the rise with a young goalie and plenty of cap space will view him as the best available mentor that can provide decent-enough goaltending over 30-35 starts. There are enough creative ways to get out of Steen's deal that I think it will be in Steen's best interest to work with us to figure out an amicable solution. Get him his 1000th game this season and then figure out a way to give him a graceful 2020 and beyond. I don't see any scenario where Steen has a fun last season in 2020/21 if he stays here. The fans are going to turn on him if he's here and he very well might collect a paycheck as a healthy scratch or riding the bus in San Antonio. Leaving the Blues may not be his first choice, but it is probably the best choice out of the ones that will realistically be available to him. Between those two, I see the Blues clearing about $7.5-8 mil of their combined $10 mil cap hits without giving up much if anything. That's $23 mil in cap space + whatever cap increase for an estimated $25ish mil to fill 9 roster spots in 2020/21. That's enough to sign Petro+Schenn+Barby* to fair deals and then fill the remaining roster with ELCs (but would require a bridge with Dunn setting him up for a big raise the following season). It is also enough to sign Petro+Barby*, give Dunn a deal with term and then fill the rest of the roster with ELCs and maybe one other $2-3 mil contract. Or, you move Bozak as well and you can give Petro+Schenn+Barby*+Dunn fair market value with term and then fill out the rest of the roster.
Long story short, we have the flexibility to keep a damn good group together for that 4 year window. It may require eating some term that hurts in 5 years, but I'm more than okay with that. Let's go win another Cup or two and get this franchise into the conversation of "best teams in the Salary Cap era."
*As pointed out by
@AVictoryDive, Barby is signed for the next 2 years, so we don't have to fit a raise for him under the cap. That gives us even more wiggle room. Beautiful.
