Speculation: 2019-2020 Sharks Roster Discussion, part три (3)

[Jargon]

Any one not qualified who may be a fit?

 

[SharksAddict]

It’s been reported that they’re looking to trade Dillon.

Not quite how I’d characterize those reports. More like open to trading him, not necessarily actively looking to move him.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Not quite how I’d characterize those reports. More like open to trading him, not necessarily actively looking to move him.

This is a direct quote from the initial report:

The San Jose Sharks are trying to move defenceman Brenden Dillon and there are a few teams with interest.

 

[SharksAddict]

This is a direct quote from the initial report:

Which is from Garrioch who is about as unreliable as they come.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Which is from Garrioch who is about as unreliable as they come.

And then it was confirmed by Kurz who is plenty credible.



Kurz worded things a little differently, but there is a reason that he did that. He isn't supposed to say that a team is looking to trade a player because that hurts their leverage in trade negotiations. He still confirmed the initial report from Garrioch.

I disagree with that. Meier-Couture-Pavelski were doing fine in their matchups. You'd have to get to a very narrow scope to call what they did losing their matchups.

Controlling less than 40% of the goals scored in a 277 minute sample is losing matchups.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I wouldn't equate Ryan's non-tendering of a QO to DeMelo. It was known even before DeMelo's non-tendering that DeBoer loved him whereas he doesn't care for Ryan. I lean more in the direction of Ryan being gone without them even tendering a QO. It's not some huge loss or anything but I don't see much out there or internally to replace him. Middleton should not be their #7 and shouldn't be the first guy you go to when injuries hit. He's not an NHL'er.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Controlling less than 40% of the goals scored in a 277 minute sample is losing matchups.

Can you cite the numbers that you're using here? According to naturalstattrick, in 385 minutes even strength time this season with Timo Meier and Joe Pavelski, they had a 53.66 GF%.

 

[KirbyDots]

That makes more sense. Maybe same for Ryan, unless they just want to ditch him.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Can you cite the numbers that you're using here? According to naturalstattrick, in 385 minutes even strength time this season with Timo Meier and Joe Pavelski, they had a 53.66 GF%.

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

You are looking at just Meier and Pavelski together there. For whatever reason, they wrecked as a duo but sucked as a trio with Couture.

 

[Lebanezer]

The Sharks are annoyingly tight lipped about even the most innocuous information. Not a fan.

 

[Friday]

Man. I don't ever remember so many NHL players, though they are bottom tier, being not qualified. Have to think a lot of it is to do with the cap not going that much higher.

In the next few years there will be so few dollars for bottom 6ers. Teams will just have to play only ELC's on the 3rd and 4th lines to be able to afford their stars haha

 

[Jargon]

The Sharks are annoyingly tight lipped about even the most innocuous information. Not a fan.

I didn’t even know they were named the Sharks until their fourth year in the league.

Before then, they were just the San Jose Undisclosed Fish.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

You are looking at just Meier and Pavelski together there. For whatever reason, they wrecked as a duo but sucked as a trio with Couture.

And with an xGF% (a stat you love) above 50%, an HDCF% well over 50%, and well over 50% in the SCF%. As a trio, they were winning their matchups. Them not getting the breaks doesn't mean they weren't effective or winning their matchups.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

And with an xGF% (a stat you love) above 50%, an HDCF% well over 50%, and well over 50% in the SCF%. As a trio, they were winning their matchups. Them not getting the breaks doesn't mean they weren't effective or winning their matchups.

I don't love xGF% at all. I do find it very useful but I also believe it has its limitations. In this case, when a line plays 277 minutes together in the regular season and they don't control even 40% of the actual goal share, I believe that is quite damning of their performance. They did not pass the eye test either.

Also, the team as a whole was about 1% higher in terms of CF% and xGF% than that line was.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I don't love xGF% at all. I do find it very useful but I also believe it has its limitations. In this case, when a line plays 277 minutes together in the regular season and they don't control even 40% of the actual goal share, I believe that is quite damning of their performance. They did not pass the eye test either.

Also, the team as a whole was about 1% higher in terms of CF% and xGF% than that line was.

Except that judgment is essentially saying you don't care about the underlying metrics that point towards actual control of play, you only care about the end result. The goal share is unsustainable on the low side. Just look at their on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage. They were controlling play and getting a lot of bad luck. If it was kept and moved forward, they would've regressed to the mean in a positive manner over more time.

 

[boylerroom]

Please sign Meier today and make me stop worrying DW!!

 

[LadyStanley]

Jets make qualifying offers to six players

Jets QO 6, let 5 walk.

 

[Barrie22]

Marner was qaulified lol.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Except that judgment is essentially saying you don't care about the underlying metrics that point towards actual control of play, you only care about the end result. The goal share is unsustainable on the low side. Just look at their on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage. They were controlling play and getting a lot of bad luck. If it was kept and moved forward, they would've regressed to the mean in a positive manner over more time.

I do care about the underlying metrics. I just don't care about them as much as the metrics that determine the winner of the game and especially not when the underlying metrics don't match my eye test, and when this team was very good in terms of those underlying metrics all season but never matched them in goals.

A line with Couture and Pavelski on it in our system is always going to bleed goals against because neither of them have the foot speed to reliably back check and cover for pinching defensemen and having two players like that on one line spells doom for us. They're also going to do worse in terms of goals against than expected goals because the chances they allow will consist of plays like odd man rushes where no expected goal model that currently exists can accurately quantify the danger level of those shots. I do suspect that trio would've regressed to some kind of mean but I don't believe that mean is over 50% GF on this team with this goaltending and system. That PDO would regress but it's damn sure not coming back to 1.

They played another 64 minutes together in the playoffs and got out-scored 3-2. Being out-scored 20-13 in a sample size of 341 minutes and looking bad while doing it is enough for me to say that they lost their matchups.

 

[knu]

This is a crazy stressful/exciting offseason. Its been a looong time since ive seen one like this.

 

[Jargon]

This is a crazy stressful/exciting offseason. Its been a looong time since ive seen one like this.

I’m just glad we signed EK65. Starting the summer by signing a top 5 player in the league makes things way more enjoyable..

 

[Lebanezer]

Marner was qaulified lol.

He has to be if they want any offer sheet compensation.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I do care about the underlying metrics. I just don't care about them as much as the metrics that determine the winner of the game and especially not when the underlying metrics don't match my eye test, and when this team was very good in terms of those underlying metrics all season but never matched them in goals.

A line with Couture and Pavelski on it in our system is always going to bleed goals against because neither of them have the foot speed to reliably back check and cover for pinching defensemen and having two players like that on one line spells doom for us. They're also going to do worse in terms of goals against than expected goals because the chances they allow will consist of plays like odd man rushes where no expected goal model that currently exists can accurately quantify the danger level of those shots. I do suspect that trio would've regressed to some kind of mean but I don't believe that mean is over 50% GF on this team with this goaltending and system. That PDO would regress but it's damn sure not coming back to 1.

They played another 64 minutes together in the playoffs and got out-scored 3-2. Being out-scored 20-13 in a sample size of 341 minutes and looking bad while doing it is enough for me to say that they lost their matchups.

The first part is just admitting that my take is correct. The team being very good in those metrics doesn't take away that that line was good at them as well. Yeah, maybe they're bleeding goals because they can't cover for pinching d-men but that doesn't mean that the solution is splitting them up. More that the d-men shouldn't be pinching as much as has been discussed at length over the course of the season. The D was hyper aggressive on pinching and hanging out the goaltending. Having lineups that don't have the speed to cover that is only another reason not to play that way. Considering their other numbers were good outside of the goal share numbers, even playing the system like they did would've still yielded a regression to the mean but a tweak to the system to play more conservatively certainly would've increased their odds at reaching 1 by a significant amount. The playoffs is a small sample size that includes an injured Pavelski pretty much the entire time so it's hardly a fair assessment of them as a group.

 

[boylerroom]

I’m just glad we signed EK65. Starting the summer by signing a top 5 player in the league makes things way more enjoyable..

I still think back to middle of the season before we traded for Kane and people were saying the same old crap... Sharks window is closed! They're old, they have no good prospects... Meier who??

Then in less than one year, DW traded for Kane, Erik friggin Karlsson, and Timo Meier turns into a budding star.

 

[Lebanezer]

Suomela, Letunov, Meier, Labanc, Gambrell, DeSimone and Wood qualified.

Martin, Ryan, Chartier, Fitzgerald, Brodzinski, Donaghey and Schoenborn not qualified.