Prospect Info: 2019-2020 Senators Prospects Watch

[Samsquanch]

You're exact words were "Pinto being a PPG as a rookie in the NCAA is just as impressive as the other prospects, and probably a much bigger indicator of future success in reality." There's an inference being made that it saying "a much bigger indicator of future success" can be interpreted as believing it's more impressive given future success is the end goal.

But go ahead and hide behind not saying something word for word. It's a good look.

You're not getting flak for praising Pinto, your getting flak using it as an excuse for taking shots at those who supported other options that are arguably having as good or more impressive starts.

The difference between you and me; I'm not presenting anything as a fact, or hiding behind anything (like a lame article you claim is easily findable - but choose not to post for whatever reason).

Everything here is my own humble opinion. And yes, it's my opinion that a for a raw player like Pinto being ppg in the NCAA is a better indicator for his future success, whereas Kaliyev beating up on the CHL is nice, but the dude dropped for reasons that were completely unrelated to his ability to score in the CHL.

I mean how can you deny that obviously many scouts saw some red flags in his game - enough so that every single team in the 1st round chose not to pick him. That doesn't happen to someone with those stats unless there is something clearly wrong with the guy, either mentally or physically.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Does anyone familiar with Tychonick think that he could benefit from moving to the WHL? As far as I remember his rights belong to Calgary Hitmen. They seem like they have a lot of depth on D, so not sure if they would be the ideal place for him, but UND is pretty full right now too

I know its a tough team to progress through as a DMan but I'll be worried if he goes another yr with 25 games played and 5 points. Starting to think he needs to play against kids closer to his age and strength for a bit

 

[BondraTime]

The difference between you and me; I'm not presenting anything as a fact, or hiding behind anything (like a lame article you claim is easily findable - but choose not to post for whatever reason).

Everything here is my own humble opinion. And yes, it's my opinion that a for a raw player like Pinto being ppg in the NCAA is a better indicator for his future success, whereas Kaliyev beating up on the CHL is nice, but the dude dropped for reasons that were completely unrelated to his ability to score in the CHL.

I mean how can you deny that obviously many scouts saw some red flags in his game - enough so that every single team in the 1st round chose not to pick him. That doesn't happen to someone with those stats unless there is something clearly wrong with the guy, either mentally or physically.

Some teams were put off by his interviews, and his inability to speak very well (some form of a stutter and extreme social anxiety). As well, his game away from the puck and compete was questioned.

I didn't want Kaliyev regardless, but I think he likely should have gone in the 1st round.

The same could be said for Pinto, no teams took him in the 1st either. They both went back to back, and both should have the same type of questions surrounding them. One went much higher than where he was expected, and one went much lower. There are many cases of both ending good and bad for the teams making those selections.

I'm not upset at having Pinto instead of Kaliyev at all, though I would have preferred other guys before Pinto. He's off to a good start in his 19 year old season, so that's very nice. Hopefully he's able to crack the World Junior team seeing it's his last year of eligibility, though I think the odds may be stacked against him.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Glad to see Pinto and JBD doing so well.

These are two guys that the staff were pretty high on, so at the very least it bodes well that they look solid so far.

I’ve only seen highlights of JBD, I’m looking forward to seeing him and Lasse in Belleville.

The reports on Pinto sounds pretty darn good.

 

[Samsquanch]

Some teams were put off by his interviews, and his inability to speak very well (some form of a stutter and extreme social anxiety). As well, his game away from the puck and compete was questioned.

I didn't want Kaliyev regardless, but I think he likely should have gone in the 1st round.

The same could be said for Pinto, no teams took him in the 1st either. They both went back to back, and both should have the same type of questions surrounding them. One went much higher than where he was expected, and one went much lower. There are many cases of both ending good and bad for the teams making those selections.

I'm not upset at having Pinto instead of Kaliyev at all, though I would have preferred other guys before Pinto. He's off to a good start in his 19 year old season, so that's very nice. Hopefully he's able to crack the World Junior team seeing it's his last year of eligibility, though I think the odds may be stacked against him.

The thing with Pinto is that he only committed to hockey late in the game from what I remember reading, and was just as focused on other sports as much as he was hockey up until a few years ago.

He only had 1 year in the USHL before being drafted last year, and now has gone a ppg in college thus far. Hes as raw as they come in my opinion, and based on his athletic tool set, hes got a huge amount of untapped potential.

Very excited to see what kind of a ceiling that he has personally.

 

[starling]

Pinto's arc reminds me of Bowers. USHL ->late 1st reach->strong rookie start. 6-2 Centre, they even look alike.
Just looked him up. 0 points in 9 games of his AHL career so far.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Pinto's arc reminds me of Bowers. USHL ->late 1st reach->strong rookie start. 6-2 Centre, they even look alike.
Just looked him up. 0 points in 9 games of his AHL career so far.

I bet you think all white 6’2” college guys look alike....

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Pinto's arc reminds me of Bowers. USHL ->late 1st reach->strong rookie start. 6-2 Centre, they even look alike.
Just looked him up. 0 points in 9 games of his AHL career so far.

Lol

Ignoring the really bad basis of this comparison, Pinto was much better in the USHL than Bowers despite it being Bowers 2nd season and Pintos 1st. Pinto had 3x as many playoff points in the same amount of games, too. Pinto is also 15lbs heavier than Bowers despite being 2yrs younger and is far more of a physical player. Bowers is better as a two-way guy.

Also, Bowers is a fine prospect. But Pinto will be better.

Also.... funny that the comparison is being made to Bowers, who everyone lamented picking ahead of Tolvanen & Kostin… who are also both just ok AHLer at this point in their careers.

 

[BondraTime]

Lol

Ignoring the really bad basis of this comparison, Pinto was much better in the USHL than Bowers despite it being Bowers 2nd season and Pintos 1st. Pinto had 3x as many playoff points in the same amount of games, too. Pinto is also 15lbs heavier than Bowers despite being 2yrs younger and is far more of a physical player. Bowers is better as a two-way guy.

Also, Bowers is a fine prospect. But Pinto will be better.

Also.... funny that the comparison is being made to Bowers, who everyone lamented picking ahead of Tolvanen & Kostin… who are also both just ok AHLer at this point in their careers.

Pinto was 18 and Bowers was 17 at the same time. Only 1 year between them, Bowers is a 99' and Pinto a 00'.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

The difference between you and me; I'm not presenting anything as a fact, or hiding behind anything (like a lame article you claim is easily findable - but choose not to post for whatever reason).

Everything here is my own humble opinion. And yes, it's my opinion that a for a raw player like Pinto being ppg in the NCAA is a better indicator for his future success, whereas Kaliyev beating up on the CHL is nice, but the dude dropped for reasons that were completely unrelated to his ability to score in the CHL.

I mean how can you deny that obviously many scouts saw some red flags in his game - enough so that every single team in the 1st round chose not to pick him. That doesn't happen to someone with those stats unless there is something clearly wrong with the guy, either mentally or physically.

like someone else said... 31 teams also PASSED on Pinto

 

[Micklebot]

Also.... funny that the comparison is being made to Bowers, who everyone lamented picking ahead of Tolvanen & Kostin… who are also both just ok AHLer at this point in their careers.

Idk, expectations might be a bit high if we're critical of late 1st early 2nd 2017 picks not lighting it up in the AHL already (I know that's not what you're doing btw).

It is interesting though, fans often seem to prefer to pick a high ceiling skilled player that busts than they would a safer low ceiling player that has a successful albeit middling career. Hard to get excited about the next Zack Smith I guess.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Pinto was 18 and Bowers was 17 at the same time. Only 1 year between them, Bowers is a 99' and Pinto a 00'.

Valid critique for sure, I still stand by my point that its a weak basis for comparison (as though development is linear and exact)

Look, I don't think Pinto is gonna be a world beater but I'm also not grasping at straws as a means of explaining why he sucks. I also haven't changed my view of Bowers from the day he was drafted

Idk, expectations might be a bit high if we're critical of late 1st early 2nd 2017 picks not lighting it up in the AHL already (I know that's not what you're doing btw).

It is interesting though, fans often seem to prefer to pick a high ceiling skilled player that busts than they would a safer low ceiling player that has a successful albeit middling career. Hard to get excited about the next Zack Smith I guess.

Definitely - I think all the guys I listed have good shots at being solid NHLers and would be happy to have any of them in the organization.

Re: your 2nd point, I definitely agree as well but I think fans tend to relegate the Adam Henrique's of the world to Zack Smith tier while equating the David Perrons of the world with Patrick Kane. When in reality, those two guys are roughly equivalent as players (and yes, I pulled both names out of my ass; no, I don't think they are exactly equal). It's that combination of unbounded optimism and rigid pessimism that can get a little absurd

 

[Sweatred]

Idk, expectations might be a bit high if we're critical of late 1st early 2nd 2017 picks not lighting it up in the AHL already (I know that's not what you're doing btw).

It is interesting though, fans often seem to prefer to pick a high ceiling skilled player that busts than they would a safer low ceiling player that has a successful albeit middling career. Hard to get excited about the next Zack Smith I guess.

Only about 63% of 1RD picks play 200 games in the league. 1rd picks like Cowen and Lee both played 200 games and it would make a pick like Smith a good outcome from the 1RD. If you apply the 200 game measure to the Sens 1RD picks we have been fairly successful. We would all love to go back to the Havlat/Hossa draft years but those are not normal.

Odds not great for NHL draft picks – Guelph Storm

 

[Samsquanch]

like someone else said... 31 teams also PASSED on Pinto

Ok?

My point was that despite having the offensive season that Kaliyev did in his draft year, which normally would warrant a top 15 pick (at minimum), he was still passed over by 31 teams. Thats a massive red a flag whether anyone wants to admit it or not. Not many teams are comfortable with drafting using a high pick on a player that has some major concerns, like Kaliyev does.

Pinto was taken higher than he was ranked by central scouting, but thats because he was a really late riser with a very small body of work at that point. But go watch his interview again after getting drafted and notice when he gets asked if hes surprised that he got taken when he was (early second ahead of the rankings). Spoiler Alert - hes not.

This kid and his agent obviously knew that several teams were interested in him in the early 2nd, despite what the draft rankings said. And I dont blame the Sens for not trading down either if they felt that strongly about him. A late riser with raw tools like Pinto is the exact kind of prospect that lots of teams and their scouts will stay relatively quiet on in hopes that no one else has figured out what they potentially have in him. And that level of secrecy can have a trickle down effect on his overall draft ranking, especially if there are lots of teams using the same strategy.

Also.... funny that the comparison is being made to Bowers, who everyone lamented picking ahead of Tolvanen & Kostin… who are also both just ok AHLer at this point in their careers.

And how can we forget Tkachuk over Zadina either? There is a common trend here on this board with a certain group of posters who no matter what feel like the Sens cannot and will not ever do anything right - even drafting, despite having proven themselves time and time again to be one of (if not the very best) teams in the leagues at it.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Valid critique for sure, I still stand by my point that its a weak basis for comparison (as though development is linear and exact)

Look, I don't think Pinto is gonna be a world beater but I'm also not grasping at straws as a means of explaining why he sucks. I also haven't changed my view of Bowers from the day he was drafted



Definitely - I think all the guys I listed have good shots at being solid NHLers and would be happy to have any of them in the organization.

Re: your 2nd point, I definitely agree as well but I think fans tend to relegate the Adam Henrique's of the world to Zack Smith tier while equating the David Perrons of the world with Patrick Kane. When in reality, those two guys are roughly equivalent as players (and yes, I pulled both names out of my ass; no, I don't think they are exactly equal). It's that combination of unbounded optimism and rigid pessimism that can get a little absurd

I don't think anyone is trying to say Pinto sucks. The argument has always been that he was a reach and we left some great talent on board, which is becoming a trend here.

Pinto is basically another Lazar/Norris/White/Bowers. Will probably be a decent 3rd line guy. We could have had a chance at a real talent, which is something the team is absolutely starved for. Instead we went with more of what we already have and isn't working.

 

[Micklebot]

And how can we forget Tkachuk over Zadina either? There is a common trend here on this board with a certain group of posters who no matter what feel like the Sens cannot and will not ever do anything right - even drafting, which they've proven themselves time and time again to be one of (if not the very best) teams in the leagues at.

Tkachuk was seen as one of the most NHL ready players in the draft so it's not really surprising he's ahead of Zadina in terms of NHL impact a year and a half after getting drafted. Nobody reasonable person would have expected Zadina to make an impact yet, so acting like it's proven we made the right choice already seems absurd. It took Schiefele 4+ years before he was an impact player, while Larson was making an impact right away like Tkachuk. Who would you want today (though I suppose Larsson allowed NJD to rob Edm of Hall but that's another story)?

Tkachuk may very well turn out better than Zadina but there's lots of runway left before we'll know.

 

[Samsquanch]

Tkachuk was seen as one of the most NHL ready players in the draft so it's not really surprising he's ahead of Zadina in terms of NHL impact a year and a half after getting drafted. Nobody reasonable person would have expected Zadina to make an impact yet, so acting like it's proven we made the right choice already seems absurd. It took Schiefele 4+ years before he was an impact player, while Larson was making an impact right away like Tkachuk. Who would you want today (though I suppose Larsson allowed NJD to rob Edm of Hall but that's another story)?

Tkachuk may very well turn out better than Zadina but there's lots of runway left before we'll know.

We did make the right choice with Tkachuk over Zadina - and its absolutely laughable (but not surprising) that you would suggest otherwise. Seriously, give your head a shake man. Its okay to admit that you were wrong sometimes - no one will think less of you for it.

Someday I hope you guys can realize that points are not the only metric to use in hockey (even though Brady will likely outscore Zadina anyways).

 

[Micklebot]

We did make the right choice with Tkachuk over Zadina - and its absolutely laughable (but not surprising) that you would suggest otherwise. Seriously, give your head a shake man. Its okay to admit that you were wrong sometimes - no one will think less of you for it.

Someday I hope you guys can realize that points are not the only metric to use in hockey (even though Brady will likely outscore Zadina anyways).

I was actually one of the few posters to be happy with Tkachuk, and was supportive of him as a target from the get go. I did a lot of defending Tkachuk as an option in the threads leading up to the draft. I just also saw and still see value in Zadina. It's funny that you jump to the conclusion that I only value points, though I guess not surprising.

Someday, maybe you'll realize that winners and losers in the draft takes more than 16 months to determine. People won't think less of you for it...

 

[Samsquanch]

I was actually one of the few posters to be happy with Tkachuk, and was supportive of him as a target from the get go. I did a lot of defending Tkachuk as an option in the threads leading up to the draft. I just also saw and still see value in Zadina. It's funny that you jump to the conclusion that I only value points, though I guess not surprising.

Someday, maybe you'll realize that winners and losers in the draft takes more than 16 months to determine. People won't think less of you for it...

Its great that you defended Tkachuk at the time we picked him, good for you for bucking the HFSens trend for once. But at this point in time with all things considered, if you still dont believe that the Senators made the right choice by taking Brady Tkachuk over Zadina, then there is no help for you imo.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Lol

Ignoring the really bad basis of this comparison, Pinto was much better in the USHL than Bowers despite it being Bowers 2nd season and Pintos 1st. Pinto had 3x as many playoff points in the same amount of games, too. Pinto is also 15lbs heavier than Bowers despite being 2yrs younger and is far more of a physical player. Bowers is better as a two-way guy.

Also, Bowers is a fine prospect. But Pinto will be better.

Also.... funny that the comparison is being made to Bowers, who everyone lamented picking ahead of Tolvanen & Kostin… who are also both just ok AHLer at this point in their careers.

Woah woah woah. I get that you said "at this point in their careers" but let's not lump Tolvanen in with Bowers or Kostin or Pinto. Granted, he's had trouble with the pro game in North America so far, but just the season before last he had the best season ever by a U19 player in the ten year history of the KHL. High bust potential right now if he doesnt figure it out soon, but the upside is enormous.

 

[Micklebot]

Its great that you defended Tkachuk at the time we picked him, good for you for bucking the HFSens trend for once. But at this point in time with all things considered, if you still dont believe that the Senators made the right choice by taking Brady Tkachuk over Zadina, then there is no help for you imo.

What I'm saying is that the right choice can't really be determined so soon after a player is drafted. Development isn't linear and different players develop at different paces. What I didn't say is that we made the wrong decision or the right one. It's odd that any of this needs to be said, but here we are.

You see to want to have it both ways. People are absurd for ruling out Pinto so quickly (to a point I agree with this, but most were just high, possibly too high, on others guys not outright ruling out Pinto) but now you've declared ultimate victory on Tkachuk over Zadina because 16 months have passed and Zadina isn't tearing up the NHL.

 

[Samsquanch]

What I'm saying is that the right choice can't really be determined so soon after a player is drafted. Development isn't linear and different players develop at different paces. What I didn't say is that we made the wrong decision or the right one. It's odd that any of this needs to be said, but here we are.

You see to want to have it both ways. People are absurd for ruling out Pinto so quickly (to a point I agree with this, but most were just high, possibly too high, on others guys not outright ruling out Pinto) but now you've declared ultimate victory on Tkachuk over Zadina because 16 months have passed and Zadina isn't tearing up the NHL.

Wow, no sorry, I live in the real world where actual decisions need to be made.

Case in point - A real world decision had to be made at the time we were picking #4 by the Senators. A tough choice at that.

Based on what we know today, we made what looks to be the right decision. Simple is that

You would literally have to be the worst gambler in the world to bet on Zadina being the better player at this point in time, knowing what we know. Truth. He could still end up getting there, but the odds are much more heavily stacked against him now then they were at the time of the draft.

And therefore, the Senators look like they have made the right decision. Now factor in all of the good things off the ice that Tkachuk has done for the Sens (who were in the midst of their darkest hour), and his leadership qualities (being pegged as the future captain), and its a no brainer obvious answer yes that the Sens made the right pick for themselves.

 

[Micklebot]

Wow, no sorry, I live in the real world where actual decisions need to be made.

Case in point - A real world decision had to be made at the time we were picking #4 by the Senators. A tough choice at that.

Based on what we know today, we made what looks to be the right decision. Simple is that

You would literally have to be the worst gambler in the world to bet on Zadina being the better player at this point in time, knowing what we know. Truth.

Yes, placing a bet today, the odds are on Tkachuk, he's passed certain thresholds, barriers if you will, and as of right now his floor is significantly higher than Zadina's, who could still bust and never become a player at the NHL level. That's not the same thing as declaring the pick the right choice though. As I mentioned earlier, Larson would have easily looked like the smart choice one year or two after being drafted in 2011 compared to Schiefele, but certainly not today. Tyler Myers seemed like a better pick than Karlsson at first. These things take time, it's a marathon not a sprint.

 

[Samsquanch]

Yes, placing a bet today, the odds are on Tkachuk, he's passed certain thresholds, barriers if you will, and as of right now his floor is significantly higher than Zadina's, who could still bust and never become a player at the NHL level. That's not the same thing as declaring the pick the right choice though. As I mentioned earlier, Larson would have easily looked like the smart choice one year or two after being drafted in 2011 compared to Schiefele, but certainly not today. Tyler Myers seemed like a better pick than Karlsson at first. These things take time, it's a marathon not a sprint.

I mean its not like Im going to go and get my opinion notarized by a lawyer and then officially declare it - its just my opinion based on what we know today. Its like your saying that we have to wait for this special opportunity way into the future and get up on a podium before we can officially declare the team was "right", and I just dont follow you on that kind of logic...

The Sens picking Tkachuk over Zadina is very relevant to the discussion right now (Pinto vs Kaliyev), and its more than fair to say that the same scouting team that made the Pinto pick looks to have made the correct choice on Tkachuk (ie the pick was made under VERY similar circumstances - just one round later).

That may still ruffle your feathers that Im declaring that the Sens made the right pick - but as mentioned before Im really not just looking at their respective abilities to put the puck in the net. Tkachuk checks all of the boxes from a "face of the franchise" standpoint, and for a team that just lost all of its faces, not picking Tkachuk and gambling on Zadina (based on what we know now) would be an incredibly stupid and puzzling move.

 

[Micklebot]

I mean its not like Im going to go and get my opinion notarized by a lawyer and then officially declare it - its just my opinion based on what we know today. Its like your saying that we have to wait for this special opportunity way into the future and get up on a podium before we can officially declare the team was "right", and I just dont follow you on that kind of logic...

The Sens picking Tkachuk over Zadina is very relevant to the discussion right now (Pinto vs Kaliyev), and its more than fair to say that the same scouting team that made the Pinto pick looks to have made the correct choice on Tkachuk (ie the pick was made under VERY similar circumstances - just one round later).

That may still ruffle your feathers that Im declaring that the Sens made the right pick - but as mentioned before Im really not just looking at their respective abilities to put the puck in the net. Tkachuk checks all of the boxes from a "face of the franchise" standpoint, and for a team that just lost all of its faces, not picking Tkachuk and gambling on Zadina (based on what we know now) would be an incredibly stupid and puzzling move.

The problem is you're using Tkachuk over Zadina as evidence that Pinto over Kaliyev is the right choice. It's a fallacious argument, I'm calling it out as such.

For one, Tkachuk being a better pick is yet to be determined regardless of your opinion on the matter.

Secondly, all you're doing is appealing to authority, the same authority that chose Lazar over Mantha and Ceci over Hertl or Teravainen, Cowen over Ellis, Lee over Kopitar, ect. Just because we chose Tkachuk over Zadina (which may or may not end up the correct choice) doesn't really mean we made the right choice here. In fact, our track record in the 1st round really hasn't been all that impressive in the last 10 years. It's not bad per say, but nothing to write home about.

It also shows a remarkable lack of self awareness to think it's your opinions that ruffles feathers and not the way you present them.