2019-20 Roster Thread VII

[Breeze 44]

If he trades 11th or Ghost were ****ed.

None of these should be moved.

Nothing wrong with moving the 11OA , Ghost should not be moved.

 

[deadhead]

Would you consider him a 1st line forward?

Of course not, JVR is a bit of a one trick pony, though he can be a solid player in the right situation.
He was a horrid defender when he got to Toronto (probably one of the things that got him shipped out), but improved substantially there, and produced both on the 2nd and 3rd lines as they added depth.
However, he is a top goal scorer, and that's a rare knack.

I think the key for JVR was being paired with Bozak, and I think he played best last year with Couts and Giroux.
So he might play on the 1st line next year, but that doesn't make him a 1st line talent.
I don't like him with Patrick or Frost right now. Maybe as Patrick gets more experience.

 

[GKJ]

The 2nd PP unit only gets like 30-40 seconds of zone time if they're lucky. Unless you're throwing out a completely different setup when they're out, it's not worth going that far in-depth with it. If someone gets hot from it, they're just going to get moved up. Ghost is a guy, especially on the PP, who has to work in a rhythm and I just don't think it works the same way if he's 2nd PP, and if they're bringing in a top dog like Karlsson I'm not so sure that worked either, Karlsson having to play second fiddle to Burns in San Jose seemed to be something nobody was happy with even though they had a top 5 unit.


On another note, I don't see why an 11th overall pick 'should not be moved.' We're picking 11th. Not 2nd.

 

[renberg]

Supposedly the Flames are looking to move TJ Brodie? Any interest in him?

 

[The Madrigal]

On another note, I don't see why an 11th overall pick 'should not be moved.' We're picking 11th. Not 2nd.

Yep. I would prefer to keep the pick but I would much rather trade it than Farabee or Frost for example. They are both closer to making the NHL than the 11th overall pick would be and both have looked very good and improved their stock tremendously since being drafted. Neither one is a guarantee but right now you'd have to feel about their chances of being impact players in the NHL some day over a draft pick which is a complete unknown.

I did some research on the 11th overall picks over the last 20 years and posted it about a month ago and the chances of getting a great player from 11 are about 15-20% and the chances of getting a total bust versus just a quality NHL player are about 50/50.

 

[The Madrigal]

Supposedly the Flames are looking to move TJ Brodie? Any interest in him?

No

 

[Prongo]

Supposedly the Flames are looking to move TJ Brodie? Any interest in him?

Sure but flames fans think Patrick should be in the return...

 

[GKJ]

Yep. I would prefer to keep the pick but I would much rather trade it than Farabee or Frost for example. They are both closer to making the NHL than the 11th overall pick would be and both have looked very good and improved their stock tremendously since being drafted. Neither one is a guarantee but right now you'd have to feel about their chances of being impact players in the NHL some day over a draft pick which is a complete unknown.

I did some research on the 11th overall picks over the last 20 years and posted it about a month ago and the chances of getting a great player from 11 are about 15-20% and the chances of getting a total bust versus just a quality NHL player are about 50/50.

You don't worry about the percentages in that situation, sort of like how 'only X% of 2nd round picks make it.' Just because other teams are bad at drafting, it shouldn't change how you approach your draft strategy.

 

[The Madrigal]

You don't worry about the percentages in that situation, sort of like how 'only X% of 2nd round picks make it.' Just because other teams are bad at drafting, it shouldn't change how you approach your draft strategy.

A bird in the hand though still exists as a factor if we are discussing what asset you would prefer to keep between 11, Farabee, and Frost. The two prospects are still relative unknowns but they have both developed extremely well and risen their stock since being drafted.

Also, I see your point and don't dismiss it but as you said it's the 11th pick not 2nd and the chances of getting a stud young player are dramatically lower at 11.

 

[rinaldo]

If he trades 11th or Ghost were ****ed.

None of these should be moved.

why on earth would they be ****ed as you say by moving either of those?

 

[TCTC]

You don't worry about the percentages in that situation, sort of like how 'only X% of 2nd round picks make it.' Just because other teams are bad at drafting, it shouldn't change how you approach your draft strategy.

On the flip side, you can't just assume the player you pick is going to be good. For every Farabee there's always the chance you pick a guy like O'Brien.
It's asset management and it's also risk management. If the player we pick is a total bust, we're going to ask ourselves what could've been if we used the pick in a trade for Trouba, for example. Especially since we're not in the rebuild phase anymore.

 

[deadhead]

On another note, I don't see why an 11th overall pick 'should not be moved.' We're picking 11th. Not 2nd.

All assets are moveable, but people underestimate the value of #11, probably because they can't put a face on the pick right now. But it is a valuable, cost controlled, ED exempt asset - and worth, far, far more than the 20th+ pick usually traded for players (see Schenn, ROR, etc).

Put it this way, what would it cost to trade up from say 21st to 11th in the draft, that's the value of the assets you're trading away when you trade #11.

 

[flyersfan018]

Nothing wrong with moving the 11OA , Ghost should not be moved.

Exactly. I don’t see this as a strong draft and Flyers need roster players. They’ve been building their prospect pool for years.

 

[deadhead]

On the flip side, you can't just assume the player you pick is going to be good. For every Farabee there's always the chance you pick a guy like O'Brien.
It's asset management and it's also risk management. If the player we pick is a total bust, we're going to ask ourselves what could've been if we used the pick in a trade for Trouba, for example. Especially since we're not in the rebuild phase anymore.

Nah, we'll just take the money we'd overpay Trouba and either give it to lock up all our RFAs for 8 years or go into free agency and overpay another player as good as Trouba.

 

[rinaldo]

Nothing wrong with moving the 11OA , Ghost should not be moved.

how is trading the 11th pick, a player who may or may not ever play in the nhl,
for an established player who can help now and in the future a bad thing?
Trading it for a older vet, yes that silly. For youngish player not at all.

 

[Danko]

This may sound crazy, but how about we keep Ghost and Patrick.

 

[Striiker]

We're not ****ed if we trade the pick. Settle down lol

If he thinks we need anything so desperately that he needs to move the 11th, then yeah, we're f***ed because he can't evaluate this roster.

Nobody is giving us something worth that pick, so if it gets moved it'd be for a shortsighted overpayment.

 

[rinaldo]

If he thinks we need anything so desperately that he needs to move the 11th, then yeah, we're ****ed because he can't evaluate this roster.

Nobody is giving us something worth that pick, so if it gets moved it'd be for a shortsighted overpayment.

who determines the worth of the pick?

 

[GKJ]

A bird in the hand though still exists as a factor if we are discussing what asset you would prefer to keep between 11, Farabee, and Frost. The two prospects are still relative unknowns but they have both developed extremely well and risen their stock since being drafted.

Also, I see your point and don't dismiss it but as you said it's the 11th pick not 2nd and the chances of getting a stud young player are dramatically lower at 11.

Right, it could go either way at 11, and at 2 you've got your pick of the litter and should be drafting a star player who should step right into the league. When the Flyers took Sam Morin at 11 and we know now he was something like 4th or 5th on their board (which should've been reconsidered at any rate). If the same situation happens this time, they shouldn't make the trade unless it's a knockout offer - in all likelihood they're looking at someone who they think can help them in a year, imo.

But I think a record of the scouting staff and decision making where we're looking. The scouts here have been good, in all likelihood there will be changes after the draft because that's just the business. Fletcher's best two drafts with the Wild were his first two, probably before the scouting staff turned over - after his second draft there, he's gotten nothing after round 2 (very familiar around these parts), so that's something I'm looking at when he's trying to make moves this summer. He's hasn't be careless with picks but not always the players that came after that really gives you the versatility and leverage in trades.

I think the prospects hold more trade value to him because the reality is that with so many prospects, even as good as they are, they can't all make it. There's only 20 spots on the bench. We're already talking about two of them opting for free agency, and one Hextall already moved for the same reason (turned a 6th into a 3rd so that was good). The option is also still there to get aggressive in moving up in the draft if he's got a specific player targeted.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Nobody is giving us something worth that pick, so if it gets moved it'd be for a shortsighted overpayment.

Don't underestimate desperation. If it works against Fletcher (and it does), it can work against other teams as well.

 

[Striiker]

Don't underestimate desperation. If it works against Fletcher (and it does), it can work against other teams as well.

I have a hard time believing another GM will be more desperate than our current shortsighted management group, who can't stop loudly broadcasting to the world that they're ready to be taken advantage of.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I have a hard time believing another GM will be more desperate than our current shortsighted management group, who can't stop loudly broadcasting to the world that they're ready to be taken advantage of.

Ken Holland got a new job in a pressure cooker. Jim Benning exists. McPhee makes trades because he wakes up on the left side of the bed. Fenton is throwing darts. Jim Nill is bipolar. Pick any name you want in Ottawa for any Ottawa reason. Bob Murray could do anything at any time. Treliving's always open for business. Doug Wilson is in a key offseason. Poile seemingly needs to clear salary. Chayka's super hit and miss. Bergevin is bound to turn back into a pumpkin sooner or later.

If you can't fathom it, I don't think you're being fair. I don't think it's likely. I'm just not ready to take it to that degree.

 

[GKJ]

All assets are moveable, but people underestimate the value of #11, probably because they can't put a face on the pick right now. But it is a valuable, cost controlled, ED exempt asset - and worth, far, far more than the 20th+ pick usually traded for players (see Schenn, ROR, etc).

Put it this way, what would it cost to trade up from say 21st to 11th in the draft, that's the value of the assets you're trading away when you trade #11.

The best example I can find recently was 2012 when Buffalo traded a 2nd (#42) to move up from 21 to 14. That was the same draft Holmgren was desperately trying to move in to take Teravainen but couldn't find a trade partner.

 

[rinaldo]

I have a hard time believing another GM will be more desperate than our current shortsighted management group, who can't stop loudly broadcasting to the world that they're ready to be taken advantage of.

what has this management done so far to get the shortsighted moniker?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

When Dave Scott publicly mentioned Q’s name during a presser it shows you how clueless this guy is from a hockey ops standpoint. Imagine this jackass behind closed doors.