Speculation: 2019-20 Roster, Cap, Trade Discussion (MOD WARNING POST #542)

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ducks8

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Mar 27, 2009
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Zegras is on the fourth fricken line bro. Please tell me how that is elite???? Please explain. That’s like pulling a name out of a hat to get that spot.

And HFBoards wants to build around that? Wow..... and USA WJC isn’t even that deep. Lost to Canada 6-4 the other day. Dude is not a Getzlaf up and coming...... but this draft pick??? Will be if Murray is smart.

Edit: Also got they ass whooped by Finland to get knocked out today. Zegras a top 6 regular forward no questions about it. Nothing special about this kid. I would even call em a tweener from 6 to 9 on the depth chart.
Hahahahaha this has got to be the worst take on this board I have ever seen.

While being on the 4th line, Zegras led the team in points with 9. I guess we should all ignore what the pros say about Zegras potentially being one of the best picks to come out of the draft, because 405 said so
 

Ducks DVM

sowcufucakky
Jun 6, 2010
52,170
29,433
Long Beach, CA
if you really believe that then you should trade your first round pick every year for a 29 year old player no matter if you are a contender or not. I just dont think you are considering all of the factors and misinterpreting the 80/20 thing. With 4 picks you would probably end up with 2 guys that dont make the nhl, one third liner and one guy way better than Silf. You would also have 4 guys on elc. When Silf is 33, his contract will probably have negative value whereas that pick will have clear positive value with a decent chance to be a very good nhler.
Plenty of teams did exactly that before the salary cap.

I’m not misinterpreting anything. You’d have traded 4 actual NHL players for a chance at getting a player who most likely might be marginally better than Silfverberg (late picks on average are significantly worse than Silfverberg, not as good as he is), a 3rd/4th lone guy, and a couple busts. That 20% chance was to get a top 6 player.
Turning Silfverberg, Henrique, Rakell, and Fowler (I don’t know who else gets you a 1st on our roster) into Silfverberg, Ritchie, Etem, and some other bust doesn’t sound nearly as appealing, does it? Best case reasonable scenario is probably Rakell instead of Silfverberg. Which is still a horrible downgrade on the roster.
 

bracer028

Registered User
Apr 18, 2018
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If that 20% number is accurate, you should be stating there is an 80% chance the draft pick is worse than Silf and a 20% chance he is better. That is how the math works. You also have to factor in length of career remaining and the value of an elc. Additionally, trading Silf would hurt us this year and improve our draft position this upcoming draft. Say it moved us 2 spots better in the draft on avg. All real factors.

Stockpiling picks is a absolutely what the team should doing at this stage.
These guys just like to hold on to players that will be valueless when the time comes.

Theres absolutely no reason to hold onto silf and henrique at their current age
 

dracom

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Dec 22, 2015
13,270
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These guys just like to hold on to players that will be valueless when the time comes.

Theres absolutely no reason to hold onto silf and henrique at their current age
So you want to trade players like silf, rico, gibson, Lindholm, manson. You also want to trade all our current rookies. Do you realize you still need to ice a team? You dont win by collecting the most draft picks, and you certainly dont win by forcing those draft picks into the lineup because you’ve traded away all the older players for picks.
 

Ducks DVM

sowcufucakky
Jun 6, 2010
52,170
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Long Beach, CA
When was the last time 2nd line roster players with long contract term and 5M+ cap hits brought back 1sts and prospects rather than similar players (hockey trades) or decent prospects and worse roster players with cap hits?

People seem to be expecting rental returns for non-rentals.
 

bracer028

Registered User
Apr 18, 2018
985
325
So you want to trade players like silf, rico, gibson, Lindholm, manson. You also want to trade all our current rookies. Do you realize you still need to ice a team? You dont win by collecting the most draft picks, and you certainly dont win by forcing those draft picks into the lineup because you’ve traded away all the older players for picks.
I never said to trade our young. I said we need to dump silf, henrique, get some top picks for rakell and gibson

The next five years is bleak. This team wont contend and wont make the play offs. So whats the point of holding on to players that are 27 to 30.

If im able to get 5 top 5 picks in the next five years

Get another 5 picks from 15 to 25, i would have 10 picks total. I just need 1 draisitl and 1 connor and that would be our building block.
 

KyleJRM

Registered User
Jun 6, 2007
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Don’t forget that when you trade a player like Silfverberg, you clear his cap space. And if the draft pick hits, they’re on an ELC.

That’s an incredibly important part of the equation.
 

Sojourn

Registered User
Nov 1, 2006
50,523
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So was Gibson.

Also apples and oranges. Troy Terry’s heroics were primarily shootout related. It was like Toews, when he did it for Canada. Massively clutch, but a very specific circumstance. A good tournament capped it for him.

Gibson was the MVP of the entire tournament, and the best goaltender.

What Zegras did is more in line with Gibson than Terry. Zegras was the best player for the US, and was putting up a similar MVP kind of performance. He was leading the tournament in points when the US fell. Unfortunately, outside of Zegras they weren’t getting much, and the coach is being universally condemned for his management of the team. That, on top of some pretty damn good talents underperforming(and I suspect coaching was a big part of this too).

For Zegras to have been leading the tournament, while not playing top minutes for his team was a testament to how dangerous he was on the ice. What happens in the NHL is another matter entirely, but this idea that he was nothing more than a 4th liner is just about the most ridiculous statement someone could make to try to dismiss him as a player.
 

Ducks in a row

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Zegras is on the fourth fricken line bro. Please tell me how that is elite???? Please explain. That’s like pulling a name out of a hat to get that spot.

And HFBoards wants to build around that? Wow..... and USA WJC isn’t even that deep. Lost to Canada 6-4 the other day. Dude is not a Getzlaf up and coming...... but this draft pick??? Will be if Murray is smart.

Edit: Also got they ass whooped by Finland to get knocked out today. Zegras a top 6 regular forward no questions about it. Nothing special about this kid. I would even call em a tweener from 6 to 9 on the depth chart.

The coaching sucked. Zegras should of been playing higher up in the lineup and getting more ice time then he had and despite the coach being a idiot Zegras had 9 points in 5 games which was the most for the team. Please stop saying idiotic things.

These guys just like to hold on to players that will be valueless when the time comes.

Theres absolutely no reason to hold onto silf and henrique at their current age

You need to keep some veterans around you can't be trading so many away and have young inexperienced players playing with so many other young inexperienced players that is not good for their development.
 

Sean Garrity

Quack Quack Quack!
Dec 25, 2007
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Dee Eff UU
I never said to trade our young. I said we need to dump silf, henrique, get some top picks for rakell and gibson

The next five years is bleak. This team wont contend and wont make the play offs. So whats the point of holding on to players that are 27 to 30.

If im able to get 5 top 5 picks in the next five years

Get another 5 picks from 15 to 25, i would have 10 picks total. I just need 1 draisitl and 1 connor and that would be our building block.

So you want to model the team after how the Oilers did it because it’s been so successful?
 

Deuce22

Registered User
Jun 17, 2013
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Top 3 picks in the draft 2010-2019:

Oilers-5 (0 cups)
Avs-2 (0 cups)
Panthers-4 (0 cups)
Leafs-1 (0 cups)
Devils-2 (0 cups)
Sabres-3 (0 cups)
Bruins-1 (won cup in 10-11, selected Seguin that year and he was on the team as a 19 year old)
Jackets-2 (0 cups)
Canadians-2 (0 cups)
Lightning-1 (0 cups)
Coyotes-1 (0 cups)
Jets-1 (0 cups)
Flyers-1 (0 cups)
Stars-1 (0 cups)
Canes-1 (0 cups)
Rangers-1 (0 cups)
Hawks-1 (3 cups, Dach selected last year)

Of the 30 players selected this decade in the top 3, one led to his team winning a Stanley Cup. 1/30 is about 3%. That was a 19 year old rookie. Not to say that some of the players now in the league won't help their teams win a cup someday. This data would seem to indicate that tanking to get a top 3 pick isn't the best route to a Stanley Cup. Yes, I am aware that the Hawks (Kane, Toews) and Pens (Crosby, Malkin) did have top 3 guys on their cup winning teams. Oilers, Panthers, and Sabres have drafted 12 top 3 players combined. How close to a cup are any of them?
 

Sean Garrity

Quack Quack Quack!
Dec 25, 2007
17,455
6,085
Dee Eff UU
Top 3 picks in the draft 2010-2019:

Oilers-5 (0 cups)
Avs-2 (0 cups)
Panthers-4 (0 cups)
Leafs-1 (0 cups)
Devils-2 (0 cups)
Sabres-3 (0 cups)
Bruins-1 (won cup in 10-11, selected Seguin that year and he was on the team as a 19 year old)
Jackets-2 (0 cups)
Canadians-2 (0 cups)
Lightning-1 (0 cups)
Coyotes-1 (0 cups)
Jets-1 (0 cups)
Flyers-1 (0 cups)
Stars-1 (0 cups)
Canes-1 (0 cups)
Rangers-1 (0 cups)
Hawks-1 (3 cups, Dach selected last year)

Of the 30 players selected this decade in the top 3, one led to his team winning a Stanley Cup. 1/30 is about 3%. That was a 19 year old rookie. Not to say that some of the players now in the league won't help their teams win a cup someday. This data would seem to indicate that tanking to get a top 3 pick isn't the best route to a Stanley Cup. Yes, I am aware that the Hawks (Kane, Toews) and Pens (Crosby, Malkin) did have top 3 guys on their cup winning teams. Oilers, Panthers, and Sabres have drafted 12 top 3 players combined. How close to a cup are any of them?
Great work btw, I’m sure that took some time to come up with and you’re a far better individual than I am for doing so.
 
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robbieboy3686

Registered User
Jan 17, 2016
2,852
1,909
What is the allure of trading Silfverberg? Best case scenario is getting a mystery box who in 4-5 years is as good as Silfverberg, with a toss-in of either a current/mystery box 3rd liner like Shore. That’s what a late 1st and late 2nd gets you.
Silf isn’t going anywhere, he said he resigned him because he sees him as a leader ( our team since losing perry Kesler and cogs) desperately lack veteran leadership ( not to mention he’s our best forward )
 
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Exit Dose

Registered User
Jul 2, 2011
29,203
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Georgia
Also apples and oranges. Troy Terry’s heroics were primarily shootout related. It was like Toews, when he did it for Canada. Massively clutch, but a very specific circumstance. A good tournament capped it for him.

Gibson was the MVP of the entire tournament, and the best goaltender.

What Zegras did is more in line with Gibson than Terry. Zegras was the best player for the US, and was putting up a similar MVP kind of performance. He was leading the tournament in points when the US fell. Unfortunately, outside of Zegras they weren’t getting much, and the coach is being universally condemned for his management of the team. That, on top of some pretty damn good talents underperforming(and I suspect coaching was a big part of this too).

For Zegras to have been leading the tournament, while not playing top minutes for his team was a testament to how dangerous he was on the ice. What happens in the NHL is another matter entirely, but this idea that he was nothing more than a 4th liner is just about the most ridiculous statement someone could make to try to dismiss him as a player.
Why do you hate the US team?
 

Ducks in a row

Go Ducks Quack Quack
Dec 17, 2013
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U.S.A.
Sprong and Sherwood practicing with the ducks. Kase injured. Real surprise

Kase is made of glass.png
 
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Jun 2, 2005
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Don't think it says anywhere that Kase is injured. Just not on the ice. Certainly doesn't mean he's not injured but I haven't read it from any source yet.
 

Hockey Duckie

Registered User
Jul 25, 2003
17,662
12,542
southern cal
It's odd to say "we need to be stocking picks" because we have been. We had two first round picks in 2016 (F Jones, C Steel) and another two first round picks in 2019 (C Zegras, LW Tracey). They're just not yet developed for the NHL level. I've already recounted the Oil's decade of top-3 picks for several years and eventually one was a hit in McDavid. In that decade, they've seen the playoffs once. I don't want to be mired for a decade in perpetual failure.

Last year, GM Murray revealed it was bad coaching. This year, GM Murray pushed the youth after stating there was going to be competition, to my dismay. That gamble has failed so far as our youth apparently are still too young. But our consistent nemesis is mass injuries to our roster. I have no idea who's going to be in the lineup from game to game as some of those injuries are also classified as sickness/flu-related. I like knowing we do have a set top-4 in defense along with Gibby in net. We're simply waiting on the youth forwards to catch up to NHL speed, if they ever, in Ritchie, Kase, Steel, Terry, Comtois, Jones, and Lundestrom - all who are or have been available to the NHL club. We have a few more waiting in the wings at juniors/NCAA in Zegras, Tracey, and Groulx. That's 10 youthful forwards that the Ducks have invested in such that a couple or more can be successful at the NHL level consistently, with three of them a couple of years away. We might have hit on another 5th round gem in 2019's Trevor Janicke. We also get another first round pick next year.

But to start tanking now seems very odd b/c it may take even longer as the future draftees may take some time to develop while leaving the NHL club without needed top veterans. I'll tolerate sacrificing this year for our youth forward movement knowing there was a plan in place. It's still a gamble, but it's an extreme gamble to trade away Silf, Rakell, GIbby, etc... because there's a hitch for the time being. Take a look at Zegras, the ninth pick overall where one GM had him rated 3rd overall. Z is still an extra year or two away from the pros b/c he physically will be owned right now.

2019 1st pick overall C Jack Hughes: 36 games, 16 pts (6g), - 10 plus/minus, 37.5% FO wins, 29.8% Def zone starts
2016 30th pick overall C Sam Steel: 36 games, 13 pts (3g), - 11 plus/minus, 52.3% FO wins, 41.2% Def zone starts

There's a significant difference between 1st overall and 30th overall in talent. The route we're taking is a different one that might take a bit longer. We've stockpiled picks, but we're still waiting. We traded D Montour at the trade deadline last year to grab another 1st rounder in the 2019 draft and a D prospect that might still be years away (lol). But trading away Monty didn't hurt the team last year as they went on a tear to close the season out. With the great fortune of Pitt giving us another trash to treasures story in Gudbranson, we're set with our top-4 until 2021 and have the luxury to wait for Larsson or Guhle to develop into a top-4 role (if ever... still dunno. we could re-sign Gudz to a favorable contract seeing how he might only be valuable in Anaheim like C Grant is).

We've reached a game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals with a great goaltender and a bunch of rag-tag players that all meshed. It doesn't make any sense to trade Gibby away right now b/c we don't have another netminder that can replace him today. In a couple of years, we could have that possibility if Dostal keeps his play up throughout. Gibby with our defense at least keeps us near a playoff horizon, when fully healthy.
 

405Exit

Registered User
Mar 15, 2018
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Silf isn’t going anywhere, he said he resigned him because he sees him as a leader ( our team since losing perry Kesler and cogs) desperately lack veteran leadership ( not to mention he’s our best forward )

I can understand that. But I’m rebuilding a team here. I would love Silfverberg to be our Getzlaf who we have for the ages teaching the kids coming in. I’ll move Silfverberg last at all costs.

What I’m willing to ship out is Manson for a top 10 to 15 pick from the Jets, top 5 protected. And I’ll also move Cam Fowler for a late first. That gives Anaheim 3 first round picks in the best draft in the past 5 years.

Me and bracer are on the same page. Getting those picks will bring back the Getzlaf and Perry days. Out with the old and in with the new. We have a lot of up and coming defenseman in our system who can take the bull by it’s horns.
 
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