The Athletic 2019-20 NHL Season Preview: Buffalo Sabres

[old kummelweck]

It's downright mind boggling when you consider that even the NHL video game series has incorporated a progression/regression algorithm for decades now. We have age/performance curves and can even somewhat predict number of games likely to play, it's just lazy analysis.

It's pretty interesting how communication and journalism majors all of a sudden discover they are gifted statisticians.

 

[SabresFanNorthPortFL]

I can't argue with "you suck until you prove otherwise..."

but...

IMO, if Eichel, Rheino, Skinner, MoJo are as advertised/continue up front, it would be nice to get 2 youngsters to impress. How much does our season change if Ollofson and MStadt hit 50 points????

Larson/Girgs do what they did last year against stiff competition, 2 guys come out of nowhere.....all f a sudden we are a bubble/playoff team. Not too far fetched....

I'm from Buffalo, it's next year, right????

 

[jc17]

Young players are definitely the biggest wildcard in these predictions and a few breakouts would be significant.

As much as Phil annoyed me, I think when it comes down to it coaching has a smaller impact than its credited. I looked at a few teams that made jumps like the Islanders. Presumably Trotz is a great coach and made all the players better, but the stats say the players had similar individual metrics and Lehner just stood on his head.

I've yet to see an example of a coach joining a team and each players' individual value increasing, but I havent looked too extensively and would be happy to hear if anyone else can find an example

 

[brian_griffin]

I see a roster where, if you add them up, seven, or 1 out of every 3 players, I'd be willing to replace tomorrow, and roll the dice that 2-3 of them would be better, a 2-3 worse and 2-3 equivalent to the guys currently penciled into the lineup. That's too much to make up with organic growth and emergence of Rochester players.

Unless Ralph Kruger is the Hockey equivalent of Anne Sullivan, this isn't a playoff-caliber roster, and likely a bottom-8 team.

 

[Moskau]

I mean a bottom 8 finish is pretty likely. Teams in our neighbourhood like New Jersey and New York got significantly better.

I also think that in the last 20 games of last year, half the team basically gave up. The lack of effort in those games was honestly ridiculous. If they don't do that this year that might be a source of improvement in points.

I think that if the first 8-12 games go badly, this season could get ugly pretty fast.

Yep. It's honestly ridiculous that we shipped a guy out for reasons last Summer and absolutely none of the 6-8 players that straight up quit on the team last season were traded or waived.

The whole basis for the season seems to be pray Dahlin doesn't slump, pray Mittelstadt gets good very quickly, pray the goaltenders aren't what they were last season and let's ignore that almost everyone on the team quit when they faced adversity last season. Why should anyone think this team that is almost completely the same outside of a few defensemen isn't going to fold like a cheap tent if they start playing poorly? Here's a scary thought... there's almost a 0% chance we have a better record by New Year's Day than we did last season.

Most of us have been sitting here for the last 45 days or so thinking a Ristolainen trade that would make some sense of what this team would look like was coming because f*** me if we actually go into this season with the roster we have. And yet... here we are.

For now I'm going into this season the same way I have for the last 5+ years. Keep expectations very low with the hope that something for the team clicks and players in this organization actually start playing up to their potential.

 

[allsilverdreams]

We added secondary scoring and young good d men.we have a new coach .
I also believe 6K will do some time in Rochester then come up for good taking the job from the 2 scrubs we have now playing goalie.
96 Points we gain from the above reasons

 

[joshjull]

Predictive model using the stats from a team’s previous crappy seasons says they will be bad. No surprise there.

Not saying the prediction is wrong or crazy btw. Just that the process he uses can really only come up with a prediction like this.

 

[Fezzy126]

Young players are definitely the biggest wildcard in these predictions and a few breakouts would be significant.

As much as Phil annoyed me, I think when it comes down to it coaching has a smaller impact than its credited. I looked at a few teams that made jumps like the Islanders. Presumably Trotz is a great coach and made all the players better, but the stats say the players had similar individual metrics and Lehner just stood on his head.

I've yet to see an example of a coach joining a team and each players' individual value increasing, but I havent looked too extensively and would be happy to hear if anyone else can find an example

I don't think coaching gets enough credit, if you check the Islander's charts at Hockeyviz for the last two years they will look like night and day. Here's just one example:

A bad coach tries to hide his weakest links while overly relying on his best players. You see the same thing in youth hockey; (incoming Mighty Ducks reference...) 'close game near the end of the 3rd? Triple shift Adam Banks and sit the other kids so we can win the game'

A good coach leverages every players strength on the roster. e.g. Two years ago Brock Nelson was a fan whipping boy that hadn't lived up to expectations, this past season the 'light' went on. Nah, Trotz just knows how to get the most out of the kid. It's similar to the business world, it's not always about hiring or firing people, it's more about understanding strengths and weaknesses of everyone, and using that knowledge to get the right people working on the right things.

I just hope Ralph is the man...

 

[Buffaloed]

I thought the bad times were almost over when Harry Neale left.

 

[Chainshot]

I hear Chad Johnson is available

I can’t afford that much therapy.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I don't think coaching gets enough credit, if you check the Islander's charts at Hockeyviz for the last two years they will look like night and day. Here's just one example:

A bad coach tries to hide his weakest links while overly relying on his best players. You see the same thing in youth hockey; (incoming Mighty Ducks reference...) 'close game near the end of the 3rd? Triple shift Adam Banks and sit the other kids so we can win the game'

A good coach leverages every players strength on the roster. e.g. Two years ago Brock Nelson was a fan whipping boy that hadn't lived up to expectations, this past season the 'light' went on. Nah, Trotz just knows how to get the most out of the kid. It's similar to the business world, it's not always about hiring or firing people, it's more about understanding strengths and weaknesses of everyone, and using that knowledge to get the right people working on the right things.

I just hope Ralph is the man...

This is huge.

Mike Bales is the most important hire in the organization. If he gets the goalies on track, everything gets better.

Same with Krueger, especially systems and matchups.

 

[member 311261]

My analysis:

Likely Improvements:
Dahlin (year older)
Johansson
Miller
Olofsson
Mitts (year older though still likely to underperform expectations post world Juniors)
Thompson (year older, with extra size couldn't be much worse)
Ullmark (year older, has to improve from last season)
No Hunwick

Likely Downgrades:
Okposo is probably going to continue his decent.
Skinner might regress back towards his mean.
Hutton (another year older)

The other players are likely to continue at or near their historical pace.

Clearly the improvements outweigh the downgrades.

If they shed the deadweight such as Sobotka and Scandella, and maybe rocket Okposo off to some far away distant AHL team a la Moulson, I would say it's likely they will improve quite a bit. If Ullmark plays above league average, they will be in the playoffs.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

My analysis:

Likely Improvements:
Dahlin (year older)
Johansson
Miller
Olofsson
Mitts (year older though still likely to underperform expectations post world Juniors)
Thompson (year older, with extra size couldn't be much worse)
Ullmark (year older, has to improve from last season)
No Hunwick

Likely Downgrades:
Okposo is probably going to continue his decent.
Skinner might regress back towards his mean.
Hutton (another year older)

The other players are likely to continue at or near their historical pace.

Clearly the improvements outweigh the downgrades.

If they shed the deadweight such as Sobotka and Scandella, and maybe rocket Okposo off to some far away distant AHL team a la Moulson, I would say it's likely they will improve quite a bit. If Ullmark plays above league average, they will be in the playoffs.

How many people here aren't counting Montour and Pilut playing two to four times the amount of games compared to last year as an improvement?

I also feel that there is a good chance Skinner improves if playing with Eichel.

 

[brian_griffin]

I have no ****ing clue what to expect.

There's our 50th season motto!!!

Yep. It's honestly ridiculous that we shipped a guy out for reasons last Summer and absolutely none of the 6-8 players that straight up quit on the team last season were traded or waived.

The whole basis for the season seems to be pray Dahlin doesn't slump, pray Mittelstadt gets good very quickly, pray the goaltenders aren't what they were last season and let's ignore that almost everyone on the team quit when they faced adversity last season. Why should anyone think this team that is almost completely the same outside of a few defensemen isn't going to fold like a cheap tent if they start playing poorly? Here's a scary thought... there's almost a 0% chance we have a better record by New Year's Day than we did last season.

Most of us have been sitting here for the last 45 days or so thinking a Ristolainen trade that would make some sense of what this team would look like was coming because **** me if we actually go into this season with the roster we have. And yet... here we are.

For now I'm going into this season the same way I have for the last 5+ years. Keep expectations very low with the hope that something for the team clicks and players in this organization actually start playing up to their potential.

This attitude is the Buffalo Sports reality we've grown to love.

We added secondary scoring and young good d men.we have a new coach .
I also believe 6K will do some time in Rochester then come up for good taking the job from the 2 scrubs we have now playing goalie.
96 Points we gain from the above reasons

Are you hoping or believing?Because the likelihood of a goalie who has played 1 AHL game to date and hasn't turned 21 will be ready for permanent NHL duty later this season is rare.

 

[Sabre the Win]

I wouldn't write off Scandella this year just yet, last year seemed to be an outlier and this is a contract year. He may return to form and give us a boost.

We might see a good Scandella.

 

[DJN21]

I wouldn't write off Scandella this year just yet, last year seemed to be an outlier and this is a contract year. He may return to form and give us a boost.

We might see a good Scandella.

he needs to regain a physical edge and find a way to make his shot hit the net and not the mesh or fellow teammates but I agree its too early to count him out. Imagine this parallell universe...Bogo and Scanedlla have good/great/career years somehow...? Nevermind I just woke up.

 

[Sabre the Win]

he needs to regain a physical edge and find a way to make his shot hit the net and not the mesh or fellow teammates but I agree its too early to count him out. Imagine this parallell universe...Bogo and Scanedlla have good/great/career years somehow...? Nevermind I just woke up.

Bonus: If Scandella wakes up and figures it out and we are out of a playoff spot then we might be able to get an ok return for him.

Bonus x2: Scandella wakes up and figures it out enough to propel our D corps to elite status and we reach playoffs.

*ok I should wake up too

 

[Chainshot]

he needs to regain a physical edge and find a way to make his shot hit the net and not the mesh or fellow teammates but I agree its too early to count him out. Imagine this parallell universe...Bogo and Scanedlla have good/great/career years somehow...? Nevermind I just woke up.

So Scandella reverses two years of flagging play without a talent like Spurgeon to carry him and Bogosian... has a year he hasn't had in nearly a decade? Some dream.

 

[DJN21]

So Scandella reverses two years of flagging play without a talent like Spurgeon to carry him and Bogosian... has a year he hasn't had in nearly a decade? Some dream.

I said I woke up...what more can I do?!