The Athletic 2019-20 NHL Season Preview: Buffalo Sabres

[Buffaloed]

Dom Luszczyszyn predicts more pain and suffering. He has the Sabres finishing 28th with 80 points.
2019-20 NHL Season Preview: Buffalo Sabres

Is there ever going to be a light at the end of the dark tunnel in Buffalo? The Sabres have missed the playoffs in eight straight seasons and in that time frame have won just 230 of their 622 games — 23 fewer than Edmonton, the next worst team. In that span, Buffalo has finished 19th, 23rd, 30th, 30th, 23rd, 26th, 31st and 27th. That’s seven straight seasons in the league’s bottom third and five of the last six seasons in which the team finished in the league’s bottom five.
No fan base deserves this level of suffering. It deserves hope. Sorry to say, it’s not getting it here as the 2019-20 season looks like more of the same. The Sabres have a 94 percent chance of extending their playoff-miss streak to nine seasons.

He says the playoffs aren't an impossibility and that a couple years ago the Devils made it facing worse odds.

Buffalo is well-situated with its top six (under the assumption Casey Mittelstadt eventually makes due on his potential), but the bottom six is severely lacking and that’s where its main trouble lies.

Lack of depth is a major problem but the core is rounding into shape.He think 85 points or more should be the goal.

He previewing all the teams here:
Luszczyszyn: 2019-20 NHL Season Previews
He has the the Sabres finishing ahead of LA, Detroit and Ottawa. WHOOPEE!

Click to read more...

 

[TheMistyStranger]

Same guy that had some ridiculous article last week, so grain of salt.

 

[sabremike]

Dom Luszczyszyn predicts more pain and suffering. He has the Sabres finishing 28th with 80 points.
2019-20 NHL Season Preview: Buffalo Sabres



He says the playoffs aren't an impossibility and that a couple years ago the Devils made it facing worse odds.



Lack of depth is a major problem but the core is rounding into shape.He think 85 points or more should be the goal.

He previewing all the teams here:
Luszczyszyn: 2019-20 NHL Season Previews
He has the the Sabres finishing ahead of LA, Detroit and Ottawa. WHOOPEE!

Well might as well bet your life savings that this draft will end up with 6 surefire prospects and then fall right off a cliff just before we pick 7OA.

 

[Dirty Dog]

I like that everyone keeps saying our top six is fine but not our bottom six. Like no, it’s our entire middle six haha. 1st and 4th can play (especially if they had support from the second and third lines...)

 

[5 Minute Major]

Sounds about right.

 

[Buffaloed]

Expect the worst and you won't be disappointed.

 

[Dingo44]

Expect the worst and you won't be disappointed.

So many here do that regularly and still find a way.

 

[hizzoner]

Last year I really felt we were a bubble team and was horribly let down. I think we have added some good pieces to the team but we need a well coached structured system and balls to the wall attitude to actually be a bubble team this year.

 

[Chainshot]

Even if they have significant improvements from some of their young players, do they have the goaltending?

 

[Sabre the Win]

Nothing I didnt already know

 

[joshjull]

Predictive model using the stats from a team’s previous crappy seasons says they will be bad. No surprise there.

 

[old kummelweck]

Even if they have significant improvements from some of their young players, do they have the goaltending?

If they don't it's another strike against Botterill.

 

[old kummelweck]

I have no f***ing clue what to expect.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Sounds about right to me, I don’t see this team getting any more than like 88 points without some additional changes

 

[Fezzy126]

Even if they have significant improvements from some of their young players, do they have the goaltending?

I hear Chad Johnson is available

 

[Chainshot]

Predictive model using the stats from a team’s previous crappy seasons says they will be bad. No surprise there.

That’s clearly the downside of using those sort of models. Where this team might be able to break through is in youngsters out performing previous expectations while veterans perform two expected levels. There’s no accounting for that ever in any of these which is funny when you think about how teams have to go through that in order to eventually improve.

 

[Fezzy126]

That’s clearly the downside of using those sort of models. Where this team might be able to break through is in youngsters out performing previous expectations while veterans perform two expected levels. There’s no accounting for that ever in any of these which is funny when you think about how teams have to go through that in order to eventually improve.

It's downright mind boggling when you consider that even the NHL video game series has incorporated a progression/regression algorithm for decades now. We have age/performance curves and can even somewhat predict number of games likely to play, it's just lazy analysis.

 

[Gabrielor]

I have no ****ing clue what to expect.

Same. I’m leaning towards it being another top 7-8 pick finish, or worse, but I truly don’t know.

 

[joshjull]

I have no ****ing clue what to expect.

I feel the exact same way. Not a clue what to expect. I’m just in wait and a see what happens mode.

 

[Aladyyn]

Every year we say the models underrate us and every year they are correct.

 

[sufferer]

Seeing as how every team in our division who finished ahead of us last season will likely do the same this coming year, I can only expect another bottom ten finish. Montreal's roster may not be pretty, but they're full of fast defensively responsible forwards and backstopped by Carey Price which Julien can take full advantage of. Other teams in the conference who were bad like NYR and NJ improved considerably and even a stripped down Columbus team could give the Sabres fits with their physicality. The only teams in the East I'm confident are worse than the Sabres are Ottawa and Detroit, tbh. Hopefully the league takes pity upon us and does us a solid with some fortunate ping pong balls in what looks to be a strong draft, at least at the top.

 

[OkimLom]

So many here do that regularly and still find a way.

We're disappointed, because we were right. We WANT to be wrong in the best way possible

But hey, I said they would be a bottom 1-4 team and they were a bottom 5 team...So YAY, progress.

 

[Snippit]

I mean a bottom 8 finish is pretty likely. Teams in our neighbourhood like New Jersey and New York got significantly better.

I also think that in the last 20 games of last year, half the team basically gave up. The lack of effort in those games was honestly ridiculous. If they don't do that this year that might be a source of improvement in points.

I think that if the first 8-12 games go badly, this season could get ugly pretty fast.

 

[sincerity0]

I respect Dom’s work. I do believe his and many other models are fundamentally flawed.

Essentially his model is an objectively weighted box score / counting stats model with an emphasis on offense/goals. I’m not saying that it’s a bad or wildly horrible way to model something. Obviously counting stats like goals and PA are good indicators of future success. Auston Matthews is probably going to have 35-45 goals. Same thing with other good players.

My main gripe is that every year there are teams that make massive leaps in the standings because of player growth. Young players make massive improvements and project their teams to the playoffs.

effectively what we end up with is a situation where unless a team loses/adds a proven elite player their standings projection is staying similar to where they finished last year.

look at his currant bottom 6-7 teams


31.Ottawa
Detroit
Kings
Buffalo
Oilers
Rangers
25.Vancouver

End of Season 2019:
31. Ottawa
30. LA
NJ
DET
BUF
NYR
EDM

it’s like that all the way through. My point is that I believe player tails are much fatter than the model gives credit for.

for example, adding some sort of age-curve coefficient might help project teams that could/should make a sizable improvement. I’m not sure if it was Dom but an article on the athletic had dahlin projected around 45 points. It was silly to me because it’s obvious fact that players make massive jumps in ability in their 18-21 seasons and massive declines (generally) in their 30+ seasons.

IMO I find the analysis solid but again there’s no “wow” factors here. Weight player stats (offensively leaning) and grade players. Historically bad teams will weight that they are bad until proven otherwise. I’d find these analysises much more interesting if they accounted for teams that could drop off or rise up massively.

btw I still agree with buffalos ranking. We are going to stink until proven otherwise

 

[Chainshot]

Every year we say the models underrate us and every year they are correct.

To borrow from their methodology, who has and when? I haven't seen anyone who follows that aspect of the hockey world say f*** all about being underrated on here ever.