Salary Cap: 2019-20 money talk$$$$

[DominicT]

Bruins are in an entirely different situation if we give up a first rounder to move backes. Bruins already have $7.29m in cap space right now with a full 23 man roster. If they trade a 1st to move backes that figure moves up to $13.29m with 22 filled roster spots. Sign Carlo 3x3.5 and McAvoy 4X6.75 (@Dom - OHL estimates on contracts) that leaves $3.04m in cap space but the bruins would have 24 rostered players. So you need to send one downS then if you sign a 2nd line RW you need to send down 2 players. Freeing up $1.5m to $2m putting us roughly at $4.54 or $5.04m in cap space with one extra roster spot for a 2nd line RW.

If more cap space was needed Moore or Miller to LTIR would free up another $2.5m or $2.75m.

Boston and Toronto’s cap situations aren’t even close to similar. Unfortunately the Bruins have waited too far into the offseason to put these plans into motion to grab a 2nd line RW but it was doable.

Just to clarify, my guess on McAvoy was 4 X $6.275. And I did that well before the Provorov deal

 

[UncleRico]

Just to clarify, my guess on McAvoy was 4 X $6.275. And I did that well before the Provorov deal

My apologies dom! I must have missed the 2 in the $6.275 when I looked at it. Well anyone’s that gives my argument another $500k wiggle room then.

 

[Over the volcano]

Bruins are in an entirely different situation if we give up a first rounder to move backes. Bruins already have $7.29m in cap space right now with a full 23 man roster. If they trade a 1st to move backes that figure moves up to $13.29m with 22 filled roster spots. Sign Carlo 3x3.5 and McAvoy 4X6.75 (@Dom - OHL estimates on contracts) that leaves $3.04m in cap space but the bruins would have 24 rostered players. So you need to send one downS then if you sign a 2nd line RW you need to send down 2 players. Freeing up $1.5m to $2m putting us roughly at $4.54 or $5.04m in cap space with one extra roster spot for a 2nd line RW.

If more cap space was needed Moore or Miller to LTIR would free up another $2.5m or $2.75m.

Boston and Toronto’s cap situations aren’t even close to similar. Unfortunately the Bruins have waited too far into the offseason to put these plans into motion to grab a 2nd line RW but it was doable.

That’s fine in imaginationland but why would you give up a first round pick just to avoid LTIR on Moore and/or Miller which seems by your measure to solve the same issue- and who’s the 4.5-5 mil winger you would have signed this year that’d also be worth giving up a first to get?

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

Some of us thought owners would be looking for a cap on second contracts in the current CBA negotiations.

You may find it hard to believe, but its the players that are now looking for a cap on second contracts.

Seeing the turnover in players since the current CBA was negotiated - makes it hard to believe. But I can see why they would push for it. Eventually, the current players will be pushed out for younger, cheaper players.

Its human nature union mentaliy... unions were around in all walks of life for more than 100 years... theyve always acted the same

Unions are prioritized to protect the interest of long term dues paying tenured members

Hockey is interesting because it is a union but its also a sport where peak fitnes is required to excel...

And then its an entertainment... in the world of entertainment the casual fan likes famous farmiliar brand names

So three huge motivations pulling 3 directions

Lots of reports that the league is going to stop over estimating revenue growth... we wont see the escalator for a couple years... cap will flatline to solve the escalator from stealing vet money to finance the kids big contracts

Is that enough fix to solve the problem? They are talking about gambling money and a new billion dollar us tv contract around the corner... so maybe it will fix itself

I still think if toronto wrecks as im predicting... trouble in hockeys capital will ultimately be the one issue that might unravel things

Its all very intesting to me though... very high stakes

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

I would give up a first round draft pick right now to get rid of Backes contract if it meant we can sign a 2nd line RW for krejci as well as sign McAvoy and Carlo

Someone like kevan miller is going to afford mcavoy/carlo because we dont need 8 dmen

As for backes going... we got debrusk, krug, coyle needing new deals next year... backes will go but the money is already tagged

We were in the finals this past year... its good... keep the band together... hope kids develop... use the trade deadline for plugging holes

Cross fingers

 

[member 96824]

Spurgeon just signed for 7.5+ until he’s 38.

I’d rather pay that to an RFA any day of the week, no questions asked.

 

[UncleRico]

That’s fine in imaginationland but why would you give up a first round pick just to avoid LTIR on Moore and/or Miller which seems by your measure to solve the same issue- and who’s the 4.5-5 mil winger you would have signed this year that’d also be worth giving up a first to get?

I never said to avoid LTIR. I said it was $4.5 to $5m without LTIR Moore or Miller and then putting them on LTIR would free up an additional $2.5m to $2.75m by putting either Moore or Miller on LTIR which would give you $7m-$8m to spend on a 2nd line RW

 

[member 96824]

Stabbed or shot take your pick. I'd rather pay players in their prime, not before , not after. Only one way to that. ELC,Bridge 3-4 years,RFA mixed with UFA

Ehh, I think things have changed so much and the prime happens much earlier now.

I would also argue long term, your method is much more expensive. You’d rather negotiate with a player in their prime than lock them up before and have them during?

See: Keith, Duncan and Seabrook, Brent. PK Subban also followed that exact path and it ended up being way more expensive for the team if you assume they could have got him for $7M long term instead of bridging. There’s a reason players prefer this route, it’s not cause they’re feeling generous toward Jeremy Jacobs’ pocketbook.

Your only hope paying at the peak is that A. Their peak extends and B. The cap grows faster than the player drops off.

For example, if the choice comes down to giving 8 mil for a McAvoy or Krug...you’ll be happier we gave it to Krug?

I dunno. Lock em up early, take the raised hit for the first year or two and enjoy the long term value

 

[UncleRico]

Someone like kevan miller is going to afford mcavoy/carlo because we dont need 8 dmen

As for backes going... we got debrusk, krug, coyle needing new deals next year... backes will go but the money is already tagged

We were in the finals this past year... its good... keep the band together... hope kids develop... use the trade deadline for plugging holes

Cross fingers

I’m most likely in the minority here but I do not see Krug signing back here next summer. I don’t think Sweeney and Neely will give him the deal he wants.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

I’m most likely in the minority here but I do not see Krug signing back here next summer. I don’t think Sweeney and Neely will give him the deal he wants.

I guess it could playout that way... they say theres no talks going on about an extension yet... and that spurgeon deal today sets the market for guys krugs size/age... its scary to pay that term for such a small dman when nhl history is very unkind to these players after they get 31-32

I must admit I really liked krugs growth last year and id overpay him on shorter term to keep him... but would he go for that?

moving krug now... like we did with boychuk/lucic would maximize a return/fix our short term cap problem... and save us from throwing away an asset on the backes move.

example... we might trade backes and a first for some crap
or trade krug for a first and a good prospect

so then the deal becomes krug for 2 firsts an a prospect because we didnt need to do the backes deal.

personally... I think krug is an important part of the locker room now ontop of being our pp qb… if he would take a 4 year deal in that 7-7.5 mill area I would be inclined to keep him. maybe thats the play... get McAvoy/carlo signed then go to krug before the start of the season and basically ultimatum him. if he wants to stay, take the shorter term deal... if not move him

if he stays... then move miller\moore when they come off the ltir even if you have to give them away for free.. krug is better than both these guys put together...

and in my mind... I continue to think backes will end up on ltir. if thats true, theres no need to panic trade him now.

so I guess that would be my plan
1/get McAvoy/carlo signed
2/test the krug market for his extension
3/determin is backes is going onto ltir or not
4/deal krug only if necessary
5/preferably keep krug and if backes went on ltir... then look at miller for a trade
6/deal moore only if necessary
last resort/deal backes if necesary

 

[JOKER 192]

Ehh, I think things have changed so much and the prime happens much earlier now.

I would also argue long term, your method is much more expensive. You’d rather negotiate with a player in their prime than lock them up before and have them during?

See: Keith, Duncan and Seabrook, Brent. PK Subban also followed that exact path and it ended up being way more expensive for the team if you assume they could have got him for $7M long term instead of bridging. There’s a reason players prefer this route, it’s not cause they’re feeling generous toward Jeremy Jacobs’ pocketbook.

Your only hope paying at the peak is that A. Their peak extends and B. The cap grows faster than the player drops off.

For example, if the choice comes down to giving 8 mil for a McAvoy or Krug...you’ll be happier we gave it to Krug?

I dunno. Lock em up early, take the raised hit for the first year or two and enjoy the long term value

The odds if it costing more I would agree are higher , the odds of paying for an unproductive , passed his prime player are lowered .

 

[Over the volcano]

I’m most likely in the minority here but I do not see Krug signing back here next summer. I don’t think Sweeney and Neely will give him the deal he wants.

If he takes Marchand money I think they keep him - but if he goes for the full UFA $ there’s no way they can/should work it. They love him but other teams are more desperate for what he brings.


Edit

McAvoy deal looks great

 

[LouJersey]

sign Carlo 2.5

26 mil about for next season if cap 83m

buy backes out adds 2 mil

28 mil

Coyle 6/6.0
Krug 5/6.75
Gryz 3/2.5
Chara 1/2.o
Jake 2/3.75

7 mil left for back up goalie and 3 forward spots

#Sweenius

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

the mcavoy deal is as shocking to me as that 1 mill deal signed in san jose… it doesnt happen too often that a kid takes way below market value to help his team WIN, but when it happens you have to give out the major props.

bourque used to take below market value his entire career here... its pretty amazing to see that maybe we got another guy doing it here now too

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

just because Toronto is our main rival now... and because a bunch of know-it-alls here told me they were in great shape with their cap and had a good problem

right now toronto has 81.201,886 committed to 23 healthy bodies and their retained salary... they have 2 live bodies on ltir Zach hyman and travis dermott who have a cap hit of 3,113,333 once they are off the LTIR

so...they need to clear 3 million dollars from their current 23 men in order to slide hyman/dermott into the lineup

they currently have 4 minor league dmen on the roster making 2.8 million... if they demote all 4 guys it still wont be enough and it would leave them only 5 dmen on the team... so logic says they can only demote 3 which gives them 2.1 mill in relief. now they have to get rid of a forward that makes at least 900k

they have 8 guys making 2 mill plus... and they have 5 guys not making 900k... and the ONLY guy that would solve this problem is ilya mikheyev

so... holy crap... it looks like they have to demote 2 forwards and 3 dmen in order to activate hyman and dermott

this would give Toronto an everyday roster through the season of 12 forwards and 6 dmen and 2 goalies!!!

they would have a couple hundred k extra but that will get eaten up due to callups very quickly. all teams have little bruises/flus/players taking a day off for a baby or other personal reasons...

so far there cap problems have cost them kadri, a first round pick, watching gardiner walk away... they managed to get ceci/muzzin/barrie which might be an upgrade over gardiner/hainsey/Zaitsev but all 3 guys are ufa next year

I said Toronto has peaked and is now in decline because of the cap... I said their window of opportunity closed before they won a single playoff round.... people laughed and mocked me. this situation continues to develop. some of their fans still dont understand just how bad the cap is.

I heard one smart Toronto fan talking about how brilliant they are getting Clarkson contract to increase their cap not realizing there is no magic way to increase the cap. getting clarksson might make it easier to do the paperwork necessary to maximize the benefit of the Horton \ltir money but you never get additional cap room. the max is the max. LTIR deals only guarantee that you will be screwed as far as trying to do trade deadline deals and covering end-of-season bonus money

its so intresting

I watch the Toronto situation closely because its the most interesting but ive mentioned the problems in Winnipeg and Calgary too. how badly do they need to hurt to get their kids signed?

the canadian teams are super important for the league revenues but no canadien team has won a cup since 1993. if these young teams all get hurt by this cap now, how will the fans be reacting in 2-3 years?

right now with expansion and all the expecations about gambling money, the owners have decided not to mess around with the cba but there is more to happiness in the nhl than a team in seattle/and some casual betting in the usa. these canadian teams were told if they suffer through losing seasons, they can build through the draft and compete but thats a bill of goods now.

I was saying that the players union would be complaining about the kids getting big contracts and this would be a major problem in the new cba. now people seem surprised that the players are trying to eliminate escrow and are trying to limit how much money is there for the kids. I know fans say they would rather pay the kids... but the nhl is a union. unions protect the long term due paying members.

next 2 years are going to need to be cap neutral as far as potential increases go if they are to eliminate the escrow. if you all thought this year was a mess to get the kids signed just wait. by this time next year, everyone will see the fire and I suppose some of you will say no one saw it coming.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

have the kevin hayes and now the brayden schenn deals just set the market for Charlie coyle I wonder? schenn did have a 70 point season and is a regular 50 point guy... a couple achievements coyle hasnt yet managed. the hayes deal looks like a blatant overpayment by a bad team trying to attract an ufa.

the schenn deal seems the more likely starting point for coyle. coyle is a home town boy and i wonder if he would take a hometown discount? could we get him at 6X5 or 5.5? is he worth that to us? could we get it as low as 5 mill per year if we went 7 years maybe?

the hayes comparable scares the crap out of me... honestly i think coyle is a better player than hayes. but to me, schenn is better than both guys. lets hope some sanity is prevailing and we might get to keep coyle after all

 

[Johnnyduke]

Hadn't looked at this in a while but with the dead money the Bruins have coming off the books after this year the only bad contract I see for next year is Backes. They are in pretty good shape cap wise. Is Backes a buyout candidate for next year? What would the hit be?

 

[Glove Malfunction]

Hadn't looked at this in a while but with the dead money the Bruins have coming off the books after this year the only bad contract I see for next year is Backes. They are in pretty good shape cap wise. Is Backes a buyout candidate for next year? What would the hit be?

If they bought out Backes after this season, they would save $2M next year, and it would cost $1M in dead money the following year. Not hugely exciting, but worth thinking about.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

as november rolls around I am seeing more trade proposals asking for guys like taylor hall and chris Kreider for next year... I thought id look at our cap situation

these are the 14 guys currently signed for next year

Brad Marchand 6.125/Patrice Bergeron 6.875/David Pastrnak 6.666,666
X/David Krecji 7.250/X
Danton Heinen 2.800/X/X
X/Sean Kuraly 1.175/Par Lindholm .850
david backes 6

X/Charlie Mcavoy 4.9
X/Brandon Carlo 2.85
John Moore 2.750/Conor Clifton 1
Steven Kampfer .800

Tuuka Rask 7
X

they are going to be paid 57,041,666

the 9 most likely guys to fill the missing spots

krug/grzelyck/chara on the bluelines
halak in net
and debrusk/coyle/Ritchie/Bjork/kuhlman up front

that leaves wagner/Nordstrom/miller on the outs... no room for a kid to make the lineup anywhere

I think a conservative number to resign these 9 guys is 26 mill

that would put our cap hit at 83 mill... I also think chara's bonus structure is going to eat into the cap for next year.

so... we have a cap problem right away

the easiest fix is to trade away backs {its possible a buyout might fix the problem too but thats the least desirable fix}

theres some chance we wont bring chara back... also some chance we would trade moore… we have elc left shot dmen capable of playing bottom pair.

dealing away backes might cost us a significant asset... so any trades we are thinking of that might add cap room now... need to factor in this asset loss

unless you are planning to get rid of a big ticket item that I have slotted in... there is no room for big price additions next year.

and for those that dont understand how quickly the cap gets totally messed up I invite you to look at cap friendly today. we have 27 contracts counting {not just the 23 man limit}

a lot of people that try to armchair manage the cap from home think that they can go with 22 men... or 21... and cleverly make their cap work. reality is that theres many days like today during a year where a team would have 25-26 or more salaries counting.

I definitely invite everyone to watch the fun in Toronto when they attempt to go with a 21 man roster for most of this year... they are already talking about playing short of 18 skaters to try to use the emergency recall loophole... its going to be a HUGE news story staring in the next month

luckily our team was a top 3 team last year with our roster... is going to be this year... and is probably going to be next year too. it might not seem sexy to say we cant add more big names to the mix, but weve done a hell of a good job choosing which names to add now in the present

our opportunity for improvement will occur if some of the kids develop... so instead of dreaming of trades for very expensive players... invest your karma into hoping our kids will break through

 

[DominicT]

that would put our cap hit at 83 mill... I also think chara's bonus structure is going to eat into the cap for next year.

so... we have a cap problem right away

I think it is far too early to be thinking that Chara's bonus structure is going to effect next years cap, or anyone else on the roster for that matter.

And I do believe the Bruins, namely Evan Gold who is a master at manipulating the cap, have an eye invested on the cap situation for next year.

The Bruins currently have approximately $1.3 million in accrued cap space for the end of the season. And that number will rise as Moore comes off LTIR and they get the roster down to 23. The total performance bonuses Bruins players can earn is $1.77 million. Unless somehow Zboril is called up and earns his $637,500 in bonuses. I don't see that happening do you? Didn't think so.

I think the Bruins (as is the rest of the league) are more worried that there won't be a cap increase then they are about carry over bonuses.

I would highly recommend reading up on Accruable Cap Space Limit. You can find it on CapFriendly LTIR FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Basically, the space the Bruins had between cap hit and the upper limit when Moore was placed on LTIR accrues - bringing the Bruins cap space at the end of the season to $1.3 million. And as I said, it will continue to rise once Moore comes off LTIR and they can bank even more space. Or is it Moore space? (sorry, I had to do that)