Speculation: 2019-20 Expected Blackhawks Roster Part II

[RememberTheRoar]

Well, looks like Colliton is at least playing around with the idea of splitting Toews and Kane.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Well, looks like Colliton is at least playing around with the idea of splitting Toews and Kane.

Lol let's straddle Toews with junk..makes sense. What a joke. That line up is atrocious.

 

[ClydeLee]

Lol let's straddle Toews with junk..makes sense. What a joke. That line up is atrocious.

And literally a line people were clamoring for the past two offseasons

 

[jls24]

Well, looks like Colliton is at least playing around with the idea of splitting Toews and Kane.

Just nice to see Kampf back. Underrated how much he improves the bottom 6.

 

[Rick C137]

At least from what I’ve seen of the lines in Rockford, JC likes to spread his scoring among 3 lines which I completely agree with. The problem is we don’t have the depth to support it right now. I thought Saad was doing a fine job bum slaying on line 3.

Lol let's straddle Toews with junk..makes sense. What a joke. That line up is atrocious.

Saad is on pace for 27 goals while playing a strong two way game. Mind explaining how that’s junk?

If you consistently score 20+ in this league, you can’t be classified as “junk”.

 

[AmericanDream]

season is over, time to full on experiment and give some guys more of a look in different scenarios. Hayden going to the top line is a make or break for him to see if he can amount to anything - I have been asking to see him there to see if he can be the net presence he should be..if he looks like dog shit then he is likely gone/traded over the summer as too many others will be coming up/in to play 4th line roles here.

Perlini getting a chance as well, nothing wrong with it as this isn't set in stone, so let's see what these guys do with these chances...shit or get off the pot for both Hayden and Perlini.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

At least from what I’ve seen of the lines in Rockford, JC likes to spread his scoring among 3 lines which I completely agree with. The problem is we don’t have the depth to support it right now. I thought Saad was doing a fine job bum slaying on line 3.



Saad is on pace for 27 goals while playing a strong two way game. Mind explaining how that’s junk?

If you consistently score 20+ in this league, you are a damn good player.

If he's going to spread out Toews, Kane, and DeBrincat again, he needs to figure out a way to get all of them top-six level ice time.

That was my only complaint with the way he did it last time. DeBrincat got screwed on ice time. If he's going to spread it out, he needs to roll the lines more like Sullivan did -- getting Crosby, Malkin, and Kessel first-line level time

 

[RayP]

Well, looks like Colliton is at least playing around with the idea of splitting Toews and Kane.

I’m so f***ing sick of Hayden. He better not actually get time on the 1st line.

 

[RayP]

Asking again, for those that don't want to go after Panarin, how else would you like Bowman to allocate the Hawks upcoming cap space? 2019-20 Cap Ceiling...it's projected to be $83 FWIW. It's kind of a big write up, but projecting out the next two years (with as little accuracy as one can have) it does fit and it's totally possible to re-sign everyone...

2019-20 SEASON:

Cap Space: $22.1M
Hawks UFA's: Kruger, Ward, Kunitz
Hawks RFA's: Sikura, Perlini, Forlsing, Koekkoek, Dahlstrom, Kampf

Assumptions...

• None of Kruger, Ward, or Kunitz are brought back
• It isn't possible to see how training camp will affect opening day rosters, so assume the young players on ELCs currently on roster will be on the roster next season as well, if not, the cap hits to replacement ELC players will be similar and negligible
• I would be very surprised if all 6 of the Hawks 2019-20 RFA's are re-signed. Assuming they are however, I'd bet all 6 can be re-signed for a very generous total of $8M ($1.3M average cap hit for all 6) which brings the Hawks available cap space from $22.1M to $14.1M
• Panarin signs a 7 year, $10M AAV contract
• Anisimov is not traded yet and does not yet need to be traded for next season's cap to work

Lines...

Panarin-Toews-Kane
DeBrincat-Strome-Kahun
Saad-Anisimov-Hayden
Perlini-Kampf-Caggiula

Keith-Jokiharju
Gus-Murphy
Koekkoek-Seabrook

Crawford
Delia

Cap Space: $4.1M

2020-21 SEASON:

Cap Space: $26.4M
Hawks UFA's: Gustafsson, Crawford
Hawks RFA's: Caggiula, Kahun, Strome, DeBrincat, Hayden

Assumptions...

• $85.3M Cap Ceiling [Since Toews and Kane signed their contracts, the salary cap (including the projected $83M Cap ceiling next year) has gone up on average $2.3M]
• Anisimov is traded, bringing Hawks available cap space to $30.9M
  
• All of Hawks UFA's and RFA's are playing well enough to be re-signed
• Caggiula, Kahun, and Hayden are not going to command large contract increases. All three can be retained for a total of $4.5 M ($1.5 each), bringing Hawks available cap space back to $26.4M leaving Gus, Strome, DeBrincat, and Crawford to be re-signed
• $26.4 M to re-sign Gustafsson, Strome, DeBrincat, and Crawford to brand new contracts for a maximum average of $6.6M AAV

Alrighty then, there it is. It's possible to fit Panarin without damaging our ability to re-sign all of our upcoming RFA's next year. Clearly lots of assumptions and it's not possible to see that far out ahead, but it definitely can be done. I purposefully went a little heavy with re-signing our RFA's but they can just as easily not be signed and be replaced by guys still on ELC's...giving even more cap space. Just so it's not a massive quote if/when posters reply to me, i'll make another post simplifying my point...

Just because you have the cap space now means you have to use it. This team may be better off with one more developmental year while the defensive prospects mature. So why lock into a long term deal and put yourself in another cap crunch now? Save it and use it to keep your new core and extend Strome, Cat, and Gus. Develop your defensive prospects. Use the cap space in depth pieces when you’re ready to legit compete again.

Blowing 10 million on Panarin would be a huge mistake and your defense still sucks ass. Sure you wind up scoring more but the defense is still so awful they’re a wild card team with no legit chance at a Cup at best.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Save it and use it to keep your new core and extend Strome, Cat, and Gus

All can be re-signed with Panarin on roster

Develop your defensive prospects

Unless Guatafsson and/or Murphy are traded, there are only two available spots for defenseman on the roster

Use the cap space in depth pieces when you’re ready to legit compete again

It’s no guarantee this team will ever be legit ready. Panarin is one of the best at his position and he might be available. This situation almost never happens

 

[RayP]

All can be re-signed with Panarin on roster



Unless Guatafsson and/or Murphy are traded, there are only two available spots for defenseman on the roster



It’s no guarantee this team will ever be legit ready. Panarin is one of the best at his position and he might be available. This situation almost never happens

What does Panarin add and fix to this current roster?

They have no problems scoring whatsoever. Is Panarin going to help the defensive play? At best you can say we possess the puck more and have to play defense less. That’s hardly going to solve the worst defense in the league especially as Keith continues to age.

And “only” two defensive spots available? We have 3 defenders worth starting at best. Keith, Gus, and Murphy. The rest are crap.

 

[RayP]

Also I don’t know how you can say you for sure can sign Panarin at 10M and still have room for Strome and Cat’s extensions AND still having room for quality depth pieces.

Sure we have a lot of great prospects, but they’re not all going to pan out.

I love Panarin but spending that much on an offensive focused winger is the last thing this team needs to get back on track. He’s a luxury item basically.

 

[x Tame Impala]

What does Panarin add and fix to this current roster?

They have no problems scoring whatsoever. Is Panarin going to help the defensive play? At best you can say we possess the puck more and have to play defense less. That’s hardly going to solve the worst defense in the league especially as Keith continues to age.

And “only” two defensive spots available? We have 3 defenders worth starting at best. Keith, Gus, and Murphy. The rest are crap.

Panarin adds more elite scoring ability.

Seabrook is on the roster for the foreseeable future with the only way around it being having him be scratched every night as dead cap space, or a compliance buyout that is of no guarantee to happen. That’s four spots locked up.

 

[RayP]

Panarin adds more elite scoring ability.

Seabrook is on the roster for the foreseeable future with the only way around it being having him be scratched every night as dead cap space, or a compliance buyout that is of no guarantee to happen. That’s four spots locked up.

Yes, he adds elite scoring... which isn’t a pressing need. That’s a luxury item to add at this point. This team sucks because of lack of quality depth, but because they need an elite scoring winger.

Everyone also seems to be writing off AA but who replaces him and at what hit?

 

[x Tame Impala]

Also I don’t know how you can say you for sure can sign Panarin at 10M and still have room for Strome and Cat’s extensions AND still having room for quality depth pieces.

Sure we have a lot of great prospects, but they’re not all going to pan out.

I love Panarin but spending that much on an offensive focused winger is the last thing this team needs to get back on track. He’s a luxury item basically.

I showed in my write up that Panarin, Gus, Strome, DBC, Kampf, and even Crawford can all be re-signed AND we can re-sign all of our current RFA’s. We get even more cap space by not re-signing some of them. Also, Panarin moves a lot of forwards down the lineup, giving us more depth

 

[ChiHawk21]

It looks good. I wouldn’t be upset with that. At the same time, I also like spreading things around like @AmericanDream has been posting, get more rugged for the playoffs, guys like Nelson and Tanev. My personal preference is bring back Ward and Kunitz, maybe sign a guy like Tanev and just let nature take it’s course so I won’t comment too much on free agency.

hmm i didnt think anyone would be looking for this. could you explain why you would look to do this? seems like both are past the point in there career that they can help a team.

 

[RayP]

I showed in my write up that Panarin, Gus, Strome, DBC, Kampf, and even Crawford can all be re-signed AND we can re-sign all of our current RFA’s. We get even more cap space by not re-signing some of them. Also, Panarin moves a lot of forwards down the lineup, giving us more depth

I’ll look closer at the write up after work.... Where I am at with this though is I don’t understand how someone can watch this team and come to the conclusion the best way to fix it is signing Panarin to 10M by 7 and then hoping you still have enough money to retain everyone else. Especially when they’re having no problem putting the pucks in the net at all.

 

[ColdSteel2]

hmm i didnt think anyone would be looking for this. could you explain why you would look to do this? seems like both are past the point in there career that they can help a team.

Seeing the rest of the league, it’s clear to me this team isn’t going anywhere until the young defensemen can make an impact. That’s not going to happen until after next season.

Next season is another write off to me. We need to get Delia playing time and see if he is the new number 1. We don’t know if Crawford will be good or healthy enough to make it through the year. Ward can fill in the gaps. Maybe we can create a Roger Clemens type situation where he doesn’t have to always travel with the team and can spend more time with his family. I still think he is a decent enough backup with the ability to play for long stretches. Kunitz or someone like him is the same, a part time placeholder until the young players displace him.

I’m not going to be mad if they go spend a bunch of money on free agent forwards, but that isn’t going to help us enough next year to become competitive. We need much better defensemen and goaltending, period. And if we do bring in Panarin or whoever up front, it’s going to drive the point production of Cat and Strome up right before they sign long term deals. For me, it’s in our best long term interests to replicate what we did this year and then spend big starting next offseason.

 

[Hawkaholic]

At least from what I’ve seen of the lines in Rockford, JC likes to spread his scoring among 3 lines which I completely agree with. The problem is we don’t have the depth to support it right now. I thought Saad was doing a fine job bum slaying on line 3.



Saad is on pace for 27 goals while playing a strong two way game. Mind explaining how that’s junk?

If you consistently score 20+ in this league, you can’t be classified as “junk”.

I'm talking about Hayden.

 

[Rick C137]

I'm talking about Hayden.

Straddle in that context generally means on both sides.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

 

[ozzzie19]

Cap Hit Calculations

SEASON	BASE SALARY	INITIAL CAP HIT	ACTUAL COST	SAVINGS	FINAL CAP HIT
2019-20	$4,000,000	$6,875,000	$833,333	$3,166,667	$3,708,333
2020-21	$1,000,000	$6,875,000	$833,333	$166,667	$6,708,333
2021-22	$4,000,000	$6,875,000	$833,333	$3,166,667	$3,708,333
2022-23	$1,000,000	$6,875,000	$833,333	$166,667	$6,708,333
2023-24	$2,500,000	$6,875,000	$833,333	$1,666,667	$5,208,333
2024-25	$0	$0	$833,333	-$833,333	$833,333
2025-26	$0	$0	$833,333	-$833,333	$833,333
2026-27	$0	$0	$833,333	-$833,333	$833,333
2027-28	$0	$0	$833,333	-$833,333	$833,333
2028-29	$0	$0	$833,333	-$833,333	$833,333
TOTAL	$12,500,000	$34,375,000	$8,333,333	$4,166,667	$30,208,333

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This is what buying him out would look like if we did it this off season. It's not a whole lot of savings overall and you'd be adding 5 years of cap hits on the back end. There could be a compliance buyout coming in the new cba. They need to see if that's a thing before even considering it. I don't think it's a realistic option at this point.

Right, his contract is structured to not facilitate a buy out due to the swings in his base salary vs signing bonus. You’d get decent savings next year (when we have tons of cap space) and no savings the following year when Strome/Cat are due for their huge raises.

Not only did he get a monster above market contract paying for past performance, he got the NMC AND an unbuyoutable contract.

 

[HjamSandwich]

Right, his contract is structured to not facilitate a buy out due to the swings in his base salary vs signing bonus. You’d get decent savings next year (when we have tons of cap space) and no savings the following year when Strome/Cat are due for their huge raises.

Not only did he get a monster above market contract paying for past performance, he got the NMC AND an unbuyoutable contract.

Yeah is that why those swings in base salary vs signing bonus are in there?

We really rolled over on that contract negotiation. Jeeze.

 

[Pez68]

I would be willing to move Hawks 1st round pick this year for Larsson

He is only 26 , Signed for 3 more years at very good cap hit and is exactly type of defender we need

I expect there would be a lot of pushback on that here

LOL.......

 

[ozzzie19]

So for all of you who say the Hawks should spend that cap space on defense, you have to answer a few questions for me first...

1. With ~$15M in cap space and 6 RFA's to re-sign this offseason, what defenseman/two-way forwards are you bringing to this Hawks team? What UFA's are available? Who is available for trades and what are you planning on giving up for these players?
2. How do you work around the logjam of defenseman we have on the roster right now? Keith and Seabrook were either not asked, or do not want to waive their NMC's so assume their combined cap hit of $12.4M is on the books for the next 4 season. Murphy is on contract for another 3 seasons. Gustafsson will need a new contract at the end of next season. That's leaves only TWO available spots for defenseman the next 3 seasons.
3. How do you work around the logjam of defenseman we have that are projected to be on the roster in a few years? It's already difficult enough to fit in Koekkoek, Forsling, Jokiharju, and Dahlstrom. Then if you add in Boqvist, Beaudin, Mitchell, that's even more players fighting for roster spots. Potentially 7 guys fighting over 2 spots available for 3 more seasons

Certainly varying degrees of plausibility, but:

This UFA defensive crop doesn’t really match with the team’s needs, and we need to maintain flexibility to re-sign Strome/Cat, so I’d look toward the trade market for guys going UFA in a year. Faulk and Tanev are guys who have previously been Hawks trade rumors. There are other not as exciting defensive defensemen who could be moved like Bogosian, MacDonald, Greene, Ericsson, TVR, Kevan Miller.

I’d also look to develop a true matchup line. Right now the AA/Saad/Sikura line is being used that way which they are woefully unequipted for. Bringing in true two-way players for this line would go a long way to shutting down the middle-pack of the Western Conference which is rife with 1-line teams. There are a few UFA centers who could fit the bill to varying degrees like Brassard and Johansson (Staal would have been a good fit, before he signed his extension). Or if you can look past his insane SH% and he’ll take a reasonable deal, Pavelski could work. UFA wingers like Zuccarello, Justin Williams, Hagelin, Dzingel, Tanev could round out the line.

Or we could look to utilize our cap space to take on an expiring contract in exchange for a good player on a cap strapped team. An example would be taking on Callahan’s contract if the Lightning also threw in Palat.

NOTE: I’m assuming all bridges are burned between he Hawks and Hayes. Also, I’m assuming that offer sheets are off the table because the NHL is stupid.