Blue Jays GDT: 2018 v3| Next: Wed, Sept 5| vs TB| 7pm ET/4pm PT | Glasnow vs Sanchez

[The Nemesis]

**** you, Clippard. You suck.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Does anyone remember when was the last time Jays had a home win?

 

[canucksfan]

Grichuk has had a good game.

 

[AcerComputer]

Does anyone remember when was the last time Jays had a home win?

Today?

 

[Suntouchable13]

Today?

OK, they finally did it. If my post worked like a reverse jinx then that's great

 

[Suntouchable13]

Solarte is just another replacement level player that shouldn't be playing every day on a good team.

 

[Anthrax442]

"Git up ball."

Ugh!!!

 

[The Nemesis]

 

[Suntouchable13]

Not a good game by Travis

 

[canucksfan]

Nice catch by Teoscar. Looks so much better in LF.

 

[Discoverer]

Solarte is just another replacement level player that shouldn't be playing every day on a good team.

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

 

[canucksfan]

What a catch

 

[Scott Malkinson]

Die hard Jays fan.

I can't believe you guys are still watching the games.

Really hoping for a top 3 pick next June.

 

[Eyedea]

Die hard Jays fan.

I can't believe you guys are still watching the games.

Really hoping for a top 3 pick next June.

Solid chance Jays won’t finish in the bottom 5.

 

[Anthrax442]

Grichuk's power in his facial hair

 

[Cleetus]

Biagini failed to retire a batter, here comes Clippard.

 

[The Nemesis]

Biagini failed to retire a batter, here comes Clippard.

what could possibly go wrong?

 

[Cleetus]

what could possibly go wrong?

well he pitched well, wild pitch done them in, the bullpen leaves a lot to be desired lol

 

[Discoverer]

Die hard Jays fan.

I can't believe you guys are still watching the games.

Really hoping for a top 3 pick next June.

Giving up on the team and refusing to watch less than half way into a tough season doesn't exactly scream "die hard".

 

[Scott Malkinson]

Giving up on the team and refusing to watch less than half way into a tough season doesn't exactly scream "die hard".

I have better things to do with my life than watch an underwhelming team shit the bed.

I love my team but they don't deserve the ratings, the way they've handled this situation.

 

[hoglund]

well he pitched well, wild pitch done them in, the bullpen leaves a lot to be desired lol

Tepara is a bright spot in the bullpen.

 

[canucksfan]

I have better things to do with my life than watch an underwhelming team **** the bed.

I love my team but they don't deserve the ratings, the way they've handled this situation.

It's fair that you have better things to do. However, for the most part, the management group has done a very nice job. Jays have one of the best farm systems in the MLB.

 

[Scott Malkinson]

It's fair that you have better things to do. However, for the most part, the management group has done a very nice job. Jays have one of the best farm systems in the MLB.

I keep tabs on the prospects. I know we're in a good place. I just can't bring myself to watch the games.

Good on you guys, if you do. There is something relaxing about watching baseball. I get it.

 

[The Nemesis]

Die hard Jays fan.

I can't believe you guys are still watching the games.

Really hoping for a top 3 pick next June.

Tanking for the draft is largely a pointless and unnecessary exercise in baseball. It only gets bandied about by fans because it's what everyone's used to with NHL/NBA/NFL teams and there's a natural (incorrect) assumption that it holds its viability as a strategy for baseball too. But the reality is that the exceedingly random nature of baseball drafting (far more high baseball draft picks bust and amount to absolutely nothing than other spots, and ultimate talent level/mlb success is far less tied to draft position than other sports), the incredible attrition rate of prospects, the vast size and depth of organizations in terms of churning through prospects, and the lengthy time frame for developing picks make tanking less attractive and less useful. It simply takes too long, is fraught with too much risk, and is too likely to blow up in your face to be a tenable strategy.

Real "tanking" in baseball is accomplished by collecting a lot of attractive trade chip MLBers and having a fire sale to turn them into good prospects who have already shaken off most of their risk.

Just as a for example, consider the following:

From the 2004 draft, the top 10 1st rounders (including supplemental 1sts) by cumulative career bWAR, by draft position are (underlined are the top 5 values. Italics are picks 1-3):

2, 12, 38, 11, 15, 40, 14, 23, 22, 20


From 2005:
5, 7, 11, 4, 2, 1, 23, 28, 12 42

2006:
7, 3, 11, 10, 21, 5, 6, 8, 30, 41

2007:
48 (it's Donaldson), 1, 14, 10, 34, 5, 27, 2, 54, 38

2008:
5, 3, 16, 28, 39, 46, 10, 19, 32, 29

2009:
25, 10, 17, 8, 37, 19, 2, 42, 24, 22

2010:
13, 3, 1, 23, 12, 5, 38, 7, 34, 43

2011:
8, 11, 6, 1, 14, 18, 40, 3, 44, 22

2012:
1, 18, 11, 22, 4, 19, 2, 3, 38, 41

2013:
2, 32, 34, 3, 17, 39, 13, 38, 19, 9

That's 16 players out of the 10 years of drafts who were top 3 picks and top 10 careers out of those drafts 1st rounds (16/30 total picks). So it's basically a coin flip if you're going to draft top 3 and get someone in the top 10 most valuable players from that class. If we expand the criteria to top 5 picks and focus in on getting "top 5 value", it becomes 15/50. You're actually almost as likely (12/50) to get a similarly valued player picking in the bottom third-to-half of the round.

And this doesn't even account for the fact that I'm not setting WAR thresholds, meaning that in many cases the guys getting into the top 10s listed above have had mediocre or disappointing careers. Conisder 2009, the Mike Trout draft. Those 10 players I listed above are:

Trout, Strasburg, AJ Pollock, Mike Leake, James Paxton (in his original unsigned spot with the Blue Jays), Shelby Miller, Dustin Ackley, Garret Richards, Randal Grichuk, and Kyle Gibson

That's not an entirely reassuring list, especially once you get past Trout and Strasburg. And it includes Ackley and Gibson, who are by most measures considered busts.

 

[nilan30]

The Maile man delivers another walk off haha