Speculation: 2018 RFA compensation list released (offer sheets)

[Mighty Makar]

Stone’s coming to Colorado this summer

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Stone’s coming to Colorado this summer

Y'all should marry Ottawa since you love screwing them so much.

 

[BatVader]

Y'all should marry Ottawa since you love screwing them so much.

Sens are a very good first date..... “VERY GOOD”

 

[Brodeur]

It's too bad GM's don't have the stones to use offersheets. They've consistently let other teams off the hook with their RFA's. Still interesting to discuss guys and teams that should be targeted.

At least to me, it's not so much a lack of "stones" but rather that it's futile in most cases. A lot of things have to line up in order for an offer sheet to work:

1) Does the player even want to sign it? Circa summer 2006, the Devils were in cap hell and a few teams approached Brian Gionta. But he was willing to wait and let the Devils sort out their problems. I can only imagine that behind the scenes that players/agents use the offers as leverage.

2) Does the team have its original picks to extend the offer. There are already a handful of 2nds/3rd in 2019 that were traded. So teams couldn't even extend an offer in some compensation ranges.

3) Does the original team not have cap space/motivation to match? This tends to be what makes offer sheets futile.

4) Does the offer sheet disrupt your own internal salary structure? As much as we like to think athletes don't care about what their teammates make, we've heard stories of locker room turmoil. The Sabres spent big on Ville Leino and Christian Ehrhoff one summer. One Sabre later admitted that the locker room kinda turned sour since some guys felt alienated since the team didn't pay them despite years of service but lavished on some other guys.

As much as we think being GM boils down to making signings/trades/draft picks, a lot of it ends up dealing with egos.

------------

And it's certainly less sexy, but why not just make a trade rather than offer sheet?

Is there some extra satisfaction in signing an offer sheet, like you outsmarted somebody? Most of the offer sheets which would hypothetically work would usually end up overpaying the player.

 

[Tatar Shots]

Someone in the Atlantic who is able to put together a serious offer sheet should be targeting Detriot... they are in cap trouble, and have a lot of enticing RFA's (sorry Wing's fans)

Larkin or Mantha specifically. Detroit would have a difficult dilemma presented if either player got an offer sheet for $5-6 mil per (1st & 3rd rd pick compensation)
Detroit has so many picks already and would likely want to match... but they're in cap trouble regardless, and being forced to match that would present a lot more headaches for them, which should be a goal of every team in the Atlantic/Eastern Conference especially.

Detroit has a ton of cap space and would be thrilled to sign Larkin at that price point. Without the cap going up, Detroit has close to 25 million in space with 9 spots to fill.

 

[I Like Eich]

Detroit will have over $25M in cap space soooo.... How exactly are they at risk of not being able to match an offer sheet?

Not that they wouldn't be able to match, but would be put in a worse cap-bind long-term than they already are if they are forced to add another 1 or 2 $5-6m salary long term onto the books.

They are committed to paying 6F, 6D, + 1G a combined $51 mil+ in cap $ next year, so they still have 6-8 roster slots at least to fill and a little less than $30 mil-ish to do it based off my quick and terrible mental math. Plenty of $.

But they need to bridge guys like Larkin or Mantha imo to avoid cap problems down the road, which are coming soon... so much $ tied up in guys who are veterans on the decline, overpaid, and have NTC or NMC to boot (for example; why the heck does the entire D corp have a NTC?)

If Larkin or Mantha signed a big offer sheet, DET would almost definitely match, but the idea is to create problems for your opponent, which a signed offer sheet would. Don't let them get away with signing these 2 to cheap bridge deals is the point I'm trying to make.

It's what infuriated me so much about the Kucherov situation... TB was in a vulnerable cap situation with the pending Stamkos signing/UFA saga, and somehow managed to escape that offseason signing Kuch to a $4.76m per/3 yr deal. Why any team who could afford to (and it made sense to) in the Eastern Conference didn't send him an offer sheet for $7-8m per long term, to at least force TB to sign him for that, is beyond me.

 

[I Like Eich]

Detroit has a ton of cap space and would be thrilled to sign Larkin at that price point. Without the cap going up, Detroit has close to 25 million in space with 9 spots to fill.

I'm not sure they'd be thrilled about having to pay either Larkin or Mantha $5-6 mil per when they will most likely sign both to much cheaper bridge deals for about half that price.

 

[Tatar Shots]

I'm not sure they'd be thrilled about having to pay either Larkin or Mantha $5-6 mil per when they will most likely sign both to much cheaper bridge deals for about half that price.

Larkin will get 6 million minimum. Mantha probably comes in somewhere between 4-5 million long term. Detroit has a ton of cap space and these are the only two players that need to be paid for the foreseeable future. They have zero reason to bridge either player.

 

[I Like Eich]

Larkin will get 6 million minimum. Mantha probably comes in somewhere between 4-5 million long term. Detroit has a ton of cap space and these are the only two players that need to be paid for the foreseeable future. They have zero reason to bridge either player.

I see a lot of reasons to bridge both... I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I think Minnesota matches up to $6M for either Zucker or Dumba. Any teams willing to go over that?

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Remember folks, the teams can give out an offer sheet, but the players still have to sign them. Buffalo COULD offer Hellebuyck a contract like that, but does he want to leave a contender like Winnipeg for a team like Buffalo?

There's also club elected arbitration, which makes a player ineligible for an offer sheet. It would not be surprising to see Vegas elect for it on William Karlsson, Ottawa on Mark Stone, etc. These would be precautionary measures, and the teams could still negotiate longer term deals with the players prior to going to arbitration.

The last time I recall a team using it to thwart a possible offer sheet was Colorado with Ryan O'Reilly. Teams can file in June so it prevents any July 1st offer sheets.

 

[Hasbro]

The offer sheet checklist:

• Do you need or want the player?
• Is there a similar player available as a UFA available to you?
• Is there a similar player that would take less trade/contract value on the trade market?
• Is the player worth the money + compensation you would have to give up?
• Can you just trade for this RFA anyway?
• Will his current team just match?
• Will he actually sign the Offer sheet?

 

[Holden Caulfield]

I'm surprised teams don't use these more often in the more minor cases. A guy like Marko Dano would be an interesting target of a team. The Jets are going to be right up against the cap, would they really want to pay 1.3 million to a guy who was a press box guy for them? He has shown to score consistently at a 3rd line rate, with spikes as high as a 1st line rate suggesting potential.

 

[I Like Eich]

I think Minnesota matches up to $6M for either Zucker or Dumba. Any teams willing to go over that?

I think Dumba is potentially worth the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd compensation level ($6.08-$8.1m per) depending on the team's situation that is offering, but that's just me. It would be a very bold move, only be a small handful of teams at most that it would make sense for. But just strictly in terms of cap $, i think Dumba is well-worth >$6m long-term, he is the new-age defenseman that everyone is looking for

 

[SML2]

Would Winnipeg be able to match a 7x7 offersheet on Trouba? Some playoff teams who like him might not mind acquiring him for two 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd.

I don't know if they would match it knowing they have to break open the vault for Laine the following year. I think 7x7 might be low in this case. If you're going to burn your bridges, you have to make sure you get your guy on the other side. I suppose they just give him Enstrom's money and let him walk unless you go higher on the dollar figure .

 

[Chainshot]

It's too bad GM's don't have the stones to use offersheets. They've consistently let other teams off the hook with their RFA's. Still interesting to discuss guys and teams that should be targeted.

There’s a word for it: collusion.

 

[is the answer jesus]

At least to me, it's not so much a lack of "stones" but rather that it's futile in most cases. A lot of things have to line up in order for an offer sheet to work:

1) Does the player even want to sign it? Circa summer 2006, the Devils were in cap hell and a few teams approached Brian Gionta. But he was willing to wait and let the Devils sort out their problems. I can only imagine that behind the scenes that players/agents use the offers as leverage.

2) Does the team have its original picks to extend the offer. There are already a handful of 2nds/3rd in 2019 that were traded. So teams couldn't even extend an offer in some compensation ranges.

3) Does the original team not have cap space/motivation to match? This tends to be what makes offer sheets futile.

4) Does the offer sheet disrupt your own internal salary structure? As much as we like to think athletes don't care about what their teammates make, we've heard stories of locker room turmoil. The Sabres spent big on Ville Leino and Christian Ehrhoff one summer. One Sabre later admitted that the locker room kinda turned sour since some guys felt alienated since the team didn't pay them despite years of service but lavished on some other guys.

As much as we think being GM boils down to making signings/trades/draft picks, a lot of it ends up dealing with egos.

------------

And it's certainly less sexy, but why not just make a trade rather than offer sheet?

Is there some extra satisfaction in signing an offer sheet, like you outsmarted somebody? Most of the offer sheets which would hypothetically work would usually end up overpaying the player.

1) Is always an issue with offersheets. The player has to want to at the very least play the bad guy and use the offersheet for leverage against their own team or want off of their current team. Either way it casts them in a negative light.
2) Can be an issue at least for a lot of competitive teams who use their draft picks for rentals. Though there are still a lot of teams who retain enough picks to make offersheeting commonplace even if it's as simple as a 2nd round comp offersheet.
3) These teams that don't have the cap to match should be the main target for offersheets. If you can't manage your cap you should have to make tough decisions with these players (which does happen occasionally, but nowhere near as much as it should/would if teams were actually using offersheets).
4) I guess could be an issue, but I'd like players in my locker room to understand I'm trying to make my organization more competitive and if they deserve more money and are worth it, I'll give it to them when their time comes up. The Sabres example stemmed from overpaying UFA's. If players take issue with what other players get on the open market I don't know what to tell them other then if they want, they'll get their opportunity at UFA and big money deals if that's what they're most concerned with.
In most cases trading should be the preferred route, problem being teams rarely have any motivation to move good young players, but if offersheets were a viable threat it would A) Make more teams willing to listen on these players B) Make teams more cautious when making stupid long-term investments in UFA's that could cause them to lose good young players down the line.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

For example, Andreas Athanasiou would be an interesting pick for someone. Would the Wings take a 2nd?

If Athanasiou takes Detroit to salary arbitration, Then he can't be offer sheeted and that's his plan same with Trouba and the Jets.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Someone in the Atlantic who is able to put together a serious offer sheet should be targeting Detriot... they are in cap trouble, and have a lot of enticing RFA's (sorry Wing's fans)

Larkin or Mantha specifically. Detroit would have a difficult dilemma presented if either player got an offer sheet for $5-6 mil per (1st & 3rd rd pick compensation)
Detroit has so many picks already and would likely want to match... but they're in cap trouble regardless, and being forced to match that would present a lot more headaches for them, which should be a goal of every team in the Atlantic/Eastern Conference especially.

But I expect absolutely nothing to happen. Two years in a row, it could not have been more obvious which players should be getting flooded with offer-sheets to put their teams in a difficult position whether to match or not, yet neither did (or at least neither signed them if they were in-fact sent offers) and their teams skated away with great deals. I'm talking about Kucherov and Pastrnak here.

It's almost as if there is a silent agreement between owners/GM's not to offer sheet each-other, because nobody can deny there should be more than there are. I get my hopes up every year that someone will have the stones to send a smart offer sheet out there, but it never happens.

How could everyone let Tampa get away with keeping Kucherov for $4.76m per?!? Blows my mind. /rant

Dude do you even pay attention to facts? Look up CapFriendly Detroit is hardly in cap trouble, We've $18,100,000 right now on 14 players cap goes to $80 million that's another $5 million plus Franzen on LTIR clears another $4 million since Holland like to spend up to the cap. Detroit is hardly in cap trouble Detroit could easily have $27 million to $30 million to spend this summer. With Larkin, Mantha, AA, Bertuzzi, Possibly Frk sign a backup Detroit isn't in cap trouble try and offer sheet our players that there will be big time paybacks.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I'm not sure they'd be thrilled about having to pay either Larkin or Mantha $5-6 mil per when they will most likely sign both to much cheaper bridge deals for about half that price.

Larkin isn't getting a bridge deal? Both Holland and Larkin want a long term deal Larkin will get either 7x6 or 8x6 and Mantha probably 2x4.5 or maybe slightly higher. So how is Detroit in cap trouble?

 

[SML2]

I've been thinking this through and the bottom line is, don't match on anything other than high level guys. If you can't replace him, match. But any guy who is a mid sixer or less or not a first pair Dman, take the picks. He's already shown his colors by signing the offer sheet. He's a dented can at that point. Take what you can get for him and move on.

 

[Advanced stats]

I wish Toronto had the guts to break the bank and shoot for Dumba or Trouba or someone.
1st +2nd +3rd is fairish value.

The risk of retaliation is a big one though..

 

[Nikolai Coolman]

I wish Toronto had the guts to break the bank and shoot for Dumba or Trouba or someone.
1st +2nd +3rd is fairish value.

The risk of retaliation is a big one though..

Can you imagine Dubas giving out an offer sheet not two months into his GM career?

 

[SML2]

Can you imagine Dubas giving out an offer sheet not two months into his GM career?

May as well shoot first. I can't imagine someone doesn't take a shot at Matthews, Nylander, or Marner even if it's just to drive the price up. Matthews is unrealistic because they would certainly match and I doubt he signs it no matter what. I could see someone targeting the other two though.

 

[Advanced stats]

Can you imagine Dubas giving out an offer sheet not two months into his GM career?

No not at all, but I already acknowledged that it's not likely too happen