GDT: 2018 Playoffs and Bracket Challenge

[Kipper933]

My bracket has the Ducks winning the cup..

 

[FlamerForLife]

Vegas completes the sweep and are the 1st team to advance to round 2.

 

[CamPopplestone]

Really happy for Fleury

 

[Anglesmith]

My retrospective unease with the expansion process continues to grow.

 

[CamPopplestone]

Meh. I'm ok with it. If they're paying 500 million dollars they should have some quality plus all everyone was talking about before the season was how McPhee did horrible. Now that they're doing so well, everyone is going back and saying the expansion is too generous.

Plus they have an incredibly small prospect cupboard, so if any of their impact guys like Perron or Neal walk for the big paydays, they don't have NHL ready talent to plug into their place. I'm curious to see where they are in say two or three seasons time.

 

[Mr Snrub]

Vegas is going to win the Stanley Cup every year for the next 1,000 years.

 

[Anglesmith]

Meh. I'm ok with it. If they're paying 500 million dollars they should have some quality plus all everyone was talking about before the season was how McPhee did horrible. Now that they're doing so well, everyone is going back and saying the expansion is too generous.

Plus they have an incredibly small prospect cupboard, so if any of their impact guys like Perron or Neal walk for the big paydays, they don't have NHL ready talent to plug into their place. I'm curious to see where they are in say two or three seasons time.

To the bolded, I don't have any problem with retrospective analysis like this. There is now actual evidence to say how good the talent was that they acquired, whereas before the season it was all just guesswork.

The issue I see is that I don't think the expansion process was calibrated to a salary cap era. I would say that their big advantage isn't that they got to pick one decent player from every team (and have multiple NHL GMs make hideously asinine decisions to let them have two such players). The mega-advantage is that they got to pick contracts. That's an advantage that hasn't ever really applied before in any previous expansions, and on top of that, they had the most favourable talent pool out of any previous expansion. In an era where teams can acquire assets by acquiring a player with a big contract, the ability to start with no bad contracts is worth multiple first-round picks.

And the results are clear now. The talent they got was sufficient not just to keep interest up in their home town, but to be a Stanley Cup contender instantly. You are correct that they have a small prospect cupboard given they've existed for one year, but they also have a favourable cap situation that gives them probably more flexibility to bring these guys back than any other organization.

It just makes me uneasy. It's like a poker tournament where everyone starts with the same number of chips, and then a few hours in you let someone join in, and give them that same starting number of chips.

 

[Kahvi]

I'm not gonna lie, I like seeing Vegas sweep Kings with Engelland playing +25 per night (2nd most on team and D)

 

[Ace Rimmer]

The issue I see is that I don't think the expansion process was calibrated to a salary cap era. I would say that their big advantage isn't that they got to pick one decent player from every team (and have multiple NHL GMs make hideously asinine decisions to let them have two such players). The mega-advantage is that they got to pick contracts. That's an advantage that hasn't ever really applied before in any previous expansions, and on top of that, they had the most favourable talent pool out of any previous expansion. In an era where teams can acquire assets by acquiring a player with a big contract, the ability to start with no bad contracts is worth multiple first-round picks.

But... it had to be done that way. Otherwise missing a season and a half to get a salary cap was for nothing.

Unquestionably they got advantages that no expansion team has before. Seattle (or whoever's next) will have those same advantages, albeit watered down.

Lot of guys on that team are having career years; and I have no idea if that's opportunity, luck, other intangibles, or just facing teams coming in unprepared and/or hungover (or worried about their moms).

You can't ignore luck as a factor either. Prior to this season, anyone who predicted William Karlsson could be a potential 40 goal scorer in the NHL is straight up lying IMO.

 

[Anglesmith]

But... it had to be done that way. Otherwise missing a season and a half to get a salary cap was for nothing.

Unquestionably they got advantages that no expansion team has before. Seattle (or whoever's next) will have those same advantages, albeit watered down.

Lot of guys on that team are having career years; and I have no idea if that's opportunity, luck, other intangibles, or just facing teams coming in unprepared and/or hungover (or worried about their moms).

You can't ignore luck as a factor either. Prior to this season, anyone who predicted William Karlsson could be a potential 40 goal scorer in the NHL is straight up lying IMO.

That doesn't make it luck, I don't think. When you're taking the 9th best player off each team (or whatever it was), there's a certain probability that you'll hit a home run with a couple of them if they have youth on their side.

But all I'm saying is that in retrospect, I think it would've been fair to downgrade the available talent a little bit. I guess that would've meant tweaking protection rules just a little bit.

I'm not blaming anyone or anything like that. It just feels like they made a mistake with significant repercussions, and as I watch it unfold it makes me uneasy. That's all.

I think Seattle will have it just a little worse than Vegas because I think NHL GMs will have learned a lot from this experience.

 

[Anglesmith]

Flames, Ducks and Kings all had the same number of playoff wins this season.

Of course, we have 4 games in hand.

 

[Unlimited Chequing]

Flames, Ducks and Kings all had the same number of playoff wins this season.

Of course, we have 4 games in hand.

Good Will Sedin

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Let's be honest, the advanced stats committee isn't surprised by the two SoCal teams that both got swept. LA and Anaheim were 16th and 22nd in CF% respectively. 18th and 22nd in FF% respectively. 18th and 22nd in SF% respectively. Unlike Minnesota and Colorado who at did well limiting quality chances (Minnesota one of the best teams in this category), LA and especially Anaheim were mep (Anaheim was flat out bad) in this category. They also got a ton of favourable bounces and calls go their ways this season. If Winnipeg and Nashville defeat their opposition in game 5, this will be the first time in a long time where advanced stats have truly dictated the game and it's about time, because we need some justice for actual objective analytics instead of biased eye test.​

 

[Anglesmith]

Let's be honest, the advanced stats committee isn't surprised by the two SoCal teams that both got swept. LA and Anaheim were 16th and 22nd in CF% respectively. 18th and 22nd in FF% respectively. 18th and 22nd in SF% respectively. Unlike Minnesota and Colorado who at did well limiting quality chances (Minnesota one of the best teams in this category), LA and especially Anaheim were mep (Anaheim was flat out bad) in this category. They also got a ton of favourable bounces and calls go their ways this season. If Winnipeg and Nashville defeat their opposition in game 5, this will be the first time in a long time where advanced stats have truly dictated the game and it's about time, because we need some justice for actual objective analytics instead of biased eye test.​

You're saying this after the Flames' season?

Also, for what its worth, this is a really bizarre stance to take. Objective analytics are just information. They don't say one thing or another; the people interpreting them are trying to convince one another of their meaning. There is bias regardless. There is no "justice." I'm not sure why anyone would "cheer" for analytics unless they make their money in that field- there is plenty of work to be done on it, after all.

The one thing about the eye test is that it has the potential to be perfect, even if it's unrealistic to expect it to be. A person can be very good at analyzing hockey. Pure advanced stats doesn't really have that potential in a game as chaotic as hockey, in my opinion, as there are always assumptions and simplifications that need to be made to characterize the infinite things that can happen in a game into finite categories.

 

[CamPopplestone]

I hate Boston but I hate Toronto more. I hope Boston finishes them off, then get taken out in the second round.

 

[Lunatik]

Flames, Ducks and Kings all had the same number of playoff wins this season.

Of course, we have 4 games in hand.

Good Will Sedin

You two are killing me here

 

[Mr Snrub]

This CBJ/WSH series has been great. Kinda pulling for Washington to finally put it together this year even if that means we miss an opportunity at Trotz

 

[Mobiandi]

This first round kinda sucks. Another one bites the dust with NJ out

 

[Anglesmith]

This CBJ/WSH series has been great. Kinda pulling for Washington to finally put it together this year even if that means we miss an opportunity at Trotz

I'm always happy to cheer for Ovy. But once again they're probably going to have to go through Pittsburgh, which is difficult.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Man I love Philly, and man do I love Couts, such a stud. Go Flyers!!

 

[Mobiandi]

The Flyers GDT has 2 1/2 pages of consecutive posts that curse out Gudas after the Pens tied it up

 

[CamPopplestone]

Guentzel with 4 straight goals

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

What a bunch of crap

 

[CamPopplestone]

I'm happy Penguins win.

 

[Anglesmith]

My bracket is in shambles.

Honestly, what I should do for these things (and I should've learned by now) is make a bracket, then switch all of the picks before submitting. I think I would have done better in the first round using that strategy ever since we started doing these things.

At least Boston (my Cup pick) is still in it.