2018-19 stats and underlying metrics thread

[Mud Turtle]

I asked Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler. They said that no such stat exists and that we shouldn’t waste our. time looking for one.

 

[Whileee]

Why does Perreault take so many penalties when players like Copp and Tanev don't?

 

[Whileee]

I'm still ticked at Perreault for his lack of discipline last night, especially because it's been a problem all season. He's by far the worst of Jets' forwards in terms of penalty differential (see below). Interesting to note that Lemieux was the best among Jets forwards in terms of penalty differential at even-strength.

 

[Daximus]

I'm still ticked at Perreault for his lack of discipline last night, especially because it's been a problem all season. He's by far the worst of Jets' forwards in terms of penalty differential (see below). Interesting to note that Lemieux was the best among Jets forwards in terms of penalty differential at even-strength.

View attachment 206243

Lemieux really changed his game for the better recently. He has the ability to get under guys skin. Sure his beaks are terrible sometimes but he does what it takes to draw penalties. And he was being smart enough not to get goaded into them himself.

 

[tbcwpg]

Was reading that the Jets Corsi with Buff and Morrissey is 51.1%, and 45.8% without. Is that a significant change? Seems large but I'm not savvy enough with these stats to say for sure

 

[WPGChief]

Replying in a more relevant thread...

Chief, I know you like to post player xgoals after each game. I was quite surprised when garrett said that xgoals only looks at shot quality and not actual finishing talent.

So, whether Schiefele shoots from a specific location versus Hendricks, it doesn’t matter. All factors being equal...well...besides actual finishing talent...would grant the same xgoals.

So, when you say Schiefele’s xgoals in a game is a certain number, isn’t that actually disengenous? He’s not a typical player.

Can you explain this to me?

There's a couple of things to this. I'll let Manny (Corsica) explain based on his old blog post (though I think the model has since been updated but the general comments here still hold true - unfortunately no future work will be done as of now as he has since (probably though not confirmed) retired from hockey analytics):

xG stats are by-products of assigning goal expectancy to shots. In my mind, this ability to assess shot quality is most important, though supplying information with which to devise better evaluative metrics is a welcome benefit. The model is similar in nature to that of @DTMAboutHeart, with some important distinctions. The most important difference is his inclusion of regressed shooting talent. I chose to exclude shooter talent not because it isn’t an important factor, but rather because I fear players may unfairly benefit or suffer from their linemates’ aptitude.

[...]

This idea of projecting future outcomes is of great importance in analyses relating to hockey and indeed a great number of fields. In its present condition, 5v5 xGF% is not a better predictor of future 5v5 GF% than CF% at the player level. Regular skaters’ 5v5 xGF% in one >400 TOI season did not yield a higher correlation with the next season’s 5v5 GF% than the same test performed with CF%.12 The same variance observed in early shot quality analyses prevents on-ice xG from predicting real goals, or itself for that matter, in any practical way. Though descriptive of shot quality, the xG model has not yet shown to be appreciably predictive of future shot quality or goals at the on-ice level.

xG does, however, have predictive value at the individual skater level. 5v5 ixG60 is a better predictor of future 5v5 G60 than G60 itself (0.152 for forwards and 0.128 for defence vs. 0.140 and 0.076 respectively).

DTM's model:

The model also takes into consideration shooter talent, which we know varies significantly from player to player. Accounting for shooting talent makes intuitive sense, as we expect that shots attempted by Brad Marchand on average have a higher likelihood of resulting in goals than shots taken by, say, Tanner Glass. To this end, a “Shot Multiplier”*** was developed to approximate a player’s effect on each shot’s probability of resulting in a goal.

So, Corsica's is definitely descriptive, but DTM's is provably more predictive. Unfortunately, DTM - aka Dawson Sprigings - has since been hired under the Kroenke Sports banner and as such no future work has been done on his models since it was originally created. That being said, Corsica's is still a better predictor than GF% (your goal differential), more at the individual level than at the team level but still better.

But anyways, back to your point - I think I can prove this in a viz form, but I'll describe after. Here's last season between Scheifele and Hendricks:

I added some stats from Corsica, and admittedly it doesn't look like much at first glance in terms of just the stats. But consider: Scheifele is still outperforming Hendricks, with more minutes, against tougher competition, playing with more skilled linemates, etc. - eventually it comes out to a difference in that, sure, at 5v5 Hendricks had half the goals of Scheifele (5 of 10), but Scheifele had triple the amount of assists (8 to 24). Looking at CA and xGA is better for Scheifele again, all factors considered.

I think you make a pretty flawed assumption. Is Hendricks creating the same plays of Scheifele to enter the zone, create separation, and get a clean shot from the slot? Is Hendricks going to pass to the open forward in the slot as much as Scheifele would? That's at least one of the assumptions that Manny makes, in that shooter talent doesn't necessarily need to be accounted for because players better players will naturally shoot more from better scoring areas. I don't think it's 100% true, but there's still truth to it. Eric Tulsky's argument for including shooter talent nearly 6 years ago still rings true, however:

Step 1: Include shooting talent too. Shot type and location is easier to pull from the scoresheet than shooting skill, so it's what most people focus on. But shooting talent is nearly as large a factor in a player's shooting percentage as shot location is, and we might expect shot location to be an even smaller factor for on-ice shooting percentage. (The guy who plays in front of the net will have a lot of shots from in close, but if every line has one of those guys, we won't necessarily see a difference between lines in average shot distance the way we do for individuals.) So do the extra work to figure out not just what type of shots a player takes, but also whether he scores on more of those shots than the average player.

More accurate data (i.e. venue biases) and more data in general (i.e. where is the shooter aiming; what factors led into the shooter taking the shot (as in, is it a one-timer off a 'royal road' pass); is there traffic in front of the net; etc.) will inevitably lead to better models, but the models we have today are still better. Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.

 

[ps241]

Why does Perreault take so many penalties when players like Copp and Tanev don't?

View attachment 206241

He reaches with his stick too much and plays on the edge all the time. He has to know when to let it go on a play.

 

[JetsFan815]

Jets 5v5 record last season post trade deadline vs this season post trade deadline:

17-18:

CF%: 53.96
SCF%: 53.41
HDCF%: 51.19
GF%: 55.80

18-19:

CF%: 45.92
SCF%: 46.62
HDCF%: 44.89
GF%: 52.21

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Jets 5v5 record last season post trade deadline vs this season post trade deadline:

17-18:

CF%: 53.96
SCF%: 53.41
HDCF%: 51.19
GF%: 55.80

18-19:

CF%: 45.92
SCF%: 46.62
HDCF%: 44.89
GF%: 52.21

We shouldn't have been buyers at the deadline. I was lobbying to stand pat.

We are all in now, so must pray. Anyone know voodoo?

 

[JetsFan815]

I was going through some Jets players on hockeyviz and have more appreciation for Stastny and Little. If you look at the shot rate graphs for Schefiele and Hayes, it's crazy how Shots For literally drop off a cliff as soon as Laine joins their lines:

For Scheifele as soon as Laine's blue pops up on the first graph below as Scheifele's linemate, the "Shots For" almost immediately drops through a cliff in the 3rd graph by like 16 per minute (just eyeballing) while "Shots Against" stay constant and once blue disappears on the linemate graph, the "Shots For" graph shows a recovery.

Scheifele WPG 1819 Overview

Sample size is smaller with Hayes but the same trend repeats with Patrick's yellow popping up followed by a crash in "Shots For".

Hayes WPG 1819 Overview

I have no idea how Stastny managed to get Laine over 50% last season, either Stastny is that good or Laine is that much worse this season. An argument can be made that the Jets fans (and management?) have been too harsh on Little as a Center looking at how much Scheifele and now Hayes are struggling with Laine on their line. It is becoming clear that Laine is an extremely hard player to play with and look good (generate offensive zone time).

 

[ps241]

I was going through some Jets players on hockeyviz and have more appreciation for Stastny and Little. If you look at the shot rate graphs for Schefiele and Hayes, it's crazy how Shots For literally drop off a cliff as soon as Laine joins their lines:

For Scheifele as soon as Laine's blue pops up on the first graph below as Scheifele's linemate, the "Shots For" almost immediately drops through a cliff in the 3rd graph by like 16 per minute (just eyeballing) while "Shots Against" stay constant and once blue disappears on the linemate graph, the "Shots For" graph shows a recovery.

Scheifele WPG 1819 Overview

Sample size is smaller with Hayes but the same trend repeats with Patrick's yellow popping up followed by a crash in "Shots For".

Hayes WPG 1819 Overview

I have no idea how Stastny managed to get Laine over 50% last season, either Stastny is that good or Laine is that much worse this season. An argument can be made that the Jets fans (and management?) have been too harsh on Little as a Center looking at how much Scheifele and now Hayes are struggling with Laine on their line. It is becoming clear that Laine is an extremely hard player to play with and look good (generate offensive zone time).

This matches my eye test the vast majority of time too. The narrative has been debated to death but Pate’s puck security sucks in all three zones. He is one of many key players who is having a really dissapointing season.

 

[Whileee]

This matches my eye test the vast majority of time too. The narrative has been debated to death but Pate’s puck security sucks in all three zones. He is one of many key players who is having a really dissapointing season.

Yup. Laine really needs to develop further. The banter about his off-season training was mainly in jest, but you have to wonder whether he needs to re-think how he approaches the off-season so that he can reach his potential. He seems to have gotten slower without getting much stronger along the boards. Meanwhile his hands / shot seem less good than when he arrived. If Laine doesn't reverse course and get to the level of an elite scorer my projection for the Jets going forward will dip considerably.

 

[LowLefty]

Yup. Laine really needs to develop further. The banter about his off-season training was mainly in jest, but you have to wonder whether he needs to re-think how he approaches the off-season so that he can reach his potential. He seems to have gotten slower without getting much stronger along the boards. Meanwhile his hands / shot seem less good than when he arrived. If Laine doesn't reverse course and get to the level of an elite scorer my projection for the Jets going forward will dip considerably.

I find it interesting that most appear to think he has a huge upside.
I'm in the camp that feels his game is not regressing - it's more to do with teams / players figuring out how to knock him off his game.

If the assumption is that he is a highly skilled hockey player that just needs more time, then lets wait and see (and hopefully not pay him based on "wait and see")
However, if his current play is at a level that is in line with his skill, we then need to stop assuming he will develop out of this to an elite level.

He appears slower because apposing players are on him now - he isn't allowed any room and he's essentially shut down when he's rushed.

This isn't a Laine thread but he has a lot to do with over all line performance at this point - it's unfortunate and will need to be first realized before it can be addressed.

 

[ps241]

Yup. Laine really needs to develop further. The banter about his off-season training was mainly in jest, but you have to wonder whether he needs to re-think how he approaches the off-season so that he can reach his potential. He seems to have gotten slower without getting much stronger along the boards. Meanwhile his hands / shot seem less good than when he arrived. If Laine doesn't reverse course and get to the level of an elite scorer my projection for the Jets going forward will dip considerably.

I am mindful of his age and development is never linear but he is our lottery ticket and if he doesn’t make that jump to our top player and a line driver in the next two seasons I don’t see us having the core to win a cup. It doesn’t all fall on his shoulders but he needs to be the best of the new core as the old guard sunset.

 

[pucka lucka]

I am mindful of his age and development is never linear but he is our lottery ticket and if he doesn’t make that jump to our top player and a line driver in the next two seasons I don’t see us having the core to win a cup. It doesn’t all fall on his shoulders but he needs to be the best of the new core as the old guard sunset.

There is a definite large coaching contribution to Laine's play. Watch where he goes on the ice now. He backs his ass into the opposing goalie like he's Dave Andreychuk and hangs out on the half boards waiting to lose a inconsequential puck battle. He used to skate into the zone with the puck a lot. Now, that never happens. Laine didn't forget how to play hockey. I'm afraid our coaching staff turned a flawed superstar into a shitty 4th liner. I f***ing hate Paul Maurice.

 

[ps241]

There is a definite large coaching contribution to Laine's play. Watch where he goes on the ice now. He backs his ass into the opposing goalie like he's Dave Andreychuk and hangs out on the half boards waiting to lose a inconsequential puck battle. He used to skate into the zone with the puck a lot. Now, that never happens. Laine didn't forget how to play hockey. I'm afraid our coaching staff turned a flawed superstar into a ****ty 4th liner. I ****ing hate Paul Maurice.

Yea I don’t like how he’s been handled but if I had a dime for every time he lost the puck over dangling trying to beat defenders 1v3 I would be rich. It’s just one of his many Puck security issues. I don’t know what the answer is because he can’t protect the puck. Coaching needs to be part of the solution but most of this falls on Laine......stars need to grow, push through it, and find a way.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

I find it interesting that most appear to think he has a huge upside.
I'm in the camp that feels his game is not regressing - it's more to do with teams / players figuring out how to knock him off his game.

If the assumption is that he is a highly skilled hockey player that just needs more time, then lets wait and see (and hopefully not pay him based on "wait and see")
However, if his current play is at a level that is in line with his skill, we then need to stop assuming he will develop out of this to an elite level.

He appears slower because apposing players are on him now - he isn't allowed any room and he's essentially shut down when he's rushed.

This isn't a Laine thread but he has a lot to do with over all line performance at this point - it's unfortunate and will need to be first realized before it can be addressed.

I don't agree with this at all. It doesn't take 2 and a half seasons for teams to adapt to a player, they would have known to play him tight within 20 games of the first season.

There is something different with Laine's play and it is very evident watching him. He lacks confidence, he lacks any type of ability to win puck battles, he struggles to get the puck out of his own end and he is turning pucks over constantly when he is under pressure. This leads to little to no extended zone time and terrible metrics.

I don't know what is going on with him but we can't sign him long term imo. There is way too much uncertainty.

This is slightly off topic though it does affect his underlying metrics haha.

 

[pucka lucka]

Yea I don’t like how he’s been handled but if I had a dime for every time he lost the puck over dangling trying to beat defenders 1v3 I would be rich. It’s just one of his many Puck security issues. I don’t know what the answer is because he can’t protect the puck. Coaching needs to be part of the solution but most of this falls on Laine......stars need to grow, push through it, and find a way.

I don't disagree that he has some big holes. I referred to him as flawed for that reason. He doesn't even shoot anymore? Wtf is going on there? Something weird is happening with this team.

 

[ps241]

I don't disagree that he has some big holes. I referred to him as flawed for that reason. He doesn't even shoot anymore? Wtf is going on there? Something weird is happening with this team.

Laine seems to have lost his swagger and that happens. Maybe he catches fire in the playoffs I have stopped trying to predict when goal scorers get hot and cold.

 

[Board Bard]

Disconcerting Travis Yost interview yesterday on 1290. He says a team's underlying stats for the last 25 games of the season are more predictive of playoff performance than the season as a whole. If that pans out for the Jets, people will be wondering who let the Senators into the playoffs.

 

[pucka lucka]

Disconcerting Travis Yost interview yesterday on 1290. He says a team's underlying stats for the last 25 games of the season are more predictive of playoff performance than the season as a whole. If that pans out for the Jets, people will be wondering who let the Senators into the playoffs.

They beat us too...

 

[LowLefty]

I don't agree with this at all. It doesn't take 2 and a half seasons for teams to adapt to a player, they would have known to play him tight within 20 games of the first season.

There is something different with Laine's play and it is very evident watching him. He lacks confidence, he lacks any type of ability to win puck battles, he struggles to get the puck out of his own end and he is turning pucks over constantly when he is under pressure. This leads to little to no extended zone time and terrible metrics.

I don't know what is going on with him but we can't sign him long term imo. There is way too much uncertainty.

This is slightly off topic though it does affect his underlying metrics haha.

It is off topic -
Reasons aside, it appears we agree on the results

 

[Kaako Kappo]

One of these things is not like the others

Ehlers
Connor
Scheifele
Laine
Wheeler
Little

 

[Board Bard]

One of these things is not like the others

Ehlers
Connor
Scheifele
Laine
Wheeler
Little

Poor guy. Like a patch of healthy skin surrounded by a virulent rash.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Poor guy. Like a patch of healthy skin surrounded by a virulent rash.

It's actually incredible. How can Ehlers look so much better here? This is what Bergeron's shot map looks like for comparison: