Prospect Info: 2018-19 Prospects Thread III (CHL, NCAA, Junior A, Europe)

[Canadian Game]

I think to a certain extent you took offense to my write up on Saigeon, perhaps due to a connection, when in fact I wouldn't disagree with much that you said except for the skating. And much of what I wrote about his time in Oshawa, you agreed with and mentioned above.

I didn't really touch on his time in Hamilton and I would agree that the article does lack some context. But in reality, I'm writing about every NHL drafted prospect in the OHL this summer (for both my site and for McKeens) and words will be limited. So I'm just not going to go as in depth as you did above (which was a very good description).

But in Oshawa, I did see a different player. Be it because the coaching staff asked him to take on a bit of a different role. Be it because of a lack of chemistry. Be it because of being utilized differently with the man advantage. But he wasn't as effective offensively with the Generals and I do feel that he wasn't as aggressive away from the puck as he had been during his tenure with the Bulldogs. Was he soft? Absolutely not. But he wasn't quite the puck hound and physically abrasive player that he was in Hamilton.

As for his skating, we'll have to agree to disagree on that one. It's why he was not drafted until his final year of eligibility. However, his skating definitely has improved a ton over his OHL career and it's why he finally was drafted, on top of his breakout as a goal scorer and his performance in the playoffs for Hamilton during their Championship run. But he's still just an average skater for an OHL player. Not below average. But he isn't extremely powerful in this regard. And I know I am not alone in this opinion among the scouting community. Unfortunately, if his skating is nor a strength, or a weakness at the OHL level, it means it will need to be improved for the pro level where the game is just that much faster. A guy like Michael Dal Colle is a perfect example here (among many, many others). As an OHL player, he was a standout. But his skating ability was average. Transitioning to pro, there were some difficulties for him in terms of pace (although some other things also have held him back). In the AHL, there aren't many poor skaters, especially among defenders. Where as in the OHL, that's obviously not the case.

Anyway, apologies if I struck a nerve here. All the best to Saigeon and hopefully he convinces Colorado to give him an ELC with a strong AHL performance this season.

No offence taken. I just thought the article had a very negative tone towards his season, when I didn't see it that way at all. Although I live almost 3 hours away in Belleville, I have continued to follow the organization since the Belleville Bulls moved to Hamilton, and have followed the new guys since as well. I've followed and written about Mackenzie Entwistle, Arthur, Kaliyev, and Matt Strome to an extent as well. I also followed guys like Maurizio Colella and Jack Hanley after they were traded too. Overall I'm a Bulls/Bulldogs fan. When Saigeon was traded to Oshawa, it cut my drive in half for those games, while Entwistle went to the western conference (Guelph), and Hamilton was in the tail end of a rebuilding year. My trips to Oshawa increased, and I traveled to every game in Kingston and Peterborough for all games versus Hamilton, Oshawa, and Guelph to follow said players. Meanwhile, I'm a Belleville Senators (AHL) season ticket holder. I just love watching junior hockey and seeing players develop over time.

That's fine if we disagree on skating. If it's why he wasn't drafted previously, that's news to me. The speculation about why he was drafted later as an overage has varied but the overall thought people have had is that he must not be that good since he was drafted in the 5th round as a overage. I provided much detail about his OHL path leading up to his draft in the Saigeon thread in the HF Avalanche forum: Prospect Info: - Brandon Saigeon C (2018 140th overall) . I mostly attribute it to being because of the season ending broken arm in year two, right when he was noticeably breaking out, and how a new coach handled him for the first half of year 3. If anything, the one constructive piece of criticism I've heard most, is that he needs to shoot more rather than opting to pass. While his shot totals aren't low by any means, I think he wants to be a team player and not come across as selfish. That's part of his character. But utilizing his shoot more is probably something he will need to work on.

This coming season with the Colorado Eagles will be interesting. We will certainly be following and streaming online.

 

[Canadian Game]

Thanks for the details @Brock @Canadian Game

Since you both have weighed in, I’m curious if either of you think Saigeon gained anything by returning for his overage year? I’m of the mind the Avs were just doing contract manipulation but just curious on your take.

No worries, I'm happy to post. I don't think the overage year hurt him, since he was still playing with quality guys on his line in Hamilton (Matt Strome and Arthur Kaliyev), which stayed consistent until he was traded. Oshawa had better depth, which also provided more playoff experience. I think the new team and atmosphere may have helped him because he had to integrate and adapt to a new club and system after being with the same organization for 4 years. I'm only speculating, but this might make the transition to Colorado a bit easier. Overall though, I think he was ready for the AHL after 2018-19 and I was surprised that Colorado didn't sign him for this past season after just drafting him as an overage. I think you're bang on with Avs contracts, and they probably signed 1 too many to fit him in for the Eagles last season.

 

[cgf]

The only reason to play games with his contract would've been because they weren't sure about devoting an ELC to him. We were comfortably under the 50 contract mark and the Eagles forward core wasn't some insurmountable behemoth that it was impossible to break into. So if they were confident in Saigeon being worth an ELC, there wasn't really a reason not to sign him to one; either last summer or this one.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Other 20 year olds from the CHL have to get signed or lose their rights. Getting drafted at 20 worked against Saigeon as it gave the Avs rights for two years from that point forward. I feel like it has less to do with him and more about milking their advantage. I bet he already has an ELC signed and waiting in the March 1 drawer.

 

[Patagonia]

NHL Network Prospect Pipeline Aug 9, 2019
Colorado discussed at 22:06 Mins.

 

[cgf]

Other 20 year olds from the CHL have to get signed or lose their rights. Getting drafted at 20 worked against Saigeon as it gave the Avs rights for two years from that point forward. I feel like it has less to do with him and more about milking their advantage. I bet he already has an ELC signed and waiting in the March 1 drawer.

Fair point. May well just be the avs doing it because they had the option, but again I feel like that says something about the organization's expectations for him since they've shown to have little hesitation with committing to their favorites. Not that not being one of this org's favorites is a death sentence.

 

[UncleRisto]

Kärpät goalie coach says he believes Annunen can share the net with Patrik Rybar, who played for Grand Rapids last season. So there's something to keep an eye on.

 

[chet1926]

Fair point. May well just be the avs doing it because they had the option, but again I feel like that says something about the organization's expectations for him since they've shown to have little hesitation with committing to their favorites. Not that not being one of this org's favorites is a death sentence.

I'm not sure this anything to do with Saigeon and his abilities. It has everything to do with the Avs using a bit if a loophole to their advantage. You need be taking advantage of situations when they are presented. He'll get his ELC in March. And he'll have the same opportunity to make the Avs as any other later round draft pick.

 

[henchman21]

I'm sure Saigeon will get his ELC in March, but what exactly are the Avs gaining by 'playing games' with his contract?

They have 43 contracts with 1 RFA remaining, so plenty of contract space. His ELC will be aged at 22 if he signs it in March, so it will be a 2 year deal (IE they don't get an extra year by waiting). It doesn't hit expansion radar. The only thing I can come up with is it gives them more evaluation time on Saigeon. By all means, if there is something I missed, point it out... but I only see one advantage to waiting and that is more evaluation. I know we like to hash things out over and over again, but this really seems simple. The Avs have been burned in their scouting and transition of players before (JCB, Nantel, Anderson, Bourke, etc) and they get a chance to evaluate at different levels before committing. Why not take that especially if you are unsure on the player?

 

[cgf]

I'm sure Saigeon will get his ELC in March, but what exactly are the Avs gaining by 'playing games' with his contract?

They have 43 contracts with 1 RFA remaining, so plenty of contract space. His ELC will be aged at 22 if he signs it in March, so it will be a 2 year deal (IE they don't get an extra year by waiting). It doesn't hit expansion radar. The only thing I can come up with is it gives them more evaluation time on Saigeon. By all means, if there is something I missed, point it out... but I only see one advantage to waiting and that is more evaluation. I know we like to hash things out over and over again, but this really seems simple. The Avs have been burned in their scouting and transition of players before (JCB, Nantel, Anderson, Bourke, etc) and they get a chance to evaluate at different levels before committing. Why not take that especially if you are unsure on the player?

This is what I was getting at and if that is the case, yay! I'm always happy to see the organization learning from its mistakes...as long as it doesn't over-correct...and their rush to throw out ELCs to C-prospects was certainly something I'm happy to see they've learned from. I suspect this lesson/realization may also have played into why we've seen an uptick in later round draftees on the NCAA & KHL tracks, in the back-half of this decade.

 

[henchman21]

Yeah I think longer timeframes for evaluation plays into their selections a lot lately. Hepple has admitted his goalie strategy is heavy Euro because of that. You seen in Hepple's drafts there tend to be heavy leans towards longer evaluation periods (19 players in the last 4 drafts have had potential for longer than 2 seasons of evaluation). This year was way less impacted than priors, but it seems they are wanting to delay decisions more often than not past 2 years. If a player impresses early, they can pull them out of college or Europe... but letting them marinate a bit seems to be where they are heading. And first rounders tend to get rushed more often than not into contracts. Overall, longer time frames are tending to win out. I don't know if it is for better or for worse, but I do like they are looking at it differently than they did prior.

 

[cgf]

Yeah I think longer timeframes for evaluation plays into their selections a lot lately. Hepple has admitted his goalie strategy is heavy Euro because of that. You seen in Hepple's drafts there tend to be heavy leans towards longer evaluation periods (19 players in the last 4 drafts have had potential for longer than 2 seasons of evaluation). This year was way less impacted than priors, but it seems they are wanting to delay decisions more often than not past 2 years. If a player impresses early, they can pull them out of college or Europe... but letting them marinate a bit seems to be where they are heading. And first rounders tend to get rushed more often than not into contracts. Overall, longer time frames are tending to win out. I don't know if it is for better or for worse, but I do like they are looking at it differently than they did prior.

As someone who errs on the side of over-cooking, I'm for it in the long run even if it doesn't pay off in the shortrun. As long as it can help the organization get used to needing to be patient with prospects that require slow-cooking...thereby (hopefully) alleviating some of their prospect ADD...that is a big win in my books; even if these particular long term projects don't end up paying off in any significant way.

The big question for me is what lesson they will learn from this current MO.

 

[henchman21]

As someone who errs on the side of over-cooking, I'm for it in the long run even if it doesn't pay off in the shortrun. As long as it can help the organization get used to needing to be patient with prospects that require slow-cooking...thereby (hopefully) alleviating some of their prospect ADD...that is a big win in my books; even if these particular long term projects don't end up paying off in any significant way.

The big question for me is what lesson they will learn from this current MO.

I really don't know where I stand... I hear convincing arguments all the time from different people that I trust. I was just having this marinate/rush/whocares conversation this weekend with a guy I supremely trust this weekend (IMO the best scouting eye in the business), and he's basically on the side saying cream rises to the top and trust your evaluation. None of rushing or timeline matters if the talent (and drive) are there... so find the talent and it will all work out. Yet I've also had people I respect tell me that you need to spoon feed all but the very top end talent (meaning top 10ish). You scout for skills you can maximize and find a way to coax those out of them. I think both sides are right, and both sides are wrong... all is relative and there is no correct answer.

My fear with the Avs going down this path is they are potentially biasing themselves against a talent evaluation. IE you might take a player you like a little less with security blanket of 4 years evaluation rather than trusting your gut on a 2 year evaluation. Guess we will see in the end.

 

[cgf]

I really don't know where I stand... I hear convincing arguments all the time from different people that I trust. I was just having this marinate/rush/whocares conversation this weekend with a guy I supremely trust this weekend (IMO the best scouting eye in the business), and he's basically on the side saying cream rises to the top and trust your evaluation. None of rushing or timeline matters if the talent (and drive) are there... so find the talent and it will all work out. Yet I've also had people I respect tell me that you need to spoon feed all but the very top end talent (meaning top 10ish). You scout for skills you can maximize and find a way to coax those out of them. I think both sides are right, and both sides are wrong... all is relative and there is no correct answer.

My fear with the Avs going down this path is they are potentially biasing themselves against a talent evaluation. IE you might take a player you like a little less with security blanket of 4 years evaluation rather than trusting your gut on a 2 year evaluation. Guess we will see in the end.

There's exceptions to every rule of thumb, so I'm certainly with the bolded despite my ideological leaning towards the second bolded position...as I'm non-dogmatic and a pragmatist in every forum; so I'm all about expanding our options for success, whatever form they may take & whether those options jive with my ideological feelings/opinions.

And I think this organization has limited its ability to add talent in the past, with regards to kids that needed longer to rise to the top. Which is why I like that they are getting more experience in dealing with prospects like that whether these specific projects pay off or not; as that should (hopefully) improve our ability to find talent by expanding the kinds of talents that we can successfully identify / have success with.

Agree on your final point; that's what I was getting at with my 'curious to see what lesson they learn from this MO' and my "over-correcting" quibs.


PS - I would add a third variable alongside talent & drive as the keys to successfully developing young talent, and that being confidence...which is where I do think rushing can adversely impact some prospects who would have been successful elsewise.

As getting overwhelmed & having your confidence shattered can have long-lasting impacts if it causes a kid to stagnate during those key developmental years, in a way that it wouldn't if they were more slowly built up...since they would a) be better prepared when they did get the call, b) be more mature & able to handle that any blows to their self-belief, and c) not be as hurt by stagnating latter in your developmental arc as they would be by stagnating in what should be the elbow of their growth curves.

Though this heavily transposed from what I know about football...as developing young talent is developing young talent whether you're teaching kids what part of their foot to use to strike what part of a soccer ball in situation X or when they need to shift their weight from one skate-edge to the other in situation Y...rather than something I've gotten to talk to any professional hockey coaches or scouts about in depth, the way I've been lucky enough to do with youth coaches & scouts from the german football world that my friends work (read: drink ) with.

 

[henchman21]

There's exceptions to every rule of thumb, so I'm certainly with the bolded despite my ideological leaning towards the second bolded position...as I'm non-dogmatic and a pragmatist in every forum; so I'm all about expanding our options for success, whatever form they may take & whether those options jive with my ideological feelings/opinions.

And I think this organization has limited its ability to add talent in the past, with regards to kids that needed longer to rise to the top. Which is why I like that they are getting more experience in dealing with prospects like that whether these specific projects pay off or not; as that should (hopefully) improve our ability to find talent by expanding the kinds of talents that we can successfully identify / have success with.

Agree on your final point; that's what I was getting at with my 'curious to see what lesson they learn from this MO' and my "over-correcting" quibs.


PS - I would add a third variable alongside talent & drive as the keys to successfully developing young talent, and that being confidence...which is where I do think rushing can adversely impact some prospects who would have been successful elsewise.

As getting overwhelmed & having your confidence shattered can have long-lasting impacts if it causes a kid to stagnate during those key developmental years, in a way that it wouldn't if they were more slowly built up...since they would a) be better prepared when they did get the call, b) be more mature & able to handle that any blows to their self-belief, and c) not be as hurt by stagnating latter in your developmental arc as they would be by stagnating in what should be the elbow of their growth curves.

Though this heavily transposed from what I know about football...as developing young talent is developing young talent whether you're teaching kids what part of their foot to use to strike what part of a soccer ball in situation X or when they need to shift their weight from one skate-edge to the other in situation Y...rather than something I've gotten to talk to any professional hockey coaches or scouts about in depth, the way I've been lucky enough to do with youth coaches & scouts from the german football world that my friends work (read: drink ) with.

Honestly... the more people I'm around and chat with in the scouting world, the more I realize I have a ton to learn. I'm certainly no expert... I'm just trying to glean what I can from any moment and see what I can take from it. I hope the Avs can find the right braintrust to run their org and scouting... and when there is something new to learn, don't get dogmatic.

 

[cgf]

Honestly... the more people I'm around and chat with in the scouting world, the more I realize I have a ton to learn. I'm certainly no expert... I'm just trying to glean what I can from any moment and see what I can take from it. I hope the Avs can find the right braintrust to run their org and scouting... and when there is something new to learn, don't get dogmatic.

That really does seem to be the key thing based on what my one friend that got to work closely with one of the Bundesliga's best scouting departments through some youth tourney's, said they had emphasized to him. Especially since they had to uproot their scouting network's focus a few times when they had entrenched themselves in an under-scouted country/region whose youth footbal was on the rise, only for the bigger german clubs to come in with their bigger bucks and force BMG to shift their focus to new under-utilized markets that they could find good values in; while constantly fine-tuning what they look for and how they valued various traits to try to create competitive advantages in a market that could simply outspend them too often.

 

[Foxtail]

More fodder but nice to see

NHL farm system rankings: Best, worst prospect pipelines for 2019-20, from 1 to 31