Prospect Info: 2018/19 Marlies & Prospects Thread Part V

[stickty111]

I see your nasty avatar Mr. Positivity:

"Shots are okay when I'm doing them."

I see your nasty "mr shot taker"
"Timashov rookie season>Bracco rookie season.

 

[biotk]

That’s not accurate

It is.

but more importantly, he was ahead of all of them in PPG except Brannstrom until the game where he was injured in December.

Probably not the case. I don't care to go back and look at where everyone was on December 1st (the day Liljegren was injured), but his PPG at that time was 0.421 which would lift from 8th among the 8 in his draft class to 6th.

 

[stickty111]

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[stickty111]

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[stickty111]

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[stickty111]

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[stickty111]

I asked Mark about Lilly, who watches pretty much every Marlies game.
Here is what he said.

"Liljegren has been real good and yes he's cleaned up in his own zone.

I'm not worried about lack of points at all. Think we focus too much on that side as far as defensemen go.

He'll never put up huge numbers IMO but he will produce.

@JustAShadow

 

[Morgs]

Sandin is more likely to be Morrissey type guy.

Sandin's production follows a whole different level of player in a good way. His underlying stats (from the little information we have) are lagging behind production, so the hope is he ends up being better with age + more information, and not ends up as a Risto type (obviously an extreme example).

Where as Liljegren & Morissey were thought of irresponsible 1 way guys, whos production was ahead of everything else, that turned into two-way studs. Liljegren has absolutely killed it in CF% this year, and is not even close to the same defenseman he was described as on draft day - guy reminds me of a less physical Dermott in ways.

 

[stickty111]

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This has become extremely rare, but you can ignore that.

 

[biotk]

to be fair, he is being tasked with focusing on his defensive game at the expense of his offense. We've seen the same with players such as Rielly. I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that he can still improve offensively once the reigns are off. I do believe in his offensive skillset, even if the numbers aren't there yet. Being hurt in key developmental years may also have slowed him down a lot, but not stopped him from potentially being a good player one day. I do think he's not close to Sandin as of now, and is falling behind others

I agree that development is not linear, and that the concentration for Liljegren was on other aspects of his game. I have also said that due to significant injury issues over each of the last 3 years his development has been harmed immensely.

Last year, there wasn't many people to compare him too. And he was better defensively than advertised. It was easy to be really high on him. But for his D+2 there are a lot of comparables, especially among his own draft class, and the results are not promising.

He could take off next year like Rosen did this year (Rosen was 0.355 last year and 0.852 this year, although he first took off in the playoffs last year with 9 points in the final 10 games). Some people have him plugged in as top 4 for the Leafs next year. But as of right now the evidence doesn't support him being a bottom player next year, and likely not much more than 6/7 going forward.

 

[Knies iT]

Incorrect. Lilly's defensive game has gone a long way. It's not hyping it up just because his offensive game is down. You can see the drastic improvement from last season to this season.
Lilly is better then Sandin defensively. He is also better then Rosen defensively. Borgman and Lilly is no contest. The only one you can say is Loverde yet he makes more mistakes then Lilly.

I don’t even think his offensive game is down. His play has improved overall. But to act like he’s a defensive stalwart is pretty misleading.

Agree to disagree but I think both Rosen and Sandin are better defensively than Liljegren. His coverage and play in front of the net are seriously lacking, but he’s become more physically engaged which is a good sign. Every single game he either gives up a breakaway via turnover, or misses an assignment in the crease. Borgman is a lost cause, so I give Lilj the nod there, but again, he’s certainly not the best in my opinion.

 

[stickty111]

I don’t even think his offensive game is down. His play has improved overall. But to act like he’s a defensive stalwart is pretty misleading.

Agree to disagree but I think both Rosen and Sandin are better defensively than Liljegren. His coverage and play in front of the net are seriously lacking, but he’s become more physically engaged which is a good sign. Every single game he either gives up a breakaway via turnover, or misses an assignment in the crease. Borgman is a lost cause, so I give Lilj the nod there, but again, he’s certainly not the best in my opinion.

I never said he was. He can still improve but the difference between last season and this season is big.
Agree to disagree on the rest.

 

[deletethis]

I never said he was.

"Lilly is better then Sandin defensively. He is also better then Rosen defensively. Borgman and Lilly is no contest. The only one you can say is Loverde yet he makes more mistakes then Lilly."

That clearly states that you think he's the Marlies' best defensive defender.

 

[4thline]

But as of right now the evidence doesn't support him being a bottom player next year, and likely not much more than 6/7 going forward.

There is no evidence that supports that other than reactionary hunches

 

[4thline]

Fun fact for all:
At U20 (Liljegren's current season) Gardiner put up 13 points in 41 games. In the NCAA.

Stop grading A type prospects against the bluechip curve just because we choose to develop them in the AHL.

 

[stickty111]

"Lilly is better then Sandin defensively. He is also better then Rosen defensively. Borgman and Lilly is no contest. The only one you can say is Loverde yet he makes more mistakes then Lilly."

That clearly states that you think he's the Marlies' best defensive defender.

Yes it clearly states he is the Marlies best defensive defenceman.
That clearly doesn't state he is a defensive stalwart.

 

[stickty111]

"Lilly is better then Sandin defensively. He is also better then Rosen defensively. Borgman and Lilly is no contest. The only one you can say is Loverde yet he makes more mistakes then Lilly."

That clearly states that you think he's the Marlies' best defensive defender.

Timashov in 2016/17 >>>> Bracco and Brooks in 2017/18
You were saying?

 

[stickty111]

More great clips of Lilly.



Kevin Papetti on Twitter

 

[TheGoldenJet]

It is.

Geisser is one that is still lower, off the top of my head.

Probably not the case. I don't care to go back and look at where everyone was on December 1st (the day Liljegren was injured), but his PPG at that time was 0.421 which would lift from 8th among the 8 in his draft class to 6th.

It is the case.

Liljegren had 8 points in 18 games or 0.444 ppg before his injury, which ranked him 2nd in his draft class at the time, and still compares favourably to his peers’ numbers at the end of the season (unless you want to count the couple minutes he played before his first period injury in his 19th game).

Since his injury and the error the medical staff made of letting him come back too early (which led to a second injury on top of his old one) he’s had a harder time getting points and getting back to his game.

 

[deletethis]

Yes it clearly states he is the Marlies best defensive defenceman.
That clearly doesn't state he is a defensive stalwart.

Literalism, you wear your fedora well.

 

[stickty111]

Literalism, you wear your fedora well.

Learn to read properly, and stop cherrypicking clips to support a narrative.

 

[biotk]

It is the case.

It is not.

Liljegren had 8 points in 18 games or 0.444 ppg before his injury, which ranked him 2nd in his draft class at the time

Nope.

and still compares favourably to his peers’ numbers at the end of the season (unless you want to count the couple minutes he played before his first period injury in his 19th game).

At the time of Liljegren's injury he would have been well behind Brannstrom (0.737), and behind Hague 0.476 (10 points in 21 games). He would have been ahead of Foote (6 points in 19 games) and ahead of Fleury if you don't count the game Liljegren was injured (because it helps your cause) but do count the game Fleury was injured in a little bit before (because it helps your cause). If you don't count the injury games for both Fleury is ahead 0.455 to 0.444

So in competing with only Brannstrom, Foote, Hague (34OA) and Fleury (87OA) (Valimaki, Jokijarju and Vaakanainen were all in the NHL during the first half and put up way better numbers than Liljegren in the second half.) Liljegren was either 3rd out of 5 if you manipulate things to your favour, and 4th out of 5 if you don't.

 

[biotk]

There is no evidence that supports that other than reactionary hunches

There will be D out of the 8 2017 drafted D who played 20+ games in AHL who do not make the NHL as regulars or who play 6/7. There always are. Saying that there is a likelihood that the least productive of the 8 will be a 6/7 is not reactionary, it is something that everyone here would recognize as likely if he were not a Leafs prospects.

Fun fact for all:
At U20 (Liljegren's current season) Gardiner put up 13 points in 41 games. In the NCAA.

Stop grading A type prospects against the bluechip curve just because we choose to develop them in the AHL.

It isn't grading a prospect against the bluechip curve to say that he was 8th among 8 D from his draft class in PPG in the AHL this season. 3 of those players were taken in the 3 spots ahead of him and the rest after him by as many of 70 picks. That is grading him against his peers - peers who every poster on here at the beginning of the season would have said Liljegren would blow them away numbers-wise (with the except of Brannstrom). And if Liljegren had put up, say double the PPG that he did, the same people who are saying his PPG don't matter would be claiming it is the most important thing.

Liljegren: 2nd in PPG among 18-year-olds in AHL history!
Liljegren: 2nd in PPG among 18-year-olds in AHL history!
Liljegren: 2nd in PPG among 18-year-olds in AHL history!
Liljegren: 2nd in PPG among 18-year-olds in AHL history!
Liljegren: 2nd in PPG among 18-year-olds in AHL history!

Oh, the next year Liljegren finished behind the D in his draft class in PPG in the AHL?
PPG doesn't matter!
PPG doesn't matter!
PPG doesn't matter!
PPG doesn't matter!
PPG doesn't matter!

We are not talking about a player who played high school and then went to the NCAA who should be expected to have a lot of development ahead of him. We are talking about a player who has two years in the SHL and two years in the AHL under his belt. Carrick had played 34 games in the NHL by the time he was Liljegren's age. Carrick remains a 6/7 D. ​

 

[TheGoldenJet]

It is not.



Nope.



At the time of Liljegren's injury he would have been well behind Brannstrom (0.737), and behind Hague 0.476 (10 points in 21 games). He would have been ahead of Foote (6 points in 19 games) and ahead of Fleury if you don't count the game Liljegren was injured (because it helps your cause) but do count the game Fleury was injured in a little bit before (because it helps your cause). If you don't count the injury games for both Fleury is ahead 0.455 to 0.444

So in competing with only Brannstrom, Foote, Hague (34OA) and Fleury (87OA) (Valimaki, Jokijarju and Vaakanainen were all in the NHL during the first half and put up way better numbers than Liljegren in the second half.) Liljegren was either 3rd out of 5 if you manipulate things to your favour, and 4th out of 5 if you don't.

Ok, I forgot about Hague (who still cooled off at year’s end to below where Liljegren was at in December).

Liljegren was still ahead of the other first rounders, including both Vaakanainen (who you left off for some reason) and Foote.

He was also ahead of Geisser, another 2017 pick. Fleury played 11 games before his injury and that was a third period injury so I’d count him behind Liljegren, but understand if you don’t.

 

[GoldenGOOSE]

He is solidly built, meaning he might be quite thick in a few years. Lord knows the leafs need beefier, fast players.