Speculation: 2017 Trade Deadline Discussion - Part 2

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Jame

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Mod note: Part one here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2180827

I dont see Buffalo losing Kane for nothing. If he was not signed to an extnesion, he gets traded for something likely in late July after they talk some (if he isnt traded before that)

lets relook at the trade with Winnipeg...

Bogo=Myers

so you have Kane for a UFA+ a late 1st+Armia+ Lemieux. I see Lemieux as a 4th lliner on a good team, on a poor team he plays 3rd line. Armia is a nd/3rd line winger who could play on a 1st line if there is chemistry with the linemates. The late 1st 25-30 is an utter crapshoot in terms of being anything beyond a 3rd liner/#4-6 Dman.

if Buffalo kept their players and didnt make these trades (for ROR and Kane) you would be looking at this:

vets drafted in 2012 or before (9)
Ennis, Moulson, Foligno, Gionta, Larsson,Girgensons, Grigorenko, Armia, Des,
drafted 2013 or later (9):
Eichel, Reinhart, Lemieux, Compher, Bptiste, Bailey, Fasching, Carrier, Nylander,
+ other system forwards and the 1st and 2nd round picks traded

18 forwards listed---you can only carry a max of 14 on your roster....they had too many---ideally you want to trade 2 or 3 of them and bring in an estqblished veteran forward. That is what they did.





The issue is the Ennis and Moulson contracts.....

as a result 18-19 will be close to the cap if they dont move one of them

Nylander(ELC)-Eichel ($6M)- Bailey (BR) = 8.2
Carrier (BR)-ROR($7.5M)- KO ($6M) =14.7
Kane ($6M)-Reinhart ($5M)- Baptste (BR) = 12.2
Foligno ($3M))-Larsson/Girgs ($3M)-Fasching(BR) =8.2
Moulson ($5M), Ennis ($4.6M) = 9.6

(BR)=$1.2M
(ELC)=$1M

F= 8.2+ 14.7+ 12.2+8.2+9.6=$52.9M
D/G= 11.4+ 6.7+4+5= $27.1M
T= $80M


vet ($6M)- Risto ($5.4M)
McCabe($1.6M)-Bogo($5.1M)
Guhle (ELC)- vet($2M)
vet ($1M)

Lehner ($4M)
backu ($1M)


the totl is $80M---I highly doubt the cap will be that high---more like $75M. If Buffalo could move Moulson they would be just under the cap.

This is also why I see only 1 of Foligno/Larsson/Girgensons being on the tem in 18/19. A cost cutting move. substituting $1M/ELC players saves them around $4M in cap space.

in 19/10 season

Moulson/Ennis will come off the books---that$9.6M would then go to McCabe+ Nylander or one of the other BR players.

Bogosian cap space when his contract end in 2020 would then open up space to sign Guhle from his ELC ending and save space for the likely 2017 1st Dman they would then sign after the ELC in maybe 2020 or 2021





With Toronto...in 18/19 Toronto is in a little bit of a quadry

tin 2017 and 2018 they have 10 RFA contracts up to be resigned and 7 UFAs that expire.

as of now for 18/19 thy have 7 contracts costing $29M

in 2019 they have Matthews and Marner to sign--those arent counted in the 10 RFAs I mentioned above.

If they operate with a $75M cap then you figure they would have an internal cap limit of around $60M in committed contracts in 2019 summer when they need to sign Matthews and Marner. They wil need to be careful the next couple of years and their 10 RFAs could be gotten with low offer sheets that only cost a 2nd round pick as compensation.

Also in 2019/20 them having Horton and his dead cap space will play a role that season because many of their players will be beyongd ELC so they wont be able to put contracts against Hortons LTIR.

Why are you bridging 1st year RFAs at 1.2?

All you have to do is look at how Larsson and Girgensons have been handled to see that's not how Murray will handle 3 first year RFAs.

You're giving them near 100% raises... it's silly
 
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Djp

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Why are you bridging 1st year RFAs at 1.2?

All you have to do is look at how Larsson and Girgensons have been handled to see that's not how Murray will handle 3 first year RFAs.

You're giving them near 100% raises... it's silly
100% raises???

the base salary is 800K-925K. using $1.2M is an average bridge contract salary. that is a 50% increase.

Foligno got as a bridge $1.875M if I recall correctly. remember its based on how they perfom next year--not this year.

Can you say for certain that non of bailey, baptiste, fashing, or Carrier will have a break out year?? If any of them play on the top 3 lines with ROR-Eichel-Reinhart as the centers over the course of the year I would not be surprised if 1-2 of them could put up 15-20 goal seasons and 38-45 pt seasons.
 

Jame

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100% raises???

the base salary is 800K-925K. using $1.2M is an average bridge contract salary. that is a 50% increase.

Foligno got as a bridge $1.875M if I recall correctly. remember its based on how they perfom next year--not this year.

Can you say for certain that non of bailey, baptiste, fashing, or Carrier will have a break out year?? If any of them play on the top 3 lines with ROR-Eichel-Reinhart as the centers over the course of the year I would not be surprised if 1-2 of them could put up 15-20 goal seasons and 38-45 pt seasons.

Carriers base salary is 670k
Bailey is 670k
Baptiste is 718k

Qualifying offers are based on previous base salary

So yea, you proposed nearly 100% raises for Carrier and Bailey

And Foligno's contract was in a different cap world for the Sabres and Murray clearly sees that difference in how he handled Larsson and Girgs.
 

CatsforReinhart

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What started the madness of posters thinking we can get Sergachev at the deadline?

No one thinks that. Not that I read. I was pretty sure people are just debating. I love how people always attack on a message board even mods just for debating or post trades like they actually mean something in the NHL.

Someone saying,"I would give up Kane for Sergachev"

Somehow you have turned into,"its madness to think Montreal would trade Sergachev at the deadline!!!!"

Not the same thing mate. Relax.
 

dotcommunism

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Carriers base salary is 670k
Bailey is 670k
Baptiste is 718k

Qualifying offers are based on previous base salary

So yea, you proposed nearly 100% raises for Carrier and Bailey

Your numbers aren't quite accurate. Carrier's salary for QO purposes is $750K, Bailey's is $650K and Baptiste's is $750k. So Bailey would be due a QO of $715K, whereas Carrier and Baptiste would be due QOs of $787.5K

That said, I agree with you in principle that those three (plus Fasching, with his $874K QO) won't all receive bridge deals that give them such a significant raise.

(Also the multi-season roster outlook posts are probably better suited for the Roster Speculation thread than this one)
 

AustonsNostrils

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how did Bailey as a 2nd round pick get a lower value contract than Baptiste who was a 3rd rounder?
 

La Cosa Nostra

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100% raises???

the base salary is 800K-925K. using $1.2M is an average bridge contract salary. that is a 50% increase.

Foligno got as a bridge $1.875M if I recall correctly. remember its based on how they perfom next year--not this year.

Can you say for certain that non of bailey, baptiste, fashing, or Carrier will have a break out year?? If any of them play on the top 3 lines with ROR-Eichel-Reinhart as the centers over the course of the year I would not be surprised if 1-2 of them could put up 15-20 goal seasons and 38-45 pt seasons.

The only Sabres who have 20 goals or are projected to reach 20 this year are Kane, Okposo, and Eichel. Last year only Kane, Reinhart, RoR and Eichel hit 20 last year. It's very unlikely any of them hit 20 goals and almost certainly impossible that 2 of them reach 20 goals each. Giving over a mil each to them is simply not realistic or good financial management. They will take their QOs (or get a small increase over them). Why would we pay for what they might do? If Zemgus Girgensons took his $1.15 mil for this year even with a 15 goal in 60 games on his resume why would the young wingers get more then that? All of them combined don't even have the 15 goals Girgs scored by himself his second year.
 

TehDoak

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To get back to the deadline I'm quite certain that Franson and Kulikov are gone. The only question is do we get just futures back (picks/prospects) or we get more NHL ready players back. I think we will need to take some salary back due to teams being up against the cap.
 

truthbluth

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joshjull; said:
What started the madness of posters thinking we can get Sergachev at the deadline?
Actually, I think it was a Sabresbuzz blog post suggesting it.
 

Jame

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Your numbers aren't quite accurate. Carrier's salary for QO purposes is $750K, Bailey's is $650K and Baptiste's is $750k. So Bailey would be due a QO of $715K, whereas Carrier and Baptiste would be due QOs of $787.5K

That said, I agree with you in principle that those three (plus Fasching, with his $874K QO) won't all receive bridge deals that give them such a significant raise.

(Also the multi-season roster outlook posts are probably better suited for the Roster Speculation thread than this one)

Where are you getting those numbers? And under what "rules"?

I'm simply looking at capfriendly, for the base salary (not including bonus).

Where am I going wrong?
 

Snippit

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At this point I'll honestly take a 2nd for Kulikov. Get something for him, cause I know I'm not resigning him.
 

Sabre Dance

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The #1 guy I hope they move out is Gionta. Its time to pass the torch and go with the kids next year.

No more Moulson, Gorges, and Franson also. Hopefully. Murray needs to find a way to dump Moulson and Gorges.
 

Zip15

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You would be lucky to get a 2.

He will get a 2nd-plus. I have little doubt that Kulikov is held in higher esteem around the league than Ron Hainsey, who was effectively brought in to be a 3rd pairing defenseman in Pittsburgh.

My best guess is that he'll get a 2nd and a 4th.
 

dotcommunism

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Where are you getting those numbers? And under what "rules"?

I'm simply looking at capfriendly, for the base salary (not including bonus).

Where am I going wrong?

QOs are based on a player's Paragraph 1 salary in the final season of their previous contract. Paragraph 1 salary doesn't include any bonuses, even signing bonuses. So for Carrier, for example, his salary in the final year of his ELC is $750K and since he has no signing bonus that season, his Paragraph 1 salary is the same. For Fasching, however, his salary in the final year of his ELC is $925K, but $92.5K of that is signing bonus, meaning his Paragraph 1 salary is $832.5K.

How to calculate the QO then depends on what the player's Paragraph 1 salary is. If it's less than $660K, the QO is 110% of it. If it's between $660K and $1M, it's 105% and if it's $1M or more, it's 100%.
 

Jame

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QOs are based on a player's Paragraph 1 salary in the final season of their previous contract. Paragraph 1 salary doesn't include any bonuses, even signing bonuses. So for Carrier, for example, his salary in the final year of his ELC is $750K and since he has no signing bonus that season, his Paragraph 1 salary is the same. For Fasching, however, his salary in the final year of his ELC is $925K, but $92.5K of that is signing bonus, meaning his Paragraph 1 salary is $832.5K.

How to calculate the QO then depends on what the player's Paragraph 1 salary is. If it's less than $660K, the QO is 110% of it. If it's between $660K and $1M, it's 105% and if it's $1M or more, it's 100%.

Thanks.

Why is Carrier's cap hit 689k, when his paragraph 1 salary is 750k (per capcriendly )
 

joshjull

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No one thinks that. Not that I read. I was pretty sure people are just debating. I love how people always attack on a message board even mods just for debating or post trades like they actually mean something in the NHL.

Someone saying,"I would give up Kane for Sergachev"

Somehow you have turned into,"its madness to think Montreal would trade Sergachev at the deadline!!!!"

Not the same thing mate. Relax.

Pointing out the madness of a trade idea for the 2017 trade deadline in the 2017 trade deadline thread is about as on point for the thread topic as you can get. Discussing what one would give up for Serg is pointless exercise for this thread unless you can make a logical argument as to why the trade would even happen at the trade deadline. If you can't then its just a general discussion on what one would give up for Serg. Which is not the intended point of this thread. Thus taking the discussion off topic.

I also posted what I did to find out what the source of this was. Generally there is a trigger for something as far out there as the Habs trading Serg.


Actually, I think it was a Sabresbuzz blog post suggesting it.

Not surprising it was a source like this.
 
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Jame

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Pointing out the madness of a trade idea for the 2017 trade deadline in the 2017 trade deadline thread is about as on point for the thread topic as you can get. Discussing what one would give up for Serg is pointless exercise unless you can make a logical argument as to why the trade would even happen at the trade deadline. If you can't then its just a general discussion on what one would give up for Serg. Which is not the intended point of this thread.

I also posted what I did to find out what the source of this was. Generally something is behind a far out there discussion.




I figured it was a source like this.

Erat for F.Forsberg

Trade deadline top 6 scorer with term, for a teams top prospect

It can happen
:dream:
 

dotcommunism

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Thanks.

Why is Carrier's cap hit 689k, when his paragraph 1 salary is 750k (per capcriendly )

Cap hit involves averaging a player's salary over the life of the contract. His paragraphy 1 salary is only 750k for the final year of his contract.
 

jvirk

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If some team really wants him, then TM should settle for a conditional first (otherwise it's a 2nd).
 

Doug Prishpreed

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Knowing Murray, the Kuli trade will involve conditions. Something like 2017 2nd + 2018 5th, which will become a 3rd if they make it to the conference finals.
 

Revelate

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Linus Ullmark recalled
Nilsson trade coming?

it's def. not injury related imo given Nilsson backed up last night and they called up Kasdorf to Rochester yesterday. With the way Petersen is playing GMTM has some goalie decisions to make.
 
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