Prospect Info: 2017 Leafs Board Prospect Ranking #10

[zeke]

He is.. and he proved it this season in Kitchener, the WJC, and in the Memorial Cup.

When he went to Windsor, it was clearly not the right move for him. The way Rocky Thompson's brand of hockey is is not the way Bracco excels at playing.

Just think, if he stayed in Kitchener he would probably have ended up with 100-110 points, and your entire smear campaign would not exist. Instead he got traded to Windsor, and was probably the 2nd most important player on the memorial cup winning run.

i wish we could parse stats like that but that's usually a recipe for disaster.

Age 18: 1.31ppg (plyffs 1.55)
Age 19: 1.46ppg (plyffs 1.18)

for a 1 dimensional winger, that's just not enough.

I mean we can see maybe 2nd line offensive upside there but there are major question marks on every single other part of his game.

 

[Mr Hockey]

My opinion list ...

• Our Top level prospects
• ~
• Kasperi Kapanen
• Timothy Liljegren
• Travis Dermott
• Yegor Korshkov
• Carl Grundstrom
• Joseph Woll

• Our NHL ready/close prospects
• ~
• Calle Rosen
• Andreas Johnsson
• Miro Aaltonen
• Andreas Borgman
• Fredrick Gauthier
• Rinat Valiev

• Our developmental prospects
• ~
• Dmytro Timashov
• Trevor Moore
• Andrew Nielsen
• Tobias Lindberg
• Adam Brooks
• Jeremy Bracco
• Kerby Rychel
• Eemeli Rasanen
• Martins Dzierkals
• Ian Scott

 

[Joey Hoser]

He is.. and he proved it this season in Kitchener, the WJC, and in the Memorial Cup.

When he went to Windsor, it was clearly not the right move for him. The way Rocky Thompson's brand of hockey is is not the way Bracco excels at playing.

Just think, if he stayed in Kitchener he would probably have ended up with 100-110 points, and your entire smear campaign would not exist. Instead he got traded to Windsor, and was probably the 2nd most important player on the memorial cup winning run.

Why would anyone here be on a smear campaign against one of our prospects?

We just aren't as impressed with what he's accomplished so far as you are. Our minds could change quickly if he hits the ground running in the AHL.

Not a big deal.

I just think he should be around #15 instead of #6, and if you have been following these polls for a few years now, you'll know that doesn't mean much as names fly up and down the list every year.

 

[Morgs]

i wish we could parse stats like that but that's usually a recipe for disaster.

Age 18: 1.31ppg (plyffs 1.55)
Age 19: 1.46ppg (plyffs 1.18)

for a 1 dimensional winger, that's just not enough.

I mean we can see maybe 2nd line offensive upside there but there are major question marks on every single other part of his game.

Age 18: played training camp at uni, but gave up there for lack of ice time reasons. Came into the season late, had to get a feel for the team. Finished the season strong.

Age 19:
So you're saying that a change of linemates, system, culture, and location doesn't have any effect on him?

I don't see how you could do anything except split up Kitchener and Windsor. In Kitchener he was one of the best offensive players in the league, and went on a Marner-like point streak. In Windsor, he wasn't given the same opportunity, and played in a system that isn't optimal for him.

This mono is bad news bears if it's anything similar to Liljegren. It will be a lost year in development, and that's not good news for a guy who will probably keep developing until he's 23. I really wanted to see him get steady minutes on a team where he could grow into the top-line role next season and be in the NHL in season 5.

 

[Morgs]

Why would anyone here be on a smear campaign against one of our prospects?

We just aren't as impressed with what he's accomplished so far as you are. Our minds could change quickly if he hits the ground running in the AHL.

Not a big deal.

I just think he should be around #15 instead of #6, and if you have been following these polls for a few years now, you'll know that doesn't mean much as names fly up and down the list every year.

I'm aware how it works.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Bracco was forced to play a two-way game at Windsor, he said it in an interview during the M cup. If you watched him in, Kitch, he was only noticeable in the O-zone.

 

[stickty111]

Bracco was forced to play a two-way game at Windsor, he said it in an interview during the M cup. If you watched him in, Kitch, he was only noticeable in the O-zone.

Which he than adjusted too based on his performance in the memorial cup

 

[Advanced stats]

Age 18: played training camp at uni, but gave up there for lack of ice time reasons. Came into the season late, had to get a feel for the team. Finished the season strong.

Age 19:
So you're saying that a change of linemates, system, culture, and location doesn't have any effect on him?

So at age 19, a change of system, linemates, culture and location gets the blame for an underwhelming season......
So why didn't a change of location, system, culture, and linemates affect him at age 18? It was huge.

If he's not as effective in a defensive structure, than he's not going to be an NHL player. No one carves out an NHL career with the lazy type of play that Bracco has. Especially on the leafs or marlies. Keefe and Babcock require defensive commitment first and foremost.

 

[stickty111]

So at age 19, a change of system, linemates, culture and location gets the blame for an underwhelming season......
So why didn't a change of location, system, culture, and linemates affect him at age 18? It was huge.

If he's not as effective in a defensive structure, than he's not going to be an NHL player. No one carves out an NHL career with the lazy type of play that Bracco has. Especially on the leafs or marlies. Keefe and Babcock require defensive commitment first and foremost.

Not like Nylander had defensive commitment either and he developed that this season. He was lazy too

Bracco will be fine

 

[Morgs]

So at age 19, a change of system, linemates, culture and location gets the blame for an underwhelming season......
So why didn't a change of location, system, culture, and linemates affect him at age 18? It was huge.

If he's not as effective in a defensive structure, than he's not going to be an NHL player. No one carves out an NHL career with the lazy type of play that Bracco has. Especially on the leafs or marlies. Keefe and Babcock require defensive commitment first and foremost.

It did have a similar effect. But nobody had high expecations in his age 18 season.

I think you'd be surprised. His defensive zone play is not very good, but he's also the kind of player that always has the puck on his stick... so defense is not exactly something he needs to do. Take Marner; he's terrible defensively, but he tries hard so people believe he's at least "decent". I'm sure Bracco is no worse than JVR/Bozak and they've both carved out careers as sheltered offensive players.

 

[Bullseye]

My opinion list ...

• Our Top level prospects
• ~
• Kasperi Kapanen
• Timothy Liljegren
• Travis Dermott
• Yegor Korshkov
• Carl Grundstrom
• Joseph Woll

• Our NHL ready/close prospects
• ~
• Calle Rosen
• Andreas Johnsson
• Miro Aaltonen
• Andreas Borgman
• Fredrick Gauthier
• Rinat Valiev

• Our developmental prospects
• ~
• Dmytro Timashov
• Trevor Moore
• Andrew Nielsen
• Tobias Lindberg
• Adam Brooks
• Jeremy Bracco
• Kerby Rychel
• Eemeli Rasanen
• Martins Dzierkals
• Ian Scott

I appreciate the way you divided your list. Sensible. I have a few changes to make in the order but I like the organization.

 

[zeke]

Age 18: played training camp at uni, but gave up there for lack of ice time reasons. Came into the season late, had to get a feel for the team. Finished the season strong.

Age 19:
So you're saying that a change of linemates, system, culture, and location doesn't have any effect on him?

I don't see how you could do anything except split up Kitchener and Windsor. In Kitchener he was one of the best offensive players in the league, and went on a Marner-like point streak. In Windsor, he wasn't given the same opportunity, and played in a system that isn't optimal for him.

This mono is bad news bears if it's anything similar to Liljegren. It will be a lost year in development, and that's not good news for a guy who will probably keep developing until he's 23. I really wanted to see him get steady minutes on a team where he could grow into the top-line role next season and be in the NHL in season 5.

even if you want to split up his time last year , it'z still bad news - he padded his stats with huge icetime on a bad team, then strugglrd to produce on a better team.with more structure and fewer minutes.

but spinning either way is just spin. your reasons are just excuses. he's far from the first prospect to change teams.

 

[Bullseye]

even if you want to split up his time last year , it'z still bad news - he padded his stats with huge icetime on a bad team, then strugglrd to produce on a better team.with more structure and fewer minutes.

but spinning either way is just spin. your reasons are just excuses. he's far from the first prospect to change teams.

Timashov went through the same experience. His numbers went down after changing teams. Not sure I know of any other good examples but seems as though the most successful guys have stayed put in recent years. I guess it would be prudent to support the argument to produce stats on prospects who changed teams and keep increasing their numbers. I mean Lou and Co. are using that plus the mono as a excuse for Liligren's decline last season.

Nylander is an example of a guy that was top tier everywhere despite changing teams mid season. With Bracco though he keeps winning and plays well in important games. U18 WJC MCup. Maybe it's not all about numbers with him. I'm not being flippant or wanting an argument - just asking cause I honestly don't know.

 

[Leaf Lander]

Brooks

 

[Mr Hockey]

I appreciate the way you divided your list. Sensible. I have a few changes to make in the order but I like the organization.

Feel free to make changes, this was just my way of seeing things.

 

[Morgs]

even if you want to split up his time last year , it'z still bad news - he padded his stats with huge icetime on a bad team, then strugglrd to produce on a better team.with more structure and fewer minutes.

but spinning either way is just spin. your reasons are just excuses. he's far from the first prospect to change teams.

Obviously it's just excuses, but like I keep saying: he's always projected to be a 4 year prospect. You need to give him the time to develop into his body and give him a chance to play on one team for an entire year. He's too skilled to not get better.

 

[4thline]

I can never find good OHL stats - do you see this as more of a knock on Rasanen or a pumping of Middleton/Gordeev's tires as being undervalued offensively? I don't know how their 5v5 scoring rates look against the backdrop of other defensemen in the league

Both.. and neither really . Much was made of the latter two's lack of offensive production being reason to write them "don't have the skill to produce in Junior then won't have the skill to break out and make good plays in the N". I disagree with that line of thinking on three fronts (that all interplay)

a-ecological inference fallacy, just because the statistical relationship is generally true doesn't mean it will hold to each case, every player i different (shout out Nith)

b-game evolution. I think we're starting to witness the next breed of big dman. Hockey players aren't dumb. Post lockout high speed hockey didn't kill them, it just forced them to adapt. Being big and strong stopped being good enough so it was only a matter of time until "fridges on skates" learned that they'd still need to be mobile and make a first pass. Relates to A in that this new breed of monster is inherently rare, and well new. Not captured in the historical sample.

c. context. Raw stat line doesn't tell you how a player was used, or how good their team was. A defensive dman that doesn't get PP time on a low skill, low scoring team isn't going to get many transition or point relay second assists.

Ps, merry Christmas- http://prospect-stats.com/OHL/2016/defensemen/?state_selected=5v5
Though buyer beware on the primary v secondary assists, apparently CHL officials aren't super dilligent in reporting them accurately

 

[Maplebeasts]

My opinion list ...

• Our Top level prospects
• ~
• Kasperi Kapanen
• Timothy Liljegren
• Travis Dermott
• Yegor Korshkov
• Carl Grundstrom
• Joseph Woll

• Our NHL ready/close prospects
• ~
• Calle Rosen
• Andreas Johnsson
• Miro Aaltonen
• Andreas Borgman
• Fredrick Gauthier
• Rinat Valiev

• Our developmental prospects
• ~
• Dmytro Timashov
• Trevor Moore
• Andrew Nielsen
• Tobias Lindberg
• Adam Brooks
• Jeremy Bracco
• Kerby Rychel
• Eemeli Rasanen
• Martins Dzierkals
• Ian Scott

I think this isn't bad at all. Only big quip I have is not having Nielsen with our top prospects. He's certainly performed like one since being drafted, and we have a world class skating coach in Barb Underhill to fix his biggest issue (pivots and edgework).