Speculation: 2017-18 Sharks roster discussion III - Offseason Edition

[Pinkfloyd]

You can't score if you don't shoot. Kane does shoot a lot but to deny he has a very good shot is simply wrong. I don't see anyone crapping on Meier's 10% shooting percentage. On the Sharks Kane was shooting 11.3%. This makes me sound sour on Meier which isn't the case, I am probably one of his biggest fans, I just think it's hilarious how the tune has changed on Kane after 1 playoffs in which he was injured and still scored 4 goals in 9 games 2 of which were on the PP where he's awful.

Also I really don't care about that first. How many 25-30 goal scorers have we drafted in the first round since 2000? One (Couture). How many picks have we had in the later half of the first round turn into anything near Kane's abilities? One (Hertl). To expect that pick to turn into anything amazing under DW/Burke is unrealistic and overly optimistic. It's also just a jump from 2nd round to first round. Either way we're losing a good pick its likely the difference of a pick in the 50 range or a pick in the 20 range. I'll take Kane over that difference.

Lastly, regarding Donskoi. He's a lot of fun to watch and he has a ton of talent but I just don't see him developing into the fantasy player that many people envision here. Hope I'm wrong because I was big on him after that Stanley Cup Final season but I don't see him being more than a 15-20 goal 35-40 point player.

I think the tune changed because now is the first time people were seriously considering the ramifications of keeping Kane with a new contract. Given that nobody expected us to even acquire Kane, much less for what the cost to get him was, I don't think anyone really thought anything of it. But in the short time with the Sharks, they got a glimpse of what he does well and some of the issues keeping him will bring. And to do all that for a minimum of 4 years at 6.5 million per season is something to heavily consider before committing to it regardless of whatever pick implications occur. That's a lot of cap space to invest into a winger that the organization actually has in pretty good numbers and talent. Most are not better than Kane sure but they're likely more cost-effective, with room to grow, and have more influence on the game overall than Kane does. If we re-sign Kane, we're moving one of Hertl/Couture, Pavelski, Boedker, Labanc, Meier, or Donskoi because there's just no room unless we whiff on Tavares and Thornton and any other potential free agent center. Chances of that occurring are very small.

While Donskoi will probably not be a top line player in this league, him being what he is right now at the cost he carries and the probable cost on his next contract is going to be better for the position he plays than Kane at 6.5-7 mil. I like Kane and I thought he played well and gets too much flak for who he is but I want more out of the players that I'm going to sign to that kind of money than what Kane provides.

 

[Maladroit]

You can't score if you don't shoot. Kane does shoot a lot but to deny he has a very good shot is simply wrong. I don't see anyone crapping on Meier's 10% shooting percentage. On the Sharks Kane was shooting 11.3%. This makes me sound sour on Meier which isn't the case, I am probably one of his biggest fans, I just think it's hilarious how the tune has changed on Kane after 1 playoffs in which he was injured and still scored 4 goals in 9 games 2 of which were on the PP where he's awful.

Meier is also not a finisher. I hope he'll develop that skill eventually but it's probably his biggest deficiency as a player. He doesn't have great hands around the net or a particularly deadly shot from distance. He brings so many other great things to the table from physicality to possession skills to being a shot-generating machine but he's not a sniper by any means. If he was he'd be a star.

 

[Nolan11]

I think the tune changed because now is the first time people were seriously considering the ramifications of keeping Kane with a new contract. Given that nobody expected us to even acquire Kane, much less for what the cost to get him was, I don't think anyone really thought anything of it. But in the short time with the Sharks, they got a glimpse of what he does well and some of the issues keeping him will bring. And to do all that for a minimum of 4 years at 6.5 million per season is something to heavily consider before committing to it regardless of whatever pick implications occur. That's a lot of cap space to invest into a winger that the organization actually has in pretty good numbers and talent. Most are not better than Kane sure but they're likely more cost-effective, with room to grow, and have more influence on the game overall than Kane does. If we re-sign Kane, we're moving one of Hertl/Couture, Pavelski, Boedker, Labanc, Meier, or Donskoi because there's just no room unless we whiff on Tavares and Thornton and any other potential free agent center. Chances of that occurring are very small.

While Donskoi will probably not be a top line player in this league, him being what he is right now at the cost he carries and the probable cost on his next contract is going to be better for the position he plays than Kane at 6.5-7 mil. I like Kane and I thought he played well and gets too much flak for who he is but I want more out of the players that I'm going to sign to that kind of money than what Kane provides.

If we could keep the combined cap hits of Tavares and Kane to 17.5 M, we'd be fine. Much more than that and we will be making hard choices, as you say.

If we could get Tavares for 75M over 7, (so just under 11M) we should all celebrate like we won the cup (cause....). My guess though is some team gives him 90M. (so more than McJesus)

I think Kane will cost us more than the 6/per we all hope. What I would be OK seeing is 20M over 3 (6.66 M/per) , 25M over 4 (6.25 M/per) or 30 M over 5 years (6M per). I see DW offering Kane about 2M more than I want over the length of the contract (but hope he does not go over 5 years).

 

[Internazionale]

Meier is also not a finisher. I hope he'll develop that skill eventually but it's probably his biggest deficiency as a player. He doesn't have great hands around the net or a particularly deadly shot from distance. He brings so many other great things to the table from physicality to possession skills to being a shot-generating machine but he's not a sniper by any means. If he was he'd be a star.

In his first full season, he scored 21 goals mostly playing on the third line. He also averaged 14:52 per game which will no doubt climb again next season. Compared to his first year, he is turning into a nice finisher if you ask me. His confidence with the puck and shooting is far above last year. More time on the PP should bode well for him. I am super excited to see him grow again next season. Here's hoping we have a consistent 20+ goal man per year.

If we could keep the combined cap hits of Tavares and Kane to 17.5 M, we'd be fine. Much more than that and we will be making hard choices, as you say.

If we could get Tavares for 75M over 7, (so just under 11M) we should all celebrate like we won the cup (cause....). My guess though is some team gives him 90M. (so more than McJesus)

I think Kane will cost us more than the 6/per we all hope. What I would be OK seeing is 20M over 3 (6.66 M/per) , 25M over 4 (6.25 M/per) or 30 M over 5 years (6M per). I see DW offering Kane about 2M more than I want over the length of the contract (but hope he does not go over 5 years).

I think people are over-valuing Kane. I can't see him have many suitors due to his ''past'' which is good for us. I am going to say he signs at 4.5 M per for 5 years.

Now onto John Tavares. If you asked me about him last week, I would have told you we have a great shot at getting him. With the recent rumblings of the Islanders hiring Lou Lamoriello to possibly persuade Tavares in staying on the Island long term, i'm not so sure anymore. They are looking for help on turning things around rather quickly, and nobody can do this better if you ask me. I'm curious to see how this plays out, but with the recent rumor, the window is closing.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Kane just finished his last season for a contract that had a cap hit of 5.25 million and a salary of 6 mil. Thinking he's going to get less than that is not realistic.

 

[Internazionale]

Kane just finished his last season for a contract that had a cap hit of 5.25 million and a salary of 6 mil. Thinking he's going to get less than that is not realistic.

Again, with few suitors, I can see him staying on a longer term deal for less. Sake of the argument, let's say 4.5-5 M per.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Again, with few suitors, I can see him staying on a longer term deal for less. Sake of the argument, let's say 4.5-5 M per.

He's going to have more than just a few suitors on the open market.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Again, with few suitors, I can see him staying on a longer term deal for less. Sake of the argument, let's say 4.5-5 M per.

That's just not based in reality. I don't even comprehend how you came to that conclusion. It'll be a shock if he gets less than 6mil x 6 years.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Again, with few suitors, I can see him staying on a longer term deal for less. Sake of the argument, let's say 4.5-5 M per.

There are going to be teams interested in him in UFA that weren’t necessarily interested at the TDL. Given the price and their position in the standings, it would have made no sense for Vancouver to pursue Kane at the deadline. But in UFA, for no assets, it might make much more sense for them to go after him.

He will definitely get at least $6M. There is no chance in hell he is taking a pay cut.

 

[Juxtaposer]

You can't score if you don't shoot. Kane does shoot a lot but to deny he has a very good shot is simply wrong. I don't see anyone crapping on Meier's 10% shooting percentage. On the Sharks Kane was shooting 11.3%. This makes me sound sour on Meier which isn't the case, I am probably one of his biggest fans, I just think it's hilarious how the tune has changed on Kane after 1 playoffs in which he was injured and still scored 4 goals in 9 games 2 of which were on the PP where he's awful.

Also I really don't care about that first. How many 25-30 goal scorers have we drafted in the first round since 2000? One (Couture). How many picks have we had in the later half of the first round turn into anything near Kane's abilities? One (Hertl). To expect that pick to turn into anything amazing under DW/Burke is unrealistic and overly optimistic. It's also just a jump from 2nd round to first round. Either way we're losing a good pick its likely the difference of a pick in the 50 range or a pick in the 20 range. I'll take Kane over that difference.

Lastly, regarding Donskoi. He's a lot of fun to watch and he has a ton of talent but I just don't see him developing into the fantasy player that many people envision here. Hope I'm wrong because I was big on him after that Stanley Cup Final season but I don't see him being more than a 15-20 goal 35-40 point player.

I... literally have not “changed my tune” on Kane at all... this is literally been my opinion all along...

But please. If you think no one has ever crapped on Meier for his shot selection, you must have missed like, a whole year of discussion.

We do not know how good the Sharks will be next year. Giving up a 1st round pick a year in advance is moronic. Remember in November 2015 when we were like fourth last in the league and Boston had our unprotected 1st? That was awful.

 

[Maladroit]

In his first full season, he scored 21 goals mostly playing on the third line. He also averaged 14:52 per game which will no doubt climb again next season. Compared to his first year, he is turning into a nice finisher if you ask me. His confidence with the puck and shooting is far above last year. More time on the PP should bode well for him. I am super excited to see him grow again next season. Here's hoping we have a consistent 20+ goal man per year

Just to be clear I'm not saying Meier isn't a goal scorer just that he's not really a high level finisher nor will he ever be. Much like Kane, he thrives on generating insane shot volume. He had one of the best even strength shot rates in the league this year if I recall correctly. Meier, like Kane, scores as a result of shot volume rather than an above-average ability to put those pucks in the net.

There's nothing wrong with that either. At the end of the day, what matters is how many rather than how. But some people were calling Kane and Meier finishers and I don't think that's an accurate description of their playing styles.

 

[Sysreq]

If we make the right moves this off season, we have the potential to go far. I don’t really care about a late first. Hell, even our 21OA is unlikely to be of any importance.

But I have said it before, I’ll say it again, we are not getting Tavares.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Besides, Meier’s shooting percentage went way up after that first 22 game stretch in which he had 2 goals and was generally bad. If you take out that stretch (2 goals on 55 shots) he shot 12.5% on the rest of the year, which is much, much better than Kane’s career 9.1%. Meier was a high-volume shoot-from-anywhere type of player, but his shot selection improved drastically after that 22 game mark. We all watched it happen.

 

[Nolan11]

If we make the right moves this off season, we have the potential to go far. I don’t really care about a late first. Hell, even our 21OA is unlikely to be of any importance.

But I have said it before, I’ll say it again, we are not getting Tavares.

We all know our chances of signing Tavares are hovering just so slightly above zero it isn't worth mentioning. It's fun to daydream. If it happens, we'll all be Thornton was just traded from Boston to San Jose shocked.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

We all know our chances of signing Tavares are hovering just so slightly above zero it isn't worth mentioning. It's fun to daydream. If it happens, we'll all be Thornton was just traded from Boston to San Jose shocked.

I don’t think it’ll be anywhere near that level of shock. Nobody even knew Thornton was available, where as Tavares’ name has been talked about for the last ~16 months, and San Jose is a team whose name has constantly came up. Various insiders have linked San Jose to Tavares, DW has plenty of cap space available, and it really doesn’t look like Tavares will return to the Islanders.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

We all know our chances of signing Tavares are hovering just so slightly above zero it isn't worth mentioning. It's fun to daydream. If it happens, we'll all be Thornton was just traded from Boston to San Jose shocked.

No, we won't and frankly we shouldn't be. The Sharks went to the final only 2 seasons ago. They looked very good until injuries handicapped them in the playoffs. They easily have the makings of a team that can compete for the cup and have shown that they are aggressively pursuing the cup with their signings and trades each season. They are in a market that loves them, they have franchise stability, a great locker room, and the cap space to spend. A great goalie (when healthy), a norris trophy winning Defenseman, depth over all but especially at center and wing so he wouldn't feel like he has to carry the team and he would get very good line mates on day one. Throw him out with Donskoi and Meier on Day 1 and see what happens. These are literally all the things Tavares is supposedly seeking and many of the reasons he is likely to leave the dumpster fire that is the Islanders. Also, numerous news outlets have repeatedly linked him to San Jose including ESPN. There were no advance articles about Jumbo coming to SJ back in the day. The Sharks odds of signing him are as good as any other team that meets all those requirements.

I don’t think it’ll be anywhere near that level of shock. Nobody even knew Thornton was available, where as Tavares’ name has been talked about for the last ~16 months, and San Jose is a team whose name has constantly came up. Various insiders have linked San Jose to Tavares, DW has plenty of cap space available, and it really doesn’t look like Tavares will return to the Islanders.

If Tavares was going to play of the Islanders next season the contract would already be done. It's not about the money. Pretty sure his current team can sign him for the extra 8th year while everyone else can only do 7. The cap experts here would know that rule better than I though.

Besides, Meier’s shooting percentage went way up after that first 22 game stretch in which he had 2 goals and was generally bad. If you take out that stretch (2 goals on 55 shots) he shot 12.5% on the rest of the year, which is much, much better than Kane’s career 9.1%. Meier was a high-volume shoot-from-anywhere type of player, but his shot selection improved drastically after that 22 game mark. We all watched it happen.

Here you go cherry picking away again. Now you're comparing Kanes 6 or 7 years with mostly shitty teams where he apparently had problems with teammates to Meiers 2nd half of the season when he played in the top 6 with what is likely better linemates in a much better atmosphere. Also your contention about Kane taking lots of shots so "he's not a sniper". Pretty sure that's your word. Some of us touted him only as a goal scorer. His even strength goal scoring support that premise. Generating lots of shots is frankly a great trait to have. It increases the chances of scoring for himself as well as line mates thru rebounds most of the time. Isn't a large part of the advance stat thing based on that premise? Let's see how his shot selection goes when getting more coaching from the staff that got Meier to apparently change his selection. It's fine if you don't want them to sign him and if you don't like him for whatever reason. I see a player whose best seasons are still ahead of him if put in the right situation which can be SJ. I think his stats will also likely take a huge jump if he re-signs due to his time with the Sharks personnel on the power play. All we've seen is a cup of coffee. If he gets a training camp to really meld with the system and team I think he can excell in SJ.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

One thing I haven't really seen in all the back and forth about Kane as far as Salary... The cap is higher than it was when Pavs and Couture signed 6mil per deals which were home town deals that also included no trade clauses which reduced the salary to a certain degree. If they signed those this offseason at that point in their career they would likely get 6.5 or 7mil per season. Call it inflation. So Kane getting 6-7mil per season for 6 years as a full fledged UFA should be expected. If the Sharks are pursuing him that's likely where the bar starts. If I was Kan'e agent I wouldn't even return a phone call to a team offering 5.5mil or 4 years etc.

 

[Friday]

One thing I haven't really seen in all the back and forth about Kane as far as Salary... The cap is higher than it was when Pavs and Couture signed 6mil per deals which were home town deals that also included no trade clauses which reduced the slurry to a certain degree. If they signed those this offseason at that point in their career they would likely get 6.5 or 7mil per season. Call it inflation. Those were home town deals to a certain degree because if either player hit UFA back then they would have gotten at least 7 from another team. So Kane getting 6-7mil per season for 6 years as a full fledged UFA should be expected and if the Sharks are pursuing him that's likely where the bar starts. If I was Kan'e agent I wouldn't even return a phone call to a team offering 5.5mil or 4 years etc.

I think he probably takes 6M if its 5+ years

 

[tiburon12]

One thing I haven't really seen in all the back and forth about Kane as far as Salary... The cap is higher than it was when Pavs and Couture signed 6mil per deals which were home town deals that also included no trade clauses which reduced the salary to a certain degree. If they signed those this offseason at that point in their career they would likely get 6.5 or 7mil per season. Call it inflation. So Kane getting 6-7mil per season for 6 years as a full fledged UFA should be expected. If the Sharks are pursuing him that's likely where the bar starts. If I was Kan'e agent I wouldn't even return a phone call to a team offering 5.5mil or 4 years etc.

i feel like this gets oft overlooked. The cap increases basically every year, and does so significantly. cap has increased roughly 16% in from 2013 until now. Extrapolating out, that means the cap will be roughly 87mil in 5 years. 6mil isnt that significant at that cap.

A better way, though no one does this because its impossible to get the accurate cap numbers for future years, is to think about deals in terms of % to cap as the deal goes on.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Here you go cherry picking away again. Now you're comparing Kanes 6 or 7 years with mostly ****ty teams where he apparently had problems with teammates to Meiers 2nd half of the season when he played in the top 6 with what is likely better linemates in a much better atmosphere. Also your contention about Kane taking lots of shots so "he's not a sniper". Pretty sure that's your word. Some of us touted him only as a goal scorer. His even strength goal scoring support that premise. Generating lots of shots is frankly a great trait to have. It increases your chances of scoring for himself as well as line mates thru rebounds most of the time. Isn't a large part of the advance stat thing based on that premise? Let's see how his shot selection goes when getting more coaching from the staff that got Meier to apparently change his selection. It's fine if you don't want them to sign him and if you don't like him for whatever reason. I see a player whose best seasons are still ahead of him if put in the right situation which can be SJ. I think his stats will also likely take a huge jump if he re-signs due to his time with the Sharks personnel on the power play. All we've seen is a cup of coffee. If he gets a training camp to really meld with the system and team I think he can excell in SJ.

I knew you’d say something about “cherry-picking” Meier’s stats, as though a 21 year old taking a huge step forward in his development isn’t a note-worthy cutoff point.

I also never said the word “sniper”. I said Kane is not a “finisher”. When a player is called a “good finisher”, that would imply that they finish on a higher percentages of their scoring opportunities than the average player. Kane does not do that. I also never said there was anything wrong with volume shooters; I just said that Kane is not a finisher, specifically because someone else claimed he was. Kane is also not a 21 year old in his second ever NHL season. You cannot expect Kane to change his game as drastically as a young, malleable, developing player like Meier. You don’t sign a player for $7M and say, “hey, could you please drastically change your defining feature?”. Additionally, Kane is garbo on the PP and has been his entire career. He didn’t score a single PP point with us despite getting a lot of time on the first unit.

We’ll just have to agree to disagree. I don’t see any of the potential you do.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

I knew you’d say something about “cherry-picking” Meier’s stats, as though a 21 year old taking a huge step forward in his development isn’t a note-worthy cutoff point.

I also never said the word “sniper”. I said Kane is not a “finisher”. When a player is called a “good finisher”, that would imply that they finish on a higher percentages of their scoring opportunities than the average player. Kane does not do that. I also never said there was anything wrong with volume shooters; I just said that Kane is not a finisher, specifically because someone else claimed he was. Kane is also not a 21 year old in his second ever NHL season. You cannot expect Kane to change his game as drastically as a young, malleable, developing player like Meier. You don’t sign a player for $7M and say, “hey, could you please drastically change your defining feature?”. Additionally, Kane is garbo on the PP and has been his entire career. He didn’t score a single PP point with us despite getting a lot of time on the first unit.

We’ll just have to agree to disagree. I don’t see any of the potential you do.

You're correct... "finisher". Point still stands. He is a goal scorer. His efforts produce goals. Last I looked he is better at that than most of the Sharks roster. Were there any Sharks on that list that had more even strength goals than him? Also he scored 2 PP goals in the playoffs when it mattered. Shot selection isn't a drastic change especially considering he's only 26. That's still a kid with lot's of room for growth. Considering the tools he's starting with the rest is the easy part.

 

[T0uGh C0oki3]

If we miss out on Tavares, should we offer sheet Sam Reinhart ?

I am not saying they are the same, but Sam Reinhart could very well end up as a 1C, he could be a solid consolation prize.

As for Buffalo's matching our offer, that's another story..........

 

[Sharksrule04]

I... literally have not “changed my tune” on Kane at all... this is literally been my opinion all along...

But please. If you think no one has ever crapped on Meier for his shot selection, you must have missed like, a whole year of discussion.

We do not know how good the Sharks will be next year. Giving up a 1st round pick a year in advance is moronic. Remember in November 2015 when we were like fourth last in the league and Boston had our unprotected 1st? That was awful.

Not sure why you're so defensive, I didn't say "Jux" in my post nor was I insinuating you changed your tune. At the end of the season most people here were basically saying Kane is the savior. Then 2-3 weeks later most seem to not want him back. I find it hilarious how quick people flip-flop.

In regards to the first round pick, anyone who knew anything about the Sharks knew that first rounder we traded to Boston for Jones was likely going to be in the high teens or low 20's. I was a full supporter of that Jones trade and there was plenty of chat here with expectations of the Sharks making the playoffs. The Sharks weren't a bottom 10 team on paper and the moves they made that off-season set them up for a strong follow up season which clearly ended up happening. So was Jones worth the 29th pick? Yes and Jones wasn't even a known commodity like Kane is. The pick we would be giving to Buffalo is lottery protected. If the Sharks do in fact suck next year which I think the team has proven they won't, but if they did the pick would slide to the following season.

Many Sharks fans (including myself) frequently complain about our first round pick usage but then they over value the crap out of our first round picks. You can't have it both ways. If you think we will get a 25-30 goal scorer with that pick fine, but if you are going to say Kane isn't worth losing a first round pick instead of a 2nd round pick and then complain about every first round pick we make, you're not being consistent. Draft picks beyond the top 10 are basically playing the lottery. My main concern with signing Kane are term and contract. I couldn't care less about the 30 spots we move in the draft because in all honesty we're likely drafting in the 18-24 range and taking a safe 2 way forward. I have basically zero faith we're going to get a player of Kane's caliber in the range we'll likely be drafting. The draft is my single favorite day in the hockey calendar but the fact is the chances of getting a star in the 20's is a lot lower than everyone seems to believe.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Again, with few suitors, I can see him staying on a longer term deal for less. Sake of the argument, let's say 4.5-5 M per.

He will get at least $6.5 a year.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Additionally, Kane is garbo on the PP and has been his entire career. He didn’t score a single PP point with us despite getting a lot of time on the first unit. .

He was on the 2nd unit for most of all the last 10 games. I think I posted at least once in every game "Kane needs to be on the 1st unit".