World Cup: 2016 World Cup — Team Canada (Part III)

[TT1]

btw, is something up with Weber? he missed 2 practices so far.. that Kesler check has me worried

 

[CrypTic]

Yeah.

I feel like Thornton would be a better fit on the Toews line, and Stamkos would be a better fit on the '4th' line.

Or they could have just left the Toews line alone, since they were dominating everybody in their path in possession.

Ah well. It's the CZE. I'm not particularly worried.

I think Thornton would be a better fit on the Toews line than Perry too. A great playmaker could help Toews and Couture score and Thornton is excellent defensively and possession wise so should fit their shut down duties. I also think Perry would do well with ROR.

Im glad that they're trying Tavares and Stamkos together. If it doesn't work, it's easy enough to switch them back again or try a different configuration.

 

[Osprey]

Is Muzzin injured or something? He's the 7th dman against CZE. Makes the dmen selections to exclude BOTH Letang and Subban even more mind moggling.

Babcock played him one game and, I think, realized that he's not all that he's hyped to be. They picked him for the team because they thought that he and Doughty were a star tandem, not understanding that Doughty is the star and works wonders with the stats of every partner that he has (see McNabb last season). It shows a misunderstanding of Doughty to think that he would play better with a familiar face like Muzzin than an actual star defenseman like Letang or Subban. I'm pretty sure that Doughty had never played before with his partners in Vancouver and Sochi, and look at how well both of those worked out. This was just a bad selection that they have to live with it now and hope that things work out, anyways.

 

[Magua]

Babcock played him one game and, I think, realized that he's not all that he's hyped to be. They picked him for the team because they thought that he and Doughty were a star tandem, not understanding that Doughty is the star and works wonders with the stats of every partner that he has (see McNabb last season). It shows a misunderstanding of Doughty to think that he would play better with a familiar face like Muzzin than an actual star defenseman like Letang or Subban. I'm pretty sure that Doughty had never played before with his partners in Vancouver and Sochi, and look at how well both of those worked out. This was just a bad selection that they have to live with it now and hope that things work out, anyways.

Letang and Subban are RHD so they were never going to be Doughty's partner. And certainly JayBo is a better option than Muzzin

Doughty is a special player, but you're minimizing Muzzin here. He has been a damned good player with or without Doughty, like this past season where they spent most of the year apart. For some reason we mere mortals cannot understand, Babcock determined in the first game of the pre-pre season that Muzzin was not good enough. Seems like a good sample size to me. They outshot the other team 15-8 on the ice together and outscored USA 2-1 on-ice too which is the odd part. Canada only scored 2 goals. Petro is on the ice for 3 goals against, 0 for and was one of Canada's worst d men, but he gets a mulligan. Honestly, it wouldn't shock me if Babcock just wanted to get his boy JayBo in there. He's the kind of guy who doesn't stray far from his comfort level. Rapport and all.

 

[drewstar]

We are missing Keith, no-one waltzes the puck out of the zone with such panache.i

Our defensive pairings don't look right.

This is our projected pairings tonight:

Pietrangelo - Burns
Vlasic - Weber
Bouwmeester - Doughty
Muzzin

Ideally with the current injuries:

Brodie - Doughty
Giordano - Letang
Vlasic - Burns
Subban

 

[Barrie22]

This is our projected pairings tonight:

Pietrangelo - Burns
Vlasic - Weber
Bouwmeester - Doughty
Muzzin

Ideally with the current injuries:

Brodie - Doughty
Giordano - Letang
Vlasic - Burns
Subban

Vlasic and burns do not work good together.

 

[Osprey]

Letang and Subban are RHD so they were never going to be Doughty's partner. And certainly JayBo is a better option than Muzzin

Doughty is a special player, but you're minimizing Muzzin here. He has been a damned good player with or without Doughty, like this past season where they spent most of the year apart. For some reason we mere mortals cannot understand, Babcock determined in the first game of the pre-pre season that Muzzin was not good enough. Seems like a good sample size to me. They outshot the other team 15-8 on the ice together and outscored USA 2-1 on-ice too which is the odd part. Canada only scored 2 goals. Petro is on the ice for 3 goals against, 0 for and was one of Canada's worst d men, but he gets a mulligan. Honestly, it wouldn't shock me if Babcock just wanted to get his boy JayBo in there. He's the kind of guy who doesn't stray far from his comfort level. Rapport and all.

I'm minimizing him because I'm saying that he's not as good as people think. That's my point. Would a "damned good player" have the worst 5-on-5 SV% (the goaltender's SV% when he's on the ice) of all regular defensemen on his team two years running? In fact, after being separated from him, Doughty's SV% shot up, while Muzzin stayed last, suggesting that Muzzin was dragging him down. Bouwmeester, in comparison, has been 2nd on his team in the stat two years running. He may not be great, but he's a better defender than Muzzin, who is an offensive specialist. After losing 4-2 in the first game against the USA, Babcock probably decided that he needed to shore up the defense, even if that might sacrifice some offense.

 

[JaegerDice]

I'm minimizing him because I'm saying that he's not as good as people think. That's my point. Would a "damned good player" have the worst 5-on-5 SV% (the goaltender's SV% when he's on the ice) of all regular defensemen on his team two years running? In fact, after being separated from him, Doughty's SV% shot up, while Muzzin stayed last, suggesting that Muzzin was dragging him down. Bouwmeester, in comparison, has been 2nd on his team in the stat two years running. He may not be great, but he's a better defender than Muzzin, who is an offensive specialist. After losing 4-2 in the first game against the USA, Babcock probably decided that he needed to shore up the defense, even if that might sacrifice some offense.

Defencemen do not impact SV%. They can impact GA by limiting shots and scoring chances, but there's no evidence that dmen have any consistent, sustainable impact on the goalies save percentage.


Here's one conveniently recent article on the matter:
http://www.tsn.ca/defencemen-and-their-impact-on-team-save-percentage-1.567469

 

[DearDiary]

Defencemen do not impact SV%. They can impact GA by limiting shots and scoring chances, but there's no evidence that dmen have any consistent, sustainable impact on the goalies save percentage.


Here's one conveniently recent article on the matter:
http://www.tsn.ca/defencemen-and-their-impact-on-team-save-percentage-1.567469

The only way defensemen can affect SV% is by clearing out net crashers. Basically giving the goalie a clear line of sight to see the puck in high danger situations. I think big guys like Chara can have some impact, over guys like Doughty and Weber

 

[Osprey]

Defencemen do not impact SV%. They can impact GA by limiting shots and scoring chances, but there's no evidence that dmen have any consistent, sustainable impact on the goalies save percentage.


Here's one conveniently recent article on the matter:
http://www.tsn.ca/defencemen-and-their-impact-on-team-save-percentage-1.567469

Naturally, defensemen impact SV%. As the last line of defense, their play impacts shot quality, and shot quality impacts SV%. The average goaltender SV% in shootouts is about .700. Every shot is high quality, so SV% suffers. Now, imagine putting one defender out there. It would improve a lot, right? A defenseman who is in position is going to reduce shot quality, which will improve SV%. Muzzin is a risky defenseman who pinches, jumps into the play, gets beaten easily and roams away from his goaltender, and all of those things increase shot quality because he's not there to reduce it. Shots and chances against are low with Muzzin on the ice, because he's on the attack so much, but the shots and chances that do come are higher in quality because he's out of position when they do.

That article is a good read, but the author offers one example of a player whose SV% was all over the map. I'm not familiar with the Islanders, but it's quite possible that Hamonic had different partners, different goaltenders, different coaches and different healthinesses in each of those years. Muzzin has had the same coach, same goaltender and same health for the last few years and the only difference has been the partner, which I account for. So, in this case, enough has stayed consistent to draw a conclusion, IMO, especially when it checks out against what I would expect to observe and have observed.

 

[JaegerDice]

That's only one article. I linked it because it was recent.

There's plenty of articles on the subject.

There is not a single defencemen in the NHL that has demonstrated a sustainable impact on goalie sv%. There is some evidence that systems (ie, team-wide play) can impact sv% sustainably.

Shot quality comes out in the wash. For example, a point shot heading wide that ricochets off a stick and goes in is both a poor quality shot and, by definition, the best quality shot (a goal).

A goalie is only going to stop anywhere between 90 and 95% of shots he faces on the vast majority of nights. The percentage of goals that go in from low, medium, and high danger scoring areas are relatively consistent across the league.

Again, dmen can impact goals against by limiting shots against, but can't impact the percentage of shots that get through that are saved.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The other thing with Muzzin is people say 'well look how good he still was away from Doughty' while realizing that not only does that mean he's not playing 28 minutes a game, he's also playing 2nd pairing minutes vs. softer competition, and still putting up lesser numbers. Shows how good Doughty is, as Osprey is pointing out.

I still think Muzzin is a damn good #2 defenseman--one of the best--and a decent-to-good #1 given the chance, but he's an example of how people misuse advanced stats because you really need to watch him to see his flaws as he looks unstoppable on paper. edit: flaws--he REALLY struggles with agile players, like Duchene, who makes Muzzin look junior varsity. He still has the propensity for the really bad turnover, which doesn't look bad in advanced stats because hey, he put up tons of shots for (and conversely this is why Osprey is pointing out his on ice save percentage, I believe--he has some really egregious turnovers that lead to insane scoring chances). And though he's stout defensively, he's not agile himself, so if he DOES get caught out of position, he's probably not recovering. He's absolutely minimized these issues over time, but they could be magnified in a tournament where EVERYONE is skilled.

All of that being said, he was one of the best options at LHD, so it is what it is. I'm only pointing out his issues above. There's obviously a lot he does REALLY well on both sides of the ice.

 

[Osprey]

There is not a single defencemen in the NHL that has demonstrated a sustainable impact on goalie sv%. There is some evidence that systems (ie, team-wide play) can impact sv% sustainably.

If systems can impact SV%, then it stands to reason that how well the individuals execute those systems also can.

A goalie is only going to stop anywhere between 90 and 95% of shots he faces on the vast majority of nights. The percentage of goals that go in from low, medium, and high danger scoring areas are relatively consistent across the league.

Naturally, that's what you'd expect to see in a salary cap league with a high level of parity when you average all goals out. That doesn't mean that they're consistent from player to player.

Again, dmen can impact goals against by limiting shots against, but can't impact the percentage of shots that get through that are saved.

Sure they can. For example, they can force a player wide, so that he's shooting on net at a sharper angle. The goaltender has less of the net that he needs to cover, so it's an easier (low danger) save. That's certainly preferable to the defenseman falling down or getting deked so that the shooter is able to come down the slot all alone, which is a much harder (high danger) save to make.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

btw, is something up with Weber? he missed 2 practices so far.. that Kesler check has me worried

Over 20 minutes in the game today. He should be ok. Only DD had more

 

[Sky04]

J-bo has looked rock solid this tournament. Great addition, he makes smart plays, doesn't do anything stupid and just plays the supporting role to perfection.

Vlasic has looked bad.

 

[domiwroze]

made this real quick ...

With no player actually in the 23NA roster

Team Canada Projected Lineup, TEAM A

Brad Marchand - Sidney Crosby - Patrice Bergeron
Logan Couture - Jonathan Toews - Corey Perry
Wayne Simmonds - Ryan Johansen - Jeff Carter
Mark Stone - Claude Giroux - Mike Hoffman

Marc-Edouard Vlasic - Drew Doughty
Alex Pietrangelo - P.K Subban
Jake Muzzin - Tyson Barrie

Carey Price
Brian Elliot
Martin Jones


Team Canada Projected Lineup, TEAM B

Tyler Seguin - Jamie Benn - Taylor Hall
John Tavares - Ryan Getzlaf - Steven Stamkos
Joe Thornton - Ryan O'Reilly - Matt Duchene
Jonathan Huberdeau - Tyler Toffoli - Brayden Schenn

Duncan Keith - Shea Weber
Jay Bouwmeester - Brent Burns
Mark Giordano - Kristopher Letang

Braden Holtby
Corey Crawford
Steve Mason

 

[amitkedia]

Was thinking of writing this paragraph for the last few hours. Here is it now finally:

Unsung Hero of Game 1 – Brad Marchand
He’s called “the little ball of hate” by many hockey fans but Canada is starting to fall in love with him now. Brad Marchand was a late addition to the Team Canada roster last spring but is paying big dividends already. He is slotted on the top line with Sidney Crosby and Patrice Bergeron, two superstars in the NHL. But consider what he did in Game 1. With second left in the first period, he didn’t stop skating. He picked up the puck on the half wall and made nifty little dish over to Bruins’ linemate Bergeron who fired it in the net with 7 seconds to go. Marchand made that play happen. Same with Canada’s second goal. He skillfully deflected the puck which required perfect hand-eye coordination to execute. He finished the night with 3 points. So while the stars get all the attention, and deservedly so, it’s the skilled grinders that can make things happen. He won at the junior level, he won the Stanley Cup, and now he could be an integral part of a World Cup Championship team.

 

[snailderby]

Sort of off-topic, but I just noticed this today.

Doughty's point totals from the last three seasons: 37, 46, 51
Pietrangelo's point totals from the last three seasons: 51, 46, 37

 

[Le Tricolore]

Has it been announced which goalie is playing which game? I assume Price plays vs USA and then Holtby or Crawford play vs Europe?

 

[Scotty B]

Has it been announced which goalie is playing which game? I assume Price plays vs USA and then Holtby or Crawford play vs Europe?

Probably just stick with Price throughout...unless he falters...looked good vs Czechs...might be Sochi all over again, where Carey just shuts the door, albeit with more goal support...

 

[Frank Drebin]

Has it been announced which goalie is playing which game? I assume Price plays vs USA and then Holtby or Crawford play vs Europe?

I would have thought it would be Price from here on out, or until he seives.

 

[FrankMTL]

I would have thought it would be Price from here on out, or until he seives.

Normally in a back to back, you want to give your number 1 goalie a rest. In the last Olympics, Luongo played the second of back to back games against Austria and Norway. I wouldn't be surprised if Babcock went with Price against the USA and Holtby against Team Europe.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Normally in a back to back, you want to give your number 1 goalie a rest. In the last Olympics, Luongo played the second of back to back games against Austria and Norway. I wouldn't be surprised if Babcock went with Price against the USA and Holtby against Team Europe.

I didn't realize there were back to back games scheduled. You're probably right of that's the case, although it looks like Holtby is #3 right now?

 

[Curufinwe]

The other thing with Muzzin is people say 'well look how good he still was away from Doughty' while realizing that not only does that mean he's not playing 28 minutes a game, he's also playing 2nd pairing minutes vs. softer competition, and still putting up lesser numbers. Shows how good Doughty is, as Osprey is pointing out.

I still think Muzzin is a damn good #2 defenseman--one of the best--and a decent-to-good #1 given the chance, but he's an example of how people misuse advanced stats because you really need to watch him to see his flaws as he looks unstoppable on paper. edit: flaws--he REALLY struggles with agile players, like Duchene, who makes Muzzin look junior varsity. He still has the propensity for the really bad turnover, which doesn't look bad in advanced stats because hey, he put up tons of shots for (and conversely this is why Osprey is pointing out his on ice save percentage, I believe--he has some really egregious turnovers that lead to insane scoring chances). And though he's stout defensively, he's not agile himself, so if he DOES get caught out of position, he's probably not recovering. He's absolutely minimized these issues over time, but they could be magnified in a tournament where EVERYONE is skilled.

All of that being said, he was one of the best options at LHD, so it is what it is. I'm only pointing out his issues above. There's obviously a lot he does REALLY well on both sides of the ice.

Great post.

 

[Wondercarrot]

2 things:

Crosby is still easily the best player on earth.
Tavares is Canada's 2nd best player. Good lord he's amazing.