Prospect Info: 2016 Leafs Board Prospect Ranking #18

[Stringer Bell]

To be fair saying someone is missing that extra gear is kind of ridiculously broad. I mean, if Leivo had an extra gear we would be arguing for him as a top 5 prospect...not arguing for him at number 18...

 

[Joey Hoser]

I want to apologize to fellow HFers if my posts/opinions have offended them. It seems like I've offended Stringer Bell, and possibly other posters. This isn't my train of thought, and I can see how my opinions/posts could be interpreted the wrong way.

There were many prospects I was hoping to draft in the second round, and Grundstrom was one of them. I figured we wouldn't have had a shot at him in the late 2nd TBH.

I have also been vocal in recent years in that I don't see what other fans see in Leivo. I don't deny he could make the NHL, he definately has an NHL caliber shot, but it seems to me like he's just missing that extra gear. I could be wrong, I'm not denying that.

But one thing I think we can all agree on is that our future is looking bright! It would be great if 7 or 8 of our current prospects can pan out into impact NHL players.

I think you are just overrating how overrated you think he is. Again, we're at number 18 here. This is the territory of non-prospects and when people usually stop voting in these because it doesn't matter anymore.

If there was anything resembling "love" for the guy he'd ha e been picked long ago.

 

[bobermay]

To be fair saying someone is missing that extra gear is kind of ridiculously broad. I mean, if Leivo had an extra gear we would be arguing for him as a top 5 prospect...not arguing for him at number 18...

Fair enough. I've been more specific in previous posts in the last couple of threads, but didn't want to reiterate my opinions and beat the subject to depth (it probably has been already). I don't want to come across as a Leivo hater or anything, because I am rooting for the guy, like any other Leafs prospect.

I also think Grundstrom should have been voted long before 18, whereas I have Leivo not far from 18... so I'm not arguing that 18 is a bad place for Leivo to be ranked in these polls.

 

[embracedbias]

If you look at the past polls from past years, there is usually 2-4 NHL players in the entire list and the rest were relatively equal failures.

Complaining about picls in the teens and pushing 20 is just complaining about nothing. What's happening now is like being upset about Robbie Earl being selected before Chad Rau or Tyler Ruegsegger.

Things are a bit different this year because our top 3 are 100% sure-fire NHLers. And we certainly have more than 1 NHLer from #4 on.

Spring 2008 hockey's future
1. (1) Justin Pogge, G, 21
2. (3) Nikolai Kulemin, RW, 21
3. (2) Jiri Tlusty, LW, 20
4. (5) Anton Stralman, D, 22
5. (7) Dimitri Vorobiev, D, 22
6. (4) Robbie Earl, LW, 22
7. (9) Tyler Ruegsegger, C, 20
8. (8) Dale Mitchell, RW, 19
9. (10) James Reimer, G, 20
10. (11) Matt Frattin, RW, 20
11. (20) Chris DiDomenico, C, 19
12. (12) Ben Winnett, LW, 19
13. (16) Chad Rau, C, 21
14. (17) John Mitchell, C, 23
15. (6) Jeremy Williams, RW, 24
16. (13) Phil Oreskovic, D, 21
17. (19) Juraj Mikus, D, 19
18. (NR) Korbinian Holzer, D, 20
19. (NR) Viktor Stalberg, LW, 22
20. (NR) Alex Foster, LW, 24

Spring 2009 hockey's future
1. Luke Schenn, D 8.5 B
2. Nikolai Kulemin, LW 7.5 C
3. Justin Pogge, G 7.0 C
4. Dmitri Vorobiev, D 7.0 C
5. Mikhail Stefanovich, C 7.0 C
6. Jimmy Hayes, RW 7.0 C
7. Chris DiDomenico, C 7.5 D
8. Viktor Stalberg, LW 7.5 D
9. Chad Rau, C 7.0 D
10. Dale Mitchell, RW 6.5 C
11. James Reimer, G 6.5 C
12. Ben Winnett, LW 6.5 C
13. Matt Frattin, RW 7.0 D
14. John Mitchell, C 6.5 C
15. Ryan Hamilton, LW 6.0 C
16. Joel Champagne C 6.0 C
17. Phil Oreskovic, D 6.0 C
18. Tyler Ruegsegger, RW 6.5 D
19. Jerome Flaake, LW 6.5 D
20. Korbinian Holzer, D 6.5 D

Spring 2010 hockey's future
1. (1) Nazem Kadri, C
2. (2) Jonas Gustavsson, G
3. (4) Tyler Bozak, C
4. (18) Carl Gunnarsson, D
5. (5) Viktor Stalberg, LW
6. (NR) Keith Aulie, D
7. (6) Jimmy Hayes, RW
8. (8) Jesse Blacker, D
9. (11) James Reimer, G
10. (10) Christian Hanson, C
11. (13) Jerry D’Amigo, LW
12. (3) Mikhail Stefanovich, RW
13. (9) Chris DiDomenico, C
14. (NR) Philippe Paradis, LW
15. (7) Kenny Ryan, RW
16. (NR) Juraj Mikus, D
17. (NR) Korbinian Holzer, D
18. (14) Phil Oreskovic, D
19. (15) Jerome Flaake, LW
20. (16) Matt Frattin, RW

2011 (Pronman) [couldn't find the hfboards list]
1. Joe Colborne, Center
2. Jake Gardiner, Defense
3. Jesse Blacker, Defense
4. Greg McKegg, Center
5. Stuart Percy, Defense
6. Marcel Mueller, Left Wing
7. Jerry D'Amigo, Left Wing
8. Matt Frattin, Right Wing
9. Brad Ross, Left Wing
10. Sondre Olden, Left Wing

2012 hockey's future
1. (NR) Morgan Rielly, D, 8.5C
2. (1) Nazem Kadri, C, 7.5C
3. (3) Joe Colborne, C, 7.5C
4. (4) Jesse Blacker, D, 7.5C
5. (NR) Matt Finn, D, 7.0C
6. (6) Matt Frattin, RW, 7.0C
7. (9) Stuart Percy, D, 7.0C
8. (5) Carter Ashton, RW, 7.0C
9. (8) Tyler Biggs, RW, 7.0C
10. (10) Brad Ross, LW, 7.0C
11. (7) Greg McKegg, C, 7.0C
12. (11) Ben Scrivens, G, 6.5B
13. (12) Korbinian Holzer, D, 6.0B
14. (13) Mark Owuya, G, 7.0C
15. (14) Jerry D'Amigo, LW, 6.5C
16. (18) Nicolas Deschamps, LW, 6.5C
17. (NR) Spencer Abbott, C, 6.5C
18. (NR) Petter Granberg, D, 6.5C
19. (16) Josh Leivo, LW, 6.5C
20. (20) Jussi Rynnas, G, 7.0D

2013 hockey's future
1. (1) Morgan Rielly, D, 8.5C
2. (NR) Frederik Gauthier, C, 7.5C
3. (2) Joe Colborne, C, 7.0C
4. (8) Josh Leivo, 7.0C
5. (3) Matt Finn, D, 7.0C
6. (7) Stuart Percy, D, 7.0C
7. (4) Carter Ashton, RW, 6.5C
8. (5) Jesse Blacker, D, 6.5C
9. (9) Jerry D'Amigo, LW, 6.5C
10. (6) Tyler Biggs, RW, 6.5C
11. (10) Greg McKegg, C, 6.5C
12. (13) Petter Granberg, D, 6.5C
13. (11) Brad Ross, LW, 6.5C
14. (15) Dominic Toninato, C, 6.5C
15. (14) Tom Nilsson, D, 6.5C
16. (16) Tony Cameranesi, C, 6.5C
17. (NR) Carter Verhaeghe, C, 6.5C
18. (NR) Garret Sparks, G, 7.0D
19. (NR) David Broll, RW, 6.0C
20. (NR) Ryan Rupert, C, 6.0C

2014 hockey's future [stopped bolding... too early to tell]
1. (NR) William Nylander, C/W, 8.0C
2. (4) Josh Leivo, LW, 7.5C
3. (6) Matt Finn, D, 7.0C
4. (3) Frederik Gauthier, C, 7.0C
5. (8) Stuart Percy, D 7.0C
6. (5) Connor Brown, RW, 7.0C
7. (9) Carter Verhaeghe, C, 7.0C
8. (14) Andreas Johnson, RW, 7.0C
9. (10) Carter Ashton, LW, 6.5B
10. (NR) Rinat Valiev, D, 7.0C
11. (7) Greg McKegg, C, 7.0C
12. (13) Petter Granberg, D, 6.5C
13. (NR) Tom Nilsson, D, 6.5C
14. (NR) Viktor Loov, D, 6.5C
15. (11) Tyler Biggs, RW, 6.5C
16. (NR) Christopher Gibson, G, 6.5C
17. (18) Dominic Toninato, C, 6.5C
18. (20) Garret Sparks, G, 6.5C
19. (NR) Sam Carrick, C, 6.0C
20. (NR) Andrew MacWilliam, D, 6.0C

2015 hockey's future
1. (NR) Mitch Marner, C/RW, 8.5 C
2. (1) William Nylander, C/RW, 8.0 C
3. (NR) Kasperi Kapanen, RW, 7.5 C
4. (NR) Scott Harrington, D, 6.5 B
5. (6) Connor Brown, RW, 7.0 C
6. (5) Stuart Percy, D, 7.0 C
7. (NR) Antoine Bibeau, G, 7.0 C
8. (NR) Brendan Leipsic, LW, 7.0 C
9. (8) Andreas Johnson, LW, 7.0 C
10. (NR) Jeremy Bracco, RW, 7.5 D
11. (4) Frederik Gauthier, C, 6.5 C
12. (12) Petter Granberg, D, 6.5 C
13. (14) Viktor Loov, D, 6.5 C
14. (2) Josh Leivo, LW, 6.5 C
15. (NR) Travis Dermott, D, 7.0 D
16. (10) Rinat Valiev, D, 7.0 D
17. (NR) Nikita Soshnikov, RW, 7.0D
18. (NR) Zach Hyman, RW, 7.0 D
19. (NR) Casey Bailey, RW, 7.0 D
20. (19) Sam Carrick, C, 6.0 C

 

[htpwn]

Wait... so Hyman's actually going to drop between 2015 and 2016, despite exceeding most of our expectations since we got him for McKegg?

I don't know if that shows we've underrated him, or if our pool has just gotten that much better.

 

[bobermay]

Not sure if we ranked a goalie in our top 20 in 2011 (Mark Owuya? Riemer graduated?)

But every other year we had ranked at least one. Looks like that won't be happening this year.

 

[Big Easy]

How? No one on here has seen him play over a hand full of times... Those that know him as a player say he projects as a third line player... Hyman can be a third liner, but is likely a fourth liner, Leivo is a third line player and has shown it... Plus his chemistry with Nylander is great. His shot is top 3, if not top 2 on this whole prospect list.



If he gets traded from here after camp he's going to be a top nine player for someone else, like Colborne.

We used a 2nd round pick on him. He's 18, and the guys we are comparing him to are 23 and 24. Leivo may hit the waiver wire, and Hyman is a 24 year old, likely 4th line grinder. Which really isn't a hard player to acquire externally. Value wise, if we could only keep 1 out of these guys, it would be Carl G.

 

[Pholus]

Fair enough. I've been more specific in previous posts in the last couple of threads, but didn't want to reiterate my opinions and beat the subject to depth (it probably has been already). I don't want to come across as a Leivo hater or anything, because I am rooting for the guy, like any other Leafs prospect.

I also think Grundstrom should have been voted long before 18, whereas I have Leivo not far from 18... so I'm not arguing that 18 is a bad place for Leivo to be ranked in these polls.

I appreciate the work you put into making a list, and while I don't agree with your order, I can get a feel for what you value most in a prospect. You've also proven that you can be very reasonable as a poster, however, you are definitely going to take some heat when you post stuff like:

It blows my mind how underrated this draft is by leafs fans. Grundstrom is a CONSESUS TOP 40 selection. Has already represented Sweden at the WJC. Plays a gritty two-way game.

What is not to like?? Should have been voted in LOOOOOOOOOONNGGG Ago

If Grundstrom was a consensus top 40 pick, then he fell at least 17 spots from where he was expected to go. I'm sure there are other poster who would look at that and think about previous 'fallers' the Leafs have picked up (like Matt Finn maybe), and start to wonder why he fell.

You seem to rate Grundstrom much higher than Leivo, when they seem (to me at least) to be very similar prospects (although Grundstrom is probably ~4 yrs behind in development). Projected 3rd liners with a little bit of potential to be a top 6 fwd, maybe Grundstrom is a bit more gritty, and his skating seems to be better overall, but Leivo has a better shot and has proven that he can score in the NHL. It's possible that neither become NHLers, but it seems to be that you are underrating Leivo & his tools based on Grundstrom being younger (and therefore still having the 'potential' for an exponential amount of development to become an elite player).

 

[bobermay]

I appreciate the work you put into making a list, and while I don't agree with your order, I can get a feel for what you value most in a prospect. You've also proven that you can be very reasonable as a poster, however, you are definitely going to take some heat when you post stuff like:



If Grundstrom was a consensus top 40 pick, then he fell at least 17 spots from where he was expected to go. I'm sure there are other poster who would look at that and think about previous 'fallers' the Leafs have picked up (like Matt Finn maybe), and start to wonder why he fell.

You seem to rate Grundstrom much higher than Leivo, when they seem (to me at least) to be very similar prospects (although Grundstrom is probably ~4 yrs behind in development). Projected 3rd liners with a little bit of potential to be a top 6 fwd, maybe Grundstrom is a bit more gritty, and his skating seems to be better overall, but Leivo has a better shot and has proven that he can score in the NHL. It's possible that neither become NHLers, but it seems to be that you are underrating Leivo & his tools based on Grundstrom being younger (and therefore still having the 'potential' for an exponential amount of development to become an elite player).

IIRC, Finn wasn't that much of a faller. He was drafted where he was projected to go. (I could be wrong). Anyways, I don't think "dropping 17 spots" is a big concern. If anything, a major reason why he "draft stock dropped" was because he was playing protected minutes in a mens league. Anyways, different teams will have completely different rankings. It was documented prior to this draft that from about 22-60, that the picks could be interchangable. At the end of the day, Hunter goes under the philosophy of drafting the best player available, and I trust Hunter's judgement.

Now I don't really see that much of a comparison to Leivo and Grundstrom. I think Grundstrom has shown much more at the same age while playing with men:

17 Year Old Season
Leivo Draft Year (Season + Playoffs): 72 GP, 19G, 43P 41 PIM in OHL
Grundstrom D-1 (Season + Playoffs): 31 GP, 25G, 42P, 55 PIM in SuperElit
Grundstrom D-1 (Season + Playoffs): 25 GP, 2G, 5P, 8 PIM in SHL

18 Year Old Season
Leivo D+1 (Season + Playoffs): 70GP, 34G, 76P, 67 PIM in OHL
Grunstrom Draft Year (Season + Playoffs): 56GP, 8G, 20P, 59 PIM in SHL

Grundstrom has shown well at the U18, and played at the world juniors as an underager. Leivo has not played international competition.

What is really impressive though is the SuperElit stats that I bolded. 1.35 PPG in his U18 season puts him in elite swedish company. 23rd all-time.
http://www.eliteprospects.com/leagu...&leagueteam=&sort=u18&nation=&name=&order=PPG