2016 Draft Thread IV – Host: Buffalo – Pick: 8th

[Woodhouse]

On June 24-25, Buffalo will host the 2016 Draft at FNC. Ticket distribution plans and other details are TBA. Here are some links to get you started:

• NHL DRAFT CENTER 2016
• FC releases Prelim Ranking for 2016 NHL Draft
• Futures List indicates great depth for 2016 NHL Draft
• Jost, Fabbro put 2016 NHL draft spotlight on BCHL’s Penticton Vees
• 2016 NHL Draft: Matthews, Chychrun head preseason list of North American prospects
• 2016 NHL Draft Rankings: War Room Preliminary Top 60
• 2016 NHL Draft: Big Finns Puljujarvi, Laine amongst top 2016 European prospects
• 2016 NHL Draft: OHL Players to Watch
• Matthews to play for ZSC Lions
• Tyler Benson Set for Big Season with Giants
• Jakob Chychrun Is As Good As Advertised
• 2016 NHL Draft: Most Intriguing Prospects
• Julien Gauthier: WJC Standout and 2016 Draft Underdog
• Youngblood: Preliminary 2016 NHL Draft Rankings

Buffalo also hosts the USAH showcase again with the 2015 AAPG scheduled for September 24th at FNC.

First thread - http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1947575&page=41
Second thread - http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2036135&page=40
Third thread - http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2065623

Click to read more...

 

[Heraldic]

This "organisational need" thing has been way overblown here. I mean, there were actually posters willing to take Chychrun before Laine.

I absolutely hope they go BPA. We won't fix the LHD situation with the pick anyhow. It wasn't that long since our LHD situation was clearly best in our oganisation - now it's the weakest link. Philly drafted Giroux when they already got relatively young great centers in Richards and Carter. Didn't end up being a bad call...

And this "you wanna go the Edmonton route" is just pretty ridiculous. I mean, who actually think that going with Haydn Fleury instead of Draisaitl would have been a good call? That's the situation you easily could be if you emphasize too much "organisational" need.

I'm just happy that in this draft we seem to have the best players playing the position we lack the most. But if the management is confident that a player like Brown or Keller is the BPA there, I hope they pick one of them.

 

[N.Y. Orangeman]

This "organisational need" thing has been way overblown here. I mean, there were actually posters willing to take Chychrun before Laine.

I absolutely hope they go BPA. We won't fix the LHD situation with the pick anyhow. It wasn't that long since our LHD situation was clearly best in our oganisation - now it's the weakest link. Philly drafted Giroux when they already got relatively young great centers in Richards and Carter. Didn't end up being a bad call...

And this "you wanna go the Edmonton route" is just pretty ridiculous. I mean, who actually think that going with Haydn Fleury instead of Draisaitl would have been a good call? That's the situation you easily could be if you emphasize too much "organisational" need.

I'm just happy that in this draft we seem to have the best players playing the position we lack the most. But if the management is confident that a player like Brown or Keller is the BPA there, I hope they pick one of them.

This gets to the crux of the issue. Some people advocating BPA make the assumption that the difference between the BPA and the "need" is the difference between eight and six on scale of ten. If that is the case, I don't believe anyone here would support taking a six over an eight. If, however, the two in the same band and the difference is 8.3 and 8.1 while filling a significant organizational need, which I would submit is closer to the actual situation, a valid argument can be made for taking the 8.1.

 

[Ace]

This gets to the crux of the issue. Some people advocating BPA make the assumption that the difference between the BPA and the "need" is the difference between eight and six on scale of ten. If that is the case, I don't believe anyone here would support taking a six over an eight. If, however, the two in the same band and the difference is 8.3 and 8.1 while filling a significant organizational need, which I would submit is closer to the actual situation, a valid argument can be made for taking the 8.1.

It has become that out of whack here. The draft rankings we voted on show it. It's the only place left where Chychrun is seen as a worthwhile pick that high (4!) It's a group delusion set on by "organizational need".

He's closer to the 4th best d then he is the 4th best player.

Not here though.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

It has become that out of whack here. The draft rankings we voted on show it. It's the only place left where Chychrun is seen as a worthwhile pick that high (4!) It's a group delusion set on by "organizational need".

He's closer to the 4th best d then he is the 4th best player.

Not here though.

This is complete nonsense. The local Edminton paper had an article that basically says their GM is irresponsible (and worse) if he doesn't take Chychrun at 4. Most mock drafts also have them taking him or Juolevi at 4, but please, continue posting about your dumb conspiracy theory.

 

[truthbluth]

This is complete nonsense. The local Edminton paper had an article that basically says their GM is irresponsible (and worse) if he doesn't take Chychrun at 4. Most mock drafts also have them taking him or Juolevi at 4, but please, continue posting about your dumb conspiracy theory.

I'm not sure what you are talking about, but plenty of people doubt Chychrun's abilities. If they draft Chychrun or Joulevi ahead of people they have higher ranked in their board simply because of public pressure, then their management should all be fired. These are 18 year old kids. Any player they select at 4 is at least 2 years from being a major contributor (in all likelihood). What are they going to do, not bring in an NHL dman now because they drafted an 18 yr old?

 

[Jim Bob]

I'm not sure what you are talking about, but plenty of people doubt Chychrun's abilities. If they draft Chychrun or Joulevi ahead of people they have higher ranked in their board simply because of public pressure, then their management should all be fired. These are 18 year old kids. Any player they select at 4 is at least 2 years from being a major contributor (in all likelihood). What are they going to do, not bring in an NHL dman now because they drafted an 18 yr old?

http://www.tsn.ca/laine-closes-gap-on-matthews-atop-tsn-draft-rankings-1.478128

Here's why it's not easy to get consensus on the relative ranking of the defencemen.

Chychrun was the only defenceman to be ranked in anyone's top four prospects. One scout had him at No. 4 overall. But only four of the 10 scouts surveyed had him in their Top 10; six had him ranked 11th or lower. Worth noting, though, is that of the four scouts who ranked Chychrun in the Top 10, all four viewed him as the best defenceman in the draft.

In contrast, Juolevi’s highest rank was No. 5 overall, but nine of 10 scouts had him in their top 10. Two scouts had him ranked as the top D-man in the draft.
Sergachev’s highest rank was No. 6; seven of 10 scouts had him in their Top 10 but only two ranked him as the top defenceman in the draft.

There are certainly a range of opinions on Chychrun, Juolevi, and Sergachev.

Chychrun seems to be the most "love him or hate him" of the bunch.

And as far as talking heads influencing who NHL teams draft....



If Edmonton goes with a D as BPA at 4, it's likely that need influenced their board.

 

[stokes84]

So, Pronman's ranking has made me reconsider Clayton Keller. Someone put together a highlight package of his U18 tournament. I'm ok with him at 8. My preference is for one of the D, but, if the draft falls a certain way, I think you could do worse than an electrifying speedster with great hockey IQ and hands. I'm not sure where he fits in the roster makeup, but with the way he tilts the ice, I'm sure we could find a place for him.

I feel like Keller is more Nic Petan than he is Johnny Hockey.

 

[Jim Carr's Rug]

So, Pronman's ranking has made me reconsider Clayton Keller. Someone put together a highlight package of his U18 tournament. I'm ok with him at 8. My preference is for one of the D, but, if the draft falls a certain way, I think you could do worse than an electrifying speedster with great hockey IQ and hands. I'm not sure where he fits in the roster makeup, but with the way he tilts the ice, I'm sure we could find a place for him.

I don't think his speed and quickness is on par with Gaudreau or Pat Kane. He looks a tick slower to me, and I worry how that will translate at the NHL level.

 

[truthbluth]

I don't think his speed and quickness is on par with Gaudreau or Pat Kane. He looks a tick slower to me, and I worry how that will translate at the NHL level.

I disagree.
https://youtu.be/R17NWnp78sA

 

[Jame]

I don't think his speed and quickness is on par with Gaudreau or Pat Kane. He looks a tick slower to me, and I worry how that will translate at the NHL level.

I agree. He's Marner without the extra gear. I dig his tenacity off the puck more than anything.

I disagree.
https://youtu.be/R17NWnp78sA

Skill level with the puck is elite. Skating is overrated. Those types of players (small/skill) without the extra gear.... worry me.

There are too many players that are going to be available that fit our needs or have a higher floor along with a similar ceiling, to take Keller at 8.

I'm not willing to bet on him being the next Dylan Larkin. Let someone in the middle of round 1 take that chance.

 

[Zip15]

So, Pronman's ranking has made me reconsider Clayton Keller. Someone put together a highlight package of his U18 tournament. I'm ok with him at 8. My preference is for one of the D, but, if the draft falls a certain way, I think you could do worse than an electrifying speedster with great hockey IQ and hands. I'm not sure where he fits in the roster makeup, but with the way he tilts the ice, I'm sure we could find a place for him.

The U18 opened my eyes to Jost more than anyone. Not sure I'd take him at 8, but he's going to be excellent in the NHL.

 

[Jim Carr's Rug]

I agree. He's Marner without the extra gear. I dig his tenacity off the puck more than anything.



Skill level with the puck is elite. Skating is overrated. Those types of players (small/skill) without the extra gear.... worry me.

There are too many players that are going to be available that fit our needs or have a higher floor along with a similar ceiling, to take Keller at 8.

I'm not willing to bet on him being the next Dylan Larkin. Let someone in the middle of round 1 take that chance.

I will say, I'd like to see his draft stock continue to rise. Perhaps it's a possibility that he goes Top-7. The more wildcards thrown into the 4-7 range, the better for the GMTM.

 

[Heraldic]

This gets to the crux of the issue. Some people advocating BPA make the assumption that the difference between the BPA and the "need" is the difference between eight and six on scale of ten. If that is the case, I don't believe anyone here would support taking a six over an eight. If, however, the two in the same band and the difference is 8.3 and 8.1 while filling a significant organizational need, which I would submit is closer to the actual situation, a valid argument can be made for taking the 8.1.

Sure, you can argue that when we're talking about Logan Brown/Ryan Keller and Jake Bean.

But we got several posters having Chychrun ahead of Laine. And even more posters taking him before Puljujärvi. And if some of those posters make that choice based on BPA, I'm even more concerned.

You even find a comment saying that taking Pulju ahead of Chychrun would be like Edmonton taking Yakupov.

I'm honestly surprised that so many posters are so eager to drink certain kool-aid here.

 

[1972]

I don't expect Keller to be a top 10 selection. Based on history he's more likely in that 12-15 range.

 

[Chainshot]

If there is a wildcard to hop into the top 10, I think it's Jost.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Why? but if you want to play that game then his Hockey IQ makes him have the highest floor of the top defensemen.

Why does a defensemen have to always become a offensive defensemen? Why can't we be happy with a defensive defensemen who can shut down opposing teams lines and transition pass out of our zone to oh you know the offensive forwards who are "suppose" to score?

It seems kind of stupid to me when everyone discusses defensemen on the offensive game. Well if the team was all only offensive. Who's going to stay back and play defense?

the problem with cherry picking a quote is that you miss the answer to the question in the next line, and then repeat the answer in response to someone else

 

[MayDayMayDay]

If there is a wildcard to hop into the top 10, I think it's Jost.

He or Logan Brown. Teams love that size at C.

 

[N.Y. Orangeman]

Sure, you can argue that when we're talking about Logan Brown/Ryan Keller and Jake Bean.

But we got several posters having Chychrun ahead of Laine. And even more posters taking him before Puljujärvi. And if some of those posters make that choice based on BPA, I'm even more concerned.

You even find a comment saying that taking Pulju ahead of Chychrun would be like Edmonton taking Yakupov.

I'm honestly surprised that so many posters are so eager to drink certain kool-aid here.

The Laine/Chychrun may be the 6-8 example where you are jumping tiers. I don't believe anyone is in favor of that now, at least that I've seen. If memory serves, those comments were made prior to Laine's playoff run. However, when you look at the options at #8, I'd submit it starts to look more and more like the 8.1/8.3 I mentioned. Where this argument comes to a head is whether you believe a Nylander is a superior prospect overall and as a fit for the organization than a Juolevi/Chychrun/Sergachev.

I believe this will be moot in the end, with the top 6 forwards having been taken before we pick.

 

[dotcommunism]

New thread. Copied over the last several posts from the previous one. Carry on.

 

[stokes84]

The Laine/Chychrun may be the 6-8 example where you are jumping tiers. I don't believe anyone is in favor of that now, at least that I've seen. If memory serves, those comments were made prior to Laine's playoff run. However, when you look at the options at #8, I'd submit it starts to look more and more like the 8.1/8.3 I mentioned. Where this argument comes to a head is whether you believe a Nylander is a superior prospect overall and as a fit for the organization than a Juolevi/Chychrun/Sergachev.

I believe this will be moot in the end, with the top 6 forwards having been taken before we pick.

there is a clear top 6 and they are all forwards. The team that picks a defensemen in the 4-6 range will be reaching. As for poster quieting down about Chychrun being too 2 or 3, it's because it's not a credible opinion, and even though it never really was, there is nothing for them to latch onto anymore.

 

[Sabre the Win]

This is complete nonsense. The local Edminton paper had an article that basically says their GM is irresponsible (and worse) if he doesn't take Chychrun at 4. Most mock drafts also have them taking him or Juolevi at 4, but please, continue posting about your dumb conspiracy theory.

You take whatever Edmonton says and does and do the exact opposite. The fact they have been the bottom feeders for over 10 years clearly implys that. The fact they have barely hit on any prospects outside of 1st overall clearly implys that. Using Edmonton as a base to assert Chychrun being holier than thou is clearly how out of tune many Sabres fans are becoming.

Any defensemen at 4 is a reach and a direct need draft choice. I honestly hope that teams reach for the defensemen so those top 6 forwards drop to us.

 

[Zman5778]

As for poster quieting down about Chychrun being too 2 or 3, it's because it's not a credible opinion, and even though it never really was, there is nothing for them to latch onto anymore.

The bolded is complete and utter bull. There was absolutely a case to be made for Chychrun as the 2nd or 3rd guy. Granted, it was at the beginning of the season before Laine and Pulju definitively passed him by.

 

[Sabre the Win]

The bolded is complete and utter bull. There was absolutely a case to be made for Chychrun as the 2nd or 3rd guy. Granted, it was at the beginning of the season before Laine and Pulju definitively passed him by.

He has dropped because he hasnt shown growth like many players this year. It's almost like Chychrun hit his ceiling already or he was forced into a situation hes uncomfortable with proving hes not that all situational 1D Sarnia had relied on and if he can't be that guy and show progress in the OHL than he's defiantly going to struggle very hard in the NHL.

 

[Chainshot]

He has dropped because he hasnt shown growth like many players this year.

True. Also not the first time a defenseman has had this sort of end-of-season drop. Cam Fowler had a similar drop in his draft year as others stepped up. It's part of what makes drafting drafting.

It's almost like Chychrun hit his ceiling already or he was forced into a situation hes uncomfortable with proving hes not that all situational 1D Sarnia had relied on and if he can't be that guy and show progress in the OHL than he's defiantly going to struggle very hard in the NHL.

Wait...what? He WAS the 1D for Sarnia and did well in that role and spent much of the season working specifically on his defensive game.