2016 Draft Thread | 8

[Bleach Clean]

Chychrun's a tough one to project. Because a physically talented defenseman who makes bad decisions loses value quite quickly. I mean they can still have *pretty good* value like Jovo and Phaneuf but they always seem to be more disappointing than less talented guys who just play within themselves.

Now how much of that is actually just the bias of "expectation" rather than actual performance is hard to tell. I mean Jovo was ultimately a net benefit when he was on the ice, but the perception was that he should have been better than he was as exemplified by derisive names like "Special Ed".

So honestly I don't know what to make of Chychrun if that is in fact how he projects. Worth drafting? Certainly. The hard part is figuring out where the opportunity cost of the other players you are passing on tips in his favour.

Yup. It's Burns vs. Petriangelo. Right now, Burns is perhaps more noticeable, but appears to be more suspect defensively. Chyhcrun is not as gifted, but has a better read on the game -- where Burns is more instinctive in what he does.

Given the more variable nature of projecting Dmen, I think it would be a surer bet to bank on the better decision maker. Unless, of course, you think the talent difference is something that cannot be overlooked.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Sportsnet’s Final Top 30 2016 NHL Draft Rankings from Cox:

1. (1) Auston Matthews, C, Zurich (Switzerland), 6-3, 195 lb.
2. (2) Patrik Laine, LW, Tampere (Finland), 6-4, 200 lb.
3. (3) Jesse Puljujarvi, RW, Karpat (Finland), 6-3, 198 lb.
4. (4) Matthew Tkachuk, LW, London (OHL), 6-1, 188 lb.
5. (10) Pierre-Luc Dubois, LW/C, Cape Breton (QMJHL), 6-3, 201 lb.
6. (6) Olli Juolevi, D, London Knights (OHL), 6-2, 180 lb.
7. (14) Tyson Jost, C, Penticton (BCJHL), 6-0, 195 lb.
8. (20) Logan Brown, C, Windsor (OHL), 6-6, 200 lb.
9. (5) Alexander Nylander, LW, Mississauga (OHL), 6-0, 172 lb.
10. (10) Mikhail Sergachev, D, Windsor (OHL), 6-3, 195 lb.
12. (7) Jakob Chychrun, D, Sarnia (OHL), 6-2, 194 lb.
13. (9) Clayton Keller, C, USNTDP (USHL), 5-9, 170 lb.
14. (20) Logan Stanley, D, Windsor (OHL), 6-7, 210 lb.
15. (17) Dante Fabbro, D, Penticton (BCJHL), 6-1, 185 lb.
16. (11) Michael McLeod, C, Mississauga (OHL), 6-1, 184 lb.
17. (15) Jake Bean, D, Calgary (WHL), 6-0, 165 lb.
18. (19) Luke Kunin, C, University of Wisconsin (NCAA), 6-0, 190 lb.
19. (13) Max Jones, LW, London (OHL), 6-2, 189 lb. S
20. (18) Kieffer Bellows, LW, USNTDP (USHL), 6-0, 189 lb.
21. (12) Julien Gauthier, RW, Val d’Or (QMJHL), 6-4, 221 lb.
22. (24) Riley Tufte, LW, Blaine H.S. (Minnesota), 6-5, 205 lb.
23. (22) German Rubtsov, C, Russian national U18 team (MHL), 6-1, 180 lb.
24. (23) Alex DeBrincat, RW, Erie (OHL), 5-7, 165 lb.
25. (27) Pascal Laberge, C, Victoriaville (QMJHL), 6-1, 170 lb.
26. (28) Rasmus Asplund, C, Farjestads (Sweden), 5-10, 175 lb.
27. (26) Kale Clague, D, Brandon (WHL), 6-0, 194 lb.
28. (30) Tage Thompson, C, Connecticut (NCAA), 6-5, 189 lb.
29. (NR) Filip Gustavsson, G, Lulea (Sweden) 6-2, 184 lb.
30. (NR) Sam Steel, C, Regina (WHL), 5-11, 165 lb.

Honorable mentions
Nathan Bastian, C/RW, Mississauga (OHL), 6-4, 205 lb.
Carl Grundstrom, LW, Modo (Sweden), 6-0, 184 lb.
Vitalii Abramov RW, Gatineau (QMJHL), 5-9, 165 lb.
Frederic Allard, D, Chicoutimi (QMJHL), 6-1, 179 lb.
Tyler Benson LW, Vancouver (WHL), 6-0, 196 lb.
William Bitten C, Flint (OHL), 5-9, 145 lb.
Dennis Cholowski, D, Chilliwack (BCJHL), 6-1, 170 lb.
Dillon Dube, C, Kelowna (WHL), 5-10, 175 lb.
Brett Howden, C, Moose Jaw (WHL), 6-3, 190 lb.
Wade Allison, C, Tri-City (USHL), 6-3, 205 lb.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/sportsnets-final-top-30-2016-nhl-draft-prospects/

Highlighted some notables.

 

[Leafed]

Please cast your vote in the Team Board Mock Draft

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2080337

 

[Love]

Did anyone see Brock's OHL ranking? Specifically, did anyone else see what he said about Chychrun?

I see Chychrun as having the potential to develop into a dominant two-way defender who could challenge for multiple Norris trophies. Defensively, Chychrun has so many strong characteristics. Firstly, his positioning and ability to seal off forwards from chasing down loose pucks is among the best of any draft eligible defender that I've seen. If he was an NBA player, he'd be one hell of a rebounder. Part of that is because of his mobility. Part of that is because of his strength. Both are fantastic. Chychrun toys with playing physical and seems to be most willing to lower the boom when defending the rush.

http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/05/my-final-top-50-ohl-players-for-2016_20.html

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Did anyone see Brock's OHL ranking? Specifically, did anyone else see what he said about Chychrun?



http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/05/my-final-top-50-ohl-players-for-2016_20.html

Have a feeling that Chychrun is going to be one of those players that was hyped very early on, drops because of over-analysis, gets drafted lower than expected and in a few years time people say "How did he drop so far?".

 

[Nuckles]

I would personally still take Chychrun 5th overall if Dubois and the big three are taken before us. I think his weaknesses are overblown and that a lot of people didn't watch him in the 2nd half of the season + playoffs. I wouldn't be too happy if we end up taking another pure winger with our very early pick, we have a major need for potential high-end center and d-man.

 

[Love]

I would personally still take Chychrun 5th overall if Dubois and the big three are taken before us. I think his weaknesses are overblown and that a lot of people didn't watch him in the 2nd half of the season + playoffs. I wouldn't be too happy if we end up taking another pure winger with our very early pick, we have a major need for potential high-end center and d-man.

What Brock posted is definitely making me rethink my position on Chychrun, and the 5th pick in general. I don't claim to be some super scout so I value the opinion of someone like Brock quite a bit.

With that being said, even Brock himself ranked Tkachuk #1 coming out of the OHL and Chychrun at #3. It seems that he feels Tkachuk is a very safe bet to be a very solid player and that Chychrun is not as "safe", but holds incredible upside.

Another thing to consider after reading this scouting report is that the Oilers may hold this same viewpoint on Chychrun, leaving us a choice of PLD or Tkachuk if they do in fact covet Chychrun (In which case I would imagine we would select PLD). But then again, all the Oilers young, up and coming defenceman seem to be left handed just like Chychrun (Nurse, Klefbom, Reinhart) so maybe that would deter them from taking JC.

Either way the 4-5-6 picks is where the draft will really get interesting this year, and to make matters especially interesting it is 3 Western Canadian rivals making those picks who will be seeing a lot of those 3 players against one another.

 

[windflare]

What Brock posted is definitely making me rethink my position on Chychrun, and the 5th pick in general. I don't claim to be some super scout so I value the opinion of someone like Brock quite a bit.

With that being said, even Brock himself ranked Tkachuk #1 coming out of the OHL and Chychrun at #3. It seems that he feels Tkachuk is a very safe bet to be a very solid player and that Chychrun is not as "safe", but holds incredible upside.

Another thing to consider after reading this scouting report is that the Oilers may hold this same viewpoint on Chychrun, leaving us a choice of PLD or Tkachuk if they do in fact covet Chychrun (In which case I would imagine we would select PLD). But then again, all the Oilers young, up and coming defenceman seem to be left handed just like Chychrun (Nurse, Klefbom, Reinhart) so maybe that would deter them from taking JC.

Either way the 4-5-6 picks is where the draft will really get interesting this year, and to make matters especially interesting it is 3 Western Canadian rivals making those picks who will be seeing a lot of those 3 players against one another.

He basically says the same thing about Sergeychev, so it's not like Chychrun is up there alone. His take on Juolevi is that he'll probably be taken higher, but top potential is not as high as the other two, though he'll definitely make it.

Drafting is not a science, nor are scouts omnipotent. Brock has really good stuff, but ultimately, the picture will look very different in 10 years.

 

[Bad News Benning]

I liked Chychurn all the way up to the U18's where to be honest he looked pretty bad. I wish he had looked better at that tournament and erased any lingering doubts. He could turn into the best defenseman in the draft or he could struggle with injuries/consistency/etc and never be able to put the tools together.

Defenseman are so hard to judge at this age that it makes me want to stay clear of them early unless they are polished can't miss types. If for some stupid reason Benning feels we must draft a defenseman I hope he moves back to around 10 as I don't think I'd take the gamble on any of these defenseman with a top 5 pick given the forwards available.

 

[Bleach Clean]

My current top20:




1. Matthews
2. Laine
3. Puljujarvi

----------------------
- I've gone back and forth on ranking Pulju, but have decided that this is where he belongs. One cannot deny what he has done at such an early age. And his combination of traits does place him with this group. The other two are self-explanatory.
----------------------

4. Tkachuk
5. Dubois
6. McLeod
7. Jost

----------------------
- This was a difficult group to rank. Here are the reasons why I rank them as I do:
-- When compared to Dubois, Tkachuk is the better coordinated, more efficient, more dynamic offensive talent. Yes, Dubois provides the 200 ft game and the primary points, but what Tkachuk is doing overall is at #1 pick level. Astonishing.
-- Dubois is the 'raw' high ceiling talent here. Have always liked him, but when picking this high, I would go with the 'surer' top line talent in Tkachuk first.
-- McLeod, well, people will not understand his placement here and I accept that. I just see so much potential in this player. He projects as a 2nd liner right now, but all the 'hooks' are in his game to be more... much, much more. Production is _the_ question mark, but I look at it like this: He's a pass first player that is a jack of all trades on offense. He gains separation via speed and is learning to gain separation via his body/size. By having these traits together, he can play with near anyone and not hurt them. At the same time, he just drives play forward, consistently. He represents a platform. The rest is up to his post-draft development.
-- Jost is skilled enough to keep pace with the likes of Nylander, Brown and Keller, while avoiding some of the concerns the other options have. I don't think he's a stalwart defensively. He'll need some work there. On offense, he's creative and dangerous. Quick stick handler and very good vision. Plays the game hard and is almost always in the play.
----------------------

8. Chychrun
9. Fabbro
10. Nylander

11. McAvoy
12. Brown

-----------------------
- While the top7 is set for me, here is where I tend to change mind:
- Went back and forth on Chychrun and Fabbro. To me, these two represent the pinnacle of 'upside' vs. 'surety' for Defenseman in this draft. I think both will be top pairing Dmen, but Chyhcrun offers that extra offensive potential (as arsmaster states) when compared to Fabbro. However, Dmen projection being the volatile game that it is, it's a risk taking him over the smarter Dman in Fabbro.
- Fabbro over McAvoy due to PP effectiveness. I find McAvoy's point totals to be impressive, but I don't see the same shooting prowess, that's why I rank the other two ahead of him.
- I've grouped Nylander and Brown close together because I see them having a similar risk vs. upside quotient. I have McAvoy sandwiched in there because I'm weary of Brown's greater inconsistency and frankly, his height. He and Keller have that issue to opposite degree. That's why I view Nylander as the safer bet, and why I take McAvoy ahead despite him being a Dman (harder to project).
-----------------------

13. Juolevi
14. Keller

-----------------------
- The last group where I feel top line/pair potential has a greater certianty of coming true. Juolevi behind Fabbro due to PP ability, and I don't see him as being as steady, actually. Fabbro also has a little grit to his game, which I don't find with Juolevi. In fact, in situations where I think Juolevi gets overwhelmed, Fabbro 'wills' himself to success.
- This is where I would try to swing for the fences with Keller. I just feel more confident in projecting the others before him, but at this position, you have to go with him.
-----------------------

15. Bellows
16. Bean
17. Rubtsov
18. Sergachev
19. Jones
20. Kunin

------------------------
- This group gets mixed a great deal. I want to rank Bean much higher, but I think if my job was on the line, his defenisive ability is something I would concerned about.
- Bellows seems the best gamble here, given what has gone before. I see him as a complimentary PP option.
- I like Rubtsov. Plays the game with skill and positioning. Versatile talent.
- Sergachev is too inconsistent for my liking. Good production and a late birthday, and he has that offensive potential, but ES play is a question with him.
- Jones and Kunin play the game with pace. Both are hard players to play against, and offer good shooting options.
------------------------

21. Gauthier - First player in the next group.

 

[Peter Griffin]

As a hypothetical, would anyone trade #5 and #33 for two picks in the 8-15 range? Lose out on a better forward in Tkachuk/Dubois, but should still be able to pick up a good forward(Nylander, Brown, Jost, Keller) as well as a better defenseman(Fabbro, Bean, Sergachev, Chychrun?) than you could get at #33.

 

[Scholarships]

As a hypothetical, would anyone trade #5 and #33 for two picks in the 8-15 range? Lose out on a better forward in Tkachuk/Dubois, but should still be able to pick up a good forward(Nylander, Brown, Jost, Keller) as well as a better defenseman(Fabbro, Bean, Sergachev, Chychrun?) than you could get at #33.

I'd do it if Jost and Chyrchrun/Juolevi are there

And I'd also maybe do it if Jost and Bean were there

 

[racerjoe]

I'd do it if Jost and Chyrchrun/Juolevi are there

And I'd also maybe do it if Jost and Bean were there

You wouldn't know when you made the trade.

I think I would do it, depends which two picks, but if it is a top 10 and say 12, you could come away with two very good pieces. Does depend what those two picks are though.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

I would personally still take Chychrun 5th overall if Dubois and the big three are taken before us. I think his weaknesses are overblown and that a lot of people didn't watch him in the 2nd half of the season + playoffs. I wouldn't be too happy if we end up taking another pure winger with our very early pick, we have a major need for potential high-end center and d-man.

We have a need for everything..

 

[Nuckles]

We have a need for everything..

Yes, but high-end centers and d-men are much more important when building a team, and they're harder to come by. I would feel this way even more if we didn't piss away Shinkaruk, but now we basically just have Boeser and Virtanen as our potential top 6 wingers.

Regardless, we need to find our potential #1 center since Henrik won't be around much longer and I'm not too confident in Horvat or McCann taking over that role (though I think both can be very good 2nd line centers), and although Hutton is looking very promising we could still use another high-end d-man.

And I'm not just concerned about drafting for position, I do feel Chychrun is close to Tkachuk in terms of potential ability.

 

[racerjoe]

As a hypothetical, would anyone trade #5 and #33 for two picks in the 8-15 range? Lose out on a better forward in Tkachuk/Dubois, but should still be able to pick up a good forward(Nylander, Brown, Jost, Keller) as well as a better defenseman(Fabbro, Bean, Sergachev, Chychrun?) than you could get at #33.

Thought about it more, and I would. Just saying the draft starts the way we all think it will and the top five are taken trade back to 8, we can probably still take Joulevi, and say Keller, or Jost and Bean. That would be a very good draft.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Yes, but high-end centers and d-men are much more important when building a team, and they're harder to come by. I would feel this way even more if we didn't piss away Shinkaruk, but now we basically just have Boeser and Virtanen as our potential top 6 wingers.

I would say there is a real strong possibility that Jared McCann ends up converting to LW and could be a great fit there in a top 6 role.

 

[coastal_nuck]

Absolute no to trading down. The reason there is a draft order is because you get talent at the top with high potential and a higher likelihood of hitting that potential. Tkatchuk and Dubois are good enough that you don't pass on that potential. I'd be livid if we traded down.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Absolute no to trading down. The reason there is a draft order is because you get talent at the top with high potential and a higher likelihood of hitting that potential. Tkatchuk and Dubois are good enough that you don't pass on that potential. I'd be livid if we traded down.

This isn't Nicklas Backstrom and Phil Kessel sitting there for us at 4/5, I don't think Chychrun/Juolevi/Keller are far behind PLD and Tkachuk.

 

[CanaFan]

This isn't Nicklas Backstrom and Phil Kessel sitting there for us at 4/5, I don't think Chychrun/Juolevi/Keller are far behind PLD and Tkachuk.

Chychrun is too erratic and uneven in his performances to be considered even with Tkachuk and PLD. Keller is riskier because, like it or not, smaller/lighter players have additional barriers to overcome. Juolevi might be there but I still wish I saw more offensive push from him. I don't know that they are "far" behind but they are behind enough that I'd rather not drop. And if we did drop then I'd hope we look at Jost instead.

 

[stexx]

This isn't Nicklas Backstrom and Phil Kessel sitting there for us at 4/5, I don't think Chychrun/Juolevi/Keller are far behind PLD and Tkachuk.

they should be close, they are rated only a few slots below tkachuk/PLD.

I would refer you to baseball scouting terminology. The further down the draft you go the less "tools" the player at that stage has and the more "tools" they will have to develop to become a solid player. The more tools that need to be developed the less likely a player is to reach their potential. In Baseball its called a 5tool prospect by a lot of oldschool scouts.

I would argue that PLD/Tkachuk are 5tool(for lack of a better term) prospects with no real weaknesses just skills they need to enhance more such as tkachucks skating which isnt a weakness but it could be better. That is why i wouldnt be passing on either of them to move down or pick one of the D.

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

I see Tkachuk as a future Scott Hartnell (ie, a solid first liner).

Harder to get a read on what Dubois will be.

 

[David Bruce Banner]

As a hypothetical, would anyone trade #5 and #33 for two picks in the 8-15 range? Lose out on a better forward in Tkachuk/Dubois, but should still be able to pick up a good forward(Nylander, Brown, Jost, Keller) as well as a better defenseman(Fabbro, Bean, Sergachev, Chychrun?) than you could get at #33.

No, getting Tkachuk or Dubois will be big for us. Dropping spots makes the gamble larger and the payoff smaller. But since we're in a rebuild/retool phase, I wouldn't be adverse to packaging a current roster player, like Edler, for a chance at picking up Chychrun or Juolevi.

 

[biturbo19]

My current top20:

Interesting list. Really appreciate the breakdown of "tiers" and little explanations, gives a nice insight into the thought process there.


So Puljujarvi settles back into the Top-3 for you in the end?

Kind of see where you're coming from with that. I still have him behind Dubois and Tkachuk. But the more i wrestle with Chychrun especially, and some of the inconsistencies there, i just don't think i can put him ahead of a guy like Puljujarvi. So Puljujarvi kinda slides back up a bit by default.

 

[coastal_nuck]

This isn't Nicklas Backstrom and Phil Kessel sitting there for us at 4/5, I don't think Chychrun/Juolevi/Keller are far behind PLD and Tkachuk.

I think that's where we differ. I think that they are. They are clearly a tier below Tkachuk and Dubois. it would be a serious mistake to trade down.