Prospect Info: 2016 Draft/ Lottery/ Prospect Discussion Thread (Lottery April 30th)

[nally]

Where is everyone, I normally lurk here, but I'm extremely bored at work right now. Haha, not that we can discuss anything new at this point.

 

[McDrai]

Never gets old

I wonder how many of these people made videos afterwards once they knew the result. Just to get hits

 

[nally]

I wonder how many of these people made videos afterwards once they knew the result. Just to get hits

Absolute joy to watch. Love it. Wish I had one on me...I was watching with my buddy who is a dye hard leafs fan. I was fully expecting the leafs to win, and when they announced the Oil won, I lost my ****...pure giddiness. He was not happy. Many GFY comments ensued. I tried to keep it contained out of respect...but just couldn't. Was fully expecting Hanafin

 

[40oz]

McLoed is actually on my "do not draft under any circumstance" list. Barely PPG only 21 goals. Nylander with 14 more points in same games. Only 29 points last year (was this year a lucky season?)

If we were drafting 15th or so Id go for him. But hes a lot like Lawson Crouse to me (whom Id want last year when similar things were though of pre lotto win)

Haha so by "do not draft under any circumstance" you mean "do not draft under any circumstance (before 15th)"

That's not too crazy, I know there's probably 8 or so players I'd draft ahead of him. But of course he has less points that Nylander, Nylander is a much more talented offensive player who's going to go ahead of McLeod in the draft. And even then, by that logic Cody Hodgson (scored 92 points in 53 games) should be a much better player than Bo Horvat (scored 66 points in 67 games). Anyways, I think his box cars are what you'd expect for an OHL center who'll likely be drafted around 10th overall. Scheifele for example only had 22 goals in his draft year and he played 9 more games, their points per game are very close (similar size too, but I think McLeod's a bit more physical).

edit: And Scheifele had ZERO points the year before, just a lucky season?

 

[Draw Me a McElephant]

If the Oilers lucked out again and got #1, I wonder how much other teams would pay to move from #2 to #1.

 

[Aceboogie]

Haha so by "do not draft under any circumstance" you mean "do not draft under any circumstance (before 15th)"

That's not too crazy, I know there's probably 8 or so players I'd draft ahead of him. But of course he has less points that Nylander, Nylander is a much more talented offensive player who's going to go ahead of McLeod in the draft. And even then, by that logic Cody Hodgson (scored 92 points in 53 games) should be a much better player than Bo Horvat (scored 66 points in 67 games). Anyways, I think his box cars are what you'd expect for an OHL center who'll likely be drafted around 10th overall. Scheifele for example only had 22 goals in his draft year and he played 9 more games, their points per game are very close (similar size too, but I think McLeod's a bit more physical).

edit: And Scheifele had ZERO points the year before, just a lucky season?

You can pick the exceptions for any theory. Lucic had only 19 points in 62 games in his draft year. With your example of Horvat, Max Domi was picked 3 spots after and put up 87 points (26 more than Horvat) in draft year. Id MUCH rather have Domi now. Or in 2014 draft, Virtanen was only PPG. The two guys drafted after him were skilled guys in Ehlers and Nylander who look way above him. A guy like Schiele was considered a reach and his outcome is best youll see. Top 10 prospects only at ppg dont usually turn out to well. Atleast compared to more skilled counter parts. Prospects are not sure things, so if you have to bet, put money on the guys who show they can produce in junior

Mcloed just has major red flags around him in order for me to want to drop down and pick him

 

[Aceboogie]

If the Oilers lucked out again and got #1, I wonder how much other teams would pay to move from #2 to #1.

I dont think much. But I think more for #3 to 1 and actually alot to move from #4 to #1.

If Oilers finished 2nd and Vancouver 4th. Id wonder if theyd do Horvat/Tanev + 4th for 1st. Oilers pick a D and get a good center

 

[BlowbyBlow]

Absolute joy to watch. Love it. Wish I had one on me...I was watching with my buddy who is a dye hard leafs fan. I was fully expecting the leafs to win, and when they announced the Oil won, I lost my ****...pure giddiness. He was not happy. Many GFY comments ensued. I tried to keep it contained out of respect...but just couldn't. Was fully expecting Hanafin

I was one of probably a few others who was doing the hypothetical where is Hanafin in the lineup next year.

 

[Aceboogie]

What is the concensus of Oil fans regarding the 4th-5th overall pick and being in NHL next year?

I feel Oilers fans are once bitten twice shy when it comes to putting prospects in NHL right after the draft. But I honestly feel that there is a good chance any forward taken (Dubios/Tckachuk) could be in NHL with a good camp. With the possibly of having RNH as your 3c I think itd be a good development spot

For one of the D, IMO it is unlikely as I think well see Nurse or Reinhart come to camp and basically force themselves to a roster spot. Not much room for a 18 year old D prospect to make it assuming all current D perform well in camp

 

[Oilception]

What is the concensus of Oil fans regarding the 4th-5th overall pick and being in NHL next year?

I feel Oilers fans are once bitten twice shy when it comes to putting prospects in NHL right after the draft. But I honestly feel that there is a good chance any forward taken (Dubios/Tckachuk) could be in NHL with a good camp. With the possibly of having RNH as your 3c I think itd be a good development spot

For one of the D, IMO it is unlikely as I think well see Nurse or Reinhart come to camp and basically force themselves to a roster spot. Not much room for a 18 year old D prospect to make it assuming all current D perform well in camp

I personally think if we are 4/5 we end up with Chychrun and that he will be backin jr next year.

 

[Birdperson]

I personally think if we are 4/5 we end up with Chychrun and that he will be backin jr next year.

Same. Draft Chychrun, sent him back for another year and then bring him up the year after.

 

[Fourier]

It can be any 2nd round pick this year or the next. Last year the Oilers sent the Sharks the Blues 3rd rounder (they had from the Paajarvi/Perron trade) for compensation for McLellan.

It might make some sense to package up the 62 this year along with something like a 5th rounder to move up to the very bottom of the 2nd round and send that to the Bruins for Chiarelli.

Probably depends if there is someone the Oilers really like that they think they can grab with that pick.

I thought this as well but General Fanager says it has to be the team's own pick or better unless the other team agrees. Boston might accept a later #2 this year rather than waiting for next year.

For the draft pick compensation, the draft pick can be from any of the next three drafts. At the time of the signing, the NHL and Central Registry encumber the team's next available draft pick according to the compensation owed. A team must then express by June 1st before the draft whether they would like to fulfill the compensation with the existing year's draft pick. Once 2 of the 3 possible years pass without the draft pick being fulfilled, or the team is left with just one possible draft pick to fulfill the obligation, the draft pick is immediately provided to the team receiving compensation. One condition on the draft picks is that the pick must be either the team's own selection, or a selection higher in the round than their own pick.

An interesting example arose in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft where the Edmonton Oilers owed a 3rd round pick to the San Jose Sharks for the signing of head coach Todd McLellan. The Oilers did not have their own 2015 3rd round pick (previously traded to Anaheim), and did not have a pick higher in the 3rd round to forfeit (their pick was #3 in the 3rd round). As a result, the Oilers could not elect to forfeit their 2015 3rd round draft pick, so the Central Registry encumbered their 2016 3rd round pick, assigning it to San Jose. However, Edmonton did have a later 3rd round pick, 2015 STL 3, acquired in a previous trade. The pick was #26 in the round, so much later than the Oilers' selection, but the Sharks had interest in the pick. The Sharks and Oilers came to an agreement to essentially trade the encumbered 2016 EDM 3 back to Edmonton in exchange for 2015 STL 3. The pick provided to San Jose did not technically meet the conditions of the personnel compensation rules, but was a satisfactory resolution for both sides.

http://www.generalfanager.com/cba

 

[bucks_oil]

I was one of probably a few others who was doing the hypothetical where is Hanafin in the lineup next year.

I wasn't even watching. We had only a 33.5% chance of "keeping" the Hanafin slot. I was so convinced we were picking fourth that I didn't even bother.

Somehow I completely forgot about the 11.5% scenario.

I care much more this year as I've seen how tough it has been to get a D-man. Our reality is what we hear on these boards and if you are to believe it, we have very few assets that people view as acceptable for a top D. We're gonna have to "overpay" with assets or a combo of assets including RNH, Hall, Nurse, or our first.

Having a Laine or a Puljujarvi coming in the pipe might make an RNH+Ebs offer for a D all that much more palatable.

We really need to stay in the top 3. If we drop, I see us picking Chychryn (sp?), and having to trade 3 of: Nurse, RNH, Ebs, Klef, Yak, 2017 1st in order to get a couple of RD and balance our lineup.

I can only hope the upcoming expansion draft and GM's rationality (vs opposing fans' spite) plays a prominent role in actual (non-HF) reality.

 

[bucks_oil]

What is the concensus of Oil fans regarding the 4th-5th overall pick and being in NHL next year?

I feel Oilers fans are once bitten twice shy when it comes to putting prospects in NHL right after the draft. But I honestly feel that there is a good chance any forward taken (Dubios/Tckachuk) could be in NHL with a good camp. With the possibly of having RNH as your 3c I think itd be a good development spot

For one of the D, IMO it is unlikely as I think well see Nurse or Reinhart come to camp and basically force themselves to a roster spot. Not much room for a 18 year old D prospect to make it assuming all current D perform well in camp

If we keep the pick and draft a forward then RNH is almost assuredly gone for a Dman. IMO

 

[McGoMcD]

If we keep the pick and draft a forward then RNH is almost assuredly gone for a Dman. IMO

Doubt it, more like the pic is gone for a Dman. Other than Mathews I am not sold any of those guys will be NHL ready next year. Chia will look to flip the pick.

Not sure why so many want a Nuge or Hall gone and want the pick so bad. After all these years of a futile rebuild you think people would be over adding 18 year olds to the line up.

 

[Digger12]

My friend at work (a diehard Canucks fan) sent me this yesterday over Skype messaging:

if you win the lottery again i may cut you
just fyi

I can't even put into words the seething hatred that would abound if the Oilers *somehow* won this lottery again.

 

[McDrai]

My friend at work (a diehard Canucks fan) sent me this yesterday over Skype messaging:



I can't even put into words the seething hatred that would abound if the Oilers *somehow* won this lottery again.

Your friend shouldn't bring a knife to a gun fight :p

 

[McSuper]

On a side note I just ran the draft simulator 5 times

Oilers 1st 3 time
Oilers 2nd 1 time
Oilers 3rd 1 time

Late year I ran the think 1000 time and came up Oilers more then any other team . The funny thing is when the Oilers were last a few weeks ago I ran it 100 times and most times it was TML winning .

I think HF was get broken if we win again . Also LOL at the NHL change things to keep us from getting the first if we win they have only helped us by changing the rules

 

[Oilception]

On a side note I just ran the draft simulator 5 times

Oilers 1st 3 time
Oilers 2nd 1 time
Oilers 3rd 1 time

Late year I ran the think 1000 time and came up Oilers more then any other team . The funny thing is when the Oilers were last a few weeks ago I ran it 100 times and most times it was TML winning .

I think HF was get broken if we win again . Also LOL at the NHL change things to keep us from getting the first if we win they have only helped us by changing the rules

I previously ran it 100 times and Toronto led by alot. Oilers were second in first overals but like 5th in top 3 which was weird

 

[40oz]

You can pick the exceptions for any theory. Lucic had only 19 points in 62 games in his draft year. With your example of Horvat, Max Domi was picked 3 spots after and put up 87 points (26 more than Horvat) in draft year. Id MUCH rather have Domi now. Or in 2014 draft, Virtanen was only PPG. The two guys drafted after him were skilled guys in Ehlers and Nylander who look way above him. A guy like Schiele was considered a reach and his outcome is best youll see. Top 10 prospects only at ppg dont usually turn out to well. Atleast compared to more skilled counter parts. Prospects are not sure things, so if you have to bet, put money on the guys who show they can produce in junior

Mcloed just has major red flags around him in order for me to want to drop down and pick him

That's because you need to take into account more than their point totals, you can't just look at their basic stats and write off a player. Behind those numbers there's plenty of context in terms of the team and the player's role on the team. No offense, but I'll take your "major red flags with a grain of salt" if you repeatedly spell the player's name wrong and can't offer any explanation other than their box cars.

 

[Seachd]

Doubt it, more like the pic is gone for a Dman. Other than Mathews I am not sold any of those guys will be NHL ready next year. Chia will look to flip the pick.

Not sure why so many want a Nuge or Hall gone and want the pick so bad. After all these years of a futile rebuild you think people would be over adding 18 year olds to the line up.

Every team adds rookies every year. Not sure why next year would be any different.

 

[McGoMcD]

Every team adds rookies every year. Not sure why next year would be any different.

True, and we will. but not always 18 year olds that you highly depend on.

 

[Aceboogie]

That's because you need to take into account more than their point totals, you can't just look at their basic stats and write off a player. Behind those numbers there's plenty of context in terms of the team and the player's role on the team. No offense, but I'll take your "major red flags with a grain of salt" if you repeatedly spell the player's name wrong and can't offer any explanation other than their box cars.

I dont think you really need to look a lot more than box scores* (not cars, just poking fun )

Blue bullet report is doing some tremendous work regarding the draft and success of players with regards to draft position and draft year scoring. Lower scoring top 10 picks pan out MUCH less than higher scoring ones. I mean you can list me 20 reasons why you think this guy is totally different than disappointments from 2008-2012. But then I could probably also find reports from those same players as to why they are totally different than similar players drafted in 2006-2010.

Scoring in junior levels is very, very indicative of future NHL success. Point totals actually are like 90% of a scouting report. Scoring in junior shows they have ability to control play, generate offense etc. If they cant do that exceptionally in junior, there is a very slim chance theyll provide offense in NHL.

Same thing applies to junior. I dont need to hear scouting reports on Tinordi, Tuebert, Musil, Reinhart, Cowen. They are hovering .5 ppg in junior? yeah they wont be living up to expectation and will be struggling to play in over 100 NHL games in their career. You can show me Hal Gill and Weber as exceptions, but ill show you the dozens others that followed the rule

.5 ppg D or ppg forwards drafted in top 15ish area are going to disappoint a lot (a lot) more than high scoring forwards or D

 

[bucks_oil]

Doubt it, more like the pic is gone for a Dman. Other than Mathews I am not sold any of those guys will be NHL ready next year. Chia will look to flip the pick.

Not sure why so many want a Nuge or Hall gone and want the pick so bad. After all these years of a futile rebuild you think people would be over adding 18 year olds to the line up.

I agree that the pick is very likely in play and may ultimately be the move. I was responding to the poster suggesting that an 18 year old forward could be sheltered on the third line with Nuge. That's why I wrote:

"If we keep the pick and draft a forward, Nuge is most likely dealt..."

I don't think we have the luxury of keeping both pick and Nuge. One will likely have to go for the type of D that we need, unless Chiarelli is better at mind control than I thought.

 

[McGoMcD]

I agree that the pick is very likely in play and may ultimately be the move. I was responding to the poster suggesting that an 18 year old forward could be sheltered on the third line with Nuge. That's why I wrote:

"If we keep the pick and draft a forward, Nuge is most likely dealt..."

I don't think we have the luxury of keeping both pick and Nuge. One will likely have to go for the type of D that we need, unless Chiarelli is better at mind control than I thought.

Well it seems certain that Chia will get a dman. I really don't think Nuge will be dealt for one. I think the pick is dealt or, which I think is actually most likely, we sign a UFA d man. So there are lots of option to get a dman that don't involve trading Nuge.