2016 ALCS: (2) Cleveland Indians vs (WC) Toronto Blue Jays ‎- Part 2

[Dr Pepper]

Those were both awful trades that left everybody disappointed in the end There was brief excitement and then the team sucked.

Yep.

Who's left from those trades, after this year?

I want to say it's just Thole, but if they've offered him a contract extension then maybe they're in talks to bring Dickey back?

If not, why'd they even sign him with Martin and Navarro around?

Plus I guess Reyes was used to bring in Tulo, so there's that.

 

[Neutrinos]

No manager on earth would bunt with Jose Bautista.

Jose Bautista's 2016 playoff numbers against Texas and Cleveland:

.167 AVG, .286 OBP, .300 SLG. .586 OPS with 10 strikeouts in 35 plate appearances


At some point you need productive at-bats from your hitters in key situations - regardless of the name on the back of the jersey

And if your argument is "Bautista doesn't know how to bunt", again, that would fall on the manager for not having his players prepared

 

[Neutrinos]

Those were both awful trades that left everybody disappointed in the end There was brief excitement and then the team sucked.

Yes, but immediately following those trades, Vegas had the Jays as the favorites to win the World Series and the city was buzzing with excitement

 

[Cassano]

No manager on earth would bunt with Jose Bautista.

To even suggest such a thing is mind bottling.

Completely mind-boggling. One of the strangest suggestions on this forum.

 

[robert terwilliger]

i will pay you four american dollars if you get video of john gibbons asking jose bautista to bunt.

still waiting for you to answer why the jays would trade russell martin, btw.

 

[Neutrinos]

What's it is like to have your mind boggled?

Is it that feeling you get when you were so sure of something, yet were ultimately proven wrong?

I'm not sure I've had the pleasure of such an experience

Do tell...

 

[c9777666]

I'm going to assume Kluber starts game 1 of the World Series, eh?

 

[robert terwilliger]

let's break it down then.

game 1:

bautista's first plate appearance is with runners on second and third and one out. should they have bunted him there? donaldson at third, encarnacion at at second in the first inning of the lcs? no, that would be pretty dumb. you want bautista swinging and ideally driving in two runs.

second pa is in the third, runner on first and two outs. bunt him with two outs? no.

third is in the sixth, leading off the inning. still no score. want him bunting for a base hit? of course not.

final is in the top of the eighth with a runner on first, human buzzsaw andrew miller on the mound. as much as i'd enjoy seeing someone try to bunt andrew miller, no. the runner on first is not the tying run.

game 2:

leading off the second against a pitcher that invites contact.

third inning, two outs with runners on first and second in a tie game.

sixth inning, two outs, down a run with nobody on.

ninth inning, one out, down a run and nobody on.

game 3:

leading off against mordecai three finger brown.

leading off the third inning of a tie game.

bottom fifth. bases empty, one out in a tie game.

bottom seventh, two outs, runner on second.

game 4:

leading off.

bottom third. bases empty, one out in a tie game.

bottom fifth, leading off.

bottom seventh, runner on first, no outs, up 2-1.

bottom eighth, runner on first, two outs, up 5-1.

game 5:

leading off.

leading off, bottom fourth down 3-0.

bottom sixth, bases empty, one out, down 3-0.

leading off, bottom ninth, down 3-0.

curious where you would suggest bautista bunt.

 

[Virtanen18]

What's it is like to have your mind boggled?

Is it that feeling you get when you were so sure of something, yet were ultimately proven wrong?

I'm not sure I've had the pleasure of such an experience

Do tell...

What's it like to continue posting nonsense while completely dodging robert asking you a question? Do tell

 

[Blitzkrug]

Who the **** even considers bunting with Bautista?

That's the type of **** i do in The Show because i'm too incompetent to actually bring runs home. Bautista is not such a player.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

Mordecai Three Finger Brown.

 

[robert terwilliger]

still nothing from neutrinos, who is clearly on a mission to find jose bautista and teach him how to bunt to prove me wrong.

also still waiting for an answer on why the blue jays would trade russell martin.

something tells me i'll be waiting a while.

 

[Hire Sather]

What's it is like to have your mind boggled?

Is it that feeling you get when you were so sure of something, yet were ultimately proven wrong?

I'm not sure I've had the pleasure of such an experience

Do tell...

Who is this even directed towards?

 

[Virtanen18]

still nothing from neutrinos, who is clearly on a mission to find jose bautista and teach him how to bunt to prove me wrong.

also still waiting for an answer on why the blue jays would trade russell martin.

something tells me i'll be waiting a while.

Maybe you'll get an answer when he becomes a fan again next October.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Maybe you'll get an answer when he becomes a fan again next October.

I could maybe see some instances where you would want to bunt with Bautista, especially with him in the lead off spot, however those would be very situational.

One instance that comes to mind would be late innings, or extras with a runner on 1st (no other runners) in a tie game or trailing by 1. Bautista is a big double play threat and with guys like Donaldson and Encarnacion behind him I think it would be worth it.

 

[Neutrinos]

What about bunting over runners on 1st and 2nd? The run expectancy for runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs is 1.47 runs, and the specific breakdown is as follows:

Runs / Probability
0 ------36.99%
1 ------22.94%
2 ------16.27%
3 ------12.23%
4+ ----11.57%

For runners on 2nd and 3rd and one out, the run expectancy is 1.36 runs, and the specific breakdown is as follows:

Runs / Probability
0 ------33.26%
1 ------27.34%
2 ------22.28%
3 ------9.11%
4+ ----8.01%

Now we're getting somewhere. You've still reduced your overall run expectancy. But you've decreased your chances of scoring 0 runs by 3.62%, so you've increased your likelihood of scoring at least one run. What's more, you've increased your chances of scoring exactly one run by almost 5%, and exactly two runs by 6%! Basically, the sacrifice you're making is increasing your probability of scoring 1-2 runs at the expense of scoring 3 or more. So in a close game in the later innings and runners on first and second, it (and it hurts to say this) might make sense to bunt them over.

http://www.athleticsnation.com/2013/8/7/4590940/a-statistical-defense-sort-of-of-the-sac-bunt








See you next October!

 

[darko]

What's it is like to have your mind boggled?

Is it that feeling you get when you were so sure of something, yet were ultimately proven wrong?

I'm not sure I've had the pleasure of such an experience

Do tell...

Mind boggled = when your head starts spinning after you read crap.

 

[darko]

Mordecai Three Finger Brown.

Led me to ATD title. He's the GOAT.

 

[Captain Bowie]

http://www.athleticsnation.com/2013/8/7/4590940/a-statistical-defense-sort-of-of-the-sac-bunt








See you next October!

Nice numbers. But that is assuming there is a 100% chance the player bunts successfully.

Math fail by you.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

Led me to ATD title. He's the GOAT.

The reference made me lirl, especially given the tone of the post up to that point.

 

[robert terwilliger]

those "success" tables that you listed are based on first and second, nobody out v. first and second, one out.

jose bautista never batted in that situation. the closest he came was in game 1, top 8 with a runner on first and one out, down by 2. by this table

http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

which is what your linked article is based on, the re24 was .509. if bautista had sacrificed him over to second, there would be a re24 of .319.

there was also an instance in game 4 where bautista came up with a runner on first, no outs and up 2-1. the re24 in that instance is .859. if bautista sacrificed him to second, it goes down to .664.

once again, in your attempt to win an argument, you failed. however, maybe you can find another article that doesn't support your theory w/r/t russell martin and why the jays should trade him since i've been asking you about that comment since you made it.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

those "success" tables that you listed are based on first and second, nobody out v. first and second, one out.

jose bautista never batted in that situation. the closest he came was in game 1, top 8 with a runner on first and one out, down by 2. by this table

http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

which is what your linked article is based on, the re24 was .509. if bautista had sacrificed him over to second, there would be a re24 of .319.

there was also an instance in game 4 where bautista came up with a runner on first, no outs and up 2-1. the re24 in that instance is .859. if bautista sacrificed him to second, it goes down to .664.

once again, in your attempt to win an argument, you failed. however, maybe you can find another article that doesn't support your theory w/r/t russell martin and why the jays should trade him since i've been asking you about that comment since you made it.

The argument for trading Martin is fairly simple. He's ludicrously overpaid and is declining fairly rapidly. Trading him is a non-starter though because he might have the lowest trade value in the league.

He will be earning 20 million each of the next 3 seasons and will be 34, 35, and 36 for them. His production is rapidly declining and is likely to bottom out soon. A better question would be who would be insane enough to trad for him? Everybody thinks that the prospect of losing EE and Bautista is what's going to sink the Jays, however its the absolute poison pills that Anthopoulos left behind in the Martin contract and then the even more ludicrous Tulowitzki contract. Man did he ever get taken for a ride in the Tulo deal.

 

[robert terwilliger]

the problem is: they don't have another catcher after this season. and while yeah, paying martin for the next three seasons isn't ideal, he's still a good defensive catcher and i don't think they'd be able to replace him on the market.

the jewels of the catching free agency market are wieters and lucroy, both of whom are 31 and looking to cash in for the first time. i don't think the jays have the movable assets to go out and get a young catcher to add since there's already going to be a lot of turnover already.

all i'm saying is that they know what they have in martin. i think his cs% was an aberration this season and he still calls a good game. lucroy may add more offensively but can they add him as well as rework the rest of their offense?

 

[Fish on The Sand]

the problem is: they don't have another catcher after this season. and while yeah, paying martin for the next three seasons isn't ideal, he's still a good defensive catcher and i don't think they'd be able to replace him on the market.

the jewels of the catching free agency market are wieters and lucroy, both of whom are 31 and looking to cash in for the first time. i don't think the jays have the movable assets to go out and get a young catcher to add since there's already going to be a lot of turnover already.

all i'm saying is that they know what they have in martin. i think his cs% was an aberration this season and he still calls a good game. lucroy may add more offensively but can they add him as well as rework the rest of their offense?

Lucroy isn't a free agent. The Rangers exercised, or rather will, exercise his option. The Blue Jays would be better off trading for somebody like Cervelli if he's available. Provides similar value for peanuts.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Lucroy isn't a free agent. The Rangers exercised, or rather will, exercise his option. The Blue Jays would be better off trading for somebody like Cervelli if he's available. Provides similar value for peanuts.

The problem with that is....He won't be available because he is a good catcher.