Line Combos: 2016/2017 Colorado Avalanche Defence

[Ivan13]

Avs percentage of picks that are D isn't that far off the norm. Their ability to develop them and their willingness to trade them early is the issue IMO.

Spot on. Avs have or had a problem with identifying talent among junior D, and they can't develop them.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Early part of the second round is a good spot to take D. They've done well there getting Meloche and Bigras. Both of them could have easily been taken in the first round. The defensive depth in the pipeline was much better than the forwards until this draft, when Bigras graduates then it will look a bit more even. There was a complete dearth of NHL projectable forwards before this draft. It's not about what the big club needs now, it's about building up the system. There's more variance in D drafted in the first round, if a guy isn't a sure top pairing then it's about even with taking one in the second round. Drafting in the top 10 is about the only way to get top 6 forwards. And yes the development part of it is huge too, doesn't matter where they are drafted if they can't be developed right. I think they've had D high on their list but the ones they like haven't made it to 10, they shouldn't take one just to take one.

 

[Don Corleone]

Avs percentage of picks that are D isn't that far off the norm. Their ability to develop them and their willingness to trade them early is the issue IMO.

The D drafted by the Avs since 2004, 13 drafts

2004
5th round Richard Demen-Willaume
6th round Derek Peltier
9th round Steve McClellen

2005
4th round Raymond Macias
6th round Jason Lynch
7th round Kyle Cumiskey

2006
2nd round Nigel Williams
4th round Kevin Montgomery

2007
1st round Kevin Shattenkirk
2nd round Colby Cohen
6th round Jens Hellgren

2008
2nd round Cameron Gaunce
6th round Joel Chouinard and Jonas Holos

2009
2nd round Stefan Elliott
3rd round Tyson Barrie
7th round Gus Young

2010
4th round Stephen Silas
5th round Troy Rutkowski

2011
1st round Duncan Siemens
6th round Gabriel Beaupre
7th round Dillon Donnelly

2012
None

2013
2nd round Chris Bigras
4th round Mason Geertsen
5th round Will Butcher
6th round Ben Storm
7th round Wilhelm Westlund

2014
3rd round Kyle Wood
5th round Anton Lindholm

2015
2nd round Nicolas Meloche
4th round Andrei Mironov
6th round Sergei Boikov

2016
3rd round Josh Anderson
6th round Nathan Clurman

Does that really look like a team that is committed to build a defence trough the draft? No it does not. Most of the picks are low round picks that had a minimal chance of becoming anything. A very weak collection of prospects. A list full of bunch of low skilled players. Honestly how many of them had any chance of becoming anything better than a fringe NHL defecemen? Not many.

Looking at that list it is obvious to me why the Avs defence has sucked for years. They have been unwilling to draft high potential D and since the draft is where you get those stud D men its no wonder the Avs have been hurting for a long time in this department. The only really talented player with high potential they have taken in 13 years has been Shattenkirk. Barrie turned out great, imagine us without him. Siemens I am not even counting because I hated the pick since day 1, dont draft low skill players high in the draft ever. Then there are a couple of 2nd rounders and thats about it. Compare that to the forwards and its obvious what this franchise thinks is important in the draft.

 

[henchman21]

I agree that they shouldn't just take a D to take one, but drafting them high is the best chance to get a #1 (IMO the Avs had a clear shot this past year, and Jones in 2013 would have been a good pick). Yeah you CAN find them later, but just like a top center, they are hard to find later. Finding a 2/3 can happen, but #1s are getting very difficult to find outside the top 15.

The vast majority of the #1/high end #2 types have gone high (top 20) in recent years. The Doughty/OEL/Karlsson/Lindholms of the worlds get drafted high. Faulk is the most recent #1 to be drafted out of the top 15, and that was 6 years ago now. Before him... Subban 2007? Brodie is probably a very solid #2, maybe low end #1... that was 2008. Finding the gems in the 2nd and higher rounds is becoming a thing of the past. Scouting is getting too good for all the teams to miss on these defensemen consistently.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Still, Bigras and Meloche are two of our very best prospects.

 

[ABasin]

Avs percentage of picks that are D isn't that far off the norm. Their ability to develop them and their willingness to trade them early is the issue IMO.

All true, but the Avs not typically drafting defensemen early is part of it also.

 

[Don Corleone]

Still, Bigras and Meloche are two of our very best prospects.

Absolutely but if they do not reach their potential we are hurting big time and its all because of the history the Avs have had with going with forwards instead of defence.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Absolutely but if they do not reach their potential we are hurting big time and its all because of the history the Avs have had with going with forwards instead of defence.

You could say that about any prospect, I know you already mentioned Siemens but it hurts he never developed well either and they used a high pick on him. It's not just about the picks to me, it's the talent level. At this point is it time to take a defenseman high, yeah I do and I think they would have the last two years if their guy was available, maybe he'll be available next year.

 

[henchman21]

Still, Bigras and Meloche are two of our very best prospects.

I don't disagree that they are, but if the Avs want a franchise defensemen, they need to draft them high. Just like if you want a franchise center, you draft them high.

The Avs have always been an organization that wants to trade or sign their top defensive talent, and there is an attempt to change that, but they haven't moved away from that philosophy totally yet. The young defensemen they have pinned their hopes on this time around (Zadorov) was brought in that way. So were the last few (EJ, Morris, Leopold, Quincey). They also mixed in the vets (Blake, Bourque, Ozo, Hannan). That model has a much harder time working in a cap world. It isn't impossible, just really difficult.

 

[tigervixxxen]

If Sergachev had been there, I strongly feel they would have taken him and then we wouldn't be having this conversation. Everyone talks about bpa and don't draft for need but it's like when it comes to defensemen those that want one don't care about bpa. They weren't going to take Chychrun at that spot. The year before they wanted Provorov and werenski and they weren't there, it wouldn't have been a good decision at this point to pass Rantanen for Zboril or whoever was next on their list.

I get the point that if you want a strong defense you got to commit to drafting them. But that works for all positions. The teams that have been able to load up on D picks year after year have also been the teams with multiple first round picks too. I wish this org had a stronger commitment to drafting overall.

 

[henchman21]

If Sergachev had been there, I strongly feel they would have taken him and then we wouldn't be having this conversation. Everyone talks about bpa and don't draft for need but it's like when it comes to defensemen those that want one don't care about bpa. They weren't going to take Chychrun at that spot. The year before they wanted Provorov and werenski and they weren't there, it wouldn't have been a good decision at this point to pass Rantanen for Zboril or whoever was next on their list.

I get the point that if you want a strong defense you got to commit to drafting them. But that works for all positions. The teams that have been able to load up on D picks year after year have also been the teams with multiple first round picks too. I wish this org had a stronger commitment to drafting overall.

I'm not a BPA sort of person. I believe in building up a core, and then surrounding that core with talent (in other words, core then BPA). A team needs a #1D, #1C, and #1G... without all of those and without the D and C being high end, a team isn't going to win a cup. Extra pieces are obviously needed, but those are the key. If a team doesn't have those (or prospects/players with that potential), then they are spinning their wheels IMO.

The Avs tried to trade up to draft Rantanen at 8, I really don't think they would have drafted Werenski over Rantanen. IMO Chychrun should have been the pick this year. I like Jost as a player, but I don't think he completes the team anymore than than what the Avs already have. I would have also drafted Jones over MacK (I was clear about that in 2013 too). I like MacK and I think he will be a hell of a player, but the hardest spot to fill in the NHL is the #1D... Jones would have solved that issue here for a decade. I totally get the MacK selection if they didn't think any of the centers on the team were going to be that high end #1 (seems they were right if they did). The Jost over Chychrun selection, I won't agree with. Rantanen over Werenski (like I think they would have) is something I wouldn't have agreed with.

To the Avs' credit, they obviously believe in Zadorov and Bigras becoming great players... especially Z. I personally wouldn't pin my hopes of having a #1D on either.

 

[RockyMtnRedhawk]

I know this has been addressed before, so I apologize for asking again.

How much will the expansion draft affect Bigras playing in the NHL this year? It seems to make the most sense to protect 7-3-1 instead of 8-1, so you can protect more total players. The team is obviously better with him in the lineup, but if this is a building year, doesn't it make the most sense to keep him in the AHL? On the other hand, it doesn't send a great message as an organization to keep him in the minors if he has worked hard this summer and really earns a spot in camp.

Am I understanding the expansion draft eligibility correctly? Zads and Bigras would both need to be protected if the played in the NHL this year, right?

 

[henchman21]

Am I understanding the expansion draft eligibility correctly? Zads and Bigras would both need to be protected if the played in the NHL this year, right?

Only Z out of those two. The issue is Beauch though, he has a NMC, but it is unsure if it covers 17-18 (likely does) and if so, would he waive.

 

[tigervixxxen]

#1D is really tough to get, I agree. But I don't see Chychrun as that, I'm still not sure Jones is that. It's really tough to draft even a high end D and know you are getting that.

Playing pro, regardless if it's the AHL or NHL for any of those players counts the same. Only reason there's a loophole with Rantanen that he played in the AHL and didn't have it count is because he was under 20 and had his contract slide. Makes no difference for Bigras and Zadorov.

 

[henchman21]

#1D is really tough to get, I agree. But I don't see Chychrun as that, I'm still not sure Jones is that. It's really tough to draft even a high end D and know you are getting that.

We will disagree on Chychrun and Jones, but that isn't for this thread or really for the Avs board anymore.

It is tough to draft high end D, but very nearly impossible when they don't draft them high. Teams are not letting them slip anymore. The Avs had chances in pretty much every draft they have drafted top 10 in since this post lockout rebuild first started, except 2015. The only 1st round defensemen in that range came in a weak draft as the #11 selection (1 out of 8 since 2009). They simply missed there.

 

[Thepoolmaster]

Interesting discussion but I think you have to go bpa. You can build up your team by taking the best player and then trading them. Look at the oilers. Of course the difficulty is actually making the trades work but you can build up your team by trading the bpa for a need. Nashville is doing the same with defense.

 

[henchman21]

Interesting discussion but I think you have to go bpa. You can build up your team by taking the best player and then trading them. Look at the oilers. Of course the difficulty is actually making the trades work but you can build up your team by trading the bpa for a need. Nashville is doing the same with defense.

Not sure I'd point to them...

Nashville had to pay a big price to get RyJo, would they have been better off just drafting Monahan in 2013?

 

[InjuredChoker]

BPA is pretty vague term. it can mean a lot of things.

it could be just taking the best player regardless of position.

or it could be taking the player that gives you the most value in 7 years/when the player is 27. player A who is winger is seen as slightly better by a team compared to player B who is a defenseman but defenseman usually have higher value and that team might be stacked on the wing already. thus, argument can be made that player B would bring the most value to that team (and maybe even if they were stacked on D but weak on wing) and would be BPA.

Not sure I'd point to them...

Nashville had to pay a big price to get RyJo, would they have been better off just drafting Monahan in 2013?

RyJo > monahan on the ice.

of course ryjo could leave in couple of years so monahan would be better in that case.

 

[AvalancheFan19]

RyJo > monahan on the ice.

of course ryjo could leave in couple of years so monahan would be better in that case.

I wouldn't say that confidently. Monahan has back to back 60+ point seasons in his sophomore and third year with excellent defensive play. That's very good. RyJo had 63 points as well in his third season but was not quite as good defensively. As of right now, RyJo is better but that gap could close rather quickly. And the gap isn't that big to begin with.

I think you should go BPA more often than not. Sometimes it backfires but usually it doesn't. Rantanen and Jost were absolutely the right picks, that's all I know.

 

[henchman21]

RyJo > monahan on the ice.

of course ryjo could leave in couple of years so monahan would be better in that case.

They would have also had Monahan for the full past 3 seasons... making them a better overall team the 2.5 seasons before RyJo got there.

I agree that RyJo is better, I wouldn't say there is an extreme difference between the two though. The Preds probably could have traded back a pick or two as well and still gotten Monahan if value was a concern.

 

[AslanRH]

The D drafted by the Avs since 2004, 13 drafts

[snip]

Looking at that list it is obvious to me why the Avs defence has sucked for years. They have been unwilling to draft high potential D and since the draft is where you get those stud D men its no wonder the Avs have been hurting for a long time in this department. The only really talented player with high potential they have taken in 13 years has been Shattenkirk. Barrie turned out great, imagine us without him. Siemens I am not even counting because I hated the pick since day 1, dont draft low skill players high in the draft ever. Then there are a couple of 2nd rounders and thats about it. Compare that to the forwards and its obvious what this franchise thinks is important in the draft.

So without the benefit of Hindsight (Vlasic over Stoa, etc), looking back on your draft rankings since 2004 as that seems to be where you cutoff, who would you have had the Avs select in all those years?

 

[InjuredChoker]

I wouldn't say that confidently. Monahan has back to back 60+ point seasons in his sophomore and third year with excellent defensive play. That's very good. RyJo had 63 points as well in his third season but was not quite as good defensively. As of right now, RyJo is better but that gap could close rather quickly. And the gap isn't that big to begin with.

i'm not seeing this excellent defensive play from monahan. logan couture 2.0 with prettier face and worse defense.

i think ryjo was better defensively on his sophomore year than what monahan has showed so far.

 

[AslanRH]

i'm not seeing this excellent defensive play from monahan. logan couture 2.0 with prettier face and worse defense.

i think ryjo was better defensively on his sophomore year than what monahan has showed so far.

I think Monahan looked worse last year defensively, but was put in more of a #1 scoring role. I think if he were to be given the assignments of a more shutdown center rather than the offensive one he would look better.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I wouldn't say that confidently. Monahan has back to back 60+ point seasons in his sophomore and third year with excellent defensive play. That's very good. RyJo had 63 points as well in his third season but was not quite as good defensively. As of right now, RyJo is better but that gap could close rather quickly. And the gap isn't that big to begin with.

I think you should go BPA more often than not. Sometimes it backfires but usually it doesn't. Rantanen and Jost were absolutely the right picks, that's all I know.

LOL. I cant believe being drafted as a two way player has allowed people to believe he's good defensively in the NHL. He isn't a good two way player. He may become one, but he isn't yet. At all.

 

[Thepoolmaster]

Not sure I'd point to them...

Nashville had to pay a big price to get RyJo, would they have been better off just drafting Monahan in 2013?

I meant that they've drafted BPA and are now trying to turn those assets into defence. Whether they do it successfully or not is a different story.

That would, in theory, be the same price no? They are giving up jones in either scenario. I would argue Ryjo is better than monahan although that may change. Monahan would be an RFA still but you are getting someone who has been developed elsewhere. They are better off with Ryjo than Monahan because of Rinne's age IMO.

Is there a difference in skill set you wouldn't go past though to get that #1C. I'm just curious. For example, lets go back and say Tampa picked doughty over Stamkos. Do you take Duchene over Hedman the following year?