Speculation: 2016-17 Blues prediction in regular season?

[Spektre]

Wrong thread boy, wrong thread. Go here.

The term boy can be construed as a pretty derogatory term. I voted and attempted a humorous reply (in the correct thread). I'm not sure if you are trying to be derogatory or not. You're not hurting my feelings either way but seeing that you're from wherever I thought I'd give you a heads up, if you didn't already know.

 

[MissouriMook]

I don't get the Subban over Weber fear, unless we are looking long term.

I don't either. The degree to which Subban is better offensively than Weber is smaller (today) than the degree to which Weber is better defensively than Subban. Over time, I think NSH gets the better of the deal based on the players' ages, but in the short term I think MTL got the best of the deal.

 

[Evocable Manager]

I guess Id call them more boom/bust. Im just not a huge fan of PK's game while easily admitting hes one of the best athletes in the game with a great toobox.

I absolutely love watching PK. He always is doing something wild.
I guess this year we'll see if he was carried by Price (in terms of being a fine defender) and if he improves Nashville blueline.

I'm assuming Nashville made the trade to increase mobility and prolong their window a little.

 

[Celtic Note]

I don't either. The degree to which Subban is better offensively than Weber is smaller (today) than the degree to which Weber is better defensively than Subban. Over time, I think NSH gets the better of the deal based on the players' ages, but in the short term I think MTL got the best of the deal.

I am in the same boat. Weber is a better player defensively. Subban is better offensively, which is better for Nashville given their team defense. But that doesn't mean I view Subban as an upgrade.

 

[2 Minute Minor]

I don't either. The degree to which Subban is better offensively than Weber is smaller (today) than the degree to which Weber is better defensively than Subban. Over time, I think NSH gets the better of the deal based on the players' ages, but in the short term I think MTL got the best of the deal.

ON NASHVILLE, with the totality of their D corps, Subban scares me more than Weber. I think he is going to add a dimension we haven't had to defend against, and they have the guys to compensate for his mistakes.

 

[Ranksu]

Chicago's d-core is stacked compare to last year playoffs. Switch Svedberg and Gustafsson for Cambpell and Kempny and put Roszival 7th dmen. They are stacked.

 

[Stopsight]

Chicago's d-core is stacked compare to last year playoffs. Switch Svedberg and Gustafsson for Cambpell and Kempny and put Roszival 7th dmen. They are stacked.

Going to have to disagree...I don't see a single defenseman on their roster that has trended up since last year. Gotta love that Seabrook contract as a division rival.

ON NASHVILLE, with the totality of their D corps, Subban scares me more than Weber. I think he is going to add a dimension we haven't had to defend against, and they have the guys to compensate for his mistakes.

The Subban Josi pairing is going to be a train wreck. Weber is the one who compensates for mistakes, and he is now in Montreal.

 

[HolyJumpin]

Blues will do better than the Hawks and the Stars. Hawks have a depleted roster and one good line. Stars probably have a worse D and insanely bad goaltending. Rinne might hold back the Preds. Wild are getting old. Blues will might win the division or be in the top 2.

 

[Ranksu]

Going to have to disagree...I don't see a single defenseman on their roster that has trended up since last year. Gotta love that Seabrook contract as a division rival.

I read somewhere Seabrook has lost some weight and looked much quicker. I guess its just same bs what Hitch told about Reaves, lost weight and looked quicker, but just look and compare these d-pairs.

2015-16 season

Keith - Seabrook
Hjalmarsson - TVR
Svedberg - Roszival
Gustafsson


2016-17 season

Keith - Seabrook
Hjalmarsson - Campbell
Kempny - TVR
Forsling/Roszival

 

[Bluesguru]

The style played last year worked only for last year. The league is transitioning in it's identity. In previous years, the Blues got smacked. The reason the team was better was not due to them playing heavy, but rather the play of young guns who added a lot of depth like Fabbri and Parayko. Parayko can fit in Hitch's heavy system, but Fabbri is all about skill and tenacity. Not really a massive bruiser. This, along with Elliott playing out of his mind, was the difference. Our heavy game, which failed previously for many years, wasn't the exact reason we had a good run. Steen and Shattenkirk are both great players, we shouldn't give them away. We all wanted to see a Shattenkirk trade, but it didn't happen. Maybe it will in the future.
You mention LA and Anaheim taking a step back because of cap issues but don't give the same credit to the Blues? In case you forgot, in the next 2 offseasons we have to resign Parayko, Fabbri, Stastny, Berglund, all guys who've made good contributions to the team and are arguably our core players, with extensions for Allen, Steen kicking in as well. If we sign Backes and Brouwer to those contracts we can't afford to bring back much of the guys mentioned and certainly wouldn't be able to afford quality depth. I won't even get started on how, based on play style and the aging it has on players, how in 2-3 years both Backes and Brouwer will be washed up and done. Both will be bottom 6 quality and potentially worse.
You mentioned young teams emerging, but don't bother to think the Blues, turning to a younger core (Tarasenko/Parayko/Schwartz/Petro/Fabbri/Allen are all 26 or younger) made their offseason decisions to keep the future in tact. We'll be able to compete fine with those emerging teams (assuming Armstrong can continue to bring in the youth and benefit the organization) because he choose to take a step back.
I'm in no way, shape or form attempting to praise Armstrong. I probably would've liked to see some differences and the biggest one is a Shattenkirk trade and further exploration of that possibility. I would've tried to lock Parayko up and probably wouldn't have extended Allen just in case he falters.

As for predictions, the Blues will most certainly be a playoff team. They'll likely see some bumps along the way but a top 3 spot in the Central is a very likely scenario. Nashville and Chicago/Dallas likely fill the other two spots. Dallas' goalies probably hurt, especially cause their defense is younger, worse and due for some growing pains. Chicago has a lot of depth questions. However Crawford is still very good and so is their core. They'll likely have some injuries (unlike last season) which will hurt and make them drop to the wildcard spot or 3rd. Nashville is the best team, assuming Subban and Johansen aren't as cancerous as they were and Rinne can at least hold his own.
As for Winnipeg and Colorado, I don't see it. Winnipeg will have growing pains and still has to figure out it's goalies. Colorado may have a better coach but is still trash.

I respectfully disagree about ignoring the heavy style. Totally agree about the kids making a difference last year, the kids took Army off the hot seat, but the emergence of the kids really solidified the team as a whole.

The Kings cap situation is horrendous. You should check it out. Kopitar's monster deal, their stuck with Dustin Brown for 6 more years. They got Gaborik locked up I believe. And the Ducks got 3 huge deals themselves with Perry, Getzlaf and Kessler. All the Blues had to do was get rid of Shattenkirk and Steen and you had the money to compensate for the losses of Backes and Brouwer.

Not sold on the idea that Brouwer will be washed up in 2 or 3 years. He's only 30, resigning him was equitable in my opinion. Backes, yes, the last 3 yr's of a 5 yr deal would be shaky.

Can't buy the bill of goods the Blues are trying to sell about their young core. Winnipeg has a young and deeper pool of prospects than the Blues. Calgary, Arizona and Edomonton with McDavid too. We as Blues fans want to believe in what we got, but truth is there's other teams out there with more dynamic young talent on the way.

Totally agree about locking up Parayko and holding off on signing Allen. I thought the Allen signing was way to premature. Let's see how he does first.

Oops, one more. I love Dean Lombardi's comment about all this talk about the game transitioning to more up tempo speed. The GM for the Kings said "I'm not into the flavor of the month" I love that. Wish Armstrong and the Blues were like that. Write your own story, and don't be a copy cat. A big strong heavy team with skill will always be a contender for the Cup. In my opinion that is.

Thanks for your take, enjoyed your post.

 

[Evocable Manager]

I respectfully disagree about ignoring the heavy style. Totally agree about the kids making a difference last year, the kids took Army off the hot seat, but the emergence of the kids really solidified the team as a whole.

The Kings cap situation is horrendous. You should check it out. Kopitar's monster deal, their stuck with Dustin Brown for 6 more years. They got Gaborik locked up I believe. And the Ducks got 3 huge deals themselves with Perry, Getzlaf and Kessler. All the Blues had to do was get rid of Shattenkirk and Steen and you had the money to compensate for the losses of Backes and Brouwer.

Not sold on the idea that Brouwer will be washed up in 2 or 3 years. He's only 30, resigning him was equitable in my opinion. Backes, yes, the last 3 yr's of a 5 yr deal would be shaky.

Can't buy the bill of goods the Blues are trying to sell about their young core. Winnipeg has a young and deeper pool of prospects than the Blues. Calgary, Arizona and Edomonton with McDavid too. We as Blues fans want to believe in what we got, but truth is there's other teams out there with more dynamic young talent on the way.

Totally agree about locking up Parayko and holding off on signing Allen. I thought the Allen signing was way to premature. Let's see how he does first.

Oops, one more. I love Dean Lombardi's comment about all this talk about the game transitioning to more up tempo speed. The GM for the Kings said "I'm not into the flavor of the month" I love that. Wish Armstrong and the Blues were like that. Write your own story, and don't be a copy cat. A big strong heavy team with skill will always be a contender for the Cup. In my opinion that is.

Thanks for your take, enjoyed your post.

The reason we won't be in the Kings cap situation is because we didn't sign Backes and Brouwer to those contracts.
Do you really think Troy Brouwer is worth 4.5M? He is a average 3rd liner, who had a hot end to the season. He had 13 points in his last 20 games, with a very unsustainable shot%. That trend carried into the playoffs. Looking at his previous playoff performances, I'd guess this was an anomaly year. He completely fed off Fabbri and Stastny. While he did get in the forcheck well and seemed to have sense for positioning in front of the net, he is nothing special and overpaid. Troy Brouwer was our version of Bryan Bickell or Ville Leino. The difference being he is a better NHL player, but isn't the worth contract received.
You covered Backes with the last half of the deal being questionable.

While Winnipeg and Arizona have better pools, we are already ahead. Not every prospect works out and some will, we are past the stage of being bottom feeders. Our core prospects have proven to be top tier NHL players with some on the rise still (Fabbri) and other guys in the system looking to come up (Dunn, Walman, Schmaltz). I'll agree forward wise we may be a step behind but you wanna compare the blue line? Our defense has Pietrangelo, Parayko, as still young defenders who can carry their partner against elite talent and Parayko could very easily become as good as Petro. Then Walman, Dunn, Schmaltz who are all top 4 caliber talents that are mobile and can move the puck. Not to mention Edmundson, Lindbohm, Sergeev, Mikkola, who can plug the holes in, in the future. There also isn't any indication Shattenkirk can't be resigned but since I doubt he will, I won't include him. There is no team with the same level of youth, talent and depth on the backend. Upfront we have a superstar in Tarasenko, but I'll agree other teams have potentially more.

One thing I have to ask is, why are you so afraid? Teams that are rebuilding often always looks so bright and upcoming and even scary. But not near every prospect fulfills their potential and it takes time. Rebuilds can take a long time, teams like Chicago, Pittsburgh, LA, were rebuilding for a while. Then it took some development and gained experience, with exception to Chicago (who won a cup in their 2nd return to the playoffs). Pittsburgh had a few playoff runs before they won and it took 7 years for another.

I won't bother arguing over philosophical views, whether you like the big bruising style or the fast and puck moving style. Personally, I don't have a clear preference but based on our best players (Tank, Schwartz, Petro, Kirk, Steen) we are probably best trying to be faster and more offensive rather then bruising because it fits our core better.

 

[carter333167]

The reason we won't be in the Kings cap situation is because we didn't sign Backes and Brouwer to those contracts.
Do you really think Troy Brouwer is worth 4.5M? He is a average 3rd liner, who had a hot end to the season. He had 13 points in his last 20 games, with a very unsustainable shot%. That trend carried into the playoffs. Looking at his previous playoff performances, I'd guess this was an anomaly year. He completely fed off Fabbri and Stastny. While he did get in the forcheck well and seemed to have sense for positioning in front of the net, he is nothing special and overpaid. Troy Brouwer was our version of Bryan Bickell or Ville Leino. The difference being he is a better NHL player, but isn't the worth contract received.
You covered Backes with the last half of the deal being questionable.

While Winnipeg and Arizona have better pools, we are already ahead. Not every prospect works out and some will, we are past the stage of being bottom feeders. Our core prospects have proven to be top tier NHL players with some on the rise still (Fabbri) and other guys in the system looking to come up (Dunn, Walman, Schmaltz). I'll agree forward wise we may be a step behind but you wanna compare the blue line? Our defense has Pietrangelo, Parayko, as still young defenders who can carry their partner against elite talent and Parayko could very easily become as good as Petro. Then Walman, Dunn, Schmaltz who are all top 4 caliber talents that are mobile and can move the puck. Not to mention Edmundson, Lindbohm, Sergeev, Mikkola, who can plug the holes in, in the future. There also isn't any indication Shattenkirk can't be resigned but since I doubt he will, I won't include him. There is no team with the same level of youth, talent and depth on the backend. Upfront we have a superstar in Tarasenko, but I'll agree other teams have potentially more.

One thing I have to ask is, why are you so afraid? Teams that are rebuilding often always looks so bright and upcoming and even scary. But not near every prospect fulfills their potential and it takes time. Rebuilds can take a long time, teams like Chicago, Pittsburgh, LA, were rebuilding for a while. Then it took some development and gained experience, with exception to Chicago (who won a cup in their 2nd return to the playoffs). Pittsburgh had a few playoff runs before they won and it took 7 years for another.

I won't bother arguing over philosophical views, whether you like the big bruising style or the fast and puck moving style. Personally, I don't have a clear preference but based on our best players (Tank, Schwartz, Petro, Kirk, Steen) we are probably best trying to be faster and more offensive rather then bruising because it fits our core better.

Yep...we have very good skill and talent. I'm most worried about Hitch adapting to a supposedly faster and more skill-based system. He always seems to revert to defensive grinding...less minutes for the skill players....unreasonably high minutes for some of the grinders.

Parayko and Fabs really took an already good team to another level last year.

 

[Renard]

I really can't guess how the Blues will do this year.

Two of our most stable, consistent players last year were Backes and Elliott. They are both gone. Allen has some very big skates to fill and I'm not sure he can fill them. We have other options if Allen can't do the job, so I'm not predicting team failure, either.

Who takes Backes' job? No one player, really. Getting Sobotka would have helped a lot in the area of hitting and penalty kill and defensive zone faceoffs, but we somehow didn't get him. Instead, we have three guys who we will depend on to make contributions at right wing, and they are all tough to handicap. Will Jaskin come through? Perron? Yakupov?


I don't know which way the team will go. But I'm glad Ken Hitchcock is still at the helm. I know he is reviled by many members of the forum, but I trust that Hitch can keep the Blues from tanking while we figure out who we are as a team.

 

[2 Minute Minor]

I thought Hitchcock's recent comments were very interesting, regarding the changes this year. He said something to the effect, "Its not a new style, just changing where we get the puck (on turn-overs) to a different part of the ice. We'll do the same thing offensively."

Basically referring to adjustments on the forecheck and the neutral ice play. I think many of us were frustrated at how easily the defense gave up the blue line last year, and it sounds like this may be changing. But he also said something about giving it 20 games, and not being afraid to dial back to what they did last season if its not working. But that he will give the guys time to learn it, buy into it and execute it well. Sounds like he expected to be investing into something that will pay off later, but may be bumpy at first.

I think folks expecting a dramatically different style utilizing speed and aggressive attacks will be disappointed. To me, I think of the defense that Minnesota played vs the Blues in the playoff series, and that's what I think the Blues are going to try to emulate.

 

[execwrite]

My guess - the Blues struggle a bit, stay around the .500 mark in October and November while the new system settles in.

Better run coming toward late season as the kids keep growing up.

If Allen gets hot, could be a nice playoff run but no Cup this year.

 

[Robb_K]

I expect The Blues to finish 2nd or 3rd in The Central, depending on how quickly their young players and Yakupov pick up Yeo's new system. I expect them to play well near the end of the season, and to win their Round 1 series. I expect them to play competitively in The 2nd Round, but lose in a close series (4-3 or 4-2).

 

[Bluesguru]

The reason we won't be in the Kings cap situation is because we didn't sign Backes and Brouwer to those contracts.
Do you really think Troy Brouwer is worth 4.5M? He is a average 3rd liner, who had a hot end to the season. He had 13 points in his last 20 games, with a very unsustainable shot%. That trend carried into the playoffs. Looking at his previous playoff performances, I'd guess this was an anomaly year. He completely fed off Fabbri and Stastny. While he did get in the forcheck well and seemed to have sense for positioning in front of the net, he is nothing special and overpaid. Troy Brouwer was our version of Bryan Bickell or Ville Leino. The difference being he is a better NHL player, but isn't the worth contract received.
You covered Backes with the last half of the deal being questionable.

While Winnipeg and Arizona have better pools, we are already ahead. Not every prospect works out and some will, we are past the stage of being bottom feeders. Our core prospects have proven to be top tier NHL players with some on the rise still (Fabbri) and other guys in the system looking to come up (Dunn, Walman, Schmaltz). I'll agree forward wise we may be a step behind but you wanna compare the blue line? Our defense has Pietrangelo, Parayko, as still young defenders who can carry their partner against elite talent and Parayko could very easily become as good as Petro. Then Walman, Dunn, Schmaltz who are all top 4 caliber talents that are mobile and can move the puck. Not to mention Edmundson, Lindbohm, Sergeev, Mikkola, who can plug the holes in, in the future. There also isn't any indication Shattenkirk can't be resigned but since I doubt he will, I won't include him. There is no team with the same level of youth, talent and depth on the backend. Upfront we have a superstar in Tarasenko, but I'll agree other teams have potentially more.

One thing I have to ask is, why are you so afraid? Teams that are rebuilding often always looks so bright and upcoming and even scary. But not near every prospect fulfills their potential and it takes time. Rebuilds can take a long time, teams like Chicago, Pittsburgh, LA, were rebuilding for a while. Then it took some development and gained experience, with exception to Chicago (who won a cup in their 2nd return to the playoffs). Pittsburgh had a few playoff runs before they won and it took 7 years for another.

I won't bother arguing over philosophical views, whether you like the big bruising style or the fast and puck moving style. Personally, I don't have a clear preference but based on our best players (Tank, Schwartz, Petro, Kirk, Steen) we are probably best trying to be faster and more offensive rather then bruising because it fits our core better.

Excellent post, you make very good points, especially about the rebuilding teams. After watching the Blues play the first 2 games I'm beginning to think it doesn't matter who you plug in to play Hitch's system, at least in terms of regular season play. The man can coach. Guess I should of known better, we saw it last year when the Blues had all those injuries. Playoffs is still a different story but I'm intrigued by the Shattenkirk situation. What Armstrong does with him will largely determine how much of a Stanley Cup threat the Blues are next spring.

 

[Ranksu]

Few games and we're out of playoff spot.

 

[Renard]

I really can't guess how the Blues will do this year.

Two of our most stable, consistent players last year were Backes and Elliott. They are both gone. Allen has some very big skates to fill and I'm not sure he can fill them. We have other options if Allen can't do the job, so I'm not predicting team failure, either.

Who takes Backes' job? No one player, really. Getting Sobotka would have helped a lot in the area of hitting and penalty kill and defensive zone faceoffs, but we somehow didn't get him. Instead, we have three guys who we will depend on to make contributions at right wing, and they are all tough to handicap. Will Jaskin come through? Perron? Yakupov?


I don't know which way the team will go. But I'm glad Ken Hitchcock is still at the helm. I know he is reviled by many members of the forum, but I trust that Hitch can keep the Blues from tanking while we figure out who we are as a team.

Well, I was prophetic about Allen (although lots of others were concerned too) but I didn't foresee Hutton struggles.