2015 Playoff Talk

[BigG44]

Today, Dallas made an obvious statement that they think they can make the playoffs this year. Here is their current situation.

I already looked at some worst case scenarios if Dallas was 5 points back on trade deadline day in a different thread. I though I'd play with some numbers to try and find a positive angle. These projections do not just look at overall points percentage. Instead, I broke down the teams home and away points percentage to project their current total at the end of the year. This way teams like LA wouldn't get a bump for their fantastic home record. LA has more away games than home, and they've got a terrible road record. I feel this method will give us the best guess at where teams are headed for now.

Seed|Team|Points
5|WINNIPEG| 97
6|CALGARY |96
7|VANCOUVER |96
8|SAN JOSE |94
9|MINNESOTA |92
10|LOS ANGELES |88
11|DALLAS |88
12|COLORADO |84

These projections don't factor in tonight's games.

So ... do you think adding Enroth will earn Dallas an additional 7 points to catch and pass SJ? With 28 games remaining, that would mean Dallas earned 37 of 56 points or a winning percentage of 66.1%.

Keep in mind that for the season, Dallas has accumulated 53.7% of available points to this point in the season. In the last 28 games, Dallas essentially needs to go 16-6-5.

Like Razor said ... they need one run of 8 or 9 wins in 10 games. If they can pick up 17 points in a 10 game stretch, they'd only have to pick up 20 points in the other 18 games or go 8-6-4.

So what do you think? Can they get to 95 points? One hot 10 game stretch and some .555 hockey could make them catch SJ.

Click to read more...

 

[dechire]

Can they ? Yes I really think they can. Will they ? Ehhhh. The next few games are make or break.

 

[Stars99Lobo37]

Because issue this season, imo, has been consistency. The only thing they've been consistent about is being inconsistent.

I'm honestly hoping Enroth can come in and steal the spotlight and Kari's starting spot.

 

[SonicSpeedDash]

Just need someone like Phaneuf and send Jordie to the moon.

 

[jhr1986]

No chance. Ok, well technically there is a mathematical chance, but still no chance.

 

[Klockis]

No chance. Ok, well technically there is a mathematical chance, but still no chance.

My thoughts exactly. I'm not getting my hopes up.

 

[Satan]

not getting my hopes up.

 

[FrailSwan]

I'm numb.

 

[Rune Forumwalker]

Today, Dallas made an obvious statement that they think they can make the playoffs this year.

I'd say it's both a move for the playoffs and the future. Or at least I'm hoping this is also another plan by Nill to get that solid backup or 1A/1B tandem that the team has been needing for a while.

 

[TestGrave]

I will only get my hopes up if there is a trade for this #1/#2 defender the Stars need... And that hopefully soon... All I care about atm are Seguin/Klingberg points and that Enroth does well and gets extended (if he does)...

 

[MBTendy]

First thing that came to mind ... Seriously though, playoffs??

 

[Elysian]

I think we can, especially if a team falters. Dunno if we will, but I'll still keep torturing myself watching games.

 

[Hull Fan]

It's almost not even about what Dallas does. If Vancouver, Winnipeg, San Jose, LA and Minn keep picking up points like they are it won't matter how good or bad the Stars are. Every time I look at the scores for the night at least one of those 5 teams is in OT and it seems like have the time they're giving extra points to someone else in that group.

Nothing about Dallas so far this season says, yes this is a playoff team for sure. I don't expect it but do wonder now that Enroth has been bought would selling the other UFAs still be on the table if Dallas is 4/5 points out on the TDL?

 

[FrailSwan]

That's a valid point. Seeing as we relied on Phoenix blowing their chance at the very end of the stretch last season.

 

[masinaLFC]

Highly unlikely.. 14th pick here we come

 

[BigG44]

I don't expect it but do wonder now that Enroth has been bought would selling the other UFAs still be on the table if Dallas is 4/5 points out on the TDL?

That still should be on the table. The move would have been better earlier if they could have pulled it off, but they have just under 2.5 weeks to put a dent in the deficit. It can take a month to gain 2 or 3 points on a pack when you're talking about 7 other teams.

For example, at the all star break, they were bouncing around between 3 and 5 points back ... and they had games in hand. They've lost ground since that point.


It's bleak. We know Dallas could win 8 or 9 out of 10. They've done it this season. That's pretty much their only hope. Not impossible, but if they gain no ground I would expect Nill to still make some moves if the price was fair. Last year's prices for the most part were awful and low. Hopefully this year won't be a repeat.

 

[Indianation65]

Playoff talk? Maybe in a couple of weeks...

 

[NukeJukes43]

I think most of you are missing the point of this post.
Nill doesn't care what we think of them making the playoffs. This move means they plan to try, if we start winning games I think we'll inevitably pick up Phaneuf to try and make a serious run.

So ignore whether or not we will actually make it.

Nichushkin and Nemeth coming back and both hungry to play can be great for us on the verge of post-season. also I'm pretty stoked about Enroth. He not only brings competition to Kari but he'll help us answer a lot of questions about Mike Valley. If Enroth regresses that should be a big bright red flag for Nill to can Valley.

I kinda hope we move Eakin in a package but I really doubt that will happen, atleast until off-season. He'd be a good chip to help us fetch a d-man and maybe a 2nd line scoring winger. I just think he has lost his game a bit and might be good for him to get bumped back up to 2c somewhere else.

 

[BigG44]

I think most of you are missing the point of this post.
Nill doesn't care what we think of them making the playoffs. This move means they plan to try

That's a pretty good way to put what I was getting at. I still do think it's interesting to talk about whether you think they have the ability to pull it off.

That's why one of the questions I posed was, is the addition of Enroth a 7 point bump in the standings. Personally I don't think so.

I don't believe Dallas had any chance of any keeping pace without him. In the 5 back to backs ... they would have played Kari probably 8 of the 10 games. I bet we would have won 3 or 4 ... maybe 5 of those games.

With Enroth ... I bet they do have a reasonable shot at coming away with 6 in those B2Bs, but those extra points gained will only help them keep pace in my mind. IDK that he's enough to keep pace and make up the difference.

You posed another great question though. Say we do have faith that Enroth is the answer to at least keep us in the mix ... maybe even make up a point or two. Would Nuke and Nemeth alone close the gap the rest of the way?

I'm not so quick to say yes. I've previously said I'm very optimistic about Nemeth's recovery and performance coming back from injury. Unfortunately he's experienced at coming back mid season from long injuries for one thing, but a wrist injury won't hurt the most important part of his game significantly. It could cause some issues shoving guys away from the net, but I think he could compensate with his overall strength. It's not going to hinder his ability to read and react to plays or pin guys to the board by leaning his heavy body on them. He was displaying some extra offensive burst in the first 4 games, and that could take a hit for the remainder of this year. I still think he could be highly effective

Nuke I'm not so sure about. He's only 19 year's old, and his injury prevented him from staying in any kind of shape with skating. Nemeth will need to get in game shape, but his lower body strength and skate will be fine. Nuke is going to be a step slower for some time. Look at what Klingberg looked like first getting on the ice after the surgery in the pre-season and where he is now.

Both players coming back is for sure a positive, but neither is a lock to contribute significantly. Nuke may be only able to contribute in a limited, 4th line role. Unless he destroys realistic expectations, he's not stepping into the lineup on Seguin's wing or Spezza's and scoring consistently.

 

[MetalGodAOD*]

I agree, I don't think we can expect Nemeth or Nuke to be game changers this year when they return. We'll need consistent play from the current lineup, goaltending mostly.

 

[NukeJukes43]

I'm pretty sure I read that Nemeth was eager to get back on the ice and I just as much figured that meant he had confidence in his game and strength to play effectively.

But for the record I agree Nuke will take a bit longer than Nemeth. I just think with Nemeths injury being more of a freak accident than anything by else that he won't be as hindered coming back. Not to say his injury wasn't bad' just that its not gonna keep him out of shape physically all that much. But who knows maybe he'll be weak on the stick for a few weeks.

 

[Elysian]

It's almost not even about what Dallas does. If Vancouver, Winnipeg, San Jose, LA and Minn keep picking up points like they are it won't matter how good or bad the Stars are. Every time I look at the scores for the night at least one of those 5 teams is in OT and it seems like have the time they're giving extra points to someone else in that group.

Nothing about Dallas so far this season says, yes this is a playoff team for sure. I don't expect it but do wonder now that Enroth has been bought would selling the other UFAs still be on the table if Dallas is 4/5 points out on the TDL?

I think our offense is a playoff offense. I think we could be a playoff team if we get the goaltending we need and the Jordie stays off the defense.

 

[Cin]

With Nemeth not wearing red anymore I think playoffs are absolutely still possible. If Nill does, I do too.

 

[JeffP]

i just hope that if we don't make it.. that doesn't mean Enroth will just walk :\
because its statistically unlikely.. I wish we'd figured out how to trade like 10-15 games prior .. a bit late imho.

 

[Cin]

i just hope that if we don't make it.. that doesn't mean Enroth will just walk :\
because its statistically unlikely.. I wish we'd figured out how to trade like 10-15 games prior .. a bit late imho.

I agree with this point very much! I think you're onto something!