Prospect Info: 2015 NHL Draft Discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
4,380
Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
ES Pts/GP
Nurse .38
Ekblad .35
Koekkoek .35
Andersson .31
Bigras .25

It's not like his even strength numbers are bad?

A familiar face and 2 guys who were considered top O-dmen in same draft:
Josh Morrissey in his draft year: 0.31
Ryan Pulock: 0.35
Shea Theodore: 0.31



I do like some of those guys though Joe. Dunn, Pilon, and Juulsen especially.
 
Last edited:

Grind

Stomacheache AllStar
Jan 25, 2012
6,539
127
Manitoba
I think with guys like Andersson is that if you like your D men to be solid in the defensive end then you are going to come away with a bad taste in your mouth when you watch him play. I worry about his lack of 5v5 production.

Now I can also attribute a lot of that too his adjustment period to the NA game. His adjustment to physical level of play here. It is a big adjustment.
I think I might forgive him if he was 6'3 200 and making offensive plays like that because you could see him getting stronger as he got older.

I don't think I would take him in the 2nd. 3rd round and later seems more likely. I fear he is more likely to head home to Sweden for an easy paycheck in a less physical league like the SEL.

The Jets with that 2nd round pick may well be looking at a D man there. But would they better off going after Juulsen or Wotherspoon or Dunn or Pilon?



This is an interesting debate because it is a perfect example of the Stats vs Traditional Scouting issue.


Geurzy and Joe I respect your guys opinions because you do watch a lot more junior then I do, but I think this is a classic example of the "Scouted" negatives being applied with too heavy of a weight.


From a stastixal standpoint, Anderson has performed like a top 10-15 pick as far as dmen. That's huge. That's really really really good.

So think of that as your starting position. Now start applying the knocks you've seen (and also elimimate the logical fallacies -either being in the alveskan developed him more or developed him less cant be both) and rethink where you've put him.

If you still think these knocks are worth that much weight I urge you to rethink just how effective traditional scouting has been versus such basic statistical testing as points per minute.

I could maybe see an argument pushing him into the top 1/3rd of the second, but beyond that your saying abpkayer who has performed at elite levels is a third round talent...
 

Grind

Stomacheache AllStar
Jan 25, 2012
6,539
127
Manitoba
ES Pts/GP
Nurse .38
Ekblad .35
Koekkoek .35
Andersson .31
Bigras .25

It's not like his even strength numbers are bad?

A familiar face and 2 guys who were considered top O-dmen in same draft:
Josh Morrissey in his draft year: 0.31
Ryan Pulock: 0.35
Shea Theodore: 0.31



I do like some of those guys though Joe. Dunn, Pilon, and Juulsen especially.


Wasn't Morrissey's .31 5v5 scoring why we loved him?
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
4,380
Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
Wasn't Morrissey's .31 5v5 scoring why we loved him?

There was an article by Copper and Blue where someone was comparing ES scoring of multiple draftees... Unfortunately that article only used Morrissey's PP goals as PP points, and accidentally placed Morrissey's PP assists as ES points.

There were other factors though, like age adjusting Morrissey vs Pulock and QoC Morrissey saw was extremely high.
 

Joe Hallenback

Moderator
Mar 4, 2005
15,396
21,611
This is an interesting debate because it is a perfect example of the Stats vs Traditional Scouting issue.


Geurzy and Joe I respect your guys opinions because you do watch a lot more junior then I do, but I think this is a classic example of the "Scouted" negatives being applied with too heavy of a weight.


From a stastixal standpoint, Anderson has performed like a top 10-15 pick as far as dmen. That's huge. That's really really really good.

So think of that as your starting position. Now start applying the knocks you've seen (and also elimimate the logical fallacies -either being in the alveskan developed him more or developed him less cant be both) and rethink where you've put him.

If you still think these knocks are worth that much weight I urge you to rethink just how effective traditional scouting has been versus such basic statistical testing as points per minute.

I could maybe see an argument pushing him into the top 1/3rd of the second, but beyond that your saying abpkayer who has performed at elite levels is a third round talent...

One thing I will say though. Is if anything the Jets will have done their homework on this guy. They have a couple dedicated OHL scouts, plus access to Hawerchuk. If they do say take him in the 2nd, I am pretty confident they viewed him enough to get a feeling for him.

btw Craig Button likes him a lot
 

Grind

Stomacheache AllStar
Jan 25, 2012
6,539
127
Manitoba
One thing I will say though. Is if anything the Jets will have done their homework on this guy. They have a couple dedicated OHL scouts, plus access to Hawerchuk. If they do say take him in the 2nd, I am pretty confident they viewed him enough to get a feeling for him.

btw Craig Button likes him a lot


So far he jets have me convinced they have a good scouting depot.

The pickups of De Leo and lodge in particular also make me think that they are in tune with the importance of statistical production (ignoring nelson nogier... :P )

Honestly I'd be very OK with one of our first a being used on him depending on whose still on the board. Be ecstatic to grab him with our second
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
4,380
Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
I think we all agree that Andersson isn't as good as his exceptional numbers.

The difference is in the "by how much"... I just find that he's being overly critiqued for this. People perform exceptionally for reasons. One of the reasons is talent, then there are other possibilities like shooting percentages, teammates, soft minutes, etc.

To me, you don't get exceptional numbers 3 times in 2 different leagues if you are not doing some things right. To me, you don't play against men in a non-developmental league that's about winning now unless you have an overall game a coach respects.

I see the same criticisms due to particular attributes, but believe them to be heavily overweighted. This boils down to a major chunk of what I do is based on.

I think the eye test is good in detecting strengths and weaknesses. It knows attributes. I think the eye test is fairly bad in detecting how all these come together overall.

I think his numbers are mid 1st rounder, but his true talent is late 1st rounder to early 2nd.
Some here are saying true talent is late 2nd to early 3rd.
 

buggs

screenshot
Sponsor
Jun 25, 2012
8,727
10,974
somewhere flat
So far he jets have me convinced they have a good scouting depot.

The pickups of De Leo and lodge in particular also make me think that they are in tune with the importance of statistical production (ignoring nelson nogier... :P )

Honestly I'd be very OK with one of our first a being used on him depending on whose still on the board. Be ecstatic to grab him with our second


Wasn't Nogier out with a broken leg or something for the front half of his draft season?
 

Jetabre

Electric Ehlers
May 22, 2014
8,328
1,972
Winterpeg
I think Boeser should get a good look for our later 1st rounder. Could use another goal scoring winger in the system. He has pretty good size as well. Unless of course we took Timo Meier with our earlier first. ;)
 

Joe Hallenback

Moderator
Mar 4, 2005
15,396
21,611
Wasn't Morrissey's .31 5v5 scoring why we loved him?

I was thinking about this and I can't remember what I would have thought but it went along the lines that the Jets scouting knows what it is doing.

I became enamored with Morrissey the year after his draft more so then before.

My viewings of Anderrsson are limited and only from online games. I think his stats look good and I would think you would have to combine that with someone who watched him play 20+ times to get a good read on him.

If the Jets took him in the 2nd I wouldn't be crying about it though. Be interesting to see how these guys look in 5 years and come back to this thread
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,075
33,132
I think Boeser should get a good look for our later 1st rounder. Could use another goal scoring winger in the system. He has pretty good size as well. Unless of course we took Timo Meier with our earlier first. ;)

Boeser or Sprong? I wonder if the Jets like either, and if so, who they like better.
 

Guerzy

I'm a fricken baby
Jan 16, 2005
39,854
3,121
I wasn't comparing Andersson's numbers to other OHL draft eligible defensemen but to all defensemen drafted over multiple years in modern era.

Here I hand selected some of the best statistical specimens coming out of the OHL over past 4 seasons:
CCAP7ItW4AIRNXM.png

There are a few more defensive defensemen added here for two reasons: scaling context, and to show that most successful defensive defensemen still were pretty decent scorers in junior.

I know that the Colts are a high scoring team, but Andersson drives a lot of this offense. The second and third numbers in those columns help show that. They show how his age adjusted points per game is probably more inflated then Ekblad, but that he legitimately put up good point production relative to his competition. In addition, it's not like he didn't have success before his time with the big 3, since he scored a record setting amount in the SHL2 as a U17 defenseman which also is the second highest if you include forwards.

When I watch him I see a smart player. He doesn't have perfect skating mechanics but he still gets from point A to point B very well despite them. He has a great first pass and is a smart distributer. His shot isn't booming but it's decent and the best part is he is highly effective in threading it through the opposition. He isn't the greatest defensively but all issues seem coachable and he tends to play it smart enough that his mistakes never seem to end up as "oh ****" moments.

You talked about having a head start from being in the SHL2 for two season, but he's also one of the most improved 1st half to 2nd half defenders in the CHL. He was played against men for two seasons because he's good, not he's good because he played against men for two seasons. You say he isn't a finished product (which really is true for all kids in the draft) eluding that he has more to develop than others but also penalize his abilities for past experience which is essentially saying experience has him more developed than others... a bit contradictory.

In short, I see a player that has the hockey IQ to make up for his limited toolbox. I see a player who has numbers slightly inflated, but people are overly punishing him for it. I see a player who doesn't wow which people expect offensive producers to do, and they are overly punishing him for it.

All prospects are a game of probability. There's no real sure things. However, I would not mind betting on Andersson being one of the better defenders in the draft. Not Hanafin, Werenski, Provorov, Kylington good. But I still put him in the next tier with guys like Roy et al.

Sorry, I should have clarified that part re; other OHL defenseman prospects. I was more so referring to..

Despite having high scorers, Andersson's still scoring a lot on their points. He picks up a point on 23% of the team's goals when he's on the ice, which only Vande Sompel beats for draft guys in OHL.

His estimated TOI/GP is within the same tier as Vande Sompel and Dunne but is the higher in the tier, although he has a bit less ES TOI than them.

Slightly better than plus/minus, his relative ES goal percentage is a +7%, which is team's goal % with him on ice minus him on bench.

I still say he's boarder line first. I also say his literally historical performance in the Swedish mens leagues should be viewed as a bonus, not a detractor.

As for him playing in the mens league in Sweden prior to coming to the OHL, I'll try and clarify what I meant. I didn't intend for it to come across as a knock on him, directly, I just have some caution with it. In my years watching the OHL, you can have a more experienced player for example, who you can tell is never going to make it in the NHL but his production is great in the OHL and his game looks fairly dominant relative to his peers and competition, if that makes sense. For a lot of guys the experience on top of getting the icetime/usage, and playing in a good situation gets them their offensive production. You see guys score at good rates in the OHL then when they graduate and advance to the AHL or NHL they hit the wall. Were they really as good as their production? or was it more experience + icetime/usage + situation? They're really not as good as those numbers indicated. This is where I was drawing to in regards to Andersson coming to the OHL at what I consider more polished and experienced in terms of playing against men for two years and then coming to play against teenagers. Yes he had some adjustments to make but I do believe playing against men in Sweden made the transition relatively easy(er) for him. I couple that experience factor with his icetime/usage (really the only offensive defenseman on Barrie) + situation (highly offensive team), and I think his point-per-game season has more to do with these factors combined than it does with Andersson himself being a top talent.

I see a defenseman who was the one man show and only real offensive defenseman on Barrie's blueline, thus he got (and earned, of course... i'm not trying to discredit him here) the minutes/ice time/usage, to having three 100+ point forwards (on one team, which in the OHL is near unheard of). I just believe Andersson's "situation" benefited him greatly statistically speaking and I don't believe his offensive numbers and stats are as good and pure of the player he is given his skillset, pros and cons to his game, etc. So to draw from his offensive numbers I just don't completely buy it. Not when you have a defenseman who is on the smaller side + doesn't possess great mobility/skating ability + on the poorer side defensively in his reads and awareness. I'm just not buying what's being sold here. I believe he would have fallen in the 30-35, maybe 40 point range and given the collective pros and cons to his game at this point, I personally doubt many are talking about him too much, certainly not as a late 1st round talent. And we wouldn't be seeing these number comparisons to the likes of Ekblad, Subban, others, etc. I believe his production stems from more of a product of his situation than his natural skillset, tools, overall package as a defenseman.

At the end of the day perhaps we are closer to agreement on Andersson than farther away, but we'll agree to disagree on whether he is a 1st round talent/pick. Given you say "Not Hanafin, Werenski, Provorov, Kylington good. But I still put him in the next tier with guys like Roy et al.".. I can't really argue with that since there are a crop of defenseman (from the OHL, where I am familiar with) such as Vande Sompel, Dunn, Andersson, Bouramman, Dermott, Capobianco, Spencer, etc, which, as I said, I personally don't believe many, if any, of those defenseman become top 4 defenders in the NHL.

In short, I question and have cautions with his skating/mobility, lack of size/reach, defensive awareness/IQ, doesn't possess a booming hard shot, albeit like I said in my report, he seems to be a natural at keeping the puck on the ice and getting it on net.
 

Grind

Stomacheache AllStar
Jan 25, 2012
6,539
127
Manitoba
Sorry, I should have clarified that part re; other OHL defenseman prospects. I was more so referring to..



As for him playing in the mens league in Sweden prior to coming to the OHL, I'll try and clarify what I meant. I didn't intend for it to come across as a knock on him, directly, I just have some caution with it. In my years watching the OHL, you can have a more experienced player for example, who you can tell is never going to make it in the NHL but his production is great in the OHL and his game looks fairly dominant relative to his peers and competition, if that makes sense. For a lot of guys the experience on top of getting the icetime/usage, and playing in a good situation gets them their offensive production. You see guys score at good rates in the OHL then when they graduate and advance to the AHL or NHL they hit the wall. Were they really as good as their production? or was it more experience + icetime/usage + situation? They're really not as good as those numbers indicated. This is where I was drawing to in regards to Andersson coming to the OHL at what I consider more polished and experienced in terms of playing against men for two years and then coming to play against teenagers. Yes he had some adjustments to make but I do believe playing against men in Sweden made the transition relatively easy(er) for him. I couple that experience factor with his icetime/usage (really the only offensive defenseman on Barrie) + situation (highly offensive team), and I think his point-per-game season has more to do with these factors combined than it does with Andersson himself being a top talent.

I see a defenseman who was the one man show and only real offensive defenseman on Barrie's blueline, thus he got (and earned, of course... i'm not trying to discredit him here) the minutes/ice time/usage, to having three 100+ point forwards (on one team, which in the OHL is near unheard of). I just believe Andersson's "situation" benefited him greatly statistically speaking and I don't believe his offensive numbers and stats are as good and pure of the player he is given his skillset, pros and cons to his game, etc. So to draw from his offensive numbers I just don't completely buy it. Not when you have a defenseman who is on the smaller side + doesn't possess great mobility/skating ability + on the poorer side defensively in his reads and awareness. I'm just not buying what's being sold here. I believe he would have fallen in the 30-35, maybe 40 point range and given the collective pros and cons to his game at this point, I personally doubt many are talking about him too much, certainly not as a late 1st round talent. And we wouldn't be seeing these number comparisons to the likes of Ekblad, Subban, others, etc. I believe his production stems from more of a product of his situation than his natural skillset, tools, overall package as a defenseman.

At the end of the day perhaps we are closer to agreement on Andersson than farther away, but we'll agree to disagree on whether he is a 1st round talent/pick. Given you say "Not Hanafin, Werenski, Provorov, Kylington good. But I still put him in the next tier with guys like Roy et al.".. I can't really argue with that since there are a crop of defenseman (from the OHL, where I am familiar with) such as Vande Sompel, Dunn, Andersson, Bouramman, Dermott, Capobianco, Spencer, etc, which, as I said, I personally don't believe many, if any, of those defenseman become top 4 defenders in the NHL.

In short, I question and have cautions with his skating/mobility, lack of size/reach, defensive awareness/IQ, doesn't possess a booming hard shot, albeit like I said in my report, he seems to be a natural at keeping the puck on the ice and getting it on net.


I won't speak for Garrett but I still think your putting too much emphasis on your eyes and what " talk" is.

Eyes and talk have proven to be only marginally better (often worse) predictors of success when applied with the amount of weight they historically have, then statistical production, when reduced to points per minute.

Yes you add context, but its unfair to knock the player for context without applying additional context to everyone.

I didn't say he had elite talent like subban etc, I said he had elite production. It shouldn't be a surprise that "the talk" has not put him in the subban category as the thing he is elite at is exactly what "the talk" has a history of ignoring. And that informant has now been proven to be far more detrimental then professional scouts would like to admit.

Essentially I see your knocks. They come down to bad mobility, weak shot, bad in the d zone.

That's contrasted against obvious trust of coach, elite point production, proven ability to perform against men at a young age.

Now...can that really justify that low of a ranking?

Consider this, players who scored similarly to him and are within 2 inches of the same height have become NHLRs over 60%*(have to double check this) of the time. That's one of the highest rates of all dmen in this draft.

EDIT EDIT: double checked. there have been 15 dmen drafted that performed similarly to Rasmus Andersson and are within 1 inch in height. 11 of them became nhl players. that's a success rate of 73%. Furthermore, the majority of them became similar Point generators in the NHL . on the high end you have subband and doughty, on the low end you have yannick weber and Michael Del Zotto.

73% of being an NHL player, with majority of that 73 being 2nd pairing or better. Now of course you have reasons to believe why he may be more likely to be in the 37% catagorie. But really....are they REALLY strong enough reasons to weigh him down as much as you have? Keep in mind, your essentially walking the exact same path of those before you, those that have already proven to be very inefficient.
 
Last edited:

Guerzy

I'm a fricken baby
Jan 16, 2005
39,854
3,121
I've looked at the stats, and watched live, thus formed opinions and come to conclusions on my personal report. I trust my knowledge, instincts and experience in watching hockey at the OHL for the years I have.

We can agree to disagree.
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
4,380
Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
Sorry, I should have clarified that part re; other OHL defenseman prospects. I was more so referring to..



As for him playing in the mens league in Sweden prior to coming to the OHL, I'll try and clarify what I meant. I didn't intend for it to come across as a knock on him, directly, I just have some caution with it. In my years watching the OHL, you can have a more experienced player for example, who you can tell is never going to make it in the NHL but his production is great in the OHL and his game looks fairly dominant relative to his peers and competition, if that makes sense. For a lot of guys the experience on top of getting the icetime/usage, and playing in a good situation gets them their offensive production. You see guys score at good rates in the OHL then when they graduate and advance to the AHL or NHL they hit the wall. Were they really as good as their production? or was it more experience + icetime/usage + situation? They're really not as good as those numbers indicated. This is where I was drawing to in regards to Andersson coming to the OHL at what I consider more polished and experienced in terms of playing against men for two years and then coming to play against teenagers. Yes he had some adjustments to make but I do believe playing against men in Sweden made the transition relatively easy(er) for him. I couple that experience factor with his icetime/usage (really the only offensive defenseman on Barrie) + situation (highly offensive team), and I think his point-per-game season has more to do with these factors combined than it does with Andersson himself being a top talent.

I see a defenseman who was the one man show and only real offensive defenseman on Barrie's blueline, thus he got (and earned, of course... i'm not trying to discredit him here) the minutes/ice time/usage, to having three 100+ point forwards (on one team, which in the OHL is near unheard of). I just believe Andersson's "situation" benefited him greatly statistically speaking and I don't believe his offensive numbers and stats are as good and pure of the player he is given his skillset, pros and cons to his game, etc. So to draw from his offensive numbers I just don't completely buy it. Not when you have a defenseman who is on the smaller side + doesn't possess great mobility/skating ability + on the poorer side defensively in his reads and awareness. I'm just not buying what's being sold here. I believe he would have fallen in the 30-35, maybe 40 point range and given the collective pros and cons to his game at this point, I personally doubt many are talking about him too much, certainly not as a late 1st round talent. And we wouldn't be seeing these number comparisons to the likes of Ekblad, Subban, others, etc. I believe his production stems from more of a product of his situation than his natural skillset, tools, overall package as a defenseman.

At the end of the day perhaps we are closer to agreement on Andersson than farther away, but we'll agree to disagree on whether he is a 1st round talent/pick. Given you say "Not Hanafin, Werenski, Provorov, Kylington good. But I still put him in the next tier with guys like Roy et al.".. I can't really argue with that since there are a crop of defenseman (from the OHL, where I am familiar with) such as Vande Sompel, Dunn, Andersson, Bouramman, Dermott, Capobianco, Spencer, etc, which, as I said, I personally don't believe many, if any, of those defenseman become top 4 defenders in the NHL.

In short, I question and have cautions with his skating/mobility, lack of size/reach, defensive awareness/IQ, doesn't possess a booming hard shot, albeit like I said in my report, he seems to be a natural at keeping the puck on the ice and getting it on net.

I still disagree with your pro point. Like I said, he's not just performing superiorly this season, but did last season, and has been improving faster than most as his 1st half vs 2nd half is superior. If it was the pro giving him a slight advantage at the start, you wouldn't expect him to be accelerating throughout the season more so than most his competition.
So you got a car that doesn't look as good, but is further, going faster, and accelerating faster.

While your point may be in response to that OHL comment, the story doesn't change when expanding to other seasons for comparisons. His estimated TOI isn't inflated, his ES point production isn't deflated, his impact and contribution to his teams is in the high ends (as seen by his GC/GP and %ofTmPoints) so he doesn't look to be riding offense but driving offense. So while you talk about his team strength, PP usage, and TOI, it seems that the data doesn't coincide with that hypothesis.

To add some context:
If you can see when scoring is legitimately not likely to translate, you are probably doing better than 60-70% of NHL scouting teams.

This is why I'm sceptical that you are penalizing Andersson for the attributes appropriately. The overall trend seems to be that scoring is undervalued and tools are overvalued when you look why scouting has been as inefficient as it has been.
Attributes are what combine to make the results, but when results differ from what you measure the attributes to combine, you can't just assume your opinion on how the attributes add up works out.
 
Last edited:

Guerzy

I'm a fricken baby
Jan 16, 2005
39,854
3,121
To add some context:

If you can see when scoring is legitimately not likely to translate, you are probably doing better than 60-70% of NHL scouts.

I personally don't find it a difficult task to separate, to be honest with you. And like I said above, I am confident in my own personal abilities to trust what I see. You don't need to agree, nor do the statistics you use need to support it as they are not always correct, either. We can agree to disagree.
 

Grind

Stomacheache AllStar
Jan 25, 2012
6,539
127
Manitoba
If Anderson had scored half as much this season, where would you rank him?

I know you trust your ranking. My point being that all pro scouts trust their ranking...And historically...it hasn't been much better then using only production...

Sorry to keepnharping on this but your a target audience for me. I'm very interested in trying to facilitate a bit of a shift in this type of thinking.

What would have to be shown to cause you to reconsider? What data do you need to see to consider that despite a player havinf these visible worts, you simply CAN'T produce like that without reasonable NHL talent...
 
Last edited:

Channelcat

Unhinged user
Feb 8, 2013
18,277
14,382
Canada
I like Paul Bittner at 25 on Craigs list, but he'll go higher I'm afraid. I think he's 14 on ISS. Seems to fit the Jet mold of big, fast and mean. Zacha another big skill guy who might fall to late 1st round.
 
Last edited:

Jetabre

Electric Ehlers
May 22, 2014
8,328
1,972
Winterpeg
Kylington the 6th ranked international skater. PICK HIM UP!

Connor, Konecny, Harkins and Svechnikov are all potentially in range for our first pick. Now if only Nashville and the Blackhawks can stop sucking and take the division crown, I'd be most grateful.

I was actually just thinking if we might go after Kylington if he's fallen out of favour like this. :laugh:

And I agree, we gave Nashville the chance to take back the division last night and they went and lost to Colorado. :shakehead
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad