Prospect Info: 2015 Leafs Board Prospect Ranking #9

[Mystifo]

Voting for Rinat Valiev. I like Lepsic and everything and think he is up there but I think what Valiev did this year proved he has the potential to be a good NHLer going forward. (Has size to boot!)

 

[WildcatMapleLeafs28]

Travis Dermott.

Add Toninato.

 

[ATBLeafsTyler]

Travis Dermott.

Add Toninato.

I don't know why people are wanting to add Toninato all of a sudden. There have been NCAA sophomores in previous years who have scored more points than he did this year and haven't amounted to quite much of anything at the pro level.

Don't even have him in my top 30 to be honest (31 or 32). Nolan Vesey is the more exciting NCAA prospect IMO.

 

[ChrisCall]

It's a good sign when there are so many players squashed into this 7-15 range that they could go in any order.

 

[NotSince67*]

I don't know why people are wanting to add Toninato all of a sudden. There have been NCAA sophomores in previous years who have scored more points than he did this year and haven't amounted to quite much of anything at the pro level.

Don't even have him in my top 30 to be honest (31 or 32). Nolan Vesey is the more exciting NCAA prospect IMO.

Perhaps if you are judging solely on points but Toninato has a pro-style game which is is transferable to that of a role player. He probably has more chance to be an effective pro.

 

[MJ65]

Dermott

 

[NotSince67*]

IMO when ranking prospects you've gotta have Harrington/Loov>Valiev/Dermott.

We honestly does even know how well Dermott and Valiev will be as professionals, where Loov and Harrington have established themselves as good AHLers and close to the NHL. It's not far off the hype/optimism surrounding prospects Blacker and Finn (and to a lesser extent Percy) coming out of junior to expose their shortcomings when introduced into a more skilled and structured environment in the professional ranks.

 

[Bullseye]

I don't know why people are wanting to add Toninato all of a sudden. There have been NCAA sophomores in previous years who have scored more points than he did this year and haven't amounted to quite much of anything at the pro level.

Don't even have him in my top 30 to be honest (31 or 32). Nolan Vesey is the more exciting NCAA prospect IMO.

Last time you posted it was #34.

 

[ATBLeafsTyler]

Last time you posted it was #34.

I knew it was in the 30's but I was too lazy to go back and check lol.

Posting from work.

 

[Community]

Gotta be one of Dermott/Harrington... Leipsic close behind.


It's funny, there's so much hype around Bracco, but the player picked ahead of him (Dermott) and behind him (Dzierkals) are barely getting any notice. Dermott is starting to now, but these two can't hold a torch to Bracco on these aboards.

Either way I'm excited by the fact that Leipsic had a great season and looks like a promising middle-6 player and he might not crack the top 10 prospects for the Leafs this year.

 

[Community]

IMO when ranking prospects you've gotta have Harrington/Loov>Valiev/Dermott.

We honestly does even know how well Dermott and Valiev will be as professionals, where Loov and Harrington have established themselves as good AHLers and close to the NHL. It's not far off the hype/optimism surrounding prospects Blacker and Finn (and to a lesser extent Percy) coming out of junior to expose their shortcomings when introduced into a more skilled and structured environment in the professional ranks.

That's like saying Nylander >> McDavid because he established himself as a good AHLer and McDavid hasn't yet.

Man, I know this response has been used a billion times, but it's true.. You can't just decide a player is better because they're further along their development. I would definitely trade Loov for Dermott if we didn't have him and I like Loov. It might end up being a bad move, but as of now it seems like Dermott is a better prospect.

 

[NotSince67*]

That's like saying Nylander >> McDavid because he established himself as a good AHLer and McDavid hasn't yet.

Man, I know this response has been used a billion times, but it's true.. You can't just decide a player is better because they're further along their development. I would definitely trade Loov for Dermott if we didn't have him and I like Loov. It might end up being a bad move, but as of now it seems like Dermott is a better prospect.

Yeah, except the problem with that statement is that there is clearly a gap in talent between the two in Nylander and McDavid, McDavid comes with an extensive pedigree and has shown himself to excel beyond his peer group and two age groups beyond him.

You can't make any real argument there's some sort of significant separation between the 4 defensemen I named in that respect. For me, Nylander is past Marner given their projection and skill level are similar, but one has NA pro experience and has excelled and the other isn't pedigreed past being a OHL standout and top-5 selection.

If you want to try to illustrate my case in terms of absolutes and remove all context of course it seems bizzare. It's like saying Leipsic>McDavid, but that's clearly not what I'm preaching. Development is a large factor in determining a prospects value, but nowhere do I say it's the only thing.

 

[Semantics]

Man, I know this response has been used a billion times, but it's true.. You can't just decide a player is better because they're further along their development. I would definitely trade Loov for Dermott if we didn't have him and I like Loov. It might end up being a bad move, but as of now it seems like Dermott is a better prospect.

Yeah, the way I look at it is simply: if each of these players were in this year's draft, where would I pick them?

Would I take a defenseman at #34 overall who will be in the AHL at age 23, but might be an injury call-up or make a bid for a bottom pairing NHL job next year just as he's turning 24, and won't likely ever be better than that? No, god no. Dermott is just so obviously a better pick there, and thus the better prospect.

Some of the rankings here are just bizarre; it seems a lot of people here believe that if Gauthier re-entered this year's draft he'd still get taken in the 1st round, or at least with one of the first three picks of the 2nd. It's either that or they think Hunter is an idiot and Dermott should have gone in the 3rd round.

Similar with Johnson, Bracco, and probably Percy. No doubt Percy would go in the 2nd round, because he was close to making the NHL, but probably not higher than #34. Bracco obviously at the end of the 2nd round. Gauthier and Johnson, they'd probably get picked in the 3rd round or lower.

Fact of the matter is that upside is a HUGE part of a prospect's value. Prospects who simply develop as expected or slightly better don't become more valuable just because they're closer to the NHL, quite the opposite because marginal NHL players are a dime a dozen. Once you get beyond the 1st round picks, if a player isn't dramatically exceeding expectations then his spot on our depth chart should fall precipitously in favor of guys who still have the upside. The philosophy that favors "safe" prospects like the Loovs, Gauthiers, Frattins, and D'Amigos because they're good bets to make the NHL is exactly what the new Leafs management are trying to get away from. It's a shame that this forum is still following the Nonis style of thinking when doing these rankings.

 

[NotSince67*]

Would I take a defenseman at #34 overall who will be in the AHL at age 23, but might be an injury call-up or make a bid for a bottom pairing NHL job next year just as he's turning 24, and won't likely ever be better than that? No, god no. Dermott is just so obviously a better pick there, and thus the better prospect..

That's one thing, but personally I feel Love has higher upside that that. I feel Dermott, Harrington, Valiev and Loov all have similar upside at second pairing defensemen. Serviceable and solid yet not guys who are going to shoulder a large portion of the load.

BTW when the season starts Loov will still be 22, as will Harrington.

 

[Semantics]

That's one thing, but personally I feel Love has higher upside that that. I feel Dermott, Harrington, Valiev and Loov all have similar upside at second pairing defensemen. Serviceable and solid yet not guys who are going to shoulder a large portion of the load.

Fair enough, but I think you need to take into account that he's four years removed from his first draft eligibility now. Dermott is much further along for his age than any of those other three were, and it's reflected in where he was drafted, and should be reflected in his prospect ranking. That should mean that he's either got more upside or is more likely to reach his upside. Loov's stock has increased a lot since initially going undrafted and then being picked in the 7th round, but not to the point that anyone would pick him #34 overall, IMHO.

 

[Marmoset]

Yeah, the way I look at it is simply: if each of these players were in this year's draft, where would I pick them?

Would I take a defenseman at #34 overall who will be in the AHL at age 23, but might be an injury call-up or make a bid for a bottom pairing NHL job next year just as he's turning 24, and won't likely ever be better than that? No, god no. Dermott is just so obviously a better pick there, and thus the better prospect.

Some of the rankings here are just bizarre; it seems a lot of people here believe that if Gauthier re-entered this year's draft he'd still get taken in the 1st round, or at least with one of the first three picks of the 2nd. It's either that or they think Hunter is an idiot and Dermott should have gone in the 3rd round.

Similar with Johnson, Bracco, and probably Percy. No doubt Percy would go in the 2nd round, because he was close to making the NHL, but probably not higher than #34. Bracco obviously at the end of the 2nd round. Gauthier and Johnson, they'd probably get picked in the 3rd round or lower.

Fact of the matter is that upside is a HUGE part of a prospect's value. Prospects who simply develop as expected or slightly better don't become more valuable just because they're closer to the NHL, quite the opposite because marginal NHL players are a dime a dozen. Once you get beyond the 1st round picks, if a player isn't dramatically exceeding expectations then his spot on our depth chart should fall precipitously in favor of guys who still have the upside. The philosophy that favors "safe" prospects like the Loovs, Gauthiers, Frattins, and D'Amigos because they're good bets to make the NHL is exactly what the new Leafs management are trying to get away from. It's a shame that this forum is still following the Nonis style of thinking when doing these rankings.

Thank you for summing up my feelings on this very well. This is why I've voted for Dermott something like four times in a row.

I still do not understand the Gauthier love. If he works out he's going to be a solid third-line centre, which would be great. I hope he does work out. But we have so many prospects with more potential than him, whether they realize that potential or not. And Gauthier is far from a guarantee to realize his potential.

 

[Leafidelity]

Dermott. Should have went in the last poll, but this is just for fun.

 

[Morgs]

Crazy to think our depth is good enough that only one of Leipsic, Harrington, Loov, Leivo, Finn and Verhaeghe can make it into our top 10..

Very impressed by the Shanagement.

 

[LeafsNation149]

add Korostelev, I expect him to go #13 but should at least be on the list

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

I went back to the 2010 prospect rankings Schenn did and it's interesting to see how things have worked out 5 years later.

Prospect Ranking #1 2010: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=798041

Prospect Ranking #29 2010: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=808389&highlight=

 

[ATBLeafsTyler]

Wow at the rankings from 2010. Boy did management ever draft like crap.

#1: Nazem Kadri
#2: Jerry D'Amigo - fringe NHLer, mostly AHL
#3: Keith Aulie - NHL/AHL
#4: Luca Caputi - Oskarshamn: Allsvenskan
#5: Brad Ross - Iserlohn Roosters, DEL
#6: Marcel Mueller - Hamburg Freezers, DEL
#7: Jesse Blacker - AHLer, occasional call-up
#8: Greg McKegg - Mostly AHL, still has SOME NHL potential
#9: Jussi Rynnas - Ak Bars Kazan, KHL
#10: Korbinian Holzer - 5/6 NHL d-man, if that
#11: James Reimer
#12: Juraj Mikus - HC Sparta Praha, CZE
#13: Sondre Olden - Brynas, SEL
#14: Kenny Ryan - AHLer
#15: Mikhail Stefanovich - Dizel Penza, VHL??????? Fail.
#16: Ben Scrivens - Looked good at one point, nothing more than a backup
#17: Matt Frattin
#18: Braydon Irwin - AHL/ECHLer
#19: Daniel Brodin - Djurgarden, SEL
#20: Dale Mitchell - Odense, DEN... Total fail
#21: Petter Granberg - Could be serviceable NHL dman, mostly AHL right now
#22: Simon Gysbers - Djurgarden, SEL
#23: Jerome Flaake - Hamburg Freezers, DEL
#24: Sam Carrick - Likely to be a 3rd/4th line NHLer
#25: Tyler Rueggsegger - Not even playing anymore
#26: Andrew MacWilliam - Didn't mind him. Could have been decent 5/6 pairing
#27: Jamie Devane - Plug, can't believe we got a 4th liner for him. I would've accepted a bag of pucks
#28: Robert Slaney - CIS (lol)

 

[Liminality]

I went back to the 2010 prospect rankings Schenn did and it's interesting to see how things have worked out 5 years later.

Prospect Ranking #1 2010: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=798041

Prospect Ranking #29 2010: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=808389&highlight=

I think even at the time most of those guys mainly projected as bottom 6 guys with a rare chance at top 6. Even then most of them didn't make it or barely made any impact at the NHL level.

Compare that to now, yikes.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

I think even at the time most of those guys mainly projected as bottom 6 guys with a rare chance at top 6. Even then most of them didn't make it or barely made any impact at the NHL level.

Compare that to now, yikes.

After the last regime I'm all for picking for skill. The "safe" picks we've gone with the last half-decade plus have been anything but.

 

[bobermay]

Found this table, may be interesting to update our prospects on a table like this

||||

#1​

|

F​

|

|

Mitch Marner​

|

81.22%​

#2​

|

F​

|

|

William Nylander​

|

97.50%​

#3​

|

F​

|

|

Kasperi Kapanen​

|

51.18%​

#4​

|

F​

|

|

Connor Brown​

|

80.00​

#5​

|

D​

|

|

Stuart Percy​

|

28.67​

#6​

|

D​

|

|

Frederick Gauthier​

|

29.64​

#7​

|

F​

|

|

Andreas Johnson​

|

32.43​

#8​

|

F​

|

|

Jeremy Bracco​

|

37.30​

#9​

|

D​

|

|

Travis Dermott​

|

??​

#10​

|

?​

||

​

#11​

|

?​

||

​

#12​

|

?​

||

​

#13​

|

?​

||

​

#14​

|

?​

||

​

#15​

|

?​

||

​

#16​

|

?​

||

​

#17​

|

?​

||

​

#18​

|

?​

||

​

#19​

|

?​

|

#20​

|

?​

|

Copied it outside of the quote if someone else wants to take charge with updating it:

||||

#1​

|

F​

|

|

Mitch Marner​

|

81.22%​

#2​

|

F​

|

|

William Nylander​

|

97.50%​

#3​

|

F​

|

|

Kasperi Kapanen​

|

51.18%​

#4​

|

F​

|

|

Connor Brown​

|

80.00​

#5​

|

D​

|

|

Stuart Percy​

|

28.67​

#6​

|

F​

|

|

Frederick Gauthier​

|

29.64​

#7​

|

F​

|

|

Andreas Johnson​

|

32.43​

#8​

|

F​

|

|

Jeremy Bracco​

|

37.30​

#9​

|

D​

|

|

Travis Dermott​

|

??​

#10​

|

?​

||

​

#11​

|

?​

||

​

#12​

|

?​

||

​

#13​

|

?​

||

​

#14​

|

?​

||

​

#15​

|

?​

||

​

#16​

|

?​

||

​

#17​

|

?​

||

​

#18​

|

?​

||

​

#19​

|

?​

|

#20​

|

?​

|

 

[Byron Bitz]

Add Nolan Vesey, hes got a very good draft plus one season under his belt which is more than we can say for some of the prospects on this list.