Remember, you have to look at this through the eyes of a 15 year-old girl; they're the ones who actually bother to text in.
I'm thinking Hayes, because of the "Dawchestah boy" narrative...except that he's been in the league for a couple of years. Since the lockout, here's the list:
05-06: Tim Thomas. First NHL year as a regular.
06-07: Tim Thomas. See above.
07-08: Milan Lucic. First NHL year.
08-09: David Krejci. Second real NHL year - split the last year in the AHL, and played 4 games the year before.
09-10: Tuukka Rask. First full NHL year as a backup, but really split the season with Thomas.
10-11: Brad Marchand. First year in the NHL.
11-12: Tyler Seguin. Second year in the NHL.
12-13: Dougie Hamilton. First year in the NHL.
13-14: Reilly Smith. Split NHL/AHL last year in Dallas. First year without AHL.
14-15: David Pastrnak. First year in NHL
Seems like there's a HEAVY bias towards rookies and/or second years. The exceptions were Tim Thomas' second year, Krejci, and Seguin - but both Krejci and Seguin were paired in their rookie years with another outstanding candidate (Lucic and Marchand, respectively.)
So, maybe not Hayes. There's also a bias against players who played in the NHL elsewhere - Smith is the closest exception. That would also heavily go against Beleskey - also the fact that expectations for Beleskey are high, so it's tough to go "above" them.
Spooner's not following a pattern either, since he's dipped in and out of the NHL the past two years.
Now that I think about it, it may be "none of the above". There could be some rookie I'm not aware of who just breaks out during camp this year, makes the team, and shines. Y'know, kind of like Pastrnak did. If that doesn't happen, and if Pasta has yet another great year, the default may be to give it to him again.