Prospect Info: 2014 Prospect Ranking Poll #3

[salsa man]

Give me a break, dude.

Vatanen just won the vote for #2 prospect, and you're pulling that?

I'm obviously exaggerating, but it does seem like quite a few people (not necessarily on this subforum) tend to overvalue unproven prospects with high potential. Take Drouin for example. Some people act like he's already a shoe-in for the HHOF, yet he hasn't played a game at the NHL level yet. Of course not everybody thinks like that, but a lot of people do. Too many people do.

 

[Gliff]

The team is better when Vatanen was on the ice last year. Allen is better, Getzlaf and Perry drive the play even more when he's out there. So yes, it is a resounding yes from 22 year old Vatanen last year. There was a really cool chart (I'll try to find it) that broke down our players possesion stats with Sami on the ice - everyone on the ice gets better when Sami was out there last year. That's resounding enough for me to pick him over a WHL defenseman who has seen ~10 games total of AHL action so far

Edit: Here it is: http://www.sportingnews.com/nhl/sto...layoffs?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Thank God we have advanced stats.

I agree the team is better with Vatanen on the ice, because he gives us puck moving ability on the 3rd pairing. This still doesn't address the fact that his upside is limited by his size and lack of ability to be a shutdown guy.

 

[Gliff]

Figures. Ask for evidence, I give it, then brush it aside as "I'm done with this".

lol

You're right, we should keep bickering in a thread that isn't even about Vatanen. Good idea.

 

[AngelDuck]

Thank God we have advanced stats.

I agree the team is better with Vatanen on the ice, because he gives us puck moving ability on the 3rd pairing. This still doesn't address the fact that his upside is limited by his size and lack of ability to be a shutdown guy.

So You don't believe shooting the puck at the other teams goal more when a player is on the ice has any correlation to the player being good at hockey? If you think you're getting a potential shutdown defender in Theodore, then lol, I just have no clue what to tell you. Vatanen pushes the play and keeps the puck in the other teams zone more than ours. That's good enough for me...the game is changing. That's the skillset you look for in a defender these days

 

[Sojourn]

The team is better when Vatanen was on the ice last year. Allen is better, Getzlaf and Perry drive the play even more when he's out there. So yes, it is a resounding yes from 22 year old Vatanen last year. There was a really cool chart (I'll try to find it) that broke down our players possesion stats with Sami on the ice - everyone on the ice gets better when Sami was out there last year. That's resounding enough for me to pick him over a WHL defenseman who has seen ~10 games total of AHL action so far

Edit: Here it is: http://www.sportingnews.com/nhl/sto...layoffs?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

You said there were questions about Shea's physical ability to handle players at the NHL level... I said that Sami's ability to do the same is still in question, at times. So, I'm a little curious what you're trying to argue here, because you're completely changing the discussion. Nothing you said here actually addresses my point.

Boudreau sheltered Sami last season, and he still had trouble at times against the bigger forwards. Sure, when the puck was on his stick, or the Ducks had possession, he was an effective player, but that wasn't what I was saying, and you haven't actually addressed what I did say.

Edit: Here's the problem, Angel... a sheltered 3rd pairing defenseman who occasionally has trouble against bigger forwards is already in a good situation. Adding on responsibilities, and giving him tougher match ups is just going to put a spotlight on the size disadvantage. You're the one who is arguing that Sami could have top pairing potential, so just how can he do that if he can't go up against players like Thornton or Getzlaf?

 

[AngelDuck]

You said there were questions about Shea's physical ability to handle players at the NHL level... I said that Sami's ability to do the same is still in question, at times. So, I'm a little curious what you're trying to argue here, because you're completely changing the discussion. Nothing you said here actually addresses my point.

Boudreau sheltered Sami last season, and he still had trouble at times against the bigger forwards. Sure, when the puck was on his stick, or the Ducks had possession, he was an effective player, but that wasn't what I was saying, and you haven't actually addressed what I did say.

What I'm addressing is that he doesn't need to be a physical presence against bigger forwards because his ability to drive possession greatly outweighs that negative of his. He can stand for some improvement in his own end...just like every young non-Lindholm/Fowler Ducks player.

 

[Sojourn]

What I'm addressing is that he doesn't need to be a physical presence against bigger forwards because his ability to drive possession greatly outweighs that negative of his. He can stand for some improvement in his own end...just like every young non-Lindholm/Fowler Ducks player.

You mean his ability to drive possession as a 3rd pairing defenseman... which is quite a bit different from being a top 4 guy, or a top pairing guy. This argument sounds an awful lot like Chicago fans who were arguing for Leddy.

 

[AngelDuck]

You mean his ability to drive possession as a 3rd pairing defenseman... which is quite a bit different from being a top 4 guy, or a top pairing guy. This argument sounds an awful lot like Chicago fans who were arguing for Leddy.

Yes, 3rd pairing. The opportunity he was given by the coach as a young defenseman. Still more impressive than anything Theodore has accomplished.

 

[Sojourn]

I think Theodore hype train seems a little excessive compared to the others. His point totals are impressive, but there's another 2013 draftee with a much better PPG in the WHL. He is tall, but it's not like he was seen as a great potential all-around guy who dropped at the draft.

To me, Vatanen and Karlsson win over Theodore because they have similar talent, but have also dominated against European men and the AHL. Ritchie seems to have more potential than Theodore too, so he might also rank above Shea.

Yeah, I'd agree. Theodore is an intriguing young prospect, but I'm not about to label top pairing potential on him, anymore than I am with Vatanen. And really, he(they) can still be a very good player for us without being at that level. Players like that are hard to come by, and even very good prospects can end up topping out as 3rd pairing defensemen, or #4 guys. The NHL is just a whole different animal.

 

[Sojourn]

Yes, 3rd pairing. The opportunity he was given by the coach as a young defenseman. Still more impressive than anything Theodore has accomplished.

And I'm not saying Theodore is better than Vatanen.

What I'm saying is that Sami still has some of the same concerns that you're placing on Theodore. As a 3rd pairing defenseman, Boudreau can use Sami in ideal situations, putting him out there against weaker competition, and making sure he isn't in key defensive situations. In other words, he can put him out there to move the puck, and create offense, which is where his strengths lie.

As a top 4 defenseman, that becomes much harder, and as a top pairing defenseman it becomes virtually impossible. The more responsibilities a player has, the more the cracks can become big gaping holes. All that stuff about driving possession, and making the players better, that's great and all, but the context is important. He's able to do that, in part, because Boudreau is smart enough to put him in those situations. The stats don't show that he has more potential as a top pairing guy than Theodore, or that his size isn't, or won't be, an issue. What they show is that he's an effective NHL player, when used in this fashion, and he absolutely is.

 

[Vinegar Strokes]

Karl. Him and Vatanen were easily replaceable for number 2.

 

[Gliff]

Yes, 3rd pairing. The opportunity he was given by the coach as a young defenseman. Still more impressive than anything Theodore has accomplished.

I'm the only one who is saying Theodore should be higher then Vatanen. I'm not saying Theodore has accomplished more then Vatnen at all. I'm purely saying that I have more faith in Theodore being able to develope his defensive game and get bigger to the point that he will be better at the age Vatanen is now and in the future.

Theodore's potential to me outweighs how impressive Vatanen has been on the 3rd pairing against the worst competition with the highest offensive zone starts out of all of our defensemen by over 4% more.

But, like I said before, moving past Theodore, Karlsson and Ritchie should be ahead of Vatanen also.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

I think Theodore hype train seems a little excessive compared to the others. His point totals are impressive, but there's another 2013 draftee with a much better PPG in the WHL. He is tall, but it's not like he was seen as a great potential all-around guy who dropped at the draft.

To me, Vatanen and Karlsson win over Theodore because they have similar talent, but have also dominated against European men and the AHL. Ritchie seems to have more potential than Theodore too, so he might also rank above Shea.

I think this board may occasionally view Theodore through a Fowler-Lindholm colored lens. But he's not them. It's also a bit ironic to me that some point to Vatanen's defensive shortcomings in choosing Theodore over him, when defense is the weakest part of Theodore's game.

 

[pesko]

People can overvalue young prospects because they rarely have seen them play and rely on second hand reports and hearsay in their assessment. Optimism bias is easier to form the less contact one has with the subject.

 

[Exit Dose]

Karlsson for me. Probably Andersen, next.

 

[Gliff]

Didn't Andersen age himself out?

 

[Exit Dose]

He's still listed among our prospects on the team page, so I'd assume not.

Edit: Nor is he listed as a graduate in the last top twenty done by the site.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Didn't Andersen age himself out?

It's in the small print on the first page. Basically he signed at 22 out of a European league, that gets him until 3 years from the date he signed the contract, or 45 pro games, whichever comes first. He should graduate this season before he ever ages out.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I went with Kerdiles! His game will translate faster to the NHL level than Karlsson. Both players are very good, it's just I think Kerdiles is in the Getzlaf/Perry mold and fits our system better. Of course, we can always make room for a playmaker like Karlsson! As for overall potential, I think they're both the same, just different type of game for both.

 

[Exit Dose]

They really aren't that different from each other.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

They really aren't that different from each other.

So why is there not a lot of Kerdiles love in the polls?

 

[Fighter]

Rakell for me.

 

[getzforfighting*]

Rakell

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

So why is there not a lot of Kerdiles love in the polls?

I like Karlsson, but there's a definite flavor of the month(year?) vibe for me. Not that he won't be good or anything, but I just don't see how he's favored overwhelmingly over Rakell, and I definitely don't see any difference rankings-wise between him and Kerdiles.

 

[Gliff]

I like Karlsson, but there's a definite flavor of the month(year?) vibe for me. Not that he won't be good or anything, but I just don't see how he's favored overwhelmingly over Rakell, and I definitely don't see any difference rankings-wise between him and Kerdiles.

I think Karlsson's offensive potential is miles ahead of Rakell. I've said it before, I dont think Rakell has any finish and I think it will prevent him from ever being a legit top 6 center. Maybe I'm wrong. It's fine though because Rakell's defensive game is perfect for a 3rd line guy.

Kerdiles may have similar potential to Karlsson but he hasnt been playing against men like Karlsson has. He gets the edge to me.