Prospect Info: 2014 Prospect Ranking Poll #3

[The Midnight Burrito]

From the last poll:Vatanen takes #2 with around 42% of the vote.


Each poll be open for 48 hours. If it's not close after 24 hours, I'll call it. If it is, it'll go the full 48. In the event of a tie after 48 hours, a 24-hour runoff will be held. The winner will get the open spot; the loser will go back into the pool, not get the next-lowest rank. The poll will go up to #25. Players are in the poll on the basis of HF's prospect criteria. Essentially, skaters with less than 65 games before the season of their 24th birthday, or goalies with less than 45 games before the season of their 24th birthday, are considered prospects. There are some nuances with respect to older-signed players, but I believe that applies only to Farragher and Andersen, who can remain a prospect for a bit yet.

Vote on players using whatever criteria you like. This isn't the readiness poll or the talent poll or the most-likely-to-be-best poll per se, it's just a survey of who we as Duck fans like.

Prior years results (that I could find):
2004-05 Lockout II Edition
2010 Edition
2011 Edition
2012 Edition
2013 Lockout III Edition
(if anyone can find other years, let me know and I'll add them)

year | rank | Prospect | year | rank | Prospect | year | rank | Prospect | change | year | rank | Prospect | change | year | rank | Prospect | change 2005 | 1 | Getzlaf | 2010 | 1 | Sbisa | 2011 | 1 | Etem | +5 | 2012 | 1 | Palmieri | +2 | 2013 | 1 | Gibson | +6
| 2 | Bryzgalov || 2 | Fowler || 2 | Holland | +2 || 2 | Vatanen | +2 || 2 | Lindholm | +3
| 3 | Perry || 3 | Gardiner || 3 | Palmieri | +2 || 3 | Etem | -2 || 3 | Silfverberg |n/a
| 4 | Smid || 4 | Holland || 4 | Vatanen | +3 || 4 | Holland | -2 || 4 | Etem | -1
| 5 | Holmqvist || 5 | Palmieri || 5 | REDACTED | +11 || 5 | Lindholm |n/a|| 5 | Rakell | +3
| 6 | Brent || 6 | Etem || 6 | DSP | +7 || 6 | DSP |0|| 6 | Holland | -2
| 7 | Kunitz || 7 | Vatanen || 7 | Gibson |n/a|| 7 | Gibson |0|| 7 | Vatanen | -5
| 8 | Popovic || 8 | Clark || 8 | Rakell |n/a|| 8 | Rakell |0|| 8 | Kerdiles | +1
| 9 | Smirnov || 9 | Mitera || 9 | Maroon |n/a|| 9 | Kerdiles |n/a|| 9 | Noesen |n/a
| 10 | S. O'Brien || 10 | Bonino || 10 | Bonino |0|| 10 | Karlsson | +4 || 10 | Karlsson |0
| 11 | Saunders || 11 | Deschamps || 11 | Clark | -3 || 11 | Andersen |n/a|| 11 | Theodore |n/a
| 12 | Smith || 12 | McMillan || 12 | Friberg |n/a|| 12 | Wagner | +6 || 12 | Andersen | -1
| 13 | Glenncross || 13 | DSP || 13 | Deschamps | -2 || 13 | Friberg | -1 || 13 | Smith-Pelly | -7
| 14 | Korsunov || 14 | Newton || 14 | Karlsson |n/a|| 14 | Clark | -3 || 14 | Sorensen |n/a
| 15 | Konopka || 15 | Bobkov || 15 | Bobkov |0|| 15 | Welinski | +5 || 15 | Roy | +2
| 16 | Martensson || 16 | REDACTED || 16 | Macenauer |n/a|| 16 | Maroon | -7 || 16 | Welinski | -1
| 17 | Foster || 17 | Pielmeier || 17 | Cramarossa |n/a|| 17 | Roy |n/a|| 17 | Wagner | -5
| 18 | Penner || 18 | Sharp || 18 | Wagner |n/a|| 18 | Bobkov | -3 || 18 | Laganiere |n/a
| 19 | Klubertanz || 19 | Heed || 19 | Schofield |n/a|| 19 | Lind | +2 || 19 | Friberg | -6
| 20 | Parenteau || 20 | Manson || 20 | Welinski |n/a|| 20 | Cramarossa | -3 || 20 | Thompson |n/a
| 21 | Perrault || 21 |N/A|| 21 | Lind |n/a|| 21 | A. O'Brien |n/a|| 21 | Sarault |n/a
| 22 |N/A|| 22 |N/A|| 22 | Newton | -8 || 22 | Heed | +3 || 22 | Cramarossa | -2
| 23 |N/A|| 23 |N/A|| 23 | Carle |n/a|| 23 | Caputi |n/a|| 23 | Bobkov | -5
| 24 |N/A|| 24 |N/A|| 24 | Perlini |n/a|| 24 | Cooper |n/a|| 24 |N/A
| 25 |N/A|| 25 |N/A|| 25 | Heed | -6 || 25 | Manson |NR|| 25 |N/A

Notable Graduates:
DSP
Etem
Lindholm
Silfverberg

This year's results:

Rank | Prospect | yearly change | overall change 1 | Gibson |0| +6 (since 2011)
2 | Vatanen | +5 | +5 (since 2010)

Click to read more...

 

[Gliff]

Literally blown away Vatanen got #2. Must have been a Finland invasion. What did he do last year that made him just 5 spots in our rankings? He arguably had a better year last year in the AHL then splitting his time this year. Whereas Theodore and Karlsson had huge years.

Theodore
Richie
Karlsson

Those 3 have the highest upside. Any of them are ok with me.

 

[DaGeneral]

Literally blown away Vatanen got #2. Must have been a Finland invasion. What did he do last year that made him just 5 spots in our rankings? He arguably had a better year last year in the AHL then splitting his time this year. Whereas Theodore and Karlsson had huge years.

Theodore
Richie
Karlsson

Those 3 have the highest upside. Any of them are ok with me.

Of the 5 spots he jumped.. 3 of them were considered to have "graduated."

Not sure how Theo is a better prospect than Vats, he might have higher upside.. but as of right now, he's not the better prospect. Karlsson is too much of an unknown for most people just cause he hasn't played in A much.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Yeah, I wouldn't call a big WHL year equal to a big AHL year. Plus, Vatanen more or less established himself this year. Theodore is years away from that, if he ever does.

On Karlsson though, he looked great. He looked like he didn't belong in the AHL at all. That's why it was a tossup between those two for me.

 

[Goose of Reason]

It all comes down to a vote of upside vs. readiness to make the team for Vatanen. Having him on the 3rd pairing really helped us get the puck down the ice, so people were voting based on him about to make an impact for the team, whereas Theodore isn't there yet and imo Rakell and Karlsson wouldn't make the impact that Vatanen would next season...always willing to be surprised though

I'm voting Ritchie here though, just for his sheer beastly upside.

 

[AngelDuck]

Literally blown away Vatanen got #2. Must have been a Finland invasion. What did he do last year that made him just 5 spots in our rankings? He arguably had a better year last year in the AHL then splitting his time this year. Whereas Theodore and Karlsson had huge years.

Theodore
Richie
Karlsson

Those 3 have the highest upside. Any of them are ok with me.

I'm not sure why you think anyone would have voted for Theodore over Vatanen. I get it, he's got bigger upside (maybe), but he hasn't even shown he can defend AHL players yet. He's got a significantly higher bust possibility than Sami right now, who at worst looks like a 35-40 point OFD in the NHL

 

[TheJoeMan]

I'm not sure why you think anyone would have voted for Theodore over Vatanen. I get it, he's got bigger upside (maybe), but he hasn't even shown he can defend AHL players yet. He's got a significantly higher bust possibility than Sami right now, who at worst looks like a 35-40 point OFD in the NHL

Agreed. A lot of teenagers tear up the WHL and can't translate that to th NHL. Not saying Theodore won't but he has some proving to do. Vatanen on the other hand has already made an impact at this level so we have a much better idea of Vatanen's potential. But then again I don't consider him a prospect anymore but regardless if you're comparing him and Theodore Sami is definitely higher.

 

[JabbaJabba]

Literally blown away Vatanen got #2. Must have been a Finland invasion. What did he do last year that made him just 5 spots in our rankings? He arguably had a better year last year in the AHL then splitting his time this year. Whereas Theodore and Karlsson had huge years.

Theodore
Richie
Karlsson

Those 3 have the highest upside. Any of them are ok with me.

Vatanen was 2nd in 2012. It's even more mind blowing that last summer he was only 7th. And even then we ranked him above Theodore and Karlsson. So I doubt an invasion of Finnish voters affected this year.

Voted for Richie again. I got the new toy syndrome.

 

[salsa man]

I'm not really a fan of The Who, so I went with Karlsson.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

Vatanen was 2nd in 2012. It's even more mind blowing that last summer he was only 7th. And even then we ranked him above Theodore and Karlsson. So I doubt an invasion of Finnish voters affected this year.

Voted for Richie again. I got the new toy syndrome.

Yeah, I don't how you can question Vatanen for jumping up 5 spots and have little issue with Karlsson jumping up 7-9. No slight on Karlsson, but that's just the way it goes. Also worth mentioning that Vatanen leapfrogged only one player, a guy who's getting no love in these polls for no real reason.

Anyway, voted Ritchie. IMO easily the best potential of everyone left and great chance of panning out into at least a complimentary player.

 

[salsa man]

I'm not sure why you think anyone would have voted for Theodore over Vatanen. I get it, he's got bigger upside (maybe), but he hasn't even shown he can defend AHL players yet. He's got a significantly higher bust possibility than Sami right now, who at worst looks like a 35-40 point OFD in the NHL

People on HF seem to only value potential. I guarantee you 9 out of 10 posters would prefer a prospect rated as a 9.0D compared to an 8.0A.

 

[mightyquack]

Karlsson again.

People on HF seem to only value potential. I guarantee you 9 out of 10 posters would prefer a prospect rated as a 9.0D compared to an 8.0A.

dat hyperbole.

 

[Static]

Karlsson again

 

[Sojourn]

Literally blown away Vatanen got #2. Must have been a Finland invasion. What did he do last year that made him just 5 spots in our rankings? He arguably had a better year last year in the AHL then splitting his time this year. Whereas Theodore and Karlsson had huge years.

Theodore
Richie
Karlsson

Those 3 have the highest upside. Any of them are ok with me.

Theodore had a huge year in the CHL. That's a little different vs. Sami's year in the AHL and the NHL. I have zero issues with seeing Vatanen ahead of Theodore right now, even though I feel Theodore has more upside.

Karlsson is another matter. He was playing pro hockey in Sweden, and the few games I saw in the AHL he looked ridiculously good. I really feel he's the better prospect.

Something else to be said for Sami is that he's one of the older prospects. He's 23 now, and he has 56 NHL games under his belt. If I'm being honest, I don't think he should even be in the poll. I tend to think that Sami is getting a lot of the votes because of what he's been able to show in the NHL, and that's an advantage the other prospects just don't have.

I try to balance potential with NHL readiness, but everyone votes their own way. Some are going to value NHL readiness more, others are going to look just at potential, and I'm sure others try to do what I do.

 

[Sojourn]

People on HF seem to only value potential. I guarantee you 9 out of 10 posters would prefer a prospect rated as a 9.0D compared to an 8.0A.

Give me a break, dude.

Vatanen just won the vote for #2 prospect, and you're pulling that?

 

[Gliff]

Of the 5 spots he jumped.. 3 of them were considered to have "graduated."

Not sure how Theo is a better prospect than Vats, he might have higher upside.. but as of right now, he's not the better prospect. Karlsson is too much of an unknown for most people just cause he hasn't played in A much.

This isn't comparing a potential top pairing guy to a top pairing guy. Vatanen is a 24 year old that is nothing more then a 3rd pairing defender right now. I'm not saying he has reached his peak but it is very possible he is nearing it. Do you think Vatanen has top pairing potential? I don't. Theodore does. He has all the offensive potential and skating ability that Vatanen has and far more potential in his defensive side.

Even if we ignore Theodore, that still leaves Karlsson and Ritchie that should at the very least be competing with Vatanen not getting less votes combined then Vatanen alone.

 

[AngelDuck]

You should probably get the facts straight. Vatanen just turned 23. Theodore top pairing potential? Doubt it. It's possible, but it's also possible for Vatanen.

You should consider that at Theodore's age, Vatanen was the best defenseman in Finland. Classic bias against small players. Bigger guy has more defensive potential because he's....BIGGER!

Theodore also has some questions about his physical ability to play against AHL and NHL forwards...something Vatanen has already answered.

 

[gratefulyours]

said it in another thread,

people around here are way to high on vats. he seems like a guy who will top at a #4 to me. if we are really lucky #3.

i just don't see him being much better than he is now, which is a 3rd pairing pp specialist.

voted rakell for 3.

there are playeres with more upside for sure. i just feel he is going to be a strong two way player for many years once he breaks in.

 

[Gliff]

You should probably get the facts straight. Vatanen just turned 23. Theodore top pairing potential? Doubt it. It's possible, but it's also possible for Vatanen.

You should consider that at Theodore's age, Vatanen was the best defenseman in Finland. Classic bias against small players. Bigger guy has more defensive potential because he's....BIGGER!

Theodore also has some questions about his physical ability to play against AHL and NHL forwards...something Vatanen has already answered.

I meant 23. I mistyped 24. You really think he could be a top pairing defender?.....

You can hate the bias against smaller players, but it's real and smaller players will always be at a disadvantage. Please tell me how many top pairing defensemen are 5'10 or shorter.... While you go do that I'll go find all the top pairing defenders that are 6'1 or taller. It should take about the same amount of time since you will have such a hard time finding any and I'll be going through 90% of the defensemen in the NHL.

Vatanen is good at what he is. He is a very good 3rd pairing offensive defender. I just doubt he will be any more then what he is now. he is never gonna be able to act as a shutdown guy. He will never be able to be a PKer. There's nothing wrong with that. I just value someone who has potential do all of that. You can teach physical play or how to be a shutdown guy. You can't teach size.

 

[Sojourn]

You should probably get the facts straight. Vatanen just turned 23. Theodore top pairing potential? Doubt it. It's possible, but it's also possible for Vatanen.

You should consider that at Theodore's age, Vatanen was the best defenseman in Finland. Classic bias against small players. Bigger guy has more defensive potential because he's....BIGGER!

Theodore also has some questions about his physical ability to play against AHL and NHL forwards...something Vatanen has already answered.

Except the answer isn't a resounding yes with Sami. He had issues at times with playing against bigger guys, and the more responsibility he's given the more likely that issue gets exposed.

Size does matter in hockey. There's just no getting around that. Players can get around it, or try to make it less of an issue, but it's always something they have to battle with. So, yes, if one were to argue that Theodore and Vatanen had similar ability, but one was bigger, I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say the bigger one could be better.

As it is, Sami has 4 years on Theodore. Sami just turned 23, and Shea is a few weeks from 19. If we were drafting both of them right now, knowing what we know, I'd take Theodore over Sami. Sami would be a safe pick right now, but I'd take the chance that Theodore will end up the better player. Edit: Of course, I'd do this knowing we have Fowler and Lindholm, so there is definitely some hindsight involved.

 

[AngelDuck]

I meant 23. I mistyped 24. You really think he could be a top pairing defender?.....

You can hate the bias against smaller players, but it's real and smaller players will always be at a disadvantage. Please tell me how many top pairing defensemen are 5'10 or shorter.... While you go do that I'll go find all the top pairing defenders that are 6'1 or taller. It should take about the same amount of time since you will have such a hard time finding any and I'll be going through 90% of the defensemen in the NHL.

Vatanen is good at what he is. He is a very good 3rd pairing offensive defender.

Since you seem to think he's maxed out as a "very good 3rd pairing defender", I'll try and break it down in to terms even you can understand:

Lubomir Visnovsky: listed at 5'10 197 pounds
Lubo broke into the NHL at age 24 and didn't score more than 40 points until he really broke out at age 29 (!!!) and scored 67 points. The next year at age 30 he scored 58 points. We all know what he did in his mid-30s as a Duck (68 point campaign in 2010-2011 - 4th in the Norris voting). I think we can all agree Lubo was a top pairing defenseman at many points in his career, but it took him until age 29 to get there.

Brian Rafalski: Listed at 5'10 194 pounds
Broke into the NHL at age 26. Didn't score more than 40 points until he scored 52 at age 27. Went on to become a #1 defenseman for the next 10 years and won multiple cups.

Kimmo Timonen: Listed at 5'10 194 pounds
Broke into the NHL at 23. Didn't score more than 40 points until his age 26 season. Didn't score more than 50 points until his age 30 season. Went on to be a top pairing defenseman for about a decade in the NHL.

So, as you can see, Sami is actually ahead of the curve when it comes to defenseman development. He broke in at 21. Prospect progression isn't linear. Some guys take longer, some guys develop faster. You like to put a ceiling on Vatanen because he's 23 and your ******** about him being put on the 3rd pairing. How about we give him until his mid-20s before we put the ceiling on him? I'm sure the Devils, Predators, and Kings are glad they did that with Rafalski, Timonen, and Lubo.

 

[AngelDuck]

Except the answer isn't a resounding yes with Sami. He had issues at times with playing against bigger guys, and the more responsibility he's given the more likely that issue gets exposed.

Size does matter in hockey. There's just no getting around that. Players can get around it, or try to make it less of an issue, but it's always something they have to battle with. So, yes, if one were to argue that Theodore and Vatanen had similar ability, but one was bigger, I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say the bigger one could be better.

As it is, Sami has 4 years on Theodore. Sami just turned 23, and Shea is a few weeks from 19. If we were drafting both of them right now, knowing what we know, I'd take Theodore over Sami. Sami would be a safe pick right now, but I'd take the chance that Theodore will end up the better player.

The team is better when Vatanen was on the ice last year. Allen is better, Getzlaf and Perry drive the play even more when he's out there. So yes, it is a resounding yes from 22 year old Vatanen last year. There was a really cool chart (I'll try to find it) that broke down our players possesion stats with Sami on the ice - everyone on the ice gets better when Sami was out there last year. That's resounding enough for me to pick him over a WHL defenseman who has seen ~10 games total of AHL action so far

Edit: Here it is: http://www.sportingnews.com/nhl/sto...layoffs?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

[Gliff]

Since you seem to think he's maxed out as a "very good 3rd pairing defender", I'll try and break it down in to terms even you can understand:

Lubomir Visnovsky: listed at 5'10 197 pounds
Lubo broke into the NHL at age 24 and didn't score more than 40 points until he really broke out at age 29 (!!!) and scored 67 points. The next year at age 30 he scored 58 points. We all know what he did in his mid-30s as a Duck (68 point campaign in 2010-2011 - 4th in the Norris voting). I think we can all agree Lubo was a top pairing defenseman at many points in his career, but it took him until age 29 to get there.

Brian Rafalski: Listed at 5'10 194 pounds
Broke into the NHL at age 26. Didn't score more than 40 points until he scored 52 at age 27. Went on to become a #1 defenseman for the next 10 years and won multiple cups.

Kimmo Timonen: Listed at 5'10 194 pounds
Broke into the NHL at 23. Didn't score more than 40 points until his age 26 season. Didn't score more than 50 points until his age 30 season. Went on to be a top pairing defenseman for about a decade in the NHL.

So, as you can see, Sami is actually ahead of the curve when it comes to defenseman development. He broke in at 21. Prospect progression isn't linear. Some guys take longer, some guys develop faster. You like to put a ceiling on Vatanen because he's 23 and your ******** about him being put on the 3rd pairing. How about we give him until his mid-20s before we put the ceiling on him? I'm sure the Devils, Predators, and Kings are glad they did that with Rafalski, Timonen, and Lubo.

You just named the only 3 guys in the last decade that are small top pairing defenders. Like I said before, I could name a TON of others that have the size advantage. It;s just a fact of this game. A defender of Vatanen's size is always going to be a longshot.

Anyways, I'm done with this. It's just my opinion. There are still 2 other guys I think are clearly a better choice then Vatanen for the #2 spot.

 

[AngelDuck]

You just named the only 3 guys in the last decade that are small top pairing defenders. Like I said before, I could name a TON of others that have the size advantage. It;s just a fact of this game. A defender of Vatanen's size is always going to be a longshot.

Anyways, I'm done with this. It's just my opinion. There are still 2 other guys I think are clearly a better choice then Vatanen.

Figures. Ask for evidence, I give it, then brush it aside as "I'm done with this".

lol

 

[snarktacular]

I think Theodore hype train seems a little excessive compared to the others. His point totals are impressive, but there's another 2013 draftee with a much better PPG in the WHL. He is tall, but it's not like he was seen as a great potential all-around guy who dropped at the draft.

To me, Vatanen and Karlsson win over Theodore because they have similar talent, but have also dominated against European men and the AHL. Ritchie seems to have more potential than Theodore too, so he might also rank above Shea.