Pre-Game Talk: 2014 NHL Entry Draft (for non-6th overall pick discussion) - Part IX

[Taelin]

Rankings

Bob McKenzie's Mid-Season Rankings (January): http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=9593
Bob McKenzie's Draft Lottery Top 12 (April): http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=117185
ISS Rankings (April): http://www.isshockey.com/iss-top-30/
McKeen's top 30: http://www.mckeenshockey.com/draft/
Hockey Prospect's February: http://www.hockeyprospect.com/2014-nhl-draft-rankings-february-top-60-nhl-prospects/
Craig Button's List (March): http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=49649
Central Scouting's Final Rankings (March): http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=712854

Key Dates

Draft Lottery: April 15, 2014
NHL Combine: May 26-30, 2014
NHL Draft Day(s): June 27-28, 2014

Picks Available

1st Round - 6th Overall
2nd Round - 36th Overall
3rd Round - 66th Overall
5th Round - 126th Overall
6th Round - 156th Overall
7th Round -186th Overall

**4th Round Pick traded for Welsh & Dalpe

Past Draft threads: One; Two; Three; Four; Five; Six;
Seven; Eight
​

Click to read more...

 

[canucks52]

looks like islanders keeping there pick, was hoping they would give it up to buffalo thinking that buffalo might have gone a bit off the board at 5 and take someone like ehlers/nylander since they already got a a quality player at 2 and could afford to take the risk.

anyways if none of the top 5 fall hoping for one of ehlers/nylander (nylander preferably) but would be okay with Virtanen or Ritchie

 

[Canucks LB]

Nylander, Please linden

 

[Canucks LB]

Can we get another poll question on Who to choose?. Should be interesting who people want now.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

What bugs me about Virtanen (aside from people calling him tough, which I think is not correct) is that his production in playoffs and important games has been pretty meh.

Lots of posters write this off to injury or illness (now has to have shoulder surgery), but these they right off as minor... so people write this all off to bad luck.

World Under 18's he had a promising start and finished 3 goals/6 points in 7 games... which is meh. Doesn't scream top 10 pick to me.

There was a comparison to Anthony Mantha in the other thread...

Difference I see is that Mantha has 31 goals and 45 points in 35 playoff games... Virtanen has 3 goals and 10 points in 26 playoff games. Mantha also had 5 goals and 11 points in 7 world under 20 games (though he did blow hard in the under 18s on his draft year, but again that was after a really solid QMJHL playoff run).

Don't get me wrong I *like* Virtanen... but I think the comparisons with guys like Perry are silly.

 

[Nuckles]

Can we get another poll question on Who to choose?. Should be interesting who people want now.

Maybe wait until after the combine. That way when we disagree with someone's opinion we can say "He can't even lift, bro."

 

[y2kcanucks]

Nylander, Please linden

Why are you so set on Nylander? I really hope Linden avoids him and I'm optimistic by the fact that Linden did not name Nylander as one of the players they're looking at. I want to avoid him.

 

[Taelin]

I'll put one up now.

EDIT: Actually, let's just leave 6th overall specific talk in that thread.

 

[Canucks LB]

Why are you so set on Nylander? I really hope Linden avoids him and I'm optimistic by the fact that Linden did not name Nylander as one of the players they're looking at. I want to avoid him.

Maybe because he might have the best hands I have seen in a draft pick in the last 5 years.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Maybe because he might have the best hands I have seen in a draft pick in the last 5 years.

I disagree vehemently with that assessment, though I'm not saying he has bad hands. I just think a player needs to be more than someone who has great hands. In fact, if we were looking at just a players hands why aren't we talking about Josh Ho-Sang?

 

[Canucks LB]

I disagree vehemently with that assessment, though I'm not saying he has bad hands. I just think a player needs to be more than someone who has great hands. In fact, if we were looking at just a players hands why aren't we talking about Josh Ho-Sang?

People have been talking about josh Ho-sang actually, Not as top as 6, but in the 1st round for sure.

 

[y2kcanucks]

People have been talking about josh Ho-sang actually, Not as top as 6, but in the 1st round for sure.

1st round sure, like late 1st round. I wouldn't be upset with Nylander in the last 1st round either. But 6th overall? No thank you. Hell, I wouldn't even take Nylander top 10.

 

[Taelin]

Keep 6th overall specific talk in its respective thread, so we don't clog up talk about the other rounds here.

 

[PhilMick]

What bugs me about Virtanen (aside from people calling him tough, which I think is not correct) is that his production in playoffs and important games has been pretty meh.

Lots of posters write this off to injury or illness (now has to have shoulder surgery), but these they right off as minor... so people write this all off to bad luck.

World Under 18's he had a promising start and finished 3 goals/6 points in 7 games... which is meh. Doesn't scream top 10 pick to me.

There was a comparison to Anthony Mantha in the other thread...

Difference I see is that Mantha has 31 goals and 45 points in 35 playoff games... Virtanen has 3 goals and 10 points in 26 playoff games. Mantha also had 5 goals and 11 points in 7 world under 20 games (though he did blow hard in the under 18s on his draft year, but again that was after a really solid QMJHL playoff run).

Don't get me wrong I *like* Virtanen... but I think the comparisons with guys like Perry are silly.

Ok well that's not fair for a few reasons. Throw out Mantha's draft+1 playoff year so we're comparing apples to apples and you've got:
Mantha: 16 pts in 13 games
Virtanen: 10 pts in 21 games where it's been well documented that in this year's 6 game series he had strep throat and a shoulder requiring surgery. Although the shoulder's not much of an excuse considering his good U18s.

I won't pretend to know what kind of a role Mantha had on Val D'or in his draft-1 year but Jake was definitely in a reduced role in his, Calgary was riding Brassart/Sylvester/Macek the whole way.

Also, a comparison to Mantha is absurd anyway. Totally different players. Virtanen is a predatory player, always looking to light someone up. Mantha has a fauxhawk. I should have led with that.

 

[arsmaster*]

What bugs me about Virtanen (aside from people calling him tough, which I think is not correct) is that his production in playoffs and important games has been pretty meh.

Lots of posters write this off to injury or illness (now has to have shoulder surgery), but these they right off as minor... so people write this all off to bad luck.

World Under 18's he had a promising start and finished 3 goals/6 points in 7 games... which is meh. Doesn't scream top 10 pick to me.

There was a comparison to Anthony Mantha in the other thread...

Difference I see is that Mantha has 31 goals and 45 points in 35 playoff games... Virtanen has 3 goals and 10 points in 26 playoff games. Mantha also had 5 goals and 11 points in 7 world under 20 games (though he did blow hard in the under 18s on his draft year, but again that was after a really solid QMJHL playoff run).

Don't get me wrong I *like* Virtanen... but I think the comparisons with guys like Perry are silly.

I guess you missed the shoulder surgery?

Mantha is/was as old as possible leading up to his draft. He is almost 2 years older than Virtanen.

Throwing virtanen's 16 year old season into the playoff scoring debate is silly.

Throw in Mantha's 16 year old season. Oh yeah, you can't. He want even playing major junior.

Mantha didn't blow hard at the U18 in his draft year either. He was too old in his draft year. It was the year before his draft.

He also put up gravy points against Germany to pad his u20 stats.

When measuring mantha and virtanen there are significant contextual issues that need to be mentioned, as you can see throwing out the stats you did shows nothing.

How I like to measure kids especially top prospects like these two is what they've done vs their peers. Virtanen was the best forward for pacific and the u17 and the best Canadian forward at the u18.

 

[Canucks LB]

Josh Ho-sang actually would not be such a bad pick if we do get a late 1st, If we do get him, We would need to take a richie type, then a Ho-sang type. Get a mix of both

 

[arsmaster*]

Josh Ho-Sang is going yo get drafted a lot higher than the lists tell you IMO. Should be a 15ish guy.

 

[PZA*]

Kyle Woodlief - Chief Scout of Red Line Report on Oilers Now - May 22, 2014

On Nylander:
- ranked 11th by red line
- unbeliveably skilled
- only reason not in top 10 is because he is a Diva (calls him coddled)
- his Dad hasn't done him any favours
- complains about his attitude

Interesting...

 

[Nuckles]

Keep 6th overall specific talk in its respective thread, so we don't clog up talk about the other rounds here.

Can we still talk about other potential 1st round picks here in case we acquire one?

 

[Taelin]

Can we still talk about other potential 1st round picks here in case we acquire one?

That's fine too.

 

[CanaFan]

What bugs me about Virtanen (aside from people calling him tough, which I think is not correct) is that his production in playoffs and important games has been pretty meh.

Lots of posters write this off to injury or illness (now has to have shoulder surgery), but these they right off as minor... so people write this all off to bad luck.

World Under 18's he had a promising start and finished 3 goals/6 points in 7 games... which is meh. Doesn't scream top 10 pick to me.

There was a comparison to Anthony Mantha in the other thread...

Difference I see is that Mantha has 31 goals and 45 points in 35 playoff games... Virtanen has 3 goals and 10 points in 26 playoff games. Mantha also had 5 goals and 11 points in 7 world under 20 games (though he did blow hard in the under 18s on his draft year, but again that was after a really solid QMJHL playoff run).

Don't get me wrong I *like* Virtanen... but I think the comparisons with guys like Perry are silly.

You should probably factor in the fairly large age disparity between the two players, which is nearly 2 full years.

Jake Virtanen's playoffs
Born Aug 17, 1996

~15 years, 8 months - 5 games or 19% of his total playoff games played - 0 pts in 5 games
~16 years, 8 months - 15 games or 58% of games - 6 pts in 15 games
~17 years, 8 months - 6 games or 23% of games - 4 pts in 6 games

Anthony Mantha's playoffs
Born Sep 16, 1994

~16 years, 7 months - 0 games
~17 years, 7 months - 4 games or 11% of his total playoff games played - 4 pts in 4 games
~18 years, 7 months - 9 games or 24% of games - 12 pts in 9 games
~19 years, 7 months - 24 games or 65% of games - 38 pts in 24 games

So Mantha has played 89% of his playoff games at an older age (18 years, 7 months) than Virtanen is TODAY (17 years, 8 months) and the biggest source of his playoffs has been this season where he is just a few months shy of being 20. The closest comparable season for the two players is Virtanen's current year (4pts in 6 games) and Mantha's first playoffs (4pts in 4 games).

IMO a statistical comparison is really not worth making.

*Edit: Just saw the other responses to the original post. Guess I'm not adding anything new but oh well ...

 

[PhilMick]

Josh Ho-Sang is going I get drafted a lot higher than the lists tell you IMO. Should be a 15ish guy.

arsmaster loves him some Ho-Sang!

 

[arsmaster*]

arsmaster loves him some Ho-Sang!

He's in the group with the similar players. Seeing his game improve and the maturing that seemed to become evident when Rychel was moved makes him all the more enticing.

Sure he's got some "junior" to his game. Those that lay that claim are often the ones who gravitate to ehlers who IMO plays a game that is less likely to work in the pros than Josh's.

 

[luongo321]

What do you guys think it would take to get 1st overall? Kesler +?

 

[Nuckles]

What do you guys think it would take to get 1st overall? Kesler +?

Tallon said the latest he'd trade back in the draft is ~7-10th overall, and they'd want a young roster player who can help them now as well. So I'd say Tanev + 6th overall to get the 1st.